Obama beats McCain in three swing states: poll

[Janett_Reno]

Pennsylvania Rasmussen Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Obama 51, McCain 44 Obama +7
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
Maine Rasmussen Obama 56, McCain 43 Obama +13
Ohio Mason-Dixon Obama 45, McCain 47 McCain +2
Ohio Columbus Dispatch* Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
North Carolina Mason-Dixon Obama 46, McCain 49 McCain +3
Virginia Mason-Dixon Obama 47, McCain 44 Obama +3
VA-Pres Nov 2 SurveyUSA Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 46%
Colorado Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Iowa Des Moines Register Obama 54, McCain 37 Obama +17
Nevada LVRJ/Mason-Dixon Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4
Missouri Mason-Dixon McCain 47, Obama 46 McCain +1
NM-Pres Nov 2 Alb. Journal Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 43%
FL-Pres Nov 2 Mason-Dixon Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%


I think McCain will probably win MO, IN, MT, ND, SD, AZ, GA maybe NC. I think Obama takes PA, CO, NV, NM, NH, VA. OH and FL is a total toss up for me to call and it seems those two states happen like this everytime. I am not real sure on NC either. I will say this, McCain has closed enough that it probably won't be a landslide but it is still close. If he can take enough of these swing states it will make it a respectable race. I do not think GA is real safe for McCain either. I give him the nod on GA but if voters keep turning out in GA, anything can happen.

In the senate i think McConnell is going to hold on with his 6 or 7 point lead. I am thinking Franken does win in MN and today i noticed a poll with him up 4. The scarry thing for McCain in NC, i think Dole will be beat and this makes it a very close race in the pres in NC. Chambliss in GA, maybe hangs on. Not sure. I feel dems get to 59 in senate. I can see 58 or even 60 if Chambliss falls but my pick will be 59. I think Bernie Sanders votes with the dems alot and he is an independent. Joe McCain Lieberman claims he is a dem but i don't think so and i wish he would go ahead and turn republican. It might be hard for him to get re elected his next time anyway. Knowing him, he can switch from dem, republican or independent, whatever open slot it is.

[Janett_Reno]

More on Chambliss/Martin in GA. Very interesting race. If no candidate gets above 50 percent, this race is headed into a December runoff between the top two vote getters. The democrats may be battling for that 60th Senate seat late into the year.

Early votting on Chambliss/Martin

Already voted (12 percent of sample)

Chambliss (R) 39
Martin (D) 56
Buckley (L) 5

GA Pres early voters

Already voted

McCain (R) 40
Obama (D) 55

AZ Early Votes

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54

[Janett_Reno]

Obama leads McCain by 6 points

http://www.reuters.com/article/polit...34134020081102

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain firmed marginally to 6 points with support for both candidates steady before Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.

Obama leads McCain by 50 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, up from a 5-point advantage on Saturday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

"There are two full days to go before Election Day and obviously anything can happen, but it is hard to see where McCain goes from here," pollster John Zogby said.

He said the polling data over the weekend showed that both candidates appeared to be consolidating support among their core supporters -- women and independents for Obama, older voters and conservatives for McCain.

National opinion polls all give the lead to Obama, who also appears to be outflanking McCain in a number of the battleground states that will end up deciding the election.

McCain spent Saturday campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania -- states that electoral strategists regard as crucial to his hopes for victory -- while Obama pushed for an advantage in three states that went for President George W. Bush in 2004: Nevada, Colorado and Missouri.

The poll showed Obama well ahead among voters who had already participated in early balloting, leading McCain in this group by 56 percent to 39 percent.

Women and independent voters, groups that are expected to play an important role in this election, continue to back Obama although his margin is not as wide as it was late last month.

Obama enjoys an 8-point lead among women voters and a 10-point lead among independents.

McCain continues to hold a strong lead among white voters, 54 percent to 40 percent, and among voters who identify themselves as members of the "investor class," who support him by a 9-point margin.

Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, wins 93 percent support among black voters and 65 percent among Hispanics.

Independent Ralph Nader received 2 percent in the national survey, and Libertarian Bob Barr was at 1 percent. About 2 percent of voters remain undecided.

The rolling tracking poll, taken Wednesday through Friday, surveyed 1,201 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day's results are added, while the oldest day's results are dropped to monitor changing momentum.

