2018 NBA Draft

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Reading tea leaves, I'm thinking Porter, Doncic, or JJJ. All of them might be gone before 5.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Absolutely. There is no universe in which we can contend in the next 5 years or so. Push FA off by a couple years and just horde young players, picks and other assets

Yeah, we arent sniffing anywhere near the WCF the next 4-5 years.

Warriors
Harden/Paul/Capela
new Lakers superteam...

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

Barnes + next year's 1st for Parsons and #4 is a perfect scenario for both teams imo. You can top 10 protect it for next year.

Memphis would be right where they need to be next year and still have great building blocks for the future.

If Cuban and Donnie aren't salivating at the potential of this, I'm done. This is NOT that hard.

And you can tell Barnes "sorry bro, but remember we have cap space in 2019 and when you decline your PO with Memphis...cough cough"

[tap2390]

Random thought... I think Zhaire Smith is going to be really good. He's a late bloomer but an absolute athletic marvel and plays really hard on both ends. He shows a lot of promise with his jumpshot and handles as well on a small sample size. Would love to somehow pick him up. Think Justin Anderson with more offensive skills.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Okay Mavs owe me an apology if they trade the #5

Got tickets to games 2 and 3 of the Vegas Summer League and I’m looking forward to seeing Smith throw lobs to our #5 pick

Most likely back from hiking in time for game 3 that Monday night!

[j0Shi]

Interesting article how investing a high pick into a center might not be worth it: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...ly-replaceable

It's not that I had the same thoughts, but it's definitely true that drafting a center comes with more concerns than other positions.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Interesting article how investing a high pick into a center might not be worth it: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...ly-replaceable

It's not that I had the same thoughts, but it's definitely true that drafting a center comes with more concerns than other positions.

The problem is that stacking up on guards/forwards means that you're essentially emulating what the top tier teams are doing. To compete with GS, you need 4 all star caliber offensive players or at least something close to that. That's where the league is right now, but that doesn't mean it will be that way in 5 years. And the Mavs aren't anywhere close to competing for a ring.

If the Mavs want to try to win next season, then they need a well-balanced team. Definitely still need a center regardless of where the league is right now.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Interesting article how investing a high pick into a center might not be worth it: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...ly-replaceable

It's not that I had the same thoughts, but it's definitely true that drafting a center comes with more concerns than other positions.

Good article. I think it is important to note that the primary reasons centers are not on the floor in playoffs is because of 1) the need to space the floor and, 2) the need to switch on pick and rolls. If you have someone who can feasibly accomplish those two things (Bamba and J3 being the most likely) then that makes them viable options for 30+ MPG in the playoffs. That being said, I still take Doncic or a healthy Porter over those two.

[BPo001]

It might be a guard based league now, but in 5 years the bigs will return. Guys like Embid, KAT, Ayton etc. should be in their prime.

[EricaLubarsky]

I'm not really sure why people think it's cyclical or why it will change anytime soon without some sort of rules or reffing change and the NBA have ZERO reason to change. High scoring games are popular. The big swings that the three can bring make games more exciting. Seems like something that the NBA loves and it's predicated on players being able to shoot which they are right now and the best/most prolific scorers aren’t retiring anytime soon.

Top NBA 3pt shooters 2017-2018 and their current age
Harden - 28
George - 28
Lowry - 30
Kemba - 28
Thompson - 28
Lillard - 27
Ellington - 30
Gordon - 29
Curry - 30
Ingles - 30

Add to that the number of shooters entering the league from the draft this year

Top Draft prospect shooters and their percentages
Zhaire Smith - 45%
Mikal Bridges - 44%
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk - 44%
Landry Shamet - 44%
Aaron Holiday - 43%
Omari Spellman - 43%
Khyri Thomas - 42%
Mitchell Robinson - 41%
Wendell Carter Jr. - 41%
Caleb Martin - 40%
Donte Divencenzo - 40%
Marvin Bagley - 40%
Jaren Jackson Jr. - 40%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 40%
Elie Okobo - 40% (euro)
Gary Trent Jr. 40%
Miles Bridges - 39%
Anerfernee Simins - 38%
Grayson Allen - 37%
Kevin Huerter - 37%
Jacob Evans - 37%
Chandler Hutchison - 36%
Trae Young - 36%
Lonnie Walker - 35%
Kevin Knox - 34%
Collin Sexton - 34%
Luka Doncic - 31% (euro)
Michael Porter Jr.- 30% (injury?)

