Who will win MVP?

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Well, I have news for you. If the supporting cast isn't even good enough to contend for the playoffs, there is no way in frozen hell that the Mavs are winning the title this year. Not with Dirk, not with Magic, not with Jordan, not with whoever.

And there just ain't no getting around that. In the playoffs it will depend a lot on the supporting cast. We saw that last year, when at times we were able to take Steve Nash out of the game if we wanted to take that gamble. Let someone else beat us, the mantra was.

The Mavs are doomed if the rest of the team is that bad. Doomed. No second chances. No funeral. Doomed.

I disagree completely, Chum. I seriously doubt the '03 Spurs would've made the playoffs in the West that year without Duncan, but they had their MVP and they won the title. Granted, they didn't have to face a monster Detroit team in the finals, but they did dethrone the Lakers and win the title.

[rabbitproof]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Well, I have news for you. If the supporting cast isn't even good enough to contend for the playoffs, there is no way in frozen hell that the Mavs are winning the title this year. Not with Dirk, not with Magic, not with Jordan, not with whoever.

And there just ain't no getting around that. In the playoffs it will depend a lot on the supporting cast. We saw that last year, when at times we were able to take Steve Nash out of the game if we wanted to take that gamble. Let someone else beat us, the mantra was.

The Mavs are doomed if the rest of the team is that bad. Doomed. No second chances. No funeral. Doomed.

Word. If the Dirk-less Mavs would be submited to a 3X win fate, then Dirk will have to carry this team game in and game out in the playoffs because our cast is not winning any playoff games for us.

While I am ready to go all in on Dirk in any case, I do not believe that will be the case.

Thus I believe, Mavs - Dirk = whatever we finish - about 20 wins. 20 or so wins is MVP-worthy enough as I don't think any single player subtraction takes his NBA team down 25+ wins. Teams find a way. Hell, Dallas improved without Nash and Phoenix held steady without Amare. It wouldn't be all right but it would not fall apart.

[kriD]

MVP RACE: WHAT THEY'RE SAYING

By Dwain Price
Star-Telegram Staff Writer

Roscoe Nance, USA Today: This is the toughest MVP call that I've had to make since I've been covering the league. But [Steve] Nash gets my vote because the Suns were left for dead when they lost [Amare] Stoudemire to injury and Nash has them at the top of their division with a re-made roster from a year ago.

Mitch Lawrence, New York Daily News: This is a classic case of a superstar who makes lesser players around him better. [Dirk] Nowitzki carried the Mavs in a seasonlong battle for Western Conference supremacy against the deeper and more talented Spurs. Dallas fell short for the top spot, but the Mavs were still 2-2 vs. San Antonio, and 11-7 overall against division leaders, winning nine of their first 10 games. We don't know how far the Mavs can go in the postseason, but, contrary to public opinion, that's not considered in the MVP evaluation. What we do know is that Nowitzki made Dallas a championship contender this season -- for the first time ever.

Joe Juliano, Philadelphia Inquirer: While I have a lot of admiration for how significant the contributions of Nash and Nowitzki were for their teams, I feel [LeBron] James didn't have as much to work with in Cleveland and practically strapped the team to his back after the All-Star break. I've been very impressed with his ability to play the all-around game, something I didn't give him much credit for when he entered the league.

Marty Burns, Sports Illustrated: No player in the NBA has been as valuable to his team this season -- while also leading them to title contention -- as Nash.

Ron Tillery, Memphis Commercial Appeal: Nash's credentials are just too much to overcome for Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki, San Antonio's Tim Duncan, the L.A. Clippers' Elton Brand and Cleveland's LeBron James.

Frank Hughes, The (Tacoma) News Tribune: I feel like a guy who scored 81 in a game, is one of only a handful of players in league history to average 35 points, broke the franchise record for 40-point games, and has taken that moribund [Lakers] crew to the playoffs deserves MVP.

Phil Jasner, Philadelphia Daily News: All I know is, the Suns, despite fading a bit recently, have stayed right near the top despite missing [Amare] Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas. I know it's easy to say it's the system that makes it work, but the guy driving the limo is Nash.

Jason Quick, The Oregonian: 1. Steve Nash, Phoenix. Quite simply, he makes everyone around him better, which makes him invaluable to a team. The emergence of Boris Diaw, Raja Bell and James Jones is a testament to Nash, who makes the Suns engine purr.

David DuPree, USA Today: I think James has had the biggest impact of anyone on a good team. He always seems to make the right decisions and the right plays, says the right things and plays the right way. Not only is he the MVP, but I think he is the best player in the league, as well.

