Summer 2012 Assets

[Underdog]

If we’re trying to prognosticate how the Mavs are going to rebuild this summer, then I thought it would be best to start by figuring out our assets. This is our first full summer under the new CBA (draft and all), so I’m still a bit sketchy on some of the details...

Here’s what I’ve worked out so far - please feel free to add to this list, correct anything that’s wrong or debate my player assessments (even though you’re probably retarded):


1) ~$20M cap space: the Mavs have ~$41M in guaranteed contracts next season with a projected salary cap of ~$61M.

2) #17 draft pick: can be packaged in a trade or used to add a decent player in a deep draft.

3) Amnesty Clause: goodbye, Brendan Haywood… Also, other teams will probably be amnestying players worth keeping an eye on.

4) Shawn Marion: one of the best defenders in the NBA, excellent rebounder, crafty scorer. The guy can still be a fantastic contributor to certain teams in this league, especially perennial playoff contenders. He has 2 seasons left on his contract; $8.6M in 12/13, then he becomes a $9.3M expiring in 13/14… Worth the price to any team that could use his skillset (including the Mavs).

5) Lamar Odom: probably still has value as a player if he lands on the right team, but the Mavs obviously aren’t that team. He has an $8.2M contract that can be bought out for $2.4M, but that amount still counts against the cap (so a buyout shouldn't be our first option)… We could trade him to a team that has the cap space to absorb the $2.4M hit, then they’d get to save the additional $5.8M with no repercussions – or they might even value him as a player and keep him. That should be worth at least a draft pick, if not a decent player in return.

6) Vince Carter: we can buy out his $3.1M contract for $800k(?) and pay it at any point over the next few seasons (I think), so it wouldn’t necessarily count against the cap next season… Or we can re-sign him if we can’t figure out a better way to spend $3.1M.

7) Brandan Wright and Kelenna Azubuike: the Mavs hold a team option on both players and can save a little bit of money if they choose not to exercise it, but they cost under $1M each, so I fully expect the Mavs to bring both of them back… Of course, that doesn’t mean they won’t possibly be traded.

8) Rodrigue Beaubois: a highly athletic player who can score and defend pretty well, but not consistently. Still has a ton of potential, but it’s starting to look like his potential will never be realized. He’s cheap and might still have value to a team that has the time and patience to continue to try to develop him. At this point, he’s probably only valued as trade filler/sweetener.

9) Dominique Jones: take anything that you can get for him and don’t look back, otherwise he makes a decent towel-waiver at the end of the bench.

10) MLE: I’m a bit shaky on this one - I know we gave it to Vince Carter this season, but do we get it back if we trade or waive him?


Is that everything - what am I missing here?

[Budapest Maverick]

We have 20 million capspace with Haywood still on the book? That's fantastic. We can essentially create what, 30 million capspace if we want to? We could sign Deron+Kaman, plus another good player for the MLE, if we want to. That would of course mean no Terry and Kidd, but depending on who we could get for the MLE, it would might be worth it. Or better yet, go on the Asik route (give him the full MLE), and maybe sign Deron and Batum? We could do this? If we're even 1 million under the cap (Deron+Batum signed for a combined starting 28 million), we have the full MLE, am i right? Or you can't go over the cap with the MLE, because you lose it?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

We have 20 million capspace with Haywood still on the book?

That's with Dirk, Marion, Haywood, Roddy and DoJo on the books - we'd have a total payroll of ~$33M if Haywood was amnestied with a ~$61M cap. That would be a total of ~$28M to play with this summer...

Of course, that doesn't include exercising the options on Wright or Azubuike, nor does it factor in a possible buyout for Odom (assuming we can't trade him), which would eat up another ~$4.5M of cap space, total.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

If we're even 1 million under the cap (Deron+Batum signed for a combined starting 28 million), we have the full MLE, am i right? Or you can't go over the cap with the MLE, because you lose it?

I'm kinda hazy on the MLE rules now, but I'm pretty sure they have one MLE ($20M over 4 years) reserved for teams that are under the luxury tax threshold, and a mini-MLE ($9M over 3 years) reserved for teams that are over the luxury tax threshold.

I'm pretty sure the deal we gave Carter was the mini-MLE.

[DirkFTW]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Is that everything - what am I missing here?

