2018 NBA Draft

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

1 - Suns - Ayton - they are in love with him and have all but committed
2 - Kings - Doncic - Divacs loves the white kids, particularly from Europe. No way they pass on him.
3- Atlanta - Bagley (60%) or Young (40%) - Atl needs offense. They'll either draft Bagley or Young. They are reportedly shopping Schroder so they may opt to draft Young, which would make Bagley available for us at the 5.
4 - Memphis - Jackson - they would have opted out of the defensively limited Bagley to pursue a guy with a high motor and high defensive potential anyway, so they get their man in Jackson

Mavs choose from
Porter - has a Kevin Durant/Paul George upside, but some concerns (some of which can be addressed in workouts)

Bamba - defensive potential is off the charts. His offense is going to be a challenge, but should get at least PnP and oop opportunities from Smith

Bridges - All around best player. May never average 20ppg, but will bring fire, defense, energy, leadership, and a surprisingly versatile offensive presence. He can do what Matthews was supposed to. He can play SG or SF at the next level while defending three positions (PG-SF). He's ready to contribute now.

Bagley - KG without the defense. Physical specimen with versatile offense. Just like Smith Jr., he has the body to play defense. Just doesn't have any idea how to play it, but may be able to learn. Only available if Hawks draft Young and Grizz go Jackson.

Mavs have some fascinating players to choose from.

Bump, although I think the odds of Kings also passing on Doncic are higher. ATL obviously much more likely to get Young than my previous conjecture.

My new prediction:
1 - Suns - Ayton - they are in love with him and have all but committed
2 - Kings - Bagley - They need offense and have fallen in love with Bagley. He could be good next to Fox and Bogdonovic
3- Atlanta - Young - They are reportedly shopping Schroder so they may opt to draft Young
4 - Memphis - Jackson - they would have opted out of the defensively limited Bagley to pursue a guy with a high motor and high defensive potential anyway, so they get their man in Jackson

Mavs choose from
Porter - has a Kevin Durant/Paul George upside, but some concerns (some of which can be addressed in workouts)
Bamba - defensive potential is off the charts. His offense is going to be a challenge, but should get at least PnP and oop opportunities from Smith
Bridges - All around best player. May never average 20ppg, but will bring fire, defense, energy, leadership, and a surprisingly versatile offensive presence. He can do what Matthews was supposed to. He can play SG or SF at the next level while defending three positions (PG-SF). He's ready to contribute now.
Doncic - White LeBron? Passable Turkoglu impersonator? Looking like he will be available at the 5 spot

[mac222b]

Man it'd be tough to pass on Doncic if he slips to 5. Even if Porter and Bamba and M. Bridges are still there

[EricaLubarsky]

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Remember though that everything before the draft is smoke and mirrors. I don't believe for a second that the Hawks are "definitely" going to draft Young.

And if Doncic slips to 5, I still take Bamba provided Bagley isn't there.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Im too lazy to do a Covington picture for Mikal Bridges

We are not picking Covington at #5

And yeah, the Hawks are stupid, but not Trae at 3 stupid...

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Remember though that everything before the draft is smoke and mirrors. I don't believe for a second that the Hawks are "definitely" going to draft Young.

And if Doncic slips to 5, I still take Bamba provided Bagley isn't there.

Knicks want him. I wouldn't be surprised if they didnt use the threat of drafting Young at 3 to get the Knicks to sweeten a deal.

Then again, Hawks are really unhappy with Schroder as their starting point.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Im too lazy to do a Covington picture for Mikal Bridges

We are not picking Covington at #5

And yeah, the Hawks are stupid, but not Trae at 3 stupid...

Idk.. Trae is a baller. I can imagine great success with good players around him. Unfortunately he wont yet have that to start with.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Knicks want him. I wouldn't be surprised if they didnt use the threat of drafting Young at 3 to get the Knicks to sweeten a deal.

Then again, Hawks are really unhappy with Schroder as their starting point.

