Predict next season's starting line and minutes per game

[sike]

assuming no major moves are made....if you like, you can add a new 4/5 in the line...

Terry 31 mpg (once again seeing primary PT at the point with Harris biting at his heals...Terry proves even more to be a great big shot maker but not a true play making point guard)
Stack 30 mpg (this is wishful thinking, but it would also be the best thing for the Mavs)
Howard 35 mpg (continues to make about 25 teams wish they called his name on draft day)
Dirk 36 mpg (finds a way to further develop his game...look for him to average 4 dimes a game...scoring goes down but rebounding goes up)
Damp 32 mpg (with another year under his belt and a full year of AJ we see a 10 and 9 center who quietly changes the game every night)

Harris 17 mpg (early on will still look like a rook with wide eyes and pure talent...but by midseason will be the best option at the 1 for the Mavs...after a while the talent will mix with experience...and a star will be born)
Daniels 20-24 mpg (I would love to see him be the primary backup 2/3 with Finley playing no more than 15-20 a night. Look for him to help us forget last season)
Finley 15-20 mpg a night (how many minutes does a spot up shooter get with a new coach when winning and developing for the future are more of a concern than remembering the "old days"?)
KVH 15mpg (play him behing Dirk if you can't get anything better)
Pavel/Henderson/Shawn/or New back 14 mpg (getting any back up time behind Damp depends on matchups many nights)

what do you think you'll see next season?

[dalmations202]

IMO;

Terry 28 mpg (once again seeing primary PT at the point with Harris biting at his heals...)
Stack 28 mpg (this is wishful thinking, but it would also be the best thing for the Mavs)
Howard 32 mpg (continues to make about 25 teams wish they called his name on draft day...foul trouble keeps him from logging more)
Dirk 36 mpg (finds a way to further develop his game...look for him to post more...)
Damp 27 mpg (avg 9 and 9 back to his avg self..........foul trouble keeps him from logging more.)

Harris 16-20 mpg (by midseason will be the best option at the 1 for the Mavs...will look great to begin season, but soph slump will hit late in the season)
Daniels 16-20 mpg (Look for him to help us forget last season -- and have big improvement - making them glad they didn't trade him)
Finley 24-28 mpg a night (spot up shooter - who will excel as the 6th man)
KVH 15-20mpg (play him behind Dirk/Howard/Damp)
Pavel/DJ/Shawn/or New 4/5 -- 14 mpg (any of these can get playing time sporadically and earn all the minutes they want....the only way to get more is to play D, rebound, and be a force in the middle -- any can get even more minutes if they can do these three things and provide clean up/roll duty on the offensive end)

[grndmstr_c]

Harris - 18 mpg. I'm a bit less optimistic about his play next year than Nellie, but a consistent 18 sounds to me like it would strike the right balance between developmental concerns centered on Harris, and the requirement that the Mavs get solid minutes from their other, most likely somewhat more effective, backcourt players.

Josh - 32 mpg. I expect him to take the next step to being clearly the second best player on the team next year. He'll be indispensable enough that coach will want to keep him on the court more than this, but you don't want to wear your top guys out, either. Here again, 32 feels like a good compromise (actually, 34 seemed a bit better, but then I started thinking about the other 4 guys at the 1/2/3 and realized I needed to find some minutes somewhere).

Stack - 20 mpg. Getting tricky now. If Fin's ankle heals up and the old dog can rediscover some of his old form (I think he will) then Stack will again deservedly be behind Mike in the rotation. Don't think you can drop his minutes below 20, but with the depth the Mavs have it'll be hard to get them any higher than that.

Terry - 28 mpg. Terry will be better next year, and will deserve somewhere in the 34-36 mpg range, but with Harris needing (and getting) consistent minutes, and with the depth at the 2/3 undercutting the primary incentive to play the two of them together much, he'll be well rested when the playoffs roll around.

