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Old 12-12-2016, 10:51 AM   #1
Bryan_Wilson
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Default Blazers

Kinda long bear with me. Tried to group it in a way to make it less painful.

We might need to keep an eye on the Blazers as a candidate for either Bogut trade talks or to take some bad contracts from them. Blazers right now are barely hanging on to the 8th seed. And honestly their roster construction looks like a train wreck. They have Lillard and McCollum who take around 42-45 shots a game when you factor in free throws on fouled attempts. That's nearly half their shots a game. Lillard makes 24m+ and CJ starting next year will be making 23m+. They of course are not the problem... the problem is half their cap is spent on those 2, and the other half is spent on maybe the worst contracts collectively in the NBA.

**They matched an offer for Allen Crabbe to pay him 18.5m+ per year, and he shoots 7 shots a game. He's a great 3pt shooter and scorer but he doesn't have shots to justify that kind of pay, maybe it changes in the future but as of now he's even more overpaid than Wes Matthews.

**Then we have Evan Turner, a signing I still have no idea what their motivation was when they decided to give Evan Turner 70mill for 4 years. 16m+ for a guy who needs the ball in his hands, because he can't shoot... on a team where the ball is quite literally always in Lillard or McCollum's hands. He doesn't give you defense or anything like that so yeah, the signing makes no sense to me.

**Meyers Leonard was given a nice pay raise 4yrs 41m. Makes a little more than Powell. And as much as we complain about Powell, based on their performances this year the Mavs would laugh at a phone call for a straight up Powell for Leonard trade.

**And finally Aminu, who some people around here iirc went a little nuts when we didn't bring him back. Is making 8m+ or so for 2 more years after this. And has only played 11 games so far. In those 11 games he's playing his worst basketball of his career. Think about that, he was pretty raw as a rookie and in the 11 games this year he is worse than that.

I didn't even mention Ezeli signing with them because they have a team option next year and can dump him for nothing. He might not play a single second for the Blazers because his knee problem. But that's like 52million in contracts per year(not including Ezeli) that they are getting absolute shit production from. So are we willing to take a bad contract from them for assets? I don't think Crabbe can be considered a bad contract because he is a good shooter but I do think he is a poor fit for them. I think Turner is just overpaid period and it would definitely take an asset to dump him.

As for a Bogut trade, they only really have Plumlee and Ed Davis at the 5. They are maybe the worst defense in the NBA. Maybe we ask for Mo Harkless and a 1st. It would clear shots for Crabbe and playing time when Aminu is healthy. Or if we liked Crabbe do something like Bogut Simba and Harris for Crabbe and a 1st. They can waive most of Harris contract next year, bogut will clear their cap, and they will be free from Crabbe's big deal to get a more suitable FA. Plus they add Simba who might be a better fit with their playmakers then here. Any trade not involving Bogut could only really be done with Wes. Which would make for somewhat of a story book tale if he keeps playing well and ended up back in Portland where he probably fits best with their 2 playmakers who could use his defense. It would take more than a late 1 to trade them Wes and get back Turner though IMO.

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Old 12-12-2016, 12:47 PM   #2
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Blazers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

So much young talent, but they recklessly overspent to keep their guys and now they're in a terrible spot. Very few tradable assets. A full salary cap without being playoff-caliber.
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Old 12-12-2016, 01:08 PM   #3
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I do not know... I do not like any of the guys Portland has. They seem to be a mess, so it is hard to say how overpaid those guys are. I think I would rather see Mavs have that extra cap space this summer combined with top 5 pick who could lure some free agent to Dallas.

Trading for bad contracts has kind of died off? Do not remember teams doing those things as often as they used to. But yeah, Portland's salary for next season... Currently they are guaranteed to pay more than Cleveland. Makes you think...
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Old 12-12-2016, 01:28 PM   #4
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Blazers' best bet is to draft well. It's the only way to improve talent cheaply. Talent level isn't their issue-- the cost of their talent is. They'd be dumb to trade away their picks and I don't want any of their guys
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Old 12-12-2016, 02:42 PM   #5
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I agree that none of them are guys I love. I like Harkless "ok" but I don't think he fits well with Barnes. If we made a deal with them it would be for a draft pick and Bogut with matching salaries. Portland does have an extra 1st in next year's draft from Cleveland so they do have an extra asset to either acquire Bogut with or both scenarios and dump a contract.

And I think the reason you don't see as many bad contracts being traded is because of the cap increases so everyone had money to spend. And with the new CBA coming that would likely mean another amnesty for every team. So Portland might get bailed out with one of those. But if there is no amnesty they are committing like 120m for 8 players next year. And currently looking at 30m over the cap. And with no more major cap spikes not every team will have money, as shown by the Blazers. So I do think we will see those bad contract trades happen in the next 2-4 years depending on CBA.

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Old 12-12-2016, 03:07 PM   #6
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Talent level isn't their issue-- the cost of their talent is
Do you consider Crabbe worth of 18,5 million? Portland is in the risk of ending up in no man's land where they get to draft at around 15-20 and come free agency they will not have cap space to get any serious asset. They really must believe in their drafting.

They are building a situation similar to D-Will in Brooklyn. Some talented players, team fights for playoffs, but is also stacked in salary.

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Old 12-12-2016, 05:57 PM   #7
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I'm not sure about the Portland players mentioned but I do think the strategy of taking on a crappy contract along with picks is something we could consider.
We most likely aren't signing any big name FAs next season and draft picks are more important (especially in this draft) right now so young guys with some upside like Crabbe or Harkless along with a pick would be something I could certainly embrace.