[BGMaverick9]

It may not be an asset, but it's good to know.
The teams that used the amnesty clause last year:
http://www.nba.com/news/amnesty-tracker/index.html

[jthig32]

A few things:

1. According to DLord, Carter's contract pays him roughly 3Mil next season and the one after (he got the full Mini-MLE, plus the allowable raises each year). If he's waived this off season, he's only due 2 Mil for each season, which is stretched out over 5 years for cap purposes. So if Carter's waived he counts 800K on our cap for five years.

2. Assuming we actually dip below the salary cap to sign someone, we lose all exceptions save for the room exception, which is 2.5 Mil for two seasons.

3. There's a roster charge of 473K for every empty roster spot up to 12. So if figuring room under the cap for six players, add 6 * 473K in unavailable cap space.

4. Be careful assuming 61Mil is the salary cap number. I've seen that said a few times, and I've seen it said that it won't move off of 58Mil this season.

5. Also, keep in mind that you have to be under the cap to claim an amnestied player.

6. Ian is early bird eligible, and has a very low cap hold (about 1.1Mil, I believe, which is only 650K more than the basic cap hold). We can keep his rights and then go over the cap to sign him to a league average deal after signing everyone else. Seems pretty likely that will happen.

7. I'd be careful assuming Haywood will be amnestied.

[jthig32]

Oh, and Larry Coon has posted his updated FAQ for the new CBA. This killed an hour of my day yesterday. In related news, I'm a huge nerd.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by jthig32

A few things:

1. According to DLord, Carter's contract pays him roughly 3Mil next season and the one after (he got the full Mini-MLE, plus the allowable raises each year). If he's waived this off season, he's only due 2 Mil for each season, which is stretched out over 5 years for cap purposes. So if Carter's waived he counts 800K on our cap for five years.

2. Assuming we actually dip below the salary cap to sign someone, we lose all exceptions save for the room exception, which is 2.5 Mil for two seasons.

3. There's a roster charge of 473K for every empty roster spot up to 12. So if figuring room under the cap for six players, add 6 * 473K in unavailable cap space.

4. Be careful assuming 61Mil is the salary cap number. I've seen that said a few times, and I've seen it said that it won't move off of 58Mil this season.

5. Also, keep in mind that you have to be under the cap to claim an amnestied player.

6. Ian is early bird eligible, and has a very low cap hold (about 1.1Mil, I believe, which is only 650K more than the basic cap hold). We can keep his rights and then go over the cap to sign him to a league average deal after signing everyone else. Seems pretty likely that will happen.

7. I'd be careful assuming Haywood will be amnestied.

This is why I made this thread - these are all very good points to note...

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by jthig32

1. According to DLord, Carter's contract pays him roughly 3Mil next season and the one after (he got the full Mini-MLE, plus the allowable raises each year). If he's waived this off season, he's only due 2 Mil for each season, which is stretched out over 5 years for cap purposes. So if Carter's waived he counts 800K on our cap for five years.

I'm curious what your thoughts are on whether they hang on to Vince. I'd be happy to see him stick, myself. His salary is reasonable, his contract and production are tradeable, and between the cap hold and the partial guarantee cutting him would only clear what, like 1.8 million? I guess if you think that's the difference between Deron and no Deron you cut him loose, but otherwise I'm inclined to think he's more of an asset on the roster than off.

6. Ian is early bird eligible, and has a very low cap hold (about 1.1Mil, I believe, which is only 650K more than the basic cap hold). We can keep his rights and then go over the cap to sign him to a league average deal after signing everyone else. Seems pretty likely that will happen.

That makes me happy.

7. I'd be careful assuming Haywood will be amnestied.

I agree in the sense that they're not even going to think about cutting him loose without knowing exactly how the freed up funds will be used, but at the same time, don't you think that if Dallas can come to an agreement with one of the top 3 PGs on the market (Deron/Nash/Dragic), that it'll be incumbent upon them to make a hard push for a more offensively capable replacement for Wood in the starting lineup?

[xrobx]

Brendan Haywood has "worked here" long enough.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I'm curious what your thoughts are on whether they hang on to Vince. I'd be happy to see him stick, myself. His salary is reasonable, his contract and production are tradeable, and between the cap hold and the partial guarantee cutting him would only clear what, like 1.8 million? I guess if you think that's the difference between Deron and no Deron you cut him loose, but otherwise I'm inclined to think he's more of an asset on the roster than off.