Fin - 26 mpg. I've hinted at it above: I expect a subtle sort of bounce-back year from Fin. The addition of some shooting in the frontcourt with KVH means Fin's jumper won't be quite as essential as it was most of last year, but I won't at all be suprised if he (again) sports the best +/- of the Mavs' SG's, and the minute distribution will reflect that.

Quis - 18 mpg. To get above this level I expect he'll have to not only get his jumper out to 18 feet more consistent, but will have to prove that he's an upgrade defensively over Fin/Stack as well, something he's yet to do. 05/06 will be kinder to him than last year, but I'm not sure he's quite ready to break out in a deep backcourt.

Dirk - 34 mpg. On the low side for Dirk, but with a backup like Keith the Mavs would be foolish not to take advantage of the situation to keep Dirk as fresh as possible.

Damp - 28 mpg.

KVH - 24 mpg. He'll see time behind and alongside Dirk. A few minutes here and there at SF.

??? - there's 12 minutes left if I count right (excluding injuries and the occasional OT game, of course). Some of the frontcourt distribution could depend on how well the Mavs manage to address the backup center spot - ie., if they manage to get a good player you could see KVH's minutes take a hit to make a little room for him. If the guy they get is a question mark then Dirk, Damp, and KVH all might see subtle increases in their pt.

[Misfit Mav]

It's a tough call. We've got a log jam, well, almost everywhere. I'm of the opinion that we have a little too much scoring talent on the bench, and not enough utility guys. It's an asset, but one that can turn into a distraction or a problem if not managed properly. This is my stab at what I think the minutes distribution should be next year, pretty similar to what you guys have above:

Terry 28 - Harris 20
Stackhouse 22 - Finley 22 - Marquis 4
Howard 32 - Marquis 16
Dirk 28 - Van Horn 20
Dampier 30 - Dirk 8 - Bradley/DJ/Pavel - 10

[kg_veteran]

I've mulled this over quite a bit, and I'm still not sure how it's going to play out. Even without acquiring a backup center, the Mavs have 9 guys who would like to play at least 30 mpg. That's mathematically impossible, so there are some things that are going to have to shake out. I could ramble on for several pages (and probably will, later in the summer, when I have/take the time), but one thing I see as pretty glaring is the need to move Stackhouse on down the road. The team would be much better off if Daniels could become consistent and step up his game to the point where Avery felt comfortable starting him or at least using him in a backup capacity behind Finley and Howard.

One other interesting thought to ponder: How many "He'd be great as a sixth man" guys do we have? By my count, it's about 4. The problem is, you can really only have 1, maybe 2.

The team has some choices to make.

[Stressboy]

I'm fully on board with kg, there are tons of decisions that have to be made with this team. Sike I posted some crazy ideas to get a 5th or 6th pick in the draft and you guys just said no way we don't need anything else and yet you put Danials in for 24 minutes a game and KVH for only 15. Danials can't hit the broad side of the ocean past 14 feet and if that does not change quickly I say we have to ship him east. The 6th pick could get a really nice player like Antoine Wright who can do everything Danials can and oh yea he shoots. KVH has to be moved for value now or at the deadline. You don't keep 15mil as your backup 4. The only way Cubes keeps KVH and lets him walk next summer is if there is a super tax and the Mavs are way into it. The same goes for Fin if he is a 15-20 minute guy. Move him. Bradley needs to be gone, the team and the fans deserve that. I'm not saying I don't respect the guy or his game, it is just past his time here.

I really like Terry and his clutch shooting (except in the phoenix series), but he is not the solution at the 1. Harris might be, but we don't know. I think I would prefer Terry to be my 6th man, but if Harris is not the guy, then Terry has to play unless we decide to do somehting different on that front.

The only thing I do know is that Josh, Dirk and Damp are set and for the right trade, Damp or Josh can be had (Kobe level talent).

Josh 34min
Dirk 38min
Damp 30min

All else is pure speculation. The cool thing is that last year at this time, we had Dirk and maybe Danials and maybe Josh penciled in for the future. Now we have 3 solid contributors(some will disagree on Damp), and a lot more maybes in Terry, Harris, Stack, Danials.

