It's Official: Dallas Mavs vs OKC Thunder Round 1

[JET41]

It's Official: Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Round 1

Saturaday, 04/28/2012
9:30 ET ESPN
Mavericks vs Thunder

What are you reactions and thoughts? Expectations?
Who do you think needs to step up for Mavericks to have a fighting chance to win this series? or to at least go down as champions? How many games do you see this series as?

Can the #7 seed, who is underestimated beat out the #2 seed who's the favorite by many to win the West?

[mavspwnage]

Game 1 - Sat April 28, Dallas at Oklahoma City, 9:30 p.m., ESPN
Game 2 - Mon April 30, Dallas at Oklahoma City, 9:30 p.m., TNT
Game 3 - Thu May 3, Oklahoma City at Dallas, 9:30 p.m., TNT
Game 4 - Sat May 5, Oklahoma City at Dallas, 7:30 p.m., TNT
Game 5 * Mon May 7, Dallas at Oklahoma City, TBD
Game 6 * Thu May 10, Oklahoma City at Dallas, TBD
Game 7 * Sat May 12, Dallas at Oklahoma City ,TBD, TNT

[mav4ever]

well, everyone else seems to have been pulling for this, but i really would have rather had the lakers, especially in the first round while the absent philanthropist, metta world peace serves his suspension for going all ufc on whats his face.

my biggest fear is pace of game. if we force our pace i like our chances, if they force theirs, were history.

if its a wind sprint series, im wondering if our older guys can run with them. dirk, jett, marion, kidd, and carters combined years in the league probably meets the requirements for social security retirement benefits.

transition is a little scary with a team that can run like i suspect they can, but if we can play our pace it could go 7....... then again maybe their youth and inexperience will play a roll.

[Skywalker]

Some good stuff by Synergy:

[chumdawg]

Looks like both the Thunder defense and the Thunder offense are way ahead. Not looking rosy for the home team.

[JHT]

This is the best possible scenario for the Mavs given the potential options for the simple reason that this is the team Wright is most likely to be effective against. He wouldn't have even gotten on the court against the Lakers.

[dude1394]

I'm not sure how much stock to put in the synergy stuff ( although as a data gathering, it is impressive ) because I do think the data is very, very dirty this year.

I would also kind of like to see the last month of thunder data. It appeared to me they burned themselves out trying to get the #1 seed but failed. Also who is their post-up option?

[Aggie E]

Dallas does not match up well with LAL this year. No Chandler really shows against that team. While OKC has no offensive center so Dallas can play Wright more. Marion can check Durant and Dallas will get help from Westbrook as long as they frustrate him. THIS IS THE BEST POSSIBLE MATCHUP of any of the top 4 seeds Dallas could face...Also truth is that James Harden may not be 100% after Ron Artest tried to knock him head off

[twistaeffect2004]

For what it's worth the TNT crew pretty much said the Thunder are going to dismantle the Mavs. Charles in particular said "OKC is gonna put a whoopin on these boys... gonna finish them off quick -- too young, too good." I'm paraphrasing a bit here but you get the point. He also said the heart of last years Mavs is currently in New York.

Ouch.

[j0Shi]

Think we've heard that before, no?

No matter the opponent, every first round series would have had the potential to turn out like a role reversal of Lakers-Mavs last year. A tired championship team on the one and a hungry team on the other side. In my eyes the first round will tell you a lot about whether they really want to make another run or not.

On a sheer talent/experience level I like our chances, comes down to grit.

[twistaeffect2004]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Think we've heard that before, no?

No doubt about it. But to be fair to Charles, he was literally the only nationally broadcasted expert who picked us over the Lakers and Thunder last year. He didn't have us against the Heat, but he did say we had a chance when everybody else thought it was a foregone conclusion the Heat were going to destroy. He was firmly on the Mavs bandwagon last year, probably the only one other than the fans and those who work close/with the Mavs.

[j0Shi]

Yeah but Chuck also maundered something about "father time" this year. He's got a very specified and often narrow view on things and the Mavs did fit his requirements last year (dominant bigs + toughness).

Without Chandler + condensed season + weird preparation our bench will have to shoulder even more than last year. Dirk's, Terry's, Kidd's, Marion's motivation / engine surely is lower than last playoffs, so guys like West/Roddy/Carter/Wright/whoever in some ways has to electrify them.

I don't think the remaining championship core can carry them as much as they did last year.

[RvM]

Long time lurker, but a poster from realgm. Just wondering, is there a certain rule for members and making their threads?

I'd like to post the GTD for the forum here if that's possible.