I think it's really hard to say. There are certainly scenarios where that 1.8 is really valuable and necessary, but you're right that's he's affordable and thus would seem easily trade able if necessary.

I agree in the sense that they're not even going to think about cutting him loose without knowing exactly how the freed up funds will be used, but at the same time, don't you think that if Dallas can come to an agreement with one of the top 3 PGs on the market (Deron/Nash/Dragic), that it'll be incumbent upon them to make a hard push for a more offensively capable replacement for Wood in the starting lineup?

I feel like they'd be better off pushing for a shooting guard. It's really hard for me to imagine Cuban paying Haywood to go away and then signing, say, Kaman. Maybe he's more willing to eat that salary that I think, but having dead money AND potentially being back in the luxury tax in a couple seasons can't make him feel good.

On the flip side, with so many teams under the cap, maybe there's a feeling that someone would put in a healthy bid for Haywood. It's not hard to imagine a team talking itself into Haywood at 5 Mil a season. That would save Cuban about 60% of the remaining contract.

There's just so many variables, it makes it hard to really discuss options without laying out the full scenario. If the Mavs sign Deron Williams and acquire a legitimate offensive shooting guard, the need for offensive production at center goes way, way down.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by jthig32

If the Mavs sign Deron Williams and acquire a legitimate offensive shooting guard, the need for offensive production at center goes way, way down.

But if you got a creator like Deron (or Nash for sure), wouldn't you want to have a capable and versatile finisher at the center position to get the most bang for your buck out of his penetration? An offensively capable SG is something I value more highly if Kidd sticks as the starting point.

[b_o_r]

Does Haywood have a trade-kicker in his contract? I think the odds are more in favor of him being traded than amnestied.

[j0Shi]

Honestly not excited about Carter's contract numbers. Thought it would be cheaper to get rid of him.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

But if you got a creator like Deron (or Nash for sure), wouldn't you want to have a capable and versatile finisher at the center position to get the most bang for your buck out of his penetration? An offensively capable SG is something I value more highly if Kidd sticks as the starting point.

I think that finisher might be Ian. If the Mavs think he'll take at least another small step forward, I could see a scenario where the same three centers are back next season, with Ian getting more consistent minutes.

Again, it all comes back to what Cuban is willing to spend. It's hard for me to imagine the Mavs paying Haywood 27Mil to go away, and then paying Ian 5Mil and some other center, what, ~8-9Mil?

Maybe he will, I don't know, but it seems unlikely to me right now.

[Scott McGuire]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Is that everything - what am I missing here?

DIRK?!?

[dirt_dobber]

Can't tell if it is a plus or minus that Odom's agent is the same as Deron, Kidd.
We did do the agent and Lamar a favor initially - but it turned out ugly.

Agent: Jeff Schwartz
Current NBA Players: 24
All-Star Players: 6
Maxed-out Players: 1
Agent Ranking: 2nd

hoopshype link http://hoopshype.com/agents/jeff_schwartz.htm

[rabbitproof]

I understand the annoyance at having to pay someone to go away but if the amnesty isn't used on someone like Haywood, who would it be used on? I don't think you want to pull a GSW and use it on someone like Charlie Bell. Think it would be a waste to shot your amnesty wad on someone like say VC.

That said, what would the market be like for Haywood as a trade option?

The dude is basically a starting center although due to his FT shooting, lack of general offense and lackadaisical heart at times, he plays limited minutes and zero crunch time minutes. So although it may be a superficial value, that "starting center" label should hold some value.

If necessary, you combo the 1st rounder and Roddy with Haywood. How attractive is that package?

I still think if you plan to use the amnesty at all, a fake starting center that is turning 33 with 27M due is your guy.

[Melonhead]

Had a dream that Deron Williams was signed to the Mavs. And that it was the plan all along and that Kidd and Deron was pulling our legs about the idea of staying in Brooklyn. Then I woke up. And no Dirk, my eyes weren't open unfortunately.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Scott McGuire

DIRK?!?

He's not an asset, he's the franchise.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by rabbitproof

I understand the annoyance at having to pay someone to go away but if the amnesty isn't used on someone like Haywood, who would it be used on?

Actually, you can only amnesty players who were on the roster before the new CBA went through... That means only Dirk, Haywood, Marion, Roddy and DoJo are eligible. You're obviously not amnestying Dirk and Roddy/DoJo aren't going to save you any money, so the ONLY two candidates are Haywood and Marion.