Stressboy

[grndmstr_c]

I'll never understand the idea that you should automatically trade anybody who's making big money without playing big minutes. You don't trade guys unless the players you're getting back can help you more than the guys you're giving up. It's almost unthinkable to me that that would be possible with Finley. It's unlikely that's going to happen with Bradley. With KVH the options are more realistic and palatable, but the only ways I can see the Mavs moving Keith are in a deal for a Pierce-type talent, or in a 1-for-2 sort of deal where one of the contracts they get back is expiring and at least one of the guys they get back is someone the Mavs feel would fit well long-term. The savings he represents to Mark when that contract expires are significant enough that they will not and should not move the guy simply because his dollar per minute ratio is high.

[kg_veteran]

Originally posted by: Stressboy
The only thing I do know is that Josh, Dirk and Damp are set and for the right trade, Damp or Josh can be had (Kobe level talent).

Josh 34min
Dirk 38min
Damp 30min

All else is pure speculation.

Weird. I nearly posted this exact same thing. I was going to say that the only thing we know for sure is Dirk for 36-38 mpg, Josh for 34 mpg, and Damp for 30 mpg, with everything else still up in the air.

I am convinced Stackhouse has to go. If Daniels can't figure out how to shoot and defend better, he's going to have to be moved as well. I'm going to have to go and check out some of your trade scenarios, Stressboy, because I'd really like to find a way to upgrade this team at SG without moving Howard or Harris.

[#1MavsFan]

Terry 28 - Harris 15 - Marquis 5
Finley 29 - Stackhouse 13 - Marquis 6
Howard 32 - Stackhouse 7 - Marquis 9
Dirk 26 - Van Horn 20 - DJ 2
Dampier 30 - Dirk 12 - Bradley/DJ/Pavel - 6

[kg_veteran]

Originally posted by: #1MavsFan
Terry 28 - Harris 15 - Marquis 5
Finley 29 - Stackhouse 13 - Marquis 6
Howard 32 - Stackhouse 7 - Marquis 9
Dirk 26 - Van Horn 20 - DJ 2
Dampier 30 - Dirk 12 - Bradley/DJ/Pavel - 6

The problem that I have with a rotation like this is that it's not realistic. You've got three guys off the bench getting exactly 20 mpg. One of those three guys is going to be better than the other 2, and he's going to get more minutes. That leaves the other 2 unhappy. Second, you have no true backup center in your rotation (which is going to be the case with any realistic rotation created from the existing roster).

To me, this is the only sure part of the rotation next year:

Dampier 30
Dirk 36
Howard 34

That's 100 minutes between 3 starters, with 140 minutes to split between everybody else. Then you figure that you'll have 2 more starters who should average at least 30 mpg. That's 160 minutes for the starters, with 80 minutes to give to the bench.

Dampier 30
Dirk 36
Howard 34
Starting SG 30
Starting PG 30

Now, you'd figure that the 18 mpg at backup PG is going to the PG who doesn't start, so pencil that in. You'd also figure that the 18 mpg at backup C is going to go to a C, which means that one has to be acquired or they have to elevate either DJ or Pavel to that role. I'd say an offseason acquisition is more likely. So that gives you 7 guys getting 196 mpg, with 44 mpg left to hand out.