Turning any of Bogut, DWill, Matthews, Barea, Harris, Mejri into next year draft picks in just about any situation (including bringing back a bad contract or two) would be a positive move for this team as far as I'm concerned. The players we bring back accompanying the picks would only be gravy or completely irrelevant for our future....the main thing is to accumulate as many draft picks as possible.

Think about it....if Portland has a high teen pick we might be able to package something like that with our 31 (assuming we are the worst team) and possibly trade up for a 2nd lottery pick.

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Old 12-12-2016, 11:23 PM   #8
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Think about it....if Portland has a high teen pick we might be able to package something like that with our 31 (assuming we are the worst team) and possibly trade up for a 2nd lottery pick.
You also have to consider the situation where Blazers actually would get better thanks to the trade. In that case you would be talking about 18-20th pick. My issue is still the position Mavs end up with in the free agency. I would like to think that top 5 pick + Matthews + Barnes would at least give a reason for consideration for a guy like Boogie.

Some have tried to make a case to build a team and have something to show for a star caliber player to join Mavs. Now suddenly Dallas is supposed to end up with bad contracts and draft picks which may or may not end up good? Mavs have been good at drafting wing players. There is no need for that anymore.

The case against having free cap can be made that at least this summer, outside of Ibaka and Monroe, there is nothing really going for Mavs. Sure, there are names like Griffin and Lowry, but who actually thinks they are leaving the situation they are in?

On the flip side, I do not see Mavs trading for anyone in Portland. Problem is, all their bad contract-possible upside players play in the position where Mavs have zero need. Hard to imagine anyone trading for Crabbe and not giving him 25+ minutes a game.

Honestly, I do not think that Portland is interested in dumping salary before draft day. It would not surprise me if they are asking something meaningful in return for guy like Crabbe (something like late 1st round pick).
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Old 12-13-2016, 04:15 PM   #9
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CBSsports had an article about this yesterday, mentioning Boston or Portland as most likely destinations. Just like others have said, I dont like anything theyd probably give up, and not at their prices either, and not at their position.

The article mentioned us taking on Ezeli. No to that, unless that comes with a 1st rounder.
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Old 12-13-2016, 07:40 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Blazers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

So much young talent, but they recklessly overspent to keep their guys and now they're in a terrible spot. Very few tradable assets. A full salary cap without being playoff-caliber.
Riley did them dirty. Whiteside told this week that the Blazers were his 2nd choice. Pretty sure Whiteside walks if Riley would have played with open cards...

Lillard
McC
Harkless
Aminu
Whiteside

Thats 50+ wins for sure
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Old 02-01-2017, 12:30 AM   #11
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Leonard doesn't seem to be having a good year according to the stats but he is a career 37+% 3pt shooter (2 years 42+%) and is only 24. Seems like he would fit Carlisle's system.
I see Portland has about $135mil in salary next season so I'm assuming they will want to dump some and maybe we can pick up some youth and future draft picks from them.
Would they (and we) consider Bogut/Harris/Mejri for Leonard/Davis/2018 2nd rnd pick? Salaries should match.

That would also clear a spot to sign another player....perhaps Yogi for the rest of the season if that is possible.
Not sure how that works or if it would even be possible.

We'd basically net Leonard/Davis/Yogi and a draft pick in that deal while merely giving up three 30-something expirings.

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Old 02-01-2017, 03:47 AM   #12
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That is actually quite realistic trade idea. I still think when it comes to straight salary dumping, Portland is more interested in getting rid of Evan Turner. If you switch Ed Davis with Festus Ezeli, then I see no reason why Portland would not consider it.

Sure, Portland has not yet seen what Ezeli can do, but at the same time, he has created enough havoc in the locker room while not playing. It would be chemistry upgrade for Portland to trade him.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:24 AM   #13
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The only Blazers players I have any interest in are Lillard and McCollum. I don't see taking on a contract like Turner's to be worth the 18th pick (or whatever it ends up being) when it essentially takes us completely out of the running for quality free agents.

Now, if you had confidence that you could flip that 18th pick to Philly for Nerlens, then we're getting somewhere. Or maybe a three-way deal that sends Bogut to Portland, Nerlens to Dallas and Harkless/Crabbe to Philly. But in a straight-up trade without a high likelihood of flipping an asset in a subsequent deal, I don't like Portland as a trade partner.
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Old 02-01-2017, 10:39 AM   #14
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The only Blazers players I have any interest in are Lillard and McCollum. I don't see taking on a contract like Turner's to be worth the 18th pick (or whatever it ends up being) when it essentially takes us completely out of the running for quality free agents.
I'm not crazy about taking on Turner by any means but I'm not sure we're in a position where creating cap space is going to improve us much in the off-season.
Any FA worth what ET is making won't be headed our way. Sure we could vastly over pay someone with potential but why not let it be him with some picks coming with him?
In this draft it might be worth taking it on.

I'd certainly consider Bogut/Powell for Turner/2017 #1.
Then maybe offer that pick along with Anderson for someone like Noel or WCS.
Maybe draft Markkanen as Dirk's future replacement?

DWill/Yogi/Barea
Curry/Turner
Wes/DFS/Brussino
Barnes/Dirk/Markkanen
Noel/Mejri/Hammons


Would be a really nice situation going into next season.

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