Then they could send #19 for Kemba Walker and still pick Bagley etc

[FreshJive]

Originally Posted by Underdog

@NBADraftGod: BREAKING: Barring the possibility of another team trading into the top 2 & swooping him up, the Atlanta Hawks are primed to select Oklahoma’s Trae Young with the 3rd pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, sources tell Rufus N. Dooze of @NBADraftGod.

That name sounds so made up. I think it’s the N. that triggers the alarm bells. Like Roscoe P. Coltrane.

[EricaLubarsky]

28 days

[Dtownsfinest]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Short answer: yes
Long answer: F*** yes.

Right on!

Originally Posted by Underdog

It sounds more like Doncic is trying to leverage a trade should Sacramento draft him, don't think he wants to watch his career bust in that crap franchise.

Sad thing is.....if he's as good as advertised? Sac has a nice little squad. There some ways away but they have some very good young players.

[Dtownsfinest]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Idk.. Trae is a baller. I can imagine great success with good players around him. Unfortunately he wont yet have that to start with.

If he finds his way to the Cavs.......he may...well that's if Lebron comes back.

[Dtownsfinest]

Originally Posted by Underdog

If true, then this is the best-case scenario, effectively giving us the #4 pick for all intents and purposes... I don't really see the Hawks trading down to get Trae, since Orlando has their sights on him at #6... And there's really no reason for Dallas to trade up since either Bagley, Porter, or Doncic would be slipping to #5 in this case.

I actually saw a FOX Sports mock yesterday that had MPJ going #2 overall, and I still think Bagley makes the most sense in Memphis... So lemme talk myself into this scenario for a sec:

1. Phoenix: DeAndre Ayton
2. Sacramento: Michael Porter Jr
3. Atlanta: Trae Young
4. Memphis: Marvin Bagley
5. Dallas: Luka Doncic

I'm obviously not as high on Luka as most, and still think he has some clear limitations, but I could definitely live with us picking him if we're not giving up assets to trade up for him. Really, just knowing that a possible #1 scorer like Bagley, Porter, or Doncic could slip to #5 gives me more hope for this draft (my worst-case scenario has those 3 and Ayton off the board before we pick)... I've kinda soured on Bagley a bit after EL pointed out that the centers left in the playoffs are 6'10" Hortford, 6'9" Tristan Thompson, 6'10" Capela, and 6'7" Green -- just not sure if a 7'0" giant with limited effective range can make a dent in today's NBA... I still think JJJ's stretch-5 game has a lot of potential, but the Mavs need a #1 scorer more than anything else right now, and the Hawks may be serving one to us on a silver platter... Not sure if I could pass up Luka at #5.

Not saying he'll slip to us, but Atlanta taking Trae certainly makes it a stronger possibility... I could also talk myself into Bagley for the same reasons.

I don't think its about their height though. Draymon and Capela are ballers. Hortford is too. Those are 3 all stars. It just so happens that the best big men in the league don't play on the Warriors, Celtics, Cavs or Rockets. Though I find it hard to believe Capella is just 6'10. His wingspan is crazy or looks like it on Tv.

[EricaLubarsky]

27 days

[Underdog]

I think I'm done analyzing and trying to predict this draft... For one, it's so almost impossible to predict what the 4 teams before us will do... But also, I can talk myself in circles about Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, JJJ, MPJ, Bamba, and Bridges all day, but the truth is that I'll be happy with any of them... It's mostly going to come down to what Carlisle feels they should add to a DSJ/HB core versus what Donnie thinks we can get in free agency, trades, next year's draft, etc... Basically, I trust that the MBT has more information than I do and will act accordingly.

Just typing that last paragraph gave me tired-head.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I think I'm done analyzing and trying to predict this draft... For one, it's so almost impossible to predict what the 4 teams before us will do... But also, I can talk myself in circles about Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, JJJ, MPJ, Bamba, and Bridges all day, but the truth is that I'll be happy with any of them... It's mostly going to come down to what Carlisle feels they should add to a DSJ/HB core versus what Donnie thinks we can get in free agency, trades, next year's draft, etc... Basically, I trust that the MBT has more information than I do and will act accordingly.

Just typing that last paragraph gave me tired-head.

Oh please, you'll be right back here tomorrow with another draft rumor.