Dampier 30 - backup C 18
Dirk 36
Howard 34
Starting SG 30
Starting PG 30 - backup PG 18

44 mpg to go between KVH and two of the SG/SF types. That's not going to fly. Move one of Stackhouse/Daniels/Finley (in a deal for a backup C?) and it at least unclogs things some, because one of the remaining SG/SF will probably start. That means 44 mpg to split between KVH and the SG/SF that doesn't start. That's workable. As an example:

Dampier 30 - backup C 18
Dirk 36 - KVH 12
Howard 34 - KVH 10 - Daniels 4
Finley 30 - Daniels 18
Terry 30 - Harris 18

An alternative is to move KVH (and one of the SG/SF types) and then acquire a backup C who could also relieve Dirk. Something like this:

Dampier 30 - backup C 18
Dirk 36 - backup C 12
Howard 34 - Daniels 14
Finley 30 - Daniels 18
Terry 30 - Harris 18

I'm not as big of a fan of that, simply because there's not as much depth up front. Also, that looks to be much more difficult to accomplish, because when you start talking about 4/5s capable of playing 30 mpg, you're talking about a pretty darn good player who won't be easy to acquire.

Oh well, said I wouldn't ramble, but I did...

[Stressboy]

grndmstr_c,

I'm not saying you have to trade big money guys, but this is a chemistry issue. We traded Jamison to get a backup 1 and stack mainly for chemistry issues. We traded A walker for chemistry issues. We will trade Stack or Fin for chemistry issues. We will trade danials becuase he has value and he is not the answer. If Nellie were still the coach he might have been, but not now. We need better outside shooting. When Fin was on we were unbeatable, when he was not on, we were very beatable. Terry/Fin and maybe Harris are the only dependable outside shooters we have with Dirk playing the midrange to low post game in Avery's system.

There is also the need to get value. We traded hendu/booth and had we never got hendu back the KVH trade would still have been a steal. If you can turn KVH into your young shooting 2 guard, then I say go for it. If you think Paul can run our team better than Harris or Terry, then I say trade any 1 to two of harris/Danials/stack/KVH to get #3. If you think getting Bogut or Williams would allow you to beat the spurs then trading Terry/Stack/Danials/Benga to get the #1 would be a no brainer.

There is something to be said for no change, but until you get all the pieces in place change is not a real worry for me. Look at the spurs. They had Parker and still pursued Kidd so much so that it cost them Josh Howard. They let Stephen Jackson walk after they had Ginobli. Right now Parker/Ginobli/Duncan maybe Bowen are their locked in players. Even so they will continue to seek a better 5 and probably a more skilled 3.

We are closer today than this time last year, but we still have a long way to go from #5 in the league to #1.

[grndmstr_c]

I'm on board with looking for something to do with Stack. I imagine his trade value stacks (pardon the pun) up pretty well to his value to the Mavs as a player.

Quis I'm not sure about. Maybe he's the answer, maybe he's not, but I feel more confident he can contribute next year than I am that Dallas could get much value for him in trade after the disappointing second year; hence, I'm not much in favor of moving him.

Antawn was traded because he asked for a trade and the Mavs got a good deal for him. Toine was traded because he was a chemistry problem. Fin has not asked for a trade, is unlikely to bring a good return, and is not a chemistry problem. I just don't see how the Mavs gain anything by trading him away.

As for Keith, as I said, I just think he represents too much in monetary savings to go in anything other than a nobrainer for an elite player or a multi-player deal with some money still coming off the books next year and the other guy a likely long-term solution at one position or another. If one of those types of deals presents themselves, jump on it. I'm just saying that the argument that he should go because he gets paid a lot without playing 35 mpg doesn't really do much for me by itself.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c
I'm on board with looking for something to do with Stack. I imagine his trade value stacks (pardon the pun) up pretty well to his value to the Mavs as a player.

I'm also of the opinion that we've got a major logjam at the 2. It wasn't a problem this year because Quis was injured, but eventually one of those 3 guys is going to have to go. There's not enough room for Fin, Stack, and Daniels. Of those 3, Stack seems the most likely to go, because he's got the most trade value, and we wouldn't be losing Marquis' youth and potential.

Quis I'm not sure about. Maybe he's the answer, maybe he's not, but I feel more confident he can contribute next year than I am that Dallas could get much value for him in trade after the disappointing second year; hence, I'm not much in favor of moving him.