We have the highest 3pt% average of any draft class EVER. If anything the three is going to become a bigger deal in the near future.

In addition, every single year I looked at since 1997 had more threes than the year before. We're looking at a trend that started before Dirk entered the league and doesn't seem to be stopping. Not only does the NBA have no reason to curb the importance of threes, the trend has been going for over two decades.


It also makes it hard for a center to be effective. They can score more easily with defenses spread around the perimeter, but their FGs are only worth a 67% of what a three is worth. In addition, there are fewer close shots to block and the rebounds from threes most often bounce outside of the paint, meaning that centers are less important because defense, rebounding, AND scoring. It may be easier to score and pull down a rebound, but they're given fewer and fewer opportunities to do so.

It's why centers have gotten smaller, trimmer, and lighter-- and some have even learned to shoot threes. You have to be able to guard the perimeter, switch, and corral the long rebounds that are created by threes. Otherwise there are fewer and fewer shots to block/defend inside and fewer and fewer rebounds in the paint. To be effective guys have to move and play like guards/forwards.

[Zeus]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

The problem is that stacking up on guards/forwards means that you're essentially emulating what the top tier teams are doing. To compete with GS, you need 4 all star caliber offensive players or at least something close to that. That's where the league is right now, but that doesn't mean it will be that way in 5 years. And the Mavs aren't anywhere close to competing for a ring.

If the Mavs want to try to win next season, then they need a well-balanced team. Definitely still need a center regardless of where the league is right now.

I don't know man, I think the league has discovered 3 points is worth more than 2. I have no reason to think this is just a flash in the pan trend.

[Zeus]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I'm not really sure why people think it's cyclical or why it will change anytime soon without some sort of rules or reffing change and the NBA have ZERO reason to change. High scoring games are popular. The big swings that the three can bring make games more exciting. Seems like something that the NBA loves and it's predicated on players being able to shoot which they are right now and the best/most prolific scorers aren’t retiring anytime soon.

Top NBA 3pt shooters 2017-2018 and their current age
Harden - 28
George - 28
Lowry - 30
Kemba - 28
Thompson - 28
Lillard - 27
Ellington - 30
Gordon - 29
Curry - 30
Ingles - 30

Add to that the number of shooters entering the league from the draft this year

Top Draft prospect shooters and their percentages
Zhaire Smith - 45%
Mikal Bridges - 44%
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk - 44%
Landry Shamet - 44%
Aaron Holiday - 43%
Omari Spellman - 43%
Khyri Thomas - 42%
Mitchell Robinson - 41%
Wendell Carter Jr. - 41%
Caleb Martin - 40%
Donte Divencenzo - 40%
Marvin Bagley - 40%
Jaren Jackson Jr. - 40%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 40%
Elie Okobo - 40% (euro)
Gary Trent Jr. 40%
Miles Bridges - 39%
Anerfernee Simins - 38%
Grayson Allen - 37%
Kevin Huerter - 37%
Jacob Evans - 37%
Chandler Hutchison - 36%
Trae Young - 36%
Lonnie Walker - 35%
Kevin Knox - 34%
Collin Sexton - 34%
Luka Doncic - 31% (euro)
Michael Porter Jr.- 30% (injury?)

We have the highest 3pt% average of any draft class EVER. If anything the three is going to become a bigger deal in the near future.

In addition, every single year I looked at since 1997 had more threes than the year before. We're looking at a trend that started before Dirk entered the league and doesn't seem to be stopping. Not only does the NBA have no reason to curb the importance of threes, the trend has been going for over two decades.


It also makes it hard for a center to be effective. They can score more easily with defenses spread around the perimeter, but their FGs are only worth a 67% of what a three is worth. In addition, there are fewer close shots to block and the rebounds from threes most often bounce outside of the paint, meaning that centers are less important because defense, rebounding, AND scoring. It may be easier to score and pull down a rebound, but they're given fewer and fewer opportunities to do so.