This is literally the only thing we have to look forward to for the next 27 days.

I will say that the real discussion is whether or not we should let what is happening in the playoffs dictate who we pick.

Mike Fisher (I know right?) made a good point on twitter that we traded for Raef Lafrentz to pull Shaq away from the basket only for the two to never see each other in the playoffs.

I think that's a good lesson that you shouldn't be afraid of someone like Bamba just because defensive centers aren't as much of a thing. You pick the best player no matter what.

[FreshJive]

Remember when Steve Kerr traded Marion for Shaq? Lol. People act like that dude is smart.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Oh please, you'll be right back here tomorrow with another draft rumor.

This is literally the only thing we have to look forward to for the next 27 days.

See, that's the thing -- I was originally going to post a bunch of rumors that I'd heard over the past week, but while typing I started to think about how much of it was probably just smoke... Then I decided that all this smoke was giving me a headache, so I spit out that last post and played a video game instead.

I think we've covered pretty much every angle of the 7 players that could be there at #5... Right now it feels like we're spinning our wheels until something actually happens.

I guess what I'm saying is that 27 days feels like an eternity. I need a nap.

[hayth.james.g]

Originally Posted by Underdog

See, that's the thing -- I was originally going to post a bunch of rumors that I'd heard over the past week, but while typing I started to think about how much of it was probably just smoke... Then I decided that all this smoke was giving me a headache, so I spit out that last post and played a video game instead.

I think we've covered pretty much every angle of the 7 players that could be there at #5... Right now it feels like we're spinning our wheels until something actually happens.

I guess what I'm saying is that 27 days feels like an eternity. I need a nap.

I hear you. There is this small part of me that is holding out hope that Donnie will make a big move this draft. Package a future first, move Barnes, etc. To get multiple picks. Can you imagine adding JJJ and Doncic? I mean I get that every prospect carries risk but I can not think of a better core to build around.

In the end, we most likely hold tight while other teams out manuever us. Sorry, just not a believer in our creative strategies. Or we will go "all in" for another nightmare scenario made by our organization.

[Underdog]

DHWS is right, I'm an addict... I brought up this trade proposal recently:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Memphis going all-in on Gasol/Conley, open to trading their pick to win now... I wonder if they'd go for a trade along these lines (with possible moving parts):

Dallas gets Chandler Parsons, #4 pick.
Memphis gets Harrison Barnes, 2019 1st round pick.

Parsons and Barnes have the exact same contract, we would give up next year's pick to add #4 to our #5 pick in this year's draft... Would you do it?

Now BlazersEdge is suggesting something similar:

Dallas gets Chandler Parsons, Evan Turner, #4 pick.
Portland gets Wesley Matthews.
Memphis gets Harrison Barnes, Dallas’ 2019 first-round pick (top-10 protected in 2019, top-five protected in 2020), Portland’s No. 24 pick in 2018.

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/5/2...raft-grizzlies

Would you do it? It's pretty much the same deal I proposed, except we trade 1 year of Wes for 2 years of Turner... But you still have the #4/5 picks in this draft and it sweetens the deal a bit more for Memphis to pull the trigger (Portland would be all over this, since it frees up 2019 cap space and brings back a 3&D fan favorite).

[FreshJive]

Saw this in an article about Doncic
https://94feetreport.com/luka-doncic...y-9ef7ba9c4368

“Because I’m a typical American that knew very little about international basketball, I did some research a while back to help contextualize his playing environment. I found that Euroleague currently consists of 16 teams with:

21 former 1st round picks
46 former 2nd round picks
167 undrafted players
46 players eligible for future drafts

All-in-all, about 25% of the league either has been drafted by an NBA team or will be in the future. Compare that to the NCAA where less than 3% of all players are on the NBA draft radar. Even if you just consider major conference teams, only around 10% of players are NBA prospects. The average center on an NCAA team is 6’9”. The average Euroleague roster has 3 players 6’10” or taller (and most have a 7-footer). “

[FreshJive]

Originally Posted by Underdog

DHWS is right, I'm an addict... I brought up this trade proposal recently:



Now BlazersEdge is suggesting something similar:

Dallas gets Chandler Parsons, Evan Turner, #4 pick.
Portland gets Wesley Matthews.
Memphis gets Harrison Barnes, Dallas’ 2019 first-round pick (top-10 protected in 2019, top-five protected in 2020), Portland’s No. 24 pick in 2018.

