2024 Western Conference Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

[Melonhead]

Congratulations to the team for getting to the western conference finals after missing the play in. Hard fought and well deserved.

It?s been an all hands on deck to get to this point, including Nico?s work in the offseason as well as the trade deadline. Quick shout out to Kidd, many of us think he?s slow to adjustments but the team has rallied around him and that?s what matters. What a time to be a Mavs fan.

And we are in for a hell of a series. Mavs will be facing another team with a rising star in Anthony Edwards. It?s time to put these pups to bed ala Dirk v Garnett.

May 22 Game 1 Wed @ 7:30
May 24 Game 2 Friday @ 7:30
May 26 Game 3 Sunday @ 7:00
May 28 Game 4 Tuesday @ 7:30
May 30 Game 5 Thursday @ 7:30
June 1 Game 6 Saturday @ 7:30
June 3 Game 7 Monday @ 7:30


(Maxi we need you)

[MFFL]

Lets go Mavs!

This will be a hard test but I think we have a strong chance. Hopefully Maxi will come back and will help with their 3 headed big rotation.

[BPo001]

Going to be a tough series, but it?s the WCF. Let?s go Mavs!

[Amarelooms]

Originally Posted by MFFL

Lets go Mavs!

This will be a hard test but I think we have a strong chance. Hopefully Maxi will come back and will help with their 3 headed big rotation.

Need maxi bad

[Amarelooms]

Also sucks no extra days off. Play every other day.

[EricaLubarsky]

Wish we had Kleber. His ability to hit a three completely destroyed Gobert.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

6-7 game series again. Book it.

[blessednegr0]

We've got this one. The boys are grooving right now. Let's just get one in Minnesota and defend home.

[Melonhead]

Ant Edwards was 6/24 due to being hit with double teams last night

[ShaggyDirk]

Hopefully, we can neutralize Gobert to just an offensive rebounder on one end and a help defender on the other side of the ball.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Might consider playing Gaff and Lively together at some point.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Might consider playing Gaff and Lively together at some point.

Eh, I wouldn't. Neither of them can do anything offensively outside of 2-3 feet.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

Eh, I wouldn't. Neither of them can do anything offensively outside of 2-3 feet.

True, but you're gonna have big trouble with Goebert and Towns on the court at the same time.

This is where Maxi would be valuable if he could come back.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Might consider playing Gaff and Lively together at some point.

Not sure Kidd would do that in this series unless we get desperate.
But next season I wouldn't mind seeing us experiment with something like that if one of them develop a decent shot.

[EricaLubarsky]

I could see Lively/Kleber but I don't see Gafford/Lively.

If KAT is driving/not posting up then I could see PJ/DJJ harassing him into a lot of TOs. Lively matches up with Gobert for the defense/rebound.

If KAT is posting up? KAT uses his weight well, but not necessarily length so Gafford should be a good match up.

Rebounding was a strength in the OKC series, but we are not at a rebounding advantage. KAT/Gobert is an elite rebounding team. Reid, Garza, and Anderson are all 6'9" and elite rebounders.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

True, but you're gonna have big trouble with Goebert and Towns on the court at the same time.

This is where Maxi would be valuable if he could come back.

I'll take my chances with DJJ and PJ on KAT. Putting Lively and Gafford on the court at the same time is offensive suicide.

[EricaLubarsky]

Offensive rating
Minny - 6th - 116.7
Dallas - 7th - 113.9

3pt%
Dallas - 6th - 36.6%
Minny - 8th - 35.8%

Dallas - 7th - 113.9
Defensive rating
Minny - 4th - 107.6
Dallas - 6th - 110.6

Rebound %
Minny - 2nd - 54.1%
Dallas - 6th - 51.5%

TO%
Minny - 11th - 13.3
Dallas - 12th - 13.8

Pace
Dallas - 8th - 93.38
Minny - 10th - 93.0

Not gonna lie. Minny leads in nearly every category. They have no weak underbelly like OKC's rebounding. On the other hand, OKC also led us in every statistical category.