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by RvM

Long time lurker, but a poster from realgm. Just wondering, is there a certain rule for members and making their threads?

I'd like to post the GTD for the forum here if that's possible.

There's a pecking order for the GTD.

[RvM]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

There's a pecking order for the GTD.

Ah I see. Thanks for the clarification!

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Yeah but Chuck also maundered something about "father time" this year.

What it means, maundering?

[thunderfan]

Originally Posted by dude1394

I'm not sure how much stock to put in the synergy stuff ( although as a data gathering, it is impressive ) because I do think the data is very, very dirty this year.

I would also kind of like to see the last month of thunder data. It appeared to me they burned themselves out trying to get the #1 seed but failed. Also who is their post-up option?

From my perspective, OKC has been half-a$$ing it and been on cruise control for sometime. THey've lost their last 7 games to playoff teams. They got complacent.

They don't have a post up option. They'll feed it to Perkins a time or two, but he's not going to do much to you. Ibaka's main offense is the 12-18 footer, which he can hit pretty consistently - or putbacks from offensive rebounds.

[dude1394]

They may have, but I haven't seen where the minutes are down significantly, but I don't pay a lot of attention to them.

[thunderfan]

Originally Posted by twistaeffect2004

For what it's worth the TNT crew pretty much said the Thunder are going to dismantle the Mavs. Charles in particular said "OKC is gonna put a whoopin on these boys... gonna finish them off quick -- too young, too good." I'm paraphrasing a bit here but you get the point. He also said the heart of last years Mavs is currently in New York.

Ouch.

OKC fans don't seem to share quite the confidence that Charles does. I think we SHOULD win a 7 game series against this Dallas team, but when you're playing Dirk, Marion, Kidd, and Carlisle, you're always playing with fire.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by thunderfan

OKC fans don't seem to share quite the confidence that Charles does. I think we SHOULD win a 7 game series against this Dallas team, but when you're playing Dirk, Marion, Kidd, and Carlisle, you're always playing with fire.

Thunderfan, have durant/westbrooks minutes been curtailed the last month during their skid?

[thunderfan]

Originally Posted by dude1394

They may have, but I haven't seen where the minutes are down significantly, but I don't pay a lot of attention to them.

Minutes aren't really down. Just a general lack of energy on defense. Sacramento scored 40 on them in the first QUARTER the other night. They're all pretty much 21-24 years old though, they aren't burnt out physically I can assure you that.

[JET41]

Originally Posted by twistaeffect2004

No doubt about it. But to be fair to Charles, he was literally the only nationally broadcasted expert who picked us over the Lakers and Thunder last year. He didn't have us against the Heat, but he did say we had a chance when everybody else thought it was a foregone conclusion the Heat were going to destroy. He was firmly on the Mavs bandwagon last year, probably the only one other than the fans and those who work close/with the Mavs.

Actually Charles did have Mavericks against the Heat last year.
Charles and Dan Le Batard even did a bit on who would win the championship.
I think the bet was whoever losses will have to wear a speedo though. lol

Now with what Charles and the crew said about the Mavericks and OKC series was hard to listen to but Dallas Mavs just hasn't played consistently great all season. So it is kind of hard to root for the team when you know they haven't played their best basketball.

I'll go for OKC as well but I wouldn't be surprised if Mavericks upset them.
For that to happen, everything has to be going great. lol Like Haywood needs to actually be effective. Brandon Wright needs to have an fantastic game. Jason Terry definitely needs to be better than he's been for the regular season.
Dirk have to be that Finals MVP type Dirk....
Last year the difference was that Dirk and Terry both were sure they were making it to the finals, they were very confident and would let no one stop their destination and the team was just fantastic.

This year... I think Dirk is just happy to already have a championship. So I really don't know how he's feeling although he did say no team in the West scares him.
Terry is worrying about getting traded, I at least hope his mind is in the right place during the playoffs.
Jason Kidd, I expect him to try to be aggressive.

[thunderfan]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Thunderfan, have durant/westbrooks minutes been curtailed the last month during their skid?

Westbrook a little bit. Durant's minutes really have not been down much the last month, other than a few games that were blowouts.

[Dale4Saul2Red0]

Of course we have no business winning this series but most thought we had no business doing what we did last year. If I'm being honest this isn't a championship team and that's okay. If we can beat the Thunder and squash their chances because a lot of people are picking them to go to the Finals I would consider the season a success. Yea keeping Durant and Westbrook from a ring would put a big smile on my face.

This was also our best possible scenario. We don't want to play the Lakers folks and anyone acting like playing them without World Peace is some kind of advantage hasn't been paying attention. Artest is past his prime, and his loss won't be felt that largely by the Lakers. LA would have been the worst possible match up for this team.