Of course, Cuban still has to pay anyone who gets amnestied (they just don't count against the cap), so he'd probably prefer to amnesty nobody and try to trade Haywood and/or Marion. The amnesty clause should really be viewed as a last-ditch effort to clear up cap space for incoming talent.

That said, I don't think anybody would trade for Haywood right now (although I'd keep the Bobcats and Raptors on speed dial just in case...)

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I think it's really hard to say. There are certainly scenarios where that 1.8 is really valuable and necessary, but you're right that's he's affordable and thus would seem easily trade able if necessary.



I feel like they'd be better off pushing for a shooting guard. It's really hard for me to imagine Cuban paying Haywood to go away and then signing, say, Kaman. Maybe he's more willing to eat that salary that I think, but having dead money AND potentially being back in the luxury tax in a couple seasons can't make him feel good.

On the flip side, with so many teams under the cap, maybe there's a feeling that someone would put in a healthy bid for Haywood. It's not hard to imagine a team talking itself into Haywood at 5 Mil a season. That would save Cuban about 60% of the remaining contract.

There's just so many variables, it makes it hard to really discuss options without laying out the full scenario. If the Mavs sign Deron Williams and acquire a legitimate offensive shooting guard, the need for offensive production at center goes way, way down.

Haywood, on one hand, you amnesty him, it doesn't touch the lux tax calculations, so that's working in our favor, now does brass think Ian can handle the starting center role? That's one factor to consider. The 2nd, factor is are we in on signing someone, or is he being amnestied to keep flexibility during the season? Interesting to see how they value the amnesty at this point, especially since Cubes has already said theere's going to be a market correction in summer 2013, given the lux tax factors.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

The 2nd, factor is are we in on signing someone, or is he being amnestied to keep flexibility during the season?

You can pretty much dismiss this as a consideration. There's zero chance he gets amnestied just for flexibility's sake.

[jacktruth]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I agree in the sense that they're not even going to think about cutting him loose without knowing exactly how the freed up funds will be used, but at the same time, don't you think that if Dallas can come to an agreement with one of the top 3 PGs on the market (Deron/Nash/Dragic), that it'll be incumbent upon them to make a hard push for a more offensively capable replacement for Wood in the starting lineup?

I think we need to pinch ourselves to a bit. This magical, capable offensive center that also has good defense that we are going to sign instead of Haywoood. . .he doesn't exist. There are about 4 guys in the league that match that description. None of them are free agents.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by jacktruth

I think we need to pinch ourselves to a bit. This magical, capable offensive center that also has good defense that we are going to sign instead of Haywoood. . .he doesn't exist. There are about 4 guys in the league that match that description. None of them are free agents.

Chris Kaman (UFA) is a capable offensive center that also has good defense...

[Budapest Maverick]

Kaman had one absolute monster year with the Clippers, 15/12 with almost 3 blocks. Playing next to Dirk and Deron, he would be good for 15 again, i have no doubt in my mind, and would likely get 10 rebounds, and 1,5-1,8 block per game. So a solid center, if healthy. Not nearly the defender Asik is, but a good 2-way center nonetheless. Also, already has experience playing next to Dirk. Still, i'd prefer Asik i think, too bad he's restricted. Nobody knows how far the Bulls go to resign him. I can't believe i'm saying this, but what if we offer Roddy for Asik? Could we do that?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

I can't believe i'm saying this, but what if we offer Roddy for Asik? Could we do that?

You could offer, sure... But you'd probably have to include a LOT of drugs.

[DirkFTW]

Originally Posted by Scott McGuire

DIRK?!?

Now I feel really dumb posting a Monty Python bit instead of noticing this.

[Budapest Maverick]

Originally Posted by Underdog

You could offer, sure... But you'd probably have to include a LOT of drugs.

Meh, i don't know about that. Roddy could be a good fit for them, and it's not like Asik ever going to play much on that team. They know his potential is great, but Noah is, and will be the starting center. So they might as well trade Asik for a (still) talented combo guard, and get something in return. I don't think that's unrealistic, even though Asik is a big.

[bobatundi]

If only we'd amnestied Haywood and re-signed Chandler...we'd already have the starting Center we need, and be ~$15MM under the cap for next year, probably enough to convince Deron to sign if he wants to come here...enough so that he could force the Nets into a S&T to get a max deal anyway.

