A Statistical Dive Into the Mavs 2020-2021 Season

[tap2390]

OFFENSIVE PLAY TYPE
6.2 ISO% (#11)
.96 ISO PPP (#6)

21.8 P&R% (STAYS WITH BALL HANDLER) (#5)
.98 P&R PPP (STAYS WITH BALL HANDLER) (#3)

6.8 P&R% (GOES TO ROLL MAN) (#5)
1.18 P&R PPP (GOES TO ROLL MAN) (#5)

4.8 POST UP% (#12)
1.03 POST UP PPP (#3)

24.4 SPOT UP% (#7)
1.05 SPOT UP PPP (#12) – top 12 teams all made playoffs/ play-in

5.1 CUT% (#29)
1.30 CUT PPP (#14)

6.9 ELBOW TOUCHES (#29)
19.8 PAINT TOUCHES (#24)

47.2 DRIVES (#13)
55.2 FG% ON DRIVES (#1)
40.5 PASS% ON DRIVES (#9)

37.5 CATCH & SHOOT FG% (#19) (#9 IN ATTEMPTS)
36.9 CATCH & SHOOT 3P% (#18) (#6 IN ATTEMPTS)

48.5 EFG% ON PULL UPS (#6)

16.5 OPEN 3s ATTEMPTED (CLOSEST DEFENDER 4-6 FT AWAY) (#4)


SHOT SELECTION
25.0 ATTEMPTS <5FT (#29)
65.5 FG% ATTEMPTS <5FT (#3)

8.4 ATTEMPTS 5-9FT (#22)
47.6 FG% ATTEMPTS 5-9FT (#7)

8.2 ATTEMPTS 10-14FT (#9)
47.6 FG% ATTEMPTS 10-14FT (#4)

6.5 ATTEMPTS 15-19FT (#11)
44.6 FG% ATTEMPTS 15-19 (#6)

14.0 ATTEMPTS 20-24FT (#12)
37.7 FG% ATTEMPTS 20-24FT (#17)

24.0 ATTEMPTS 25-29FT (#7)
35.8 FG% ATTEMPTS 25-29FT (#14)


SCORING
112.4 PPG (#17) – top 10 teams all made playoffs/ play-in

87.3 FGA (#22) – top 5 teams all made playoffs/ play-in
47 FG% (#13) – top 5 teams all made playoffs/ play-in

38.1 3PA (#6)
36.2 3P% (#18) – top 12 teams all made playoffs/ play-in

21.2 FTA (#20)

114.6 ORTG (#8) – top 10 teams all made playoffs/ play-in

97.94 PACE (#26)


REBOUNDING
9.1 OREB (#25)
25.3 OREB% (#21)

34.2 DREB (#17)
73.4 DREB% (#17)


PASSING
22.9 ASSISTS (#26) – top 7 teams all made playoffs/ play-in
55.7 ASSIST% (#28)
17.2 ASSIST RATIO (#23) – i.e. % of team’s possessions that end with an assisted basket

12.1 TOs (#3)
12.3 TO% (#3)


DEFENSE
112.3 DRTG (#21) – top 11 teams all made playoffs/ play-in
46.0 OPP FG% (#9) – top 17 of 18 teams made playoffs/ play-in
110.2 OPP PPG (#9)
36.5 OPP 3P% (#13)

6.3 STLS (#30)
4.3 BLKS (#26)
19.4 FOULS (#19)

13.1 OPP 2ND CHANCE PTS (#15)
12.4 OPP FAST BREAK PTS (#17)
45.2 OPP POINTS IN THE PAINT (#7)


MISCELLANEOUS
14.5 PTS OFF TOs (#27)
12.3 2ND CHANCE PTS (#23)
11.4 FAST BREAK PTS (#21)
44.2 POINTS IN THE PAINT (#25)
43.6 % OF FGA FROM 3 (#6)


MAIN TAKEAWAYS
-Obviously you don't need stats to tell you this, but we are heavily reliant on Luka Doncic. Our iso, pick and roll, midrange, and driving success are largely Luka's doing (and, to a lesser extent, Brunson). Arguably, we're a below average team buoyed by Luka's individual skillset.

-I've said this before, but we make life difficult for ourselves because we don't generate easy looks. We're bottom ten in elbow touches, paint touches, offensive rebounding, assists, points off turnovers, second chance points, fast break points, and points in the paint.

Think about what I just said. Honestly? The success we had is amazing all things considered.

-List of players with a higher usage rate than Luka: Joel Embiid. That's all.

-He has sever offensive shortcomings, but Cauley-Stein really shows up in advanced defensive numbers. I would exercise the team option on him because in the very least he has some trade value.

-IMO our #1 need by far is a roll man; #2 is shooters.

MY TOP FREE AGENCY TARGETS

Richaun Holmes --> at 1.30 PPP as the roll man in the pick and roll, Holmes is one of the most efficient high-usage roll men in the league (Gobert and Bam Adebayo being the only two in his league)... he also has great intangibles, is a fantastic defender in space, and would bring some much needed energy

Alex Caruso --> he's an elite on-ball defender who like Holmes brings energy and fire

Tony Snell —> one of the best catch and shoot players in the league and a UFA

-Reggie Bullock —> basically a slightly worse shooting but better defending Tony Snell

-Kendrick Nunn —> RFA, but an underrated shooter

-TJ McConnell —> basically the perfect Brunson replacement if we decide to trade Jalen... underrated defender and driving the ball

-Josh Hart —> another hustle/ glue guy, Hart is the best rebounding guard in the NBA and may be a buy low candidate with the Pels focused on Lonzo


MY TOP TRADE TARGETS
-Terry Rozier --> Scary Terry was 8th in the league in fast break points, and also did a good job of scoring in the paint and is an underrated catch and shoot player.... if Hornets are looking to keep the ball in LaMelo's hands we should explore a trade

-John Collins --> Collins scores in the paint and has made strides as a defender... Hawks might be inclined to control costs with a trade, would Brunson + JRich get it done?

-Malcolm Brogdon —> like Rozier Brogdon shows up all over the place with advanced stats


CONCLUSION

I came away from this hopeful. Mavs have assets and just need to utilize them to make changes. Hardaway, Brunson, Kleber, maybe even Richardson on an expiring deal should all have positive value around the league. It will be up to the Mavs to leverage that in the best way possible. I think Rozier and Collins are natural targets according to the stats and thei team situation.