I'm probably being overly optimistic, but I really think this guy is gonna be the player we need him to be. I know he had it easy last year under Nellie, and with all those scorers on the floor, but I still don't think that his performance last year was a fluke. I think it was a glimpse of his potential. As far as I can see, the only think holding him back is his jumpshot.

Fin has not asked for a trade, is unlikely to bring a good return, and is not a chemistry problem. I just don't see how the Mavs gain anything by trading him away.

Which is why Stack is more likely to go than Fin.

As for Keith, as I said, I just think he represents too much in monetary savings to go in anything other than a nobrainer for an elite player or a multi-player deal with some money still coming off the books next year and the other guy a likely long-term solution at one position or another. If one of those types of deals presents themselves, jump on it. I'm just saying that the argument that he should go because he gets paid a lot without playing 35 mpg doesn't really do much for me by itself.

Agreed. Keith was great for us this year. I remember all the commotion and arguments about the trade that brought him here. Many were saying "he can't play D" or "he's just another jumpshooter," "we're giving up defense for offense" "we don't need more scoring." Then he showed up, played better D than anyone expected, took it inside more than anyone expected, and fit into the system perfectly. He didn't waste any time doing it, either; he contributed right away. I'm thoroughly convinced that we would've beaten Phoenix if he hadn't been injured. I don't know what the future holds for him, but I don't want him to go just yet. If we trade him for something that clearly makes the team better, sure. If we just let that big contract run out, I'm ok with that too, as long as we get someone else to fill the void. But I don't want to trade just because he's getting paid too much.

[Misfit Mav]

Originally posted by: kg_veteran

Weird. I nearly posted this exact same thing. I was going to say that the only thing we know for sure is Dirk for 36-38 mpg, Josh for 34 mpg, and Damp for 30 mpg, with everything else still up in the air.

I am convinced Stackhouse has to go. If Daniels can't figure out how to shoot and defend better, he's going to have to be moved as well. I'm going to have to go and check out some of your trade scenarios, Stressboy, because I'd really like to find a way to upgrade this team at SG without moving Howard or Harris.

It's just a hunch, but I think Devin is part of that group of players unlikely to be traded. I suspect the team has high hopes for him. His minutes next season are completely up in the air however.

As for the log-jam in the back-court, I'm not sure what to do about it. I agree that moving Stackhouse makes good sense from a basketball perspective, but I think he brought some nice intangibles to the team. He provided some grit, toughness, and was a surprisingly good cheerleader on the bench.

[bobatundi1]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c


Quis - 18 mpg. To get above this level I expect he'll have to not only get his jumper out to 18 feet more consistent, but will have to prove that he's an upgrade defensively over Fin/Stack as well, something he's yet to do. 05/06 will be kinder to him than last year, but I'm not sure he's quite ready to break out in a deep backcourt.

I'm a 30 year old, 5'10" 240 lb white guy who hasn't touched a basketball in a decade, and I daresay I'd be an upgrade defensively over Fin.

[grndmstr_c]

In that case I daresay we should trade Quis and sign you up, because the team does worse defensively with Quis on the floor than it does with Fin on the floor.

Exhibit A - the Mavs gave up 93.1 points per 48 minutes last year with Fin at SG, as compared to 97.7 with Quis at SG.

Exhibit B - the Mavs gave up 96.9 points per 100 posessions with Fin paired with Josh, as compared to 97.5 with Quis paired with Josh.

Exhibit C - the Mavs gave up 92.5 points per 100 posessions with Fin paired with Damp, as compared to 97.2 with Quis paired with Damp.