Keys to the Series
1) Rebounding - they will probably win, but we have to keep it close
2) TO - We were good in the regular season. We were awful in the OKC series. The advantage we got from rebounding was counter-acted by TOs. We may need to to the opposite-- cut TOs to make up for the rebounding
3) Pace - hard to get pace without rebounding, but they are weak getting back. Gotta punish them when we have a chance.
4) Fouls - Gotta win the PF battle. Maybe even get them into foul trouble. Gobert/KAT are foul prone and getting them out of the game or at least playing carefully to avoid fouls could be a great advantage.
5) 3pt shooting - we have a slight advantage there and we're going to need it. With both bigs and a bunch of long defenders, we will need spacing more than at any time his POs. Kleber is shooting 56%. Irving 44%. PJail 41%. All are better options than Luka (30%). Maximize the good threes and reduce the number of Luka step-back threes and we could win the shooting battle.
6) Selflessness - ISOs are not going to work against that crazy length with two 7-footers backing them up. Gonna need to play selflessly and make the second, third, and even fourth pass. Luckily Kidd has us playing selflessly. We're going to need it. Plus pocket passes and passes into the weak side are great at a) high percentage shots and b) drawing fouls

[purplefrog]

I think Gafford/Lively on Rudy and PJ on KAT would work reasonably well. If PJ gets in foul trouble, then I can maybe see playing Gaff and DLive at the same time. Another interesting match up could be if KAT and Naz Reid play side by side. The TWolves would have two bigs that can both shoot 3s and I am not sure Gaff/Lively can keep up with that if both are hitting their shots. On the other hand, the TWolves become less potent defensively as their shot blocker is on the bench, so maybe its a wash.

[G-Man]

What an unlikely bunch.

No Mavs fan in his right mind expected DJJ and PJ to become the scoring, shooting heroes of the OKC series. They saved our bacon during the games where Luka was nursing injuries, and again in game 6 when he was better. I'd be surprised if they continue at this pace, but at least now we, and the opponents know its possible. The Wolves will have to defend them, which should make things easier for Kai and Luka.

The size of Minnesota scares me, as does Edwards himself. Maxi could help here, but I'm not counting on him being effective if he does return.

As in both series before, the opponents have far more talent, but the Mavs can win if they play good team ball. Remember, in the championship year, all the teams they played had more talent. Yet they swept the 2 time champion Lakers, beat Harden, KD and Westbrook in 5, and Miami's big three in six.

Great team ball can beat great talent. That's what we had when Kidd led this team in 2011. Maybe he can lead them like that now, from the bench.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by G-Man

What an unlikely bunch.

No Mavs fan in his right mind expected DJJ and PJ to become the scoring, shooting heroes of the OKC series. They saved our bacon during the games where Luka was nursing injuries, and again in game 6 when he was better. I'd be surprised if they continue at this pace, but at least now we, and the opponents know its possible. The Wolves will have to defend them, which should make things easier for Kai and Luka.

The size of Minnesota scares me, as does Edwards himself. Maxi could help here, but I'm not counting on him being effective if he does return.

As in both series before, the opponents have far more talent, but the Mavs can win if they play good team ball. Remember, in the championship year, all the teams they played had more talent. Yet they swept the 2 time champion Lakers, beat Harden, KD and Westbrook in 5, and Miami's big three in six.

Great team ball can beat great talent. That's what we had when Kidd led this team in 2011. Maybe he can lead them like that now, from the bench.

I hear what you're saying, but I don't know that I would agree that Minnesota has "far more" talent. Maybe slightly more. They probably have more talented role players, but I think the Mavs still have two of the three best players in the series. If Luka is actually playing like Luka, he's the best player left in the playoffs, and I think Kyrie is a good deal better than anyone on the Wolves outside of ANT.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by G-Man

As in both series before, the opponents have far more talent...

I definitely bought into this at the beginning of the playoffs. I do not believe this anymore. Mavs have the talent to match up with anyone. Helps when you have Luka and Kyrie heading that up, followed by quite the cast that has stepped up tremendously in the playoffs.

DJJ - arguably one of the top defenders in the league
PJ - he's been a known quantity in this league and it took him some time to find his footing, but he's arrived. Consistency on offense will follow his base defense and effort
Gafford - arguably one of the best rim runners and protectors in the league, highest FG % in however long
Lively - would have been 1st team all-rookie if not for games missed
Green/Kleber/Exum/THJ/Hardy/Omax - certainly worse backend rotations out there

[DevinHarriswillstart]

4 days off for Luka should be just the right amount of time to be relatively healthy.

And thank god no more afternoon games.

[EricaLubarsky]

talent is hard to quantify, but what is guaranteed is not a single person-- not even Mavs fan Legler chose us to win the series.

I like being the underdog. If we lose, it was ordained and not a disappointment. If we win (as we did against the Clippers and then Thunder), then we shock the world.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

talent is hard to quantify, but what is guaranteed is not a single person-- not even Mavs fan Legler chose us to win the series.