The U.S. presidency is determined by which candidate wins the Electoral College, which has 538 members apportioned by population in each state and the District of Columbia. Electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis in all but two states, which divide them by congressional district.
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Now this is Janett, remember me saying long ago, the gop party turned their back on latinos? Bush got them by throwing a few words out in Spanish and then in the debates, all but one republican wanted to debate on a latino network. They claimed they were busy. I am not sure and maybe months and months later they did do something but at the time and for many months, it was like we don't care, we are doing our own thang. Now this thang is 65% going for Obama. The latino vote was with Hillary and then Obama. The gop didn't think this vote seemed important. Now let's look at women. Palin was suppose to win Hillary women voters and Obama has an 8 point lead with women. Palin backfired. Thank goodness they kept Romney off the ticket. Remember when guys like McCain and Lieberman were "Mavericks" and was more of an Independent? Now Obama is taking independents at a 10% more clip than former independent McCain. This was way before he sold out to Bush/Cheney and joined them.

So see, all these things matter. Women saw it, independents saw it, latinos saw it. Even many big wig gop's are endorsing Obama. You know it was a joke not long ago on SNL when Bush was holding Macs hand endorsing him as Mac was trying to pull away. A comedy skit on SNL(actors). Next few days you hear of W votting for Big Mac and then a weekend later, Cheney throws his weight around with a big endorsement for John McCain.

I bet McCain wishes he never heard of SC, swiftboats, Sarah Palin , George W Bush and Dick Cheney. His timming was bad as he didn't join in with the neocons when neocon times was hopping but as soon as they took office and threw him under the bus, then he joined in thinking the cons could put him into higher places and now the wheels jump off for the cons and now he gets his big W and Cheney endorsement as they pick him a woman on his vp ticket he probably never had even heard of before they sent her to him. It is even now showing his(Mac's) senator run seat in 2010 and a lady out ahead of him big time. A democrat(lady) out in front of Big Mac. Makes me wonder if he will even stay in politics in 2010. Big Mac was a day late and a dollar short. He should have stayed with whom he was.

[Janett_Reno]

These are interesting seeing these daily polls chart form. This is FL

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/FLPoll.htm

It is close but looking at the polls, Obama keeps about a 2 point lead, i am guessing average on all these polls. So Obama looks good in FL. It can go either way but Obama has a good chance in FL.

Next poll IN

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/INPoll.htm

This is neck and neck close. Obama has never really jumped out ahead to many times and every now and then McCain has had a small lead but this state looks so so close. McCain can not shake him in IN. A democrat hasn't won here in ages. Where i give Obama a small edge in FL by maybe 2 points or so, i think i would give McCain an edge in IN by 1 or 2 points.

NM is a done deal. Obama has won.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/NMPoll.htm

Here in PA, McCain closed some but i don't see where McCain can win. I give him credit trying in PA andf trying hard but he can't overcome the Clintons, Biden, and Rendell. Most of these states i am reporting on here are Romney helpers, not Pain. Palin helps her 35% base but not women, independents and democrats. Here is a better look at PA. Obama will carry PA more than what Kerry and Gore did. I'll put Obama as a win in PA at 6 to 9 points. That is a big spread from what dems have been doing in last elections.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/PAPoll.htm

Obama has to big a lead in national polls. Bush had 2 or 3 point lead on Kerry and Gore and he won.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/PresPoll.htm

WI is over. Obama has won here.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/WIPoll.htm

Thisis a good map here and you can see the ev totals with Obama a blowout. Obama should win the ones they have blue and light blue with maybe OH to close to call but yes Obama has a lead in OH. Even FL and NC are shaded Obama but very close. They even have IN and MO a tie. I think we have a blow out. In my mind i thought Obama would secure FL maybe before he did OH but and neither state is secure and both leaning Obama but OH looks stronger than FL for Obama. I think the connection of Obama in IL, Biden connection in DE and PA, then the Clintons strong all down thru there was to much thru that part of the map.

The gop party took two from the west and one far west. Look what is happening in northeast, sweeping down to VA, NC and all the way over to IL and states in between and then the north. The more i look at this, the race will be over fast Tuesday night. WV and KY should hold up for the gop but many are going to fall for the dems. Even AZ sandwitched around Cali, NM, NV and CO is starting to turn to Obama. Dean, Dean the yelling machine is going to Big Macs state Monday and going to try to turn AZ to blue Tuesday.

Man oh man, a FL, OH and VA and throw in NC sweep for the dems and pair it up with NC, CO and IA staying with Obama from the beginning. Who knows when they start talking about GA, AZ and IN. Take it over 300 ev's Obama. Color that whole map blue. Get er done.