It's why centers have gotten smaller, trimmer, and lighter-- and some have even learned to shoot threes. You have to be able to guard the perimeter, switch, and corral the long rebounds that are created by threes. Otherwise there are fewer and fewer shots to block/defend inside and fewer and fewer rebounds in the paint. To be effective guys have to move and play like guards/forwards.

Absolutely agree with every thing you said here. I still find it amazing that people aren't quite grasping the fact that 3 points is more than 2 points. The mid range jumper is the most illogical play in all of sports.

[dirt_dobber]

Never been this excited for our draft picks since the early 80's.
4 days and 8 hours away...
Oh - and Happy Fathers' day Dirk!

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Enjoy the quiet Sunday before the storm and happy father's day to all the dads.

Tomorrow, the draft shit hits the fan.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Enjoy the quiet Sunday before the storm and happy father's day to all the dads.

Tomorrow, the draft shit hits the fan.

Why? You hear rumors that something is happening Monday?

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by dirt_dobber

Never been this excited for our draft picks since the early 80's.
4 days and 8 hours away...
Oh - and Happy Fathers' day Dirk!

It's rare that we get top 10 picks. In the last 25 years we've only had a five of our own and one from the Wizards. Let that sink in. Five in 25 years. One in the last decade (Smith Jr.) and two in the last 15 years (Smith and Harris)

Top 10 Mavs draft picks in the last 25 years
2017 - 9 - Dennis Smith
1998 - 6 - Robert Traylor (traded for Dirk at 9)
1996 - 6 - Samaki Walker
1994 - 2 - Jason Kidd
1993 - 4 - Jamal Mashburn

Also, not technically drafted BY us, but FOR us (Wizards' pick)
2004 - 5th* - Devin Harris

The last time the Mavs had their own pick (and not another team's) was 20 years and three days before this year's draft and it ultimately netted us Dirk and a piece that we used to get Nash.

There is absolutely a reason to be excited. Not only can one top-10 pick be the difference between 20 years of success and 20 years of mediocrity, it's also only the second time since Harris 14 years ago that we've had a top 10 and the second time in twenty years that we've had our own top 10 pick.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Why? You hear rumors that something is happening Monday?

I can't imagine anything but a rollercoaster next three days of rumors/trades/predictions/speculation.

[hayth.james.g]

I'm feeling more nervous than excited right now. I am praying the Cuban "playoff" talk is just a smoke screen. We need to build our new core and we are in the perfect position to do it.

I know there are members here that would be fine with a trade down scenario that nets us Wendell Carter. I view this as the worst possible scenario. Mikal Bridges MAYBE would be fine if it meant we add a first next year from a bad team, but buying into a dying breed of center I just can't buy into.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Zeus

Absolutely agree with every thing you said here. I still find it amazing that people aren't quite grasping the fact that 3 points is more than 2 points. The mid range jumper is the most illogical play in all of sports.

And a well chosen and executed midrange Jumper is still better than a lot of these wild contested Shots from downtown...

[Underdog]

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I can’t tell if it’s just the fact that we have a top pick, but this draft has more storylines and built up anticipation than I can remember in recent history. The last draft I remember with this much intrigue was the NFL draft when Eli Manning forced his way out of San Diego to go to the New York Giants.

I really believe we can find a contributor at 33 as well. Fingers crossed the basketball Gods shine down on us once again.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by tap2390

I can’t tell if it’s just the fact that we have a top pick, but this draft has more storylines and built up anticipation than I can remember in recent history. The last draft I remember with this much intrigue was the NFL draft when Eli Manning forced his way out of San Diego to go to the New York Giants.

I don't remember nearly as much drama last year, and we only drafted 4 picks lower than this year, so I don't think it's just a matter of perspective.

[EricaLubarsky]

Doncic with a very Harden line

2-4 shooting. 10/11 from FT

20-9-3 in only 20 min

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Doncic with a very Harden line

2-4 shooting. 10/11 from FT

20-9-3 in only 20 min

If he has a strong EuroFlop a la Manu Ginobili, then we might just have then next superstar on our hands... Although he doesn't look like he can grow a beard, so who knows?