We played OKC 4 times this year, went 1-3. Every loss was a single digit game, and our victory was double digits. If you combine all the points scored from all 4 games OKC is +2. I'd like to think this series has the potential to be closer than some think. We can win this series, but it's going to be crucial to steal 1 of these first 2 games. If not I'm not confident. I hope we come out throwing haymakers on Saturday because if we can win the 1st game it could really put this young OKC team on their heels, and who knows how they'll react to being punched in the mouth by the defending champs.

REMEMBER TO BE THE MAN YOU GOT TO BEAT THE MAN, AND UNTIL THEY CROWN A NEW CHAMP WE'RE STILL THE MAN! LETS GO!

[j0Shi]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

What it means, maundering?

Was supposed to mean "talking crap/out of his mind"

Maybe my dictionary fooled me.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Was supposed to mean "talking crap/out of his mind"

Maybe my dictionary fooled me.

Nope, you were right - it basically means "rambling."

And Barkley is a ramblin' fool, that's for sure...

[j0Shi]

[markus1234]

Mavs in 7.

Meanwhile SAS keeps their streak alive with 50 wins. Very impressive.

[nowhereman]

I wouldn't put too much stock into the past month or so for the Thunder - Lesson learned from last year is that it is probably smarter to look at their overall body of work and their best 10 or 15 game stretch to see what they are capable of.

Thunder have a decided iso advantage here. To me this series really comes down to whether we can effectively double and rotate where we need to, whether we can clog the interior but still manage to get a hand up on their shots, on p&rs whether we can consistently fight through picks and trust that there's secondary help for the roll guy if we hedge, and really just whether we can make it tough for their offense.

[joemoeschmoe]

Mavs in 6.

When has a team with a gunner PG with terrible shot selection ever consistently done well in the playoffs?

I'm more concerned about Harden's penetration than anything else. Durant is going to shoot really well -- not much you can do about that. Harden's penetration gets everybody else going.

Anybody know whether Maynor will play or not? It is no coincidence that the 1 game that OKC won vs Mavs last year in playoffs was when Maynor played entire 4th.

[thunderfan]

Another thing to watch for is whether or not Westbrook decides to take on the entire Mavericks lineup by himself. At times, I do believe the guy thinks he can take care of the game by himself. I'm not a Westbrook basher by any means, but the guy still has some things to learn about taking what's given to him and not trying to do too much himself. You gotta like his confidence though..... I guess?

[thunderfan]

Maynor is out until next season.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by thunderfan

Another thing to watch for is whether or not Westbrook decides to take on the entire Mavericks lineup by himself. At times, I do believe the guy thinks he can take care of the game by himself. I'm not a Westbrook basher by any means, but the guy still has some things to learn about taking what's given to him and not trying to do too much himself. You gotta like his confidence though..... I guess?

Yeah, Westbrook is good for at least one Mavs win by himself...

[SMC0007]

If the Mavs don't win it in 3, they will get swept!

[nowhereman]

Including preseason, the Mavs have played OKC in 11 of their last 79 games.

[Kante]

What is Woj's prediction?

[NorwegianMavsFan]

Deleted

[MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs]

We're 17th from worst to best right here.



But then again, we can't be below Utah because they're the 8th seed and we're 7th. So 18th should be right.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by joemoeschmoe

Anybody know whether Maynor will play or not? It is no coincidence that the 1 game that OKC won vs Mavs last year in playoffs was when Maynor played entire 4th.

I remember him playing late in Game 5. They were rolling with a small lineup that was causing problems throughout the game, so the Mavs eventually countered by going big, and they pretty much intentionally gave Maynor the mismatch by putting Dirk on him. He was tempted into trying to take over the game, and subsequently botched several key plays for them down the stretch.

[Kidd Karma]

I like it, this is playoff basketball, this is where half court grind out basketball wins more often than not. When the grind of the 4th quarter comes up, the teams become methodical, not wanting to make turnovers, they take extra time to take care of the ball and get it in the hands of the crunch time guy. Helter skelter teams up and down, don't do as well here, if the game is close entering the 4th quarter, within 10 points. it's stemming the tide, forcing them into turnovers in the first 3, making mental mistakes, taking them out of their comfort zones, westbrook 25 footers fading away is what the doctor is ordering. Aside from that OKC ain't a big market, lets keep an eye out for danny crawford and Mavs media pump out the NBA is against the Mavs at every turn, get the light on biased refereeing, like we did early on last year. It's a winnable series, but 100% of the pundits will pick OKC, the media darlings....same as last year.