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/5/2...raft-grizzlies

Would you do it? It's pretty much the same deal I proposed, except we trade 1 year of Wes for 2 years of Turner... But you still have the #4/5 picks in this draft and it sweetens the deal a bit more for Memphis to pull the trigger (Portland would be all over this, since it frees up 2019 cap space and brings back a 3&D fan favorite).

Yes, please

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by FreshJive

All-in-all, about 25% of the league either has been drafted by an NBA team or will be in the future. Compare that to the NCAA where less than 3% of all players are on the NBA draft radar.

Those percentages are ridiculously misleading...

16 EuroLeague teams comprised of 16 players each = 256 total players

337 Division I teams comprised of 15 players each = 5,055 total players


So if 25% of EuroLeague players are former/future NBA draftees that's 64 players (which doesn't line up with his numbers, but whatever), whereas if 3% of the NCAA players are on the "draft radar" that's 152 total... And the churn is a lot higher in the NCAA with so many one-and-done guys getting drafted each year, versus EuroLeague where the same "former NBA draftee" can stick around for years, and thus be counted toward the same percentage over and over.

[FreshJive]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Those percentages are ridiculously misleading...

16 EuroLeague teams comprised of 16 players each = 256 total players

352 NCAA teams comprised of 15 players each = 5,280 total players


So if 25% of EuroLeague players are former/future NBA draftees that's 64 players (which doesn't line up with his numbers, but whatever), whereas if 3% of the NCAA players are on the "draft radar" that's 158 total... And the churn is a lot higher in the NCAA with so many one-and-done guys getting drafted each year, versus EuroLeague where the same "former NBA draftee" can stick around for years (and thus be counted toward the same percentage over and over).

It’s actually 26% if you just count the formers using the 256 number. He says “about” 25%. I don’t know why you think the total is important. It’s not like college players are playing against all 158 of those on the radar players. They are playing against a diluted talent pool just like Doncic.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by FreshJive

It’s actually 26% if you just count the formers using the 256 number. He says “about” 25%. I don’t know why you think the total is important. It’s not like college players are playing against all 158 of those on the radar players. They are playing against a diluted talent pool just like Doncic.

Doncic is playing the same 15 teams over & over -- the talent in Europe is concentrated as hell... And he's beating guys who couldn't stick or get into the NBA 5-10 years ago and still can't. Is winning against Nick Calathes, Rudy Fernandez, and Roddy Beaubois supposed to impress me? These Euros washed out in the first place because their game doesn't translate to the NBA as well as NCAA... How many prospective NBA draftees is Doncic beating each night? I bet none of those teams are as stacked with future NBA players as Duke, Villanova, Michigan State, Arizona, Kentucky, etc... The top-end talent in the NCAA is heads & shoulders above EuroLeague.

And that's my problem with Doncic -- once you look past the narrative that he's "dominating the second-best league in the world" the tape isn't as impressive as the hype... Sure, the highlights are pretty, but the kid's game isn't as complete as a lot of other players at the top of the draft. Doncic takes a lot of plays off, especially when the ball isn't in his hands. He certainly doesn't display the same energy as Bagley or Jackson, nor is he as physically gifted as Ayton, Bamba, Young, or a healthy Porter, nor is his IQ as high as Bridges... He's an excellent player, but putting him on a pedestal because of what he's done in Europe seems misguided.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Yes to anything that gets us that number 4 pick without giving up DSJ. I'm done with plan powder and want plan youth development. Mavs are likely still gonna be bad for a while, so having three top picks from two drafts would be plan A,B,C,D, and F.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Well take Bagley as an example of NCAA competition... His toughest challenge was probably Michigan state or Texas because of JJJ+Miles and Bamba. Well he played 10mins against Michigan state and he thoroughly dominated Bamba. The only other 1st round talent he played against was what... Lonnie Walker? A guard? Bamba played Bagley... Sexton and Trae Young as the only other 1st round talents.

