Obama beats McCain in three swing states: poll

[Janett_Reno]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...y_in_play.html

Sen. Barack Obama's campaign is calling Indiana a battleground state, "and it's putting money into the state and assigning a key staff member here," according to the Indianapolis Star.

Obama is now running an advertisement in Indiana and 17 other states.

However, Larry Sabato doesn't think the state is realy competitive. Said Sabato: "They're playing with Senator McCain's campaign. They're messing with their minds."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...ery_close.html
A new Rasmussen Reports survey in Colorado finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by just two points, 43% to 41%.

Colorado has gone Republican in the last three presidential elections but Obama has put it into the swing state category this year.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...petititve.html

A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia shows a very competitive race with Sen. John McCain barely edging Sen. Barack Obama, 44% to 43%, with Libertarian candidate Bob Barr getting 6%.

Said pollster Matt Towery: "Georgia is competitive for Obama for several reasons. First, it has a high African-American voting age population. Second, it has an unusually high percentage of younger voters (18-29). Both of these groups are more in the Obama camp, with black voters already at the 83 percent level and likely to climb."

"Equally important, like its neighbor Florida, Georgia has a high percentage of voters who consider themselves independent. Obama is carrying that critical swing vote by about 10 percent in the poll."

Last month on Political Insider: Will Barr put Georgia in play?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...petititve.html

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain, 47% to 45%.

Key findings: "The key to his success, as in Ohio, is that he is bringing most Democrats back into the fold following the contentious primary season. He leads McCain 78% to 17% with folks in his own party, a perfectly respectable showing in a southern state where many who identify themselves as Democrats don't necessarily vote that way in federal elections."
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Both candidates are winning about four of every five voters from their own party, but Obama enjoys a substantial 22-point lead among political independents.

WA-Pres
June 21 SurveyUSAObama (D) 55%, McCain (R) 40%

---------------------------------------------------------------

KENTUCKY (SurveyUSA): McCain - 53%, Obama - 41%.
MINNESOTA (SurveyUSA): Obama - 47%, McCain - 46%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas/TelOpinion-R): McCain - 45%, Obama - 41%.
OHIO (Public Policy Polling): Obama - 50%, McCain - 39%.
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%

[dude1394]

As usual...Janett just can't control herself. She jumped the gun with clinton and is jumping the gun with obama.

Thankfully the US electorate has never voted in a flaming liberal before. Hopefully they won't this time.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Ga...n-Tied-45.aspx

Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%
Obama had held at least a slim advantage for most of June

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election finds John McCain and Barack Obama exactly tied at 45% among registered voters nationwide.

[wmbwinn]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 49% to 45%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided Tracking poll results are updated at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day. Just 22% now say the McCain is too old to be President, down from 30% who held that view earlier.Forty-one percent (41%) continue to believe that Obama is too inexperienced.

The race has remained very stable in recent weeks. Without leaners, Obama’s support has stayed between 45% and 47% for fourteen straight days. With leaners, he has stayed between 48% and 50% for twenty straight days.

As for McCain, his support has been at 40% or 41% on eighteen of the last twenty-one days. Twice, he inched up a point above that range and once he slipped a point below. With leaners, McCain’s support has stayed between 42% and 45% every day since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination (see recent daily results).

Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 43%. However, in findings that mirror an “enthusiasm gap” found in other polls, 32% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while just 16% are that upbeat about McCain. Opposition to Obama is also stronger--26% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee while just 19% say the same about his Republican counterpart (see recent daily favorables).

With the race stable for the moment, Obama is preparing to make his first campaign appearances with former rival Hillary Clinton. Just 37% of voters think Clinton wants Obama to win in November. Thirty-three percent (33%) say she does not want an Obama victory and 30% are not sure.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters want the federal government to get “actively” involved in efforts to bring down the price of gas and oil. By a two-to-margin, they say that providing incentives to private companies is more effective than having government conduct the research on its own. However, a pair of incentive programs proposed by McCain receive lukewarm reviews from voters nationwide.