Israel Gutierrez, Miami Herald: LeBron has done more for his team than any other player in the league, despite the loss of Larry Hughes for most of the year. And if you look at how his team struggles statistically with him off the court, there's no question he elevates his team more than any other MVP candidate.

The informal vote

How the MVP race is shaking out, according to an informal Star-Telegram survey of more than a third of the voting field:

1ST 2ND 3RD
Steve Nash
14 _ 17 _ 4
Dirk Nowitzki
13 _ 6 _ 9
LeBron James
8 _ 8 _ 11
Chauncey Billups
6 _ 4 _ 9
Kobe Bryant
3 _ 7 _ 8
Elton Brand
0 _ 1 _ 2
Dwyane Wade
0 _ 1 _ 0
Tim Duncan
0 _ 0 _ 1

The voting

The voting for the annual NBA awards can be complex. One hundred twenty-seven votes are cast in each category, with votes coming from print, radio, TV and Internet media who cover the NBA. Three media members from each of the league's 30 markets vote on each award, accounting for 90 of the votes. The names of those media members are given to the NBA public relations department by the public relations directors in the respective NBA cities. In the case of large media markets such as New York, the public relations director will break up the ballots, meaning some media members will vote in only two or three categories. The other 37 votes in each category come from NBA beat writers, such as Dwain Price of the Star-Telegram, and representatives of Sports Illustrated, TNT, ABC, ESPN, Sporting News and ESPN.com. The NBA will announce the winners of its annual postseason awards throughout the playoffs, which begin Saturday.

[kriD]

Nowitzki could dethrone old friend

By ART GARCIA
Star-Telegram Staff Writer

The candidates are obvious. The favorite is murky.

As the last week of the NBA regular season begins, the Most Valuable Player race is a free-for-all with Mavericks überman Dirk Nowitzki quietly loping somewhere at the head of the pack.

Nowitzki's candidacy has gained steam in recent weeks, and he's even emerged as the favorite in some unlikely circles (TNT's Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith) to claim the league's highest individual honor one year after former teammate and close friend Steve Nash brought the trophy to Phoenix.

(Again, why were Nowitzki and Nash split up?)

A franchise cornerstone for years, Nowitzki has been recognized as one of the league's best since becoming an All-Star in 2002.

His ascent to MVP status is two years in the making. He finished third in the voting last season behind Nash and Miami superman Shaquille O'Neal. Nowitzki is likely to move up at least a notch and perhaps two this time around.

A Star-Telegram poll conducted last week has Nowitzki checking in as a close second to Nash in the balloting. Approximately a third of eligible MVP voters responded.

Cleveland star LeBron James is third, with Detroit's Chauncey Billups and Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers rounding out the top five. Those five have separated from the pack.

Polls taken across the country and in the dot.com universe consistently peg Nowitzki as one of the favorites, with official voting closing Thursday.

Whatever happens, it's clear Nowitzki has a legitimate shot at being the first Maverick and first European recognized as MVP.

"We're not concerned about his MVP candidacy," said Avery Johnson, the Star-Telegram poll's overwhelming choice for coach of the year. "We're concerned with winning a championship."

That's true, but Johnson has voiced his support for Nowitzki often during the season. And Nash has already endorsed his former running mate.

"He's the unquestioned leader [of the Mavs] in many ways, and he's extremely committed and focused," Nash said. "To be the best player and be that committed and focused and a leader and win that many games, he's the MVP."

Even though Nowitzki has solid support across NBA voting precincts, not everyone is convinced of the 7-footer's credentials.

A recent ESPN.com article listing six candidates in various MVP-like categories didn't go over too well within Mavs' circles because it didn't include Nowitzki. Mark Cuban was asked last week if he thought Nowitzki's candidacy had gained momentum lately, and he immediately referenced the piece.

"I did until I listened to some of these guys like [ESPN's] Ric Bucher," Cuban said. "He talks about making players around him better. I'd rather have someone who makes his team better than helping other players get better stats."

Is that a thinly veiled shot at Nash?

"Steve's a great guy and [winning the MVP last season] couldn't happen to a nicer guy," Cuban said, "but I think Dirk deserves it more than Steve."

Nash appeared headed to an MVP landslide victory a few weeks ago, but his re-election bid lost some steam when the Suns cooled off after Amare Stoudemire's aborted comeback.

James, the league's third-leading scorer prior to Saturday's games, is making a serious bid in just his third year in the league. The streaking Cavaliers are headed to the playoffs for the first time with James, having clinched the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Then there's the job being done by Nowitzki.

After battling San Antonio for the best record in the Western Conference all season, Nowitzki has the Mavs on the verge of the best record in franchise history. The Mavs can reach 60 victories for only the second time with a win tonight against Utah at American Airlines Center.