[DirkFTW]

Originally Posted by bobatundi

If only we'd amnestied Haywood and re-signed Chandler...we'd already have the starting Center we need, and be ~$15MM under the cap for next year, probably enough to convince Deron to sign if he wants to come here...enough so that he could force the Nets into a S&T to get a max deal anyway.

Ugh, this makes my head and heart hurt.

[aexchange]

Originally Posted by bobatundi

If only we'd amnestied Haywood and re-signed Chandler...we'd already have the starting Center we need, and be ~$15MM under the cap for next year, probably enough to convince Deron to sign if he wants to come here...enough so that he could force the Nets into a S&T to get a max deal anyway.

I love Chandler, but you do realize his past 2 years in the league have been complete outliers over his historical durability. Having 3 years and $42M left on a deal is not something to look forward to when you have the potential FA class that is shaping up for 2013.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by bobatundi

If only we'd amnestied Haywood and re-signed Chandler...we'd already have the starting Center we need, and be ~$15MM under the cap for next year, probably enough to convince Deron to sign if he wants to come here...enough so that he could force the Nets into a S&T to get a max deal anyway.

Except we wouldn't be 15MM under the cap.

[Ninkobei]

Can't argue against re-signing chandler. Burning money on an injured Chandler is MUCH better than burning it on a worthless Haywood. But, what is done is done.

I'm prepared for a rebuilding year this year. It's just too bad there aren't any blue-chip young guys for us to pick up.

There's that russian PG, Goran Dragic I think Cubes will end up getting to replace Terry.

Dragic notched his eighth double-double of the season Wednesday with team highs of 20 points and 10 assists. He added two rebounds and two steals, but also committed six turnovers. Dragic's production as a starter this year has been ridiculous. In 23 starts he's averaged 18.2 points on 50 percent shooting, 39 percent from deep, and 86 percent from the line, 3.5 boards, 8.4 assists, 1.9 steals, and just under two treys a game.

And possible Chris Kaman.

I kind of hope we keep Mahinmi, but that guy is going to get a good sized pay day I believe.

[nowhereman]

The problem is that every other team with money is going to chase Dragic or Kaman or tender a big offer to Hibbert. Overpaying for them may not be enough - we'll probably have to grossly overpay over a number of years. How much are those guys worth?

If the mavs don't sign Deron, I don't expect to see them blow the money on secondary targets. I'd expect them to find a key player in the amnesty pile, try to move up in the draft, purchase a pick if they can, and tender some short 2 or 3 year deals to vets who's windows correspond with Dirk's (and with the drastic tax hikes).

[Ninkobei]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

The problem is that every other team with money is going to chase Dragic or Kaman or tender a big offer to Hibbert. Overpaying for them may not be enough - we'll probably have to grossly overpay over a number of years. How much are those guys worth?

If the mavs don't sign Deron, I don't expect to see them blow the money on secondary targets. I'd expect them to find a key player in the amnesty pile, try to move up in the draft, purchase a pick if they can, and tender some short 2 or 3 year deals to vets who's windows correspond with Dirk's (and with the drastic tax hikes).

The new CBA thing no longer allows purchasing draft picks. Trading up on the other hand would be awesome. Dallas definitely needs a young guy with high potential. If we roll one-year-contract vet players out again this year I am going to do some serious yelling. That's not how to build a team. I'd rather a team full of all rookies.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Ninkobei

The new CBA thing no longer allows purchasing draft picks. Trading up on the other hand would be awesome. Dallas definitely needs a young guy with high potential. If we roll one-year-contract vet players out again this year I am going to do some serious yelling. That's not how to build a team. I'd rather a team full of all rookies.

Nothing stopping you from purchasing a pick, but if you spend 3 Mil on it you can't send any cash in any other trades for rest of the year.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by bobatundi

If only we'd amnestied Haywood and re-signed Chandler...we'd already have the starting Center we need, and be ~$15MM under the cap for next year, probably enough to convince Deron to sign if he wants to come here...enough so that he could force the Nets into a S&T to get a max deal anyway.

What kind of voodoo math are using to get there? Dirk/chandler/Marion puts you significantly closer to the cap than 15 mil under and that doesn't include cap holds for the other positions

[KillerLeft]

Unless Williams signs here, I'd say there's very little chance Haywood gets amnestied, and even if they lock Williams up...it's still iffy.

Cuban won't want to pay the guy to play for another team, trust me. I'd say DoJo and Roddy are both more likely candidates.