Earlier polling has shown strong support for offshore drilling both nationally and in Florida. However, the reaction in California is far different. Polling conducted in the Golden State during McCain’s recent visit found the Republican falling twenty-eight points behind Obama. Additional national polling on the energy issue will be released Thursday morning by Rasmussen Reports.

New polling data on the Presidential campaign in Nebraska will be released today at Noon Eastern. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data on the Generic Congressional Ballot will be released. Polling released earlier this week showed Obama up by four points in Pennsylvania and up by eight in New Mexico. McCain leads in the very Republican state of Utah. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 81% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds a three-point edge among unaffiliated voters. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—30% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 33% are that certain of their support for McCain

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

[Janett_Reno]

Quinnipiac Poll

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1188

An emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to leads of five to 17 percentage points over Arizona Sen. John McCain among likely voters in the battleground states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin," according to four Quinnipiac University polls released today, conducted with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com.

Sen. McCain's lead among white voters in Colorado and Michigan cuts the gap to single digits, but doesn't offset Sen. Obama's strength among other groups. The Democrat also leads by eight to 21 percentage points among independent voters in each state. Overall results show:

* Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 - 44 percent, including 51 - 39 percent among independent voters;
* Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent, with 46 - 38 percent among independents;
* Minnesota: Obama buries McCain 54 - 37 percent, and 54 - 33 percent with independents;
* Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 52 - 39 percent, and 50 - 37 percent with independents.

Democrats would like Obama to pick Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate, but voters overall reject the idea. Independent voters oppose Sen. Clinton by 16 to 29 percentage points.

I also saw where McCain is winning TN big and is ahead 6 or 7 points in Mo. I agree it is along long time and anything can happen.

[Janett_Reno]

Looking at the polls, Obama should put more money in Tx. If McCain loses one of the biggest strong hold republican states with that many votes, it would be no way he could win and yes it would be a landslide. Lattest polls.

COLORADO (Quinnipiac University): Obama - 49%, McCain - 44%.
MICHIGAN (Quinnipiac University): Obama - 48%, McCain - 42%.
MINNESOTA (Quinnipiac University): Obama - 54%, McCain - 37%.
MISSISSIPPI (Rasmussen): McCain 50%, Obama - 44%.
TENNESSEE (Rasmussen): McCain 51%, Obama - 36%.
TEXAS (Texas Lyceum): McCain - 43%, Obama - 38%.
WISCONSIN (Quinnipiac University): Obama - 52%, McCain - 39%.

Tx is way to close for a gop strong hold. This is unheard of. Ms is within the taking and i also feel he will shrink the lead for McCain there. Signing up more voters ever in MS and this time people comming out in record numbers to vote. I am liking what i see for change and that is what is comming. Keep on keeping on Barack.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Two more states have shifted to Barack Obama's column in the new CNN Electoral Map that charts the candidates’ strength leading up to the November election.

"Toss-up" states Minnesota and Wisconsin were re-designated to "Lean-Obama" Friday, giving the presumptive Democratic nominee another 20 electoral votes in CNN's current estimate. The Illinois senator now has 231 electoral votes — 39 shy of winning the presidency.

CNN made the change after new polling conducted by Quinnipiac University showed that Obama holds double-digit leads over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in both states. CNN's analysis estimates McCain has 194 electoral votes.

This is only a CNN estimate and is likely to change many more times in the lead up to the election.

The Quinnipiac surveys, released Thursday, showed Obama with a 17-point lead in Minnesota, 54-37 percent, and a 13 point lead in Wisconsin, 52-39 percent.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...hift-to-obama/

[rabbitproof]

[dude1394]

Democrat energy policy.

[rabbitproof]

Man, I think you missed the point on that toon but maybe I did. I thought of it as McCain trying to tap into some ole Bush goodwill for his campaign and saw *that* gauge hitting the "E".

but if we're shifting to energy and staying with this motif..

