Wow. Mavs Odds right now. - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

EastDallasCowboy · 05-02-2006, 09:56 PM

According to my bookmaker, the odds on the Mavs are still:

2-1 (+200) to win the Western Conference.

5-1 (+480) to win the NBA Finals

That makes them the 3rd favorite for the finals behind DET (-180) and SAS (+280) and the 2nd favorite for the conference behind SAS (-120).

Those aren't bad payouts considering what the Mavs just did to the Grizz and how late it is in the year. (and I'm sure there are better odds out there, i double checked them with a notoriously cheap on-line sportsbook).

But there is more intrigue!

-While odds are generally poor for big market teams, the Lakers odds to win the West are now 5-1 (+500) making them the 3rd favorite now.

-The oddsmakers have remained very cheap on the Spurs, leading me to believe that the gambling consensus still has them winning the West.

-Sacramento is at 50-1 for the Finals despite being tied 2-2 in the series. That isn't shocking considering they'd still have the Mavs, Lakers/Clips, and Pistons to go. But they're at 35-1 for the Western Conference. That's some amazing value considering the fight they're giving the Spurs. Were I not a Mavs fan, I'd be all over that.

Anyway, just thought it was interesting. The bookmakers still aren't giving the Mavs a ton of respect, and they're still way overvalueing the Spurs. I'm also shocked at how favored the Pistons are, and expect things would even out a lot if the Mavs ended up against them.

chumdawg · 05-02-2006, 10:07 PM

That is TREMENDOUS value on the Kings. You may never in your life find such a good bet.

Of course, this is not to say that they are favorites to get there, or anything. But the value in the odds makes it a great play.

What are the Clippers going at on your book?

The Lakers are WAY overvalued there, which of course allows for some other teams to be good plays. The Spurs are also overvalued at even money for the conference.

Last I checked (two or three days ago), you could still get 7-1 on the Mavs at most books. Doubtless that has gone down in the wake of the asswhipping the Mavs gave the Grizz, combined with the struggles of the other contenders in the West.

EastDallasCowboy · 05-02-2006, 10:20 PM

The numbers I just posted were his initial offering, but I think think he's being cheap and told him as much. I generally use him for football because he offers good odds on both NFL and college, but I rarely touch MLB or NBA because I'm not good at betting at either. (although I did make a nice buck on the Rangers mon night with a 110% payout as underdogs on the road with Loe pitching, but I digress).

I told him he was being cheap and that I'd bet on-line if he didn't give me a little better odds. I figure I'll hear from him soon. I will probably take the Kings odds though, because as you said-they're amazing.

I explain the Lakers ones like I do any big city team. Yankess/Sox/Lakers/Giants/etc. always get poor odds due to a combo of a larger betting base and the over-coverage by the national media.

Anyway, I'm getting the Clips at +750 for the West and +3000 for the finals. Those aren't bad, although I really don't think they get past the Lakers and I have serious doubts about them having any shot at the finals.

I'm probably going to drop bets on the Mavs for the west (already have the traditional pre-season small bet on them for the finals) and a bet on the Kings for the west.

chumdawg · 05-02-2006, 10:29 PM

What did you get your preseason bet on the Mavs at? Should be around 20-1, I would think.

You're right, I'd want a little more than that, at this stage, on the Clips to win the conference. They are attractive in that they have a decent chance to play in the WCF, and you have to give any team consideration there, especially this year. But the wiser play would probably be to wait until the Lakers finish the Suns (if the Lakers finish the Suns) and either play the Clips in that series or take the WC odds at that time. If it's Clips/Lakers and Mavs/Spurs, I'd want 9-1 on the Clips to be happy about it. I'd want 2-1 on the Clips to win that series against the Lakers.

I'd put the Mavs at 50% to win the next round and 60% to win the following round if they do, which means I want 2.5-1 on them right now to be happy.

EastDallasCowboy · 05-02-2006, 10:44 PM

I got 23-1 actually, thanks in no small part to ESPN's sh!t-talking pre-season.

Sad thing is, it was only a $40 bet because I was unemployed at the time.

I may considering a small bet on the Clips in that series, but I just can't conceive of the Lakers losing if they get there and if PHX comes back to make it I think it's a slaughter. I like the Clips, I'm just not sold on them.

I rate the Mavs at prolly 65% for the next round based on my obersavations of the team, and the rest they'll be getting. And I honestly put them at 80% to clear the finals if we get to that point. Even at 2-1 I figure I'll put a few hundred on the Mavs for the conference because I think they're that good and it's a good bet, even with the low odds.

chumdawg · 05-02-2006, 10:51 PM

If you believe in those percentages, anything better than even money is an overlay for you. Those percentages are WAY high.

I like your $40 bet. Preseason is not the time to go crazy. It's the time to make well-placed $40 bets that pay over $900 when they hit. Good job.

u2sarajevo · 05-02-2006, 11:05 PM

It's like this entire whole different language that exists. Dang it, I feel stupid.

bernardos70 · 05-03-2006, 01:25 AM

It's like ghetto language spoken on the streets to elude cops about drug dealing, hoe pimpin', and other illicit activities. I feel like I clicked on this thread and was dropped directly into Dave Chappelle's World Series of Dice skit. This is disgraceful, and no better than selling crack cocaine. Disappointing.

Put me down for $200 on the mavs taking it all.

twelli · 05-03-2006, 09:47 PM

In related news, Charles Barkley admitted he had lost millions in gambling in recent years, but he said it wasn't a problem because he could afford it....

Here is my take. If someone says, his gambling, drinking, drug taking, etc. is no problem, he probably knows in his heart that it IS a problem, but he is not able to admit it.

The point is not how much money you lose. It is the fact that you feel the need to gamble in the first place that is the real problem, and of course that you can't stop doing it.

Hey guys, I don't want to spoil your fun, but gambling sucks.

I enjoy watching sports just for the fun of it.

StrikerV · 05-04-2006, 01:36 AM

I put down 200$ at 15-1 to win it all.

$3000 payday if the mavs win, so i think i can buy plenty of post-celebration liquor ^_^

digit · 05-04-2006, 01:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StrikerV

I put down 200$ at 15-1 to win it all.

$3000 payday if the mavs win, so i think i can buy plenty of post-celebration liquor ^_^

Same here, I will get about EUR 3000,-...plus I have the Mavs taking it all in two longtime parlays...

EastDallasCowboy · 05-04-2006, 04:02 PM

Come on now Twelli, I don't judge what you do and there's no reason for you to do that to me or others.

I enjoy sports without gambling, and I enjoy sports with gambling. I don't bet on every sporting event I watch, or even close. Every so often I get in the mood or have a good gut feeling about a game though, and I'll throw some cash on it. Just like every so often I'll find myself in the mood to hit up a casino and I'll make the trek to LA or OK.

Just because people indulge in vice, doesn't make it a "problem." And not admitting it to be a problem making it one is even more assinine. Sometimes things really just aren't a problem. But that logic is in tune with the "if she's a witch, she'll float but if she's not she'll drown." It's the logic that drug/alcohol/gambling counselors or opponents love to use simply because it makes them feel righteous.

But this thread isn't about that.

This thread was intended not to promote gambling, but to alert folks to the opinion of the bookmakers regarding the Mavs, because in my experience the bookmakers tend to be right.