I like being the underdog. If we lose, it was ordained and not a disappointment. If we win (as we did against the Clippers and then Thunder), then we shock the world.

He clarified on twitter and some podcast he has the Mavs winning the series. First take question was taken out of context

Also Tim Bontemps of all people, and another guy on hoop collective both took Mavs.

[Melonhead]

I do worry about Wolves ability to just blow a game open and there?s no return from the opposing team. Almost all of their wins esp Denver were absolute destruction and Denver never recovered in those games.

In other words Kidd will need to call timeouts instead of watching a huge run happen. As explosive as Ant is, I think he?ll be easier to contain than SGA. He?s more up and down where SGA was guaranteed 30 points.

The two X factors that worry me are Mike Conley and Naz Reid.

I like the Mavs chances though.

[blessednegr0]

We are picking the Mavs. Doesn't matter what the Media opinion is. We know we are talented enough to advance to the Finals.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

As explosive as Ant is, I think he?ll be easier to contain than SGA. He?s more up and down where SGA was guaranteed 30 points.

I tend to agree. They're both phenomenal, but between the two of them, I think SGA is the more lethal scorer. Game 6 probably should have been a blowout, or at least a very comfortable victory for the Mavs at the end, but SGA just hit every insane shot, no matter how well he was guarded.

The flipside though is that ANT is a far better defensive player, so Kyrie and probably occasionally Luka too will have a harder time scoring. Also, the Wolves have more offensive weapons for ANT to pass to than the Thunder.

On that note, I don't think we can win this series with Kyrie being invisible in the first half and only showing up in the second half. We need him to come out with guns blazing.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

talent is hard to quantify, but what is guaranteed is not a single person-- not even Mavs fan Legler chose us to win the series.

I like being the underdog. If we lose, it was ordained and not a disappointment. If we win (as we did against the Clippers and then Thunder), then we shock the world.

Legler did pick us to win.

https://youtube.com/shorts/KyWG8rPaG...ic7v75O4MmzrLZ

I agree, I like us as underdogs and I think the team does as well.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

I do worry about Wolves ability to just blow a game open and there?s no return from the opposing team. Almost all of their wins esp Denver were absolute destruction and Denver never recovered in those games.

In other words Kidd will need to call timeouts instead of watching a huge run happen. As explosive as Ant is, I think he?ll be easier to contain than SGA. He?s more up and down where SGA was guaranteed 30 points.

The two X factors that worry me are Mike Conley and Naz Reid.

I like the Mavs chances though.

Reid is my sole X factor as he easily provides an edge for them being far and away the best 6th man options between the teams. Really would be helpful to have Maxi return if only for his defensive flexibility and size. Anything on offense from him is bonus. Conley I'm much less concerned about. He also has been nursing an Achilles injury so I'd be a bit nervous as a Wolves fan. He went down and even ANT called him the most important piece. They don't have shit else as far as PG is concerned. We certainly have the personnel to make it very hard on Conley. Just for the love of God, please stop leaving shooters open on the perimeter. Conley will make you pay...

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

I tend to agree. They're both phenomenal, but between the two of them, I think SGA is the more lethal scorer. Game 6 probably should have been a blowout, or at least a very comfortable victory for the Mavs at the end, but SGA just hit every insane shot, no matter how well he was guarded.

The flipside though is that ANT is a far better defensive player, so Kyrie and probably occasionally Luka too will have a harder time scoring. Also, the Wolves have more offensive weapons for ANT to pass to than the Thunder.

On that note, I don't think we can win this series with Kyrie being invisible in the first half and only showing up in the second half. We need him to come out with guns blazing.

See, initially I too was concerned about ANT and his defense. No doubt is he a plus on that end, but then I caught earlier season highlights of both Kyrie and Luka cooking him. I HOPE they allow him to expend that energy on defense as it will only serve to diminish returns on offense.

Speaking of, I'm not one bit concerned about our team defense for once in this playoffs. As good as ANT is, he tends to have some decent off games. And then you look for that consistent 2nd option a la Kyrie and KAT ain't it. The guy is so overrated and overpaid it's not funny. Still, he can fill it up from time to time and should maintain defensive respect. Speaking of, our bigs + PJ should wear him out on defense, as well.

Outside of that? Nobody on that team worries me the same as a PJ option or the like. Not saying it will be easy by any stretch, I just think the Wolves defensive superiority was over blown after the first couple of games against Denver, specifically game 1 where they were allowed to maul the Nuggets all game long.