[dude1394]

You are correct, I didn't see mccain there, but it still fits.

[Janett_Reno]

McCain's Arizona Woes Continue
New Poll Shows Obama Up by Three Points in McCain's Home State

http://washingtonindependent.com/vie...s-arizona-woes

In a sign of continued weakness in his home state, an online poll shows Sen. John McCain trailing Sen. Barack Obama by 3-percentage points in Arizona. The poll also shows the candidacy of Liberterian Bob Barr is having a significant impact on McCain's campaign by siphoning off conservative voters nationwide.

The Arizona poll was part of nationwide Zogby International poll that put Obama ahead in total electoral votes with 273 to 160 for McCain. The poll found 11 states with 105 electoral votes too close to call -- including Arizona. McCain’s campaign in June included Arizona among its list of swing states.

McCain not only faced problems with Independent voters, he is losing a small, but potentially lethal voting block of the GOP right to Barr. The former Republican congressman from Georgia is pulling just enough voters in many states to shift the balance to Obama. Whether this bloc will remain in Barr's camp on election day could determine the outcome.

“Barr is hurting McCain all across the country,” said Fritz Wenzel, director of communications for Zogby.

The Zogby poll of 1,142 likely Arizona voters was conducted June 11-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey found Obama leading in Arizona with 42 percent of the vote, followed by McCain with 39 percent. Barr had 7 percent, followed by Independent Ralph Nader with 2 percent. Five percent of the voters selected other candidates and 5 percent were undecided.

Wenzel said 16 percent of Arizona voters who described themselves as very conservative said they would vote for Barr, with 64 percent backing McCain. The double-digit defection to Barr signals further trouble ahead for Arizona’s senior Senator.

“That’s very dangerous for a Republican candidate,” Wentzel said.

The poll shows Obama crushing McCain among Arizona Independent voters, 51 percent to 28 percent. The number of Independent voters in Arizona has skyrocketed in the last year and now makes up 27 percent of the state's voters. Republicans continue to hold a narrow 38 percent to 34 percent lead over Democrats in registered voters.

The McCain campaign did not return a call this afternoon from The Washington Independent for comment on the poll. The Arizona Republic reported Thursday that McCain's campaign called the Zogby poll a "fraud" and questioned the methodology of Internet polling. "John McCain has won every campaign he has run in Arizona, and he will win in November," Kurt Davis, Arizona McCain '08 co-chairman, told the newspaper.

John Zogby, president and chief executive officer of Zogby, said the poll was a scientific survey of voters likely to participate. "This is, for the moment, a very useful tool that suggests to me that John McCain has not closed the deal in his home state," Zogby told the Republic.

Recent polls of Arizona registered voters by traditional pollsters have found McCain leading Obama by about 10 percentage points, with Obama steadily narrowing the gap. In April, McCain led Obama by 20 points. In late June, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey showed McCain with 49 percent of the vote and Obama with 40 percent.

A statewide Cronkite/Eight poll of registered voters conducted by Arizona State University in late June found that 38 percent said they would vote for McCain and 28 percent said they would vote for Obama, with 34 percent undecided.

Traditional pollsters relying on telephone surveys often criticize online polls for their lack of scientific methodology. “Online polls are not being heavily relied upon and are not anything other than folkloric,” said Earl de Berg, director of the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center that conducts the Rocky Mountain Poll. The latest Rocky Mountain Poll conducted in May found McCain with 10-percentage point lead over Obama in Arizona.

But, de Berg said, if the online poll is properly conducted, it could be a valid measurement. "If their sampling is good, then their numbers stand on their own right," he said.

Wentzel said the sampling is carefully controlled to mirror the percentage of voters registered as Democrats, Republicans and Independents. The online survey is followed up with a telephone validation survey of 2 percent of the online respondents. Strict controls are also employed to prevent survey participants from voting multiple times under different names. “It’s highly controlled," Wentzel said, "and it’s a very scientific process.”