[Janett_Reno]

This is good map i mentioned above.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/polls08.htm

Obama can take this out over 300 ev's.

[Janett_Reno]

More news one day before the big day. Gop running to Obama.

Florida U. McCain Chairman Resigns, Votes For Obama

A speechwriter for Reagan and Nixon—who worked at the National Review for four decades—on why he's voting for Obama. Edmund Burke

National NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 51, McCain 43 Obama +8
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
National Gallup Obama 55, McCain 44 Obama +11
National Diageo/Hotline Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 51, McCain 44 Obama +7
National GWU/Battleground Obama 50, McCain 44 Obama +6

Ohio PPP (D) Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
Ohio Reuters/Zogby Obama 50, McCain 44 Obama +6
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7
Ohio Univ of Cinci/Ohio Poll Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
Pennsylvania PPP (D) Obama 53, McCain 45 Obama +8
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
Pennsylvania Reuters/Zogby Obama 54, McCain 40 Obama +14
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 52, McCain 42 Obama +10
Florida PPP (D) Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2
Florida Reuters/Zogby Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7
North Carolina PPP (D) Obama 50, McCain 49 Obama +1
North Carolina Reuters/Zogby Obama 48, McCain 49 McCain +1
Georgia PPP (D) McCain 50, Obama 48 McCain +2
Montana PPP (D) McCain 47, Obama 48 Obama +1
Virginia Reuters/Zogby Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Minnesota SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
Missouri Reuters/Zogby McCain 46, Obama 47 Obama +1
MO-Pres Nov 3 SurveyUSA Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 48%
Nevada Reuters/Zogby Obama 51, McCain 43 Obama +8
Indiana Reuters/Zogby McCain 49, Obama 44 McCain +5

Senate
--------------

North Carolina Senate PPP (D) Hagan 51, Dole 44 Hagan +7
Georgia Senate PPP (D) Chambliss 48, Martin 46 Chambliss +2
Montana Senate PPP (D) Baucus 71, Kelleher 26 Baucus +45
Minnesota Senate SurveyUSA Coleman 44, Franken 39, Barkley 16 Coleman +5
North Carolina Senate Mason-Dixon Hagan 45, Dole 46 Dole +1

[Janett_Reno]

The more i read, the more beautiful things i see and this comes to ya from Big Sky Country. Janett now predicts a landslide. States of MO, NC and maybe IN, MT and GA will be close. PA, IA, NH, VA, OH, CO, NV, and even FL i am putting in the Obama colum. Yes FL is close but it looks like it is blue to me. Big Mac might pull off IN, SD, ND, MT and AZ. MT is showing a tie or Obama up one and MT out in the Big Sky Country is putting some blue on their map here lately. Big Mac should win Arkansas but i remember Bill saying he might speak in Ark and Big Mac had a big lead there and for some reason that state went deep red to lighter shade red. The Clintons have a way of making red, blue. That is why Dude voted for Obama and why he fears the Clintons so much. No matter Dude, if you voted for Obama or Hillary, either way you could tell your grand children, i voted for the winner because both was going to beat Big Mac. The neocons hasn't got long now. They are fixing to move out of the white house and will always be known for the party that tried to put the American people in the Out house. Back to the map, come on NC and GA let's paint that map good and blue and take it down deep in the south. Push Obama's ev's up over 350. As Big Mac would say, my friends, we can do this thang.

PPP Poll: Very Close Race in Montana
The final Public Policy Polling survey in Montana shows Sen. Barack Obama inching ahead of Sen. John McCain, 48% to 47%.

Key finding: "Like in many states, the contest in Montana is going to come down to election day turnout. Among those who say they have already cast their ballots in the state, Barack Obama has built up a 61-35 lead. Among those planning to vote on Tuesday John McCain has a 53-40 advantage. The extent to which those folks follow through is likely to be the deciding factor in who takes the state."

PPP Poll: Obama Holds Small Lead in Florida
The final Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain, 50% to 48%.

Key finding: "Over half of those who plan to vote in Florida this fall already have, and among those voters Barack Obama has built up a a 56-43 lead. That leaves John McCain playing catch up if he hopes to take the state on election day- he has a 54-42 lead among those folks planning to vote Tuesday, but the big question is whether they will really turn out."

The Cellphone Effect
Nate Silver notes the national polls that include cell phone users have Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain by an average of 9.4 points while the landline-only polls have him ahead by just 5.1 points.