[Melonhead]

Nba teams in the top 5 came away unimpressed, and Doncics draft stock continues to falter.

From Givony twitter

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Nba teams in the top 5 came away unimpressed, and Doncics draft stock continues to falter.

From Givony twitter

Lol. Good. I'd take him all day. Even at 2. I'd bet he's gonna be great

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Yeah, if Doncic falls you probably take him, but he won't. No way he gets past three teams before us.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Yeah, if Doncic falls you probably take him, but he won't. No way he gets past three teams before us.

IMO the only combination of picks where that happens:

1) Suns - Ayton
2) Kings - Bagley
3) Hawks - Young
4) Grizz - Porter Jr.


At this point that would be a dream scenario.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by tap2390

IMO the only combination of picks where that happens:

1) Suns - Ayton
2) Kings - Bagley
3) Hawks - Young
4) Grizz - Porter Jr.


At this point that would be a dream scenario.

A Fisher mock and NBAdraft.net had us getting him, so you know 0% chance of happening.

[Zaman314125]

Originally Posted by tap2390

IMO the only combination of picks where that happens:

1) Suns - Ayton
2) Kings - Bagley
3) Hawks - Young
4) Grizz - Porter Jr.


At this point that would be a dream scenario.

Or you could sub Jackson Jr instead of Young for the Hawks. I'd love for all the GMs to overthink this and pass on a talent like Doncic.

[GermanStandard]

I was in Madrid and saw Doncic live for the 2nd time. While he has his moments i came away with the Impression that he really perfectly fits the Euro Game with a lot of Setplay and System Basketball but could have real Trouble in the NBA where its much more Iso and Freestyle. Just like guys like Calathes or Shved who own Europe but failed in the NBA.

He seems to be a bit overweight too which takes away explosiveness. You can either hope that the NBA Nutrition and Condition Program gets him into better shape or you might get a Player that has Troubles with Speed especially in Defense.

The Thing is that he really has the Allaround Game. He made a step back 3, found Players after PnR, was found at the Boards and showed some Post Game...
If he falls to 5 its still a No Brainer, as you get a Player that should have atleast a Gordon Hayward like Career Statswise but could also turn into much more.

In Terms of Save Pick hes #1

[Underdog]

Why is Twitter telling me to google Luka Doncic’s mom? Oh damn, move him up to the top of the rankings, I guess.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Why is Twitter telling me to google Luka Doncic’s mom? Oh damn, move him up to the top of the rankings, I guess.

That poor, poor kid. Luckily Dallas has a lot of plastic surgeons willing and able to mess that face up.

[Luke]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Doncic with a very Harden line

2-4 shooting. 10/11 from FT

20-9-3 in only 20 min

Did he hit two five point shots?

[Luke]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Anyone know when the draft is?

[hayth.james.g]

I love it. Scouts doing what scouts do best... Overthinking.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bCFS2wviqD0

No reason to overthink it. Guy has some of the best passing you can find.

On a side note, I do agree with his playing weight. Interesting that he seems to be 10 lbs or so heavy at the end of such a stretch of games.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

I love it. Scouts doing what scouts do best... Overthinking.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bCFS2wviqD0

No reason to overthink it. Guy has some of the best passing you can find.

On a side note, I do agree with his playing weight. Interesting that he seems to be 10 lbs or so heavy at the end of such a stretch of games.

That athleticism is still non-existent in NBA terms. He is going to have a hell of a time handling double teams. Hell, even single coverage against an athletic defender will give him fits.

But...that talent isn't teachable for sure. Still don't think people should fall in love with him falling to 5 though. It could happen, but I sincerely doubt it will.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Luke

Did he hit two five point shots?

Good catch.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by Luke

Did he hit two five point shots?

Daryl Morey already informed the Rockets they will take only shots at the rim and five-pointers moving forward.

[EricaLubarsky]

Draftexpress is the most consistently accurate mock over the last fifteen years both in terms of getting draft positions right and when wrong, within the fewest slots.

This is what they have for their final mock:
Ayton
Doncic
Bamba
Jackson
Bagley