Wentzel said the significant difference between the Zogby poll showing Obama leading Arizona while other polls have McCain up by about 10 percentage points can be attributed to Zogby’s focus on likely voters as opposed to registered voters.

Wentzel said the national race remains close even though the survey shows Obama winning 273 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. “It’s way too close to make any conclusive remarks about who is going to win this election,” he said. “But it is clear that Obama is not only holding his own in key Democratic strongholds, but he is making inroads into traditional Republican areas.”

[dude1394]

Ah Barack Waffle Obama seems to be making the inmates a little crazy.

Left wing blog site too. Heh...
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6906

Obama has dropped in the latest Newsweek poll. He's gone from 51-36 over McCain to 44-41. The most striking piece of data though is that 53% of registered voters think that he has changed his position on key policy issues to try to gain political advantage since becoming the nominee.

That is stunning. Over half of the public, though perhaps has not heard of the FISA fight specifically, believes he shifts positions for political advantage. And why shouldn't they? He did. The drop was substantially concentrated among younger voters between the ages of 18-39 and independents. Democrats and Hillary Clinton supporters maintained the same level of support for Obama.

Republicans gained a few points of strength overall, but Obama lost far more than the Democratic brand in the last month. It is only one poll, but honestly I did not expect to see evidence that the FISA shift hurt him among anyone except hard core activists. It turns out hard core activists still support Obama (though they perhaps aren't giving anymore), it's the independents that don't. I thought and still largely think this election is in the bag, though it doesn't really matter what I think, I'm not making decisions for the Obama campaign and his people don't like us hippie bloggers.

Still, I will say that Obama better win this election or else he'll be the most hated Democrat ever.

[wmbwinn]

"Still, I will say that Obama better win this election or else he'll be the most hated Democrat "


So true. If Obama messes up, the Dem Party will never forgive him. Those who are celebrating his race and the newness of having a Black man in this position will really hate him as well. His failure (if he fails) will be catastrophic...

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

"Still, I will say that Obama better win this election or else he'll be the most hated Democrat "


So true. If Obama messes up, the Dem Party will never forgive him. Those who are celebrating his race and the newness of having a Black man in this position will really hate him as well. His failure (if he fails) will be catastrophic...

Not that I think this scenario will happen...but I'm perplexed by your assessment of it. For one thing, he has already broken big barriers, and for that reason alone his ticket in the party has been punched. If he loses this year, I'd expect him to be the presumptive nominee in '12. And for another thing, if there is one thing Democrats are used to, it's losing. Consider the stature Al Gore presently enjoys within the party.

I think the guy is in a no-lose situation, myself.

[dude1394]

Democrats haven't been very kind to their losing candidates.

[Murphy3]

I've always been a fence post rider.. always kinda voted on the candidate whose policies I liked the best...
With that being said, the more I hear the hard core liberals speak, the more and more embarrassed I am to have ever voted Democrat. There's nothing more embarrassing than a hard core liberal.

[dude1394]

I just have to apologize again.

[Dude1394 has just voted for Jimmy Carter]
Dude: All right, all right, I apologize.
American People : You're really sorry.
Dude: I'm really really sorry, I apologize unreservedly.
American People : You take it back.
Dude: I do, I offer a complete and utter retraction. The imputation was totally without basis in fact, and was in no way fair comment, and was motivated purely by malice, and I deeply regret any distress that my vote may have caused you, or your family, and I hereby undertake not to repeat any such stupid vote at any time in the future.
American People: OK.

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Not that I think this scenario will happen...but I'm perplexed by your assessment of it. For one thing, he has already broken big barriers, and for that reason alone his ticket in the party has been punched. If he loses this year, I'd expect him to be the presumptive nominee in '12. And for another thing, if there is one thing Democrats are used to, it's losing. Consider the stature Al Gore presently enjoys within the party