[SMC0007]

Reid has been underrated for a long time. Two different times, I have wanted Mavs to go get him. Giving him flowers before the series even starts. Maxi would provide similar peoblems foe them.

I would put Luka on him or Kat and assume they would run whoever Kai is guarding through a screen to start their miss matches to open the floor up. We have been good at switching back and working to stay sized up as much as possible. The guys have been communicating really well defensively. Scrambling on defense could be the deciding factor in this series.

If Maxi is available thisnseries, I would definitely throw looks of Lively and Gafford together to clean the glass. You have to defend and rebound to win and we need to plant our flag on the dwfensive end and be willing to sacrifice a little offense to rebound the ball after a good defensive possession.

I know people think gaff and lively will allow their bigs to clog yhe paint and dare us to shoot, but thats ok for periods of time. Thata what screens/picks are for. Get them scrambling and one of the bigs crashing the paint.

Bottom line is, the difference in us getting back here this time has been based on defense.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by saclare

Not saying it will be easy by any stretch, I just think the Wolves defensive superiority was over blown after the first couple of games against Denver, specifically game 1 where they were allowed to maul the Nuggets all game long.

You might think it?s overblown but the wolves were the number 1 defensive rated team for the entire season. You can?t fake that. And who knows what the refs decide to allow the wolves to get away with this series.

[saclare]

Defense for sure, it's all come together on that end. Just have to keep up the intensity.

As for your point on bigs clogging the paint, I found it interesting that all three (gotta count Powell since he was there lol) were taking a lot of corner threes and splashing them. Makes me think they might try to leak a big out to the corner a time or two to add a wrinkle for the Wolves to think about. Would be huge to draw Gobert out of the paint. Not nearly concerned about KAT and his defense or lack thereof.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

You might think it?s overblown but the wolves were the number 1 defensive rated team for the entire season. You can?t fake that. And who knows what the refs decide to allow the wolves to get away with this series.

I don't want to confuse overblown with overrated or anything like that. They're a damn good defensive team. I meant more the media gushing over a style that was clearly allowed in game 1 of that series. It was weird and the calls came crashing back even in game 2 despite them winning that one.

They have the best wing defender and best big defender (DPOY). They are going to make it tough for sure but early season clips show that it can be done.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Perhaps we could keep the "get Luka off my team" opinions to yourself this series? Guy was dealing with serious injuries and yet people just can't help themselves.

There is not a worse basketball opinion on earth than wanting Luka off the team.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by saclare

I don't want to confuse overblown with overrated or anything like that. They're a damn good defensive team. I meant more the media gushing over a style that was clearly allowed in game 1 of that series. It was weird and the calls came crashing back even in game 2 despite them winning that one.

They have the best wing defender and best big defender (DPOY). They are going to make it tough for sure but early season clips show that it can be done.

I see what you?re saying. I won?t be shocked if the refs allow one game in the series where they maul our guys

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

You might think it?s overblown but the wolves were the number 1 defensive rated team for the entire season. You can?t fake that. And who knows what the refs decide to allow the wolves to get away with this series.

That's why I would be aggressive right off tip. If the refs are going to let anyone get away with extra physical defense, we need to be the ones to help them calibrate how the game is called. We can't go into the series expecting to get calls and end up complaining our way to fairness.

Last thing I want to see is Wolves getting away with extra sht for 2 or 3 quarters, then the refs calibrate how they call fouls. By then we will be complaining about Harden and Shai type touch fouls.

All I want is fair calls and as close to consistent as possible.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by saclare

Defense for sure, it's all come together on that end. Just have to keep up the intensity.

As for your point on bigs clogging the paint, I found it interesting that all three (gotta count Powell since he was there lol) were taking a lot of corner threes and splashing them. Makes me think they might try to leak a big out to the corner a time or two to add a wrinkle for the Wolves to think about. Would be huge to draw Gobert out of the paint. Not nearly concerned about KAT and his defense or lack thereof.

I'd rsther see a confident stroke by our bigs on some 3's than unforced turnovers by our guards. Hell, at least we are getting shots off.

I'm still shocked that we won game 6 with 17...17 turnovers

[EricaLubarsky]

Kidd used our size to dominate the Thunder on the boards. Now his biggest challenge is to overcome the massive size deficit we have against the Wolves.

[Melonhead]

Nick Wright picks Mavs in 6:

https://x.com/ftfonfs1/status/179291...P-fUxROA9UvgJA

Also the only guy on tv to bring up what Luka has accomplished so far

https://x.com/ftfonfs1/status/179273...P-fUxROA9UvgJA