Duke had the 17th hardest schedule according to CBS sports. Yet Bagley's only real matchup was against Bamba one time. And since he didn't play against Michigan State his best "team" opponent was maybe UNC or Kansas in the tourney? Kansas's best player to me was Newman and the only way he sticks in the NBA is if he can learn to play some point, otherwise I just doubt he sticks. And UNC... well Luke Maye is returning for his senior season because he might have gone undrafted or at best the very tail end of the 2nd.

On a game by game basis Idk how College remotely stacks up. There will be the one or 2 games that put 2 great prospects against each other but of the 30 games these guys play, a good 25 of them they probably aren't being guarded by someone who has a remote chance in hell at playing competitively at any level beyond college. If Bagley and Bamba's only competition in terms of nba talent guarding them was 1 game against each other then they may as well just post a workout video in a gym tbh. It's why I'm a major proponent of stopping the stupid one and done rule.

[Bryan_Wilson]

And I'm 100% on board with any trade that nets us another top 6 pick without sacrificing DSJ obviously.

[hayth.james.g]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Doncic is playing the same 15 teams over & over -- the talent in Europe is concentrated as hell... And he's beating guys who couldn't stick or get into the NBA 5-10 years ago and still can't. Is winning against Nick Calathes, Rudy Fernandez, and Roddy Beaubois supposed to impress me? These Euros washed out in the first place because their game doesn't translate to the NBA as well as NCAA... How many prospective NBA draftees is Doncic beating each night? I bet none of those teams are as stacked with future NBA players as Duke, Villanova, Michigan State, Arizona, Kentucky, etc... The top-end talent in the NCAA is heads & shoulders above EuroLeague.

And that's my problem with Doncic -- once you look past the narrative that he's "dominating the second-best league in the world" the tape isn't as impressive as the hype... Sure, the highlights are pretty, but the kid's game isn't as complete as a lot of other players at the top of the draft. Doncic takes a lot of plays off, especially when the ball isn't in his hands. He certainly doesn't display the same energy as Bagley or Jackson, nor is he as physically gifted as Ayton, Bamba, Young, or a healthy Porter, nor is his IQ as high as Bridges... He's an excellent player, but putting him on a pedestal because of what he's done in Europe seems misguided.

The difference in the NCAA is you play a lot more games against weak talent than the "top end" talent. Sure if the top 20 players played each other 10+ times a year you might be able to make this argument. They don't. And are you really so tainted against the EURO league that you would believe those guys wouldn't dominate 99.95% of NCAA teams?

No one is saying Euro is close to the NBA. We are simply saying it is a better indicator than 99% of the NCAA. They might not of been able to stick around in the NBA. But these guys were VERY good in the NCAA and top prospects at one time.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Underdog

DHWS is right, I'm an addict... I brought up this trade proposal recently:



Now BlazersEdge is suggesting something similar:

Dallas gets Chandler Parsons, Evan Turner, #4 pick.
Portland gets Wesley Matthews.
Memphis gets Harrison Barnes, Dallas’ 2019 first-round pick (top-10 protected in 2019, top-five protected in 2020), Portland’s No. 24 pick in 2018.

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/5/2...raft-grizzlies

Would you do it? It's pretty much the same deal I proposed, except we trade 1 year of Wes for 2 years of Turner... But you still have the #4/5 picks in this draft and it sweetens the deal a bit more for Memphis to pull the trigger (Portland would be all over this, since it frees up 2019 cap space and brings back a 3&D fan favorite).

The FO wants to go back to winning, i just dont see them trading Barnes and swallow a lot of garbage contracts for #4.

Just if JJJ, Porter and Bamba ALL absolutly killing the workouts and they think that each of this player is a future allstar etc. Maybe then...but again: then they probably kill their workout with the Grizzlies too and the Grizz wont do the trade

[SMC0007]

Forget about trading Barnes. Unless we get a steal the mbt will not move him.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by sefant77

The FO wants to go back to winning, i just dont see them trading Barnes and swallow a lot of garbage contracts for #4.