WP/ABC Poll: Obama Opens 11 Point Lead
The latest Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain, 54% to 43%, among likely voters.

Key findings: "The ranks of persuadable voters has dwindled to 7% heading into the final day. One part of McCain's steep challenge is that more than a quarter of the probable electorate has already voted -- among these early birds, 59% said they voted for Obama, 40% for McCain."

SurveyUSA: Missouri is a Toss Up
The final SurveyUSA poll in Missouri finds the presidential race tied with both Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain each getting 48% support.

This is the same result as last week's poll.

Key factor: "The more younger voters who turn-out, the better Obama's chances. The more older voters who turn-out, the better McCain's chances."

PPP Poll: McCain Clings to Lead in Georgia
The final Public Policy Polling survey in Georgia shows Sen. John McCain edging Sen. Barack Obama by just two points, 50% to 48%.

Key finding: "Obama still has a decent chance of pulling off the upset in Georgia. He's leading 52-47 among voters who have already cast their ballots, which accounts for 57% of those surveyed. John McCain is up 54-43 with those planning to vote tomorrow."

[Janett_Reno]

Voters in GA, remember Chambliss when you get out and vote and see if this sounds like a man you wanting to run your country. The neocons need to be swept up and sent back to Crawford, all of them. McConnell and Chambliss are two more that need to be not forgotten. A vote for Mitch and Cham is a vote for Rummy, W and Chains. Don't forget the rubber stamper in NC, Lizzy. Her and Mitch 'e Poo hadn't never seen a Bush bill they didn't like. I wonder when they ring ole Rummy up if they don't call him by "Big Daddy". Hey Big Daddy, how did Chains say we needed to vote, yes or no? I have my rubber stamp ready.


The Super-Close Senate Race You've Never Heard Of
In 2002, Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss was running against Senator Max Cleland (D-Ga.), in one of the most bitter races of that election cycle. With 9/11 still fresh, Chambliss ran an attack ad featuring a photo of Osama bin Laden that accused Cleland, a Vietnam veteran and triple amputee, of not having the "courage to lead" on national security. The ad worked; Chambliss won. But even Republicans thought the attack on Cleland's patriotism was over the top: Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) called it "beyond offensive." This year, Democrats are looking to get their revenge by kicking Chambliss to the curb. And they think Jim Martin, a longtime state legislator and former candidate for lieutenant governor, is just the man to avenge Cleland.

Can Democrats really pick up a seat in deep-red Georgia? Until late September, it didn't look possible. Chambliss led by a 17-point margin in a poll released on September 16. But as the economy worsened, Chambliss suddenly appeared vulnerable. Now most polls have Martin within a few points. Martin has yet to show a lead in a major non-partisan poll, but Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com thinks the polls are "lowballing" Martin and the race is closer than it seems:

[Janett_Reno]

Not dropping any names because i am not a good name dropper but this next Lizzy ad sounds like someone in the forum i know. See how the neocons try to get your vote, just like the next ad. That is why most of the cons are getting beat and are going home. The American people see thru the con game. Even turned ole Big Mac into a big attack dog. By doing so and going for broke, he is losing in his 2010 re election senator bid in AZ(Polling bad now). A woman, ole Big Mac seems to have women problems at every turn.



Godless Catfight—Elizabeth Dole and Kay Hagan Fight Over the Lord

In a campaign rife with ugly moments, Sen. Elizabeth Dole's new TV ad accusing Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan, Dole's opponent for a U.S. Senate seat from North Carolina, of accepting "godless" money is one of the ugliest. It is emblematic of Dole's desperation mode in the final stages of what looks like a losing campaign for re-election.

Polls show the veteran GOP cabinet secretary, presidential candidate, and now senator running slightly behind a Democratic novice. That, more than anything, accounts for Dole's latest TV ad. The Washington Post reports that the ad accuses Hagan of taking money from an atheist political action committee and "ends with an image of Hagan on the screen and a female voice saying, 'There is no God.' "

The PAC calls itself the "Godless Americans PAC," which, quite frankly, is not the most eloquent way to describe itself. This group definitely needs a new copy writer. How 'bout: "The Freedom from Religion PAC" or the "Separation of Church and State PAC"?

What is perhaps the saddest aspect of this catfight is that Hagan felt compelled to wage a counterattack, defending her bona fide Christian credentials as a Sunday school teacher and believer. The South hasn't changed much at all, has it?