[DallasMavaricks+Cowboys]

If I was coaching Mavs- (this won't happen by the way)


With the current roster, minutes splits by position

1) Devin the Dude - 24 min, JET - 17 min, Quis - 5 min, D.A. - 2 min
2) Quis - 15 min, Fin - 14 min, Crackhouse - 16 min, JET - 4 min
3) J-Ho - 32 min, KVH - 5 min, Fin - 5 min, Crackhouse - 5 min
4) Dirk - 27 min, KVH - 13 min, Hendu - 6 min, Mbenga - 2 min
5) Damp - 30 min, Dirk - 6 min, Mbenga - 5 min, P-Pod - 7 min

240 total min

Dirk - 33 min............................................... ....keep minutes down to keep him fresh
J-Ho - 32 min............................................... ...same
Damp - 30 min............................................... .who else do we got?
Dev - 24 min............................................... ...needs the experience
JET - 21 min............................................... ....off the bench energy/offense
Crack - 21 min............................................... .I want to trade him for some 4/5 help. He's tradeable- get a pick/defensive player/depth at 5
Quis - 20 min............................................... ...Give him some time at point, let him operate at the 2
Fin - 19 min............................................... .....We can't trade him, Let him shoot 3's off the bench
KVH - 18 min............................................... ....Same as Stackhouse. He showed what he was worth against Houston...nothing
D.J. - 7 min............................................... .......He won't play this much-this is way too optimistic
P-Pod - 7 min............................................... ...see previous
Hendu - 6 min............................................... ..let him get a little work keep him fresh
D.A. - 2 min............................................... ......rest him for playoffs

Does anyone know what city the mavs will send NBDL players to?

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally posted by: bobatundi1

I'm a 30 year old, 5'10" 240 lb white guy who hasn't touched a basketball in a decade, and I daresay I'd be an upgrade defensively over Fin.

Give me a break! Did you even watch the Houston series? Supposedly, Howard is our best defender, but he got absolutely torched by T-Mac. There was only one guy who could remotely slow McGrady down, know who it was? It was Finley. Finley isn't an all-defensive team player, but he's not sub-par by any means. I'd say he's slightly above average.

[Misfit Mav]

We haven't even hit the draft yeat and there has already been quite a shake-up. So much for that quiet summer I was hoping for... [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

Bradley's gone, and it looks like Fin could be next. Pavel and/or DJ could be sent to the NBDL. Wahad might be cut. I doubt that Henderson and Armstrong are retained. That could leave us with as few as EIGHT players on the roster for next season! So much for that log-jam.

Dampier
Dirk, Van Horn
Howard
Stackhouse, Daniels
Terry, Harris

That's a good 8-man rotation, but we definitely need to sign a back-up center and several utility players, especially a guard who can shoot the three.

[foglemann]

Originally posted by: Thespiralgoeson

Give me a break! Did you even watch the Houston series? Supposedly, Howard is our best defender, but he got absolutely torched by T-Mac. There was only one guy who could remotely slow McGrady down, know who it was? It was Finley. Finley isn't an all-defensive team player, but he's not sub-par by any means. I'd say he's slightly above average.

Spiral, I understand that Finley played great defense on TMac, we all saw it. But I'm not giving that much credit to Finley. He's a veteran, 10+ years in the league. Howard is a 2nd year player. The refs were giving all kinds of favoritism to TMac and rightfully so, he's a superstar. When Finley guarded him, he did well to stay in front of him, but that's about it. Finley's key was his ability to play physical with him, where the ref's wouldn't call it. Josh played similar aggressive defense, but yet was called for fouls while Finley was not. Finley did well, but I wouldn't give his abilites credit for it, more his rep.

[The Miles]

PG-Jason Terry | Devin Harris
SG-Marquis Daniels | Jerry Stackhouse
SF-Josh Howard | Stack/Van Horn
PF-Dirk Nowitzki | Keith Van Horn
CT-Erick Dampier | Dan Gadzuric *fingers crossed we can land him*

[alby]

That is a damn good team.

[harsh euro barge]

If Finley leaves and we stand pat...

PG- Terry (27) Harris (21)
SG- Stack (25) Daniels (20) Terry (3)
SF- Howard (33) Van Horn (8) Daniels (7)
PF- Dirk (36) Van Horn (14)
C- Damp (33) Van Horn (7) PPod/Benga (8)