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Old 01-22-2023, 09:36 AM   #1
tap2390
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Default Statistical analysis of the Mavs season so far

This is a cross post from my post on Reddit. All stats before Miami game.

More than halfway through the season, I figured it's a good time to take a look at the stats to see how they say the Mavs are performing. All stats from nba.com and basketball-reference.com. I prefer using adjusted stats to account for the Mavs slow pace.

Summary/ Takeaways

As you may already know, we are a very Luka-centric team. Our need (and his corresponding ability) to carry our roster can not be overstated. He is left on an island (iso possession) quite a bit, yet despite everyone and their mothers knowing it's coming, he is extremely efficient when driving the ball or running the pick and roll.

Despite being an average shot making team, we have a high offensive rating and EFG% for two reasons 1) we take a lot of threes (especially open ones); and 2) we shoot a lot of free throws.

While we are great in the pick and roll, isolation, and generating open threes in the half-court set, we are absolutely horrendous at creating easy shots otherwise. We don't cut to the basket, grab offensive rebounds, generate turnovers, get out in transition, or get to the rim. Our average FGA distance is the 2nd highest in the league.

We are pretty good defending the pick and roll and three point line. Unfortunately we suck at everything else. We especially struggle to defend iso plays and spot up shots. This seems to indicate to me that our defensive rotations are slow. I wouldn't panic too much as our three best defenders have been in and out, but we certainly miss them.

We need Josh Green to develop. He needs to start and play alongside Luka. He gets out in transition 27.6% of the time (15th highest in the league), and he's extremely efficient (1.32 PPP). He's also been our most efficient spot up shooter (1.36 PPP). Finally, he has the 8th best DRTG in the league. He should be untouchable. He can be our version of OG Anunoby if we actually develop him.
My guard trade targets are Immanuel Quickley, Hamidou Diallo, Alex Caruso and TJ McConnell. All four guys are excellent point of attack defenders who would benefit a lot from playing next to Luka on offense. I like OG, but think he would cost too much.

My forward trade targets are Chris Boucher, Caleb Martin, and Kenrich Williams. Notably absent is Bojan. I came away from this exercise convinced we need a defender/ rebounder first who can help on offense with a blue collar approach to transition and cutting. Bojan is a luxury that we can't afford.
My center trade targets are Mitchell Robinson and Daniel Gafford. Both are excellent rebounders and should be relatively available/ cheap when compared to someone like Jakob Poeltl.

I think AJ Lawson needs some burn. In limited minutes he's shown defensive ability that we need, and the stats bear that out.


Favorite Potential Deal

Powell/ Bull/ Pick(s) for Mitchell Robinson/ Immanuel Quickley --> Unfortunately I don't think Cuban would deal with the Knicks, but I think this would address a lot of our needs while giving the Knicks a coach-favorite, some cap flexibility, and some draft capital.


Offense

47.2% FG (17th)
35.9% 3P (15th)
27 FTA Per Game (1st)
74.4% FT% (27th)
56.0% Effective Field Goal (6th)
11.7% Turnover Rate (5th)
.317 Free Throw Attempt Rate (1st)
96.1 Pace (29th)
115.7 Offensive Rating (5th)
23.1% Offensive Rebounding% (29th)
15.7 Feet Average Distance Field Goal Attempt (2nd highest)
49.3% of FGA that are 3PA (1st)
43.7% of 2PA that are assisted (29th)
77.9% of 3PA that are assisted (26th)
22.3% of FGA that are layups (29th)
26.7% of 3PA that are from the corner (4th)
40.3% 3P% on 3PA that are from the corner (8th)
12.6% of offensive plays are isolations (1st)
1.02 points per iso possession (5th)
13.8% of offensive plays are in transition (28th)
1.08 points per transition possession (28th)
15.7% of offensive plays are pick and rolls where the ball handler keeps the ball (21st)
1.04 points per P&R play where ball handlers keeps the ball (1st)
7.0% of offensive plays are pick and rolls where the roll man gets the ball (5th)
1.35 points per P&R play where the roll man gets the ball (1st)
26.3% of offensive plays are spot up shots (3rd)
1.07 points per spot up shot (7th)
4.3% of offensive plays are cuts (30th)
1.31 points per cut (13th)
3.0% of offensive plays are putbacks (30th)
44.3 drives per game (21st)
56.2% FG on drives (1st)
3.98 average player MPH (30th)
20.0 wide open 3PA a game (closest defender 6+ ft away) (4th)
39.3% on wide open 3PA (10th)
17.7 open 3PA a game (closest defender 4-6 ft away) (2nd)
33.2% on open 3PA (22nd)
11.2% of FGA very late in shot clock (0-4 seconds) (4th highest)
43.4% on FGA very late in shot clock (13th)


Defense

48.1% FG (25th)
35.7% 3P (13th)
22.8 Personal Fouls Per Game (most in league)
54.7% Effective Field Goal (21st)
12.5% Turnover Rate (19th)
115.0 Defensive Rating (25th)
71.7 Defensive Rebounding % (15th)
13.5 Feet Average Distance Field Goal Attempt (7th closest)
4.2 Blocks per 100 Possessions (24th)
6.8 Steals per 100 Possessions (20th)
43.7% of 2PA that are assisted (29th)
8.2% of opp. offensive plays are isolations (4th highest)
.95 points per opp. iso possession (25th)
15.6% of opp. offensive plays are in transition (5th lowest)
1.08 points allowed per transition possession (4th)
15.9% of opp. offensive plays are pick and rolls where the ball handler keeps the ball (10th lowest)
.91 points per opp. P&R play where ball handlers keeps the ball (19th)
4.5% of opp. offensive plays are pick and rolls where the roll man gets the ball (5th lowest)
1.07 points per opp. P&R play where the roll man gets the ball (1st)
25.7% of opp. offensive plays are spot up shots (6th highest)
1.09 opp. points per spot up shot (28th)
12.2 deflections per game (29th)
3.9 loose balls recovered per game (28th)
44.0 contested shots per game (24rd)
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Old 01-22-2023, 12:03 PM   #2
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Excellent read prop's to you.

I only expect Cuban and Nico to make minor a deal TBH.

I'm holding out hope that if they decide to do that it's for a center. I've been beating that Rashaun Holmes drum all year and to certain extent Noel.

IF the Mavs make a minor deal for one of those two, you're looking at a potential lineup that could move Wood to his natural PF spot and one of the agile defensive big's next to him that would be better than Powell in rebounding and rim protection.

Holmes or Noel
Wood
DFS
Dinwiddie
Luka


If the lineup has no changes, then I think it's time to elevate Green to a starting role simply because he does several little things that this team needs. Defense, Rebounding and energy.......

I honestly don't want THJ starting because that put's 3 players on the floor who can't defend on the perimeter where teams expose Dallas.

Wood
DFS
Green
Dinwiddie
Luka

Last edited by Dallas41; 01-22-2023 at 12:04 PM.
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Old 01-22-2023, 03:18 PM   #3
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Good read
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Old 01-23-2023, 10:35 AM   #4
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I like your trade targets for sure and the idea of letting Green have the opportunity to really turn it on in the SL and with the accompanying minutes.

I do not think the Knicks would be inclined to move Mitchell Robinson though I'd be all ears if he were available.

I think obtaining a Daniel Gafford and TJ McConnell type might be viewed as smaller moves, but ones that address obvious issues and could be sending less thought about players on their way in those deals a la Powell, DFS, or Bullock to open up more Green minutes.
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