Just if JJJ, Porter and Bamba ALL absolutly killing the workouts and they think that each of this player is a future allstar etc. Maybe then...but again: then they probably kill their workout with the Grizzlies too and the Grizz wont do the trade

Grizz are in win-now mode with Gasol/Conley still under contract for the next couple years... If not for the Conley injury, they would have been one Harrison Barnes away from pushing for a high seed last season. I think they're desperate to undo the damage Chandler Parsons has done to their franchise.

From the Mavs perspective, I don't see any harm in swallowing two years of Parsons/Turner for the #4 pick -- we're several seasons away from competing anyway. What talent we have/will have is going to take more time to develop than Barnes has years left on his contract.

[sefant77]

Then they pick Doncic instead of getting Barnes. Similar "now" production, higher ceiling.

[mac222b]

I don’t see any way the Grizz give up #4 for Harrison Freaking Barnes. Even with Parsons. Couldn’t they get McCollom or somebody equivalent. They could maybe get Tobias Harris and one Clippers pick

[hayth.james.g]

Originally Posted by mac222b

I don’t see any way the Grizz give up #4 for Harrison Freaking Barnes. Even with Parsons. Couldn’t they get McCollom or somebody equivalent. They could maybe get Tobias Harris and one Clippers pick

It's not just Barnes. It's a 2019 pick from a bad team. Maybe top 10 protected, maybe not.

I think it has legitimate potential. Could someone else out offer us? Probably. But this particular offer addresses their two needs. Win now mode + building towards the future. It has merit.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

It's not just Barnes. It's a 2019 pick from a bad team. Maybe top 10 protected, maybe not.

I think it has legitimate potential. Could someone else out offer us? Probably. But this particular offer addresses their two needs. Win now mode + building towards the future. It has merit.

Why would you argue that we're a bad team and thus may net them a better pick? The more we suck, the better the pick, and thus the more of our future we mortgage.

[Underdog]

I don't see Barnes in our longterm plans unless he's wiling to get paid a lot closer to his actual production, and the players in the 5-10 range of next year's draft aren't nearly as promising as anyone we can get at #4 this year... If you can come out of this draft with a core of DSJ and two of MPJ/JJJ/Bagley/Bamba/Doncic/Bridges, you do it... One in the hand is worth two in the bush, so what's two in the hand worth? Plus finalizing our core this summer gives them a head start on building toward the future.

[EricaLubarsky]

I see Barnes in our longterm plans the way I see Finley-- good vet with a solid work ethic who is easy to get along with. Those guys aren't super rare, but you need some veteran leadership like that. Once we got Nash and Dirk, we didn't need him anymore, but he helped pass along the culture and keep the locker room a good place to be.

I think it would be a mistake to trade away all our vets for a full batch of youngins. They need to learn how to play, but they also need to learn how to be professionals and Mavericks. Be more like the Spurs than the Magic.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I see Barnes in our longterm plans the way I see Finley-- good vet with a solid work ethic who is easy to get along with. Those guys aren't super rare, but you need some veteran leadership like that. Once we got Nash and Dirk, we didn't need him anymore, but he helped pass along the culture and keep the locker room a good place to be.

I think it would be a mistake to trade away all our vets for a full batch of youngins. They need to learn how to play, but they also need to learn how to be professionals and Mavericks. Be more like the Spurs than the Magic.

You don't pass up trading an asset like Barnes just so he can provide stable veteran leadership... Be more like the Celtics than the Spurs. It's a new era.

Besides, we still have Dirk and Barea.

[hayth.james.g]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Why would you argue that we're a bad team and thus may net them a better pick? The more we suck, the better the pick, and thus the more of our future we mortgage.

I'ts not that simple. We go all in on two top 5 picks in the 2018 draft which is loaded. And yes we give up Barnes + next year's first. That's the way it works in these types of scenarios... you give up something to get something.

The real win is we have 3 All Star caliber players all under 21 to build on NOW. The disadvantage of a next year's pick is A. It's a weaker draft and B. it's ANOTHER year of waiting to get that pick. Get them now when you have a deep draft.