Nowitzki was eighth in scoring (career-high 26.6 points) and 16th in rebounding (9.0) before Saturday's games, while playing in all 80 games. He's also posting career-best percentages in every shooting category.

And his numbers are up since the All-Star break. Nowitzki is averaging 29.1 points and 10.2 rebounds in the past 28 games (18-10), helping keep the Mavs afloat after a rash of injuries knocked out four of the top eight players in the rotation at one point.

Nowitzki isn't a one-man team -- the Mavs' depth is among the league's best -- but he doesn't have an All-Star teammate or a teammate ranked in the top 20 in scoring, rebounding or assists.

James is the only member of the Star-Telegram's MVP top five who is ranked in the top 20 in all three.

"They talk about Chauncey being a clutch player, but he's got three All-Stars and you can make a case for four," Cuban said. "Steve has Shawn Marion, and I'd make an argument more for Shawn Marion as MVP. Kobe carries his team to the seventh or eighth seed, and LeBron is in a conference with only four teams over .500.

"There's nobody where you'd say that's the one guy who's carried that team through injuries, adversity and anything you can imagine. Dirk is the only guy that fits that profile. It'll be shocking to me if he doesn't win."

The organization considered putting together a Heisman-like campaign for Nowitzki -- one recent trend is custom lunch boxes emblazoned with MVP candidates -- but decided against it.

"That's just not Dirk's style," Cuban said. "Because he's not promotional, because he's not seeking out press, because he's not out there doing interviews, he's not going to be as visible and top of mind."

Nowitzki prefers to keep it low key. He hasn't sought out any high-profile endorsements in North America. (He has several in Europe.)

Nowitzki shies away from talk he's an elite player, much less the MVP.

He has, however, surprisingly backed off talk that Nash is a shoo-in to repeat.

"He's right up there," Nowitzki said. "It's kind of tough this year. If you look at LeBron and the type of second half he had. Chauncey is right up there. He's on the best team and made big shots for them. It's going to be a tough race and we'll see who comes out on top."

Nowitzki would only put himself in the "top 10" contenders. Asked to rank his top five, Nowitzki naturally took the modest route despite some prodding.

"I can't really put one through five," he said. "They're all on one stage. Chauncey and Steve. Who else?"

LeBron?

"LeBron."

You?

"Who else is out there?"

That's about it.

[kriD]

Avery given vote of support

By DWAIN PRICE
Star-Telegram Staff Writer

In a survey of some of the media members with a vote, Mavericks coach Avery Johnson is on target to win this year's NBA Coach of the Year award.

More than 66 percent of the media members contacted by the Star-Telegram with a Coach of the Year vote said they'll select Johnson as their top pick to win the award.

Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer said: "I voted for Avery because he linked two words -- "Mavericks" and "defense" -- that never belonged in the same sentence under Don Nelson. Changing a team's persona is the hardest thing in coaching, and he pulled it off."

Not only did Johnson pull it off, but he has the Mavs (59-21) on the verge of winning 60 games for just the second time in franchise history.

Jason Quick of The Oregonian said: "No coach this season has changed their team's style more than Avery, who has the Mavericks playing defense and seemingly playing with a sense of urgency. Everyone thought Dallas would be good.

"But, great? They are, and Avery is the reason."

Ohm Youngmisuk of the New York Daily News agreed with that assessment.

"I never expected Dallas to win 60 games," Youngmisuk said. "After losing [Michael] Finley, and [Steve] Nash the year before, the Mavericks have not only not missed a beat, they are defending like never before.

"Who knew Avery could put the 'D' in Dallas?"

Although the NBA officially announces the Coach of the Year winner during the second round of the playoffs, Doug Smith of the Toronto Star believes he already knows whose name will top the ballot.

"I don't think this one's going to be close," Smith said. "Johnson's done an incredible job getting the Mavs to pay much more attention to defense, he's taken new pieces like [DeSagana] Diop and made them fit in.

"And he demands the respect of his players because he seems, to me at least, to be very consistent in how he deals with 'em."

In the Star-Telegram survey, Johnson is expected to get a strong challenge for the top coaching honor from Mike D'Antoni of the Phoenix Suns.

Phil Jasner of the Philadelphia Daily News said: "D'Antoni wasn't a bit deterred by the loss of [Amare] Stoudemire, and, later, the loss of [Kurt] Thomas. He has a system and the players who fit that system."

D'Antoni has led the Suns to a 52-27 record, the Pacific Division title and the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

"D'Antoni has the best system in the league and knows how to get players to perform in it," USA Today writer David DuPree said. "Nash makes it run, but D'Antoni is the one who makes it possible."

Beside Johnson and D'Antoni, the majority of the other votes from the media members in the survey went to Flip Saunders (Detroit), Byron Scott (New Orleans/Oklahoma City), Mike Dunleavy (LA Clippers) and Gregg Popovich (San Antonio).

But Johnson, in his first full season as head coach, is the overwhelming favorite to win the award.

"I've spent 58 years in the game of basketball," said Bob Ortegel, a TV analyst on the Mavs' broadcast who has a vote. "I started playing when I was 8 years old, and Avery Johnson is the best practice teacher I have ever seen.

"He will be a Hall of Fame coach some day. He's as good as it gets."

And what Johnson will receive in about a month has become obvious to Phil Miller of The Salt Lake Tribune.

"I expected Dallas to begin a slow fade this year," Miller said. "But Avery seems to have made it clear who's in charge, he developed the kids and turned the Mavs into a team that's going to contend for the title in a year or two."

[orangedays]

Originally Posted by kriD

MVP RACE: WHAT THEY'RE SAYING

How do these guys find work? Seriously. I can list 10 guys on this board who know more about basketball. Ugh.

[Jerry Stackhouse]

Has to be Kobe. Dude scored 81 points in one game.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by Jerry Stackhouse

Has to be Kobe. Dude scored 81 points in one game.

This is hilarious dude!.

[orangedays]

Originally Posted by Jerry Stackhouse

Has to be Kobe. Dude scored 81 points in one game.

Oops...sorry, I'm so used to trolls on here I didn't even finish reading the post before doling out the bad rep.

My bad

[Thespiralgoeson]

I got a kick out of that one. Good rep for you, Stack!

[dirno2000]

I don't know if Hollinger gets a vote so I'm posting this here:

Aaron (West Laf, IN): Alright, JH...let's hear you're latest MVP talk. Any changes? Simmons says Bryant (and Billups is #8 on his list?!)..but Stein says Bryant can't win it because he does silly things like elbowing M.Miller and costing his team 3 games. give us your status...

SportsNation John Hollinger: I put Bryant a distant fourth. My top three guys are LeBron, Dirk and Wade. A month ago Wade looked like a home run to me, but he struggled down the stretch while LeBron and Dirk dialed it up. Choosing between LeBron and Dirk, I have to go with LeBron just because he's played so many more minutes -- basically, he's providing the same production for a greater duration.

[orangedays]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

Hollinger: ...basically, he's providing the same production for a greater duration.

My Ricky Davis v. Josh Howard argument dirno!!!

[chumdawg]

Was your argument that you should not expect low-minute guys to see their production hold up under heavy minutes?

That may well be the case.

But in this case, Dirk is not at ALL a low-minute player. I'm not sure I agree with this argument Hollinger is making. I mean, I do give respect to a guy who gives you great production and plays a ton of minutes while doing so. But I also think that falls outside the norm of what is expected on elite teams. So to use that as your criterion to distinguish between players seems empty to me.

Then again, I have to keep reminding myself, this not award is not (always) about the better player. It's the guy who offered the most value to his team.

[orangedays]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Was your argument that you should not expect low-minute guys to see their production hold up under heavy minutes?

That may well be the case.

But in this case, Dirk is not at ALL a low-minute player. I'm not sure I agree with this argument Hollinger is making. I mean, I do give respect to a guy who gives you great production and plays a ton of minutes while doing so. But I also think that falls outside the norm of what is expected on elite teams. So to use that as your criterion to distinguish between players seems empty to me.

Then again, I have to keep reminding myself, this not award is not (always) about the better player. It's the guy who offered the most value to his team.

I said it tongue-in-cheek as dirno and I had had a pretty intense debate a couple weeks back where I had asserted Davis was 'superior' to Josh with one of the criteria my belief that Josh's production would not increase concurrently with his minutes if extrapolated to 40/48 mpg (or at least we could not assume that they would increase concurrently). But at the risk of getting back into that discussion, I digress . dirno made the very valid point that when you have a player who plays >35 min., it is not too much to expect that player to maintain his production over only 5 more minutes. Or in Dirk's case v. LeBron, 4.4 mpg (Dirk averages 38.1, LeBron 42.5 mpg).

I agree with you, Hollinger dropped the ball on this one. If you look at the stats, LeBron takes 3.8 additional shots per game (23.1 FGA pg v. 19.3) and scores an additional 4.8 ppg. While Dirk and LeBron have the same eFG% at 51.5%, by virtue of his superior FT-shooting, Dirk owns the higher TS% at 58.9% v. LeBron's 56.8%. The fact of the matter is, leave Dirk on the floor for 4.4 additional minutes and my money says that he would end up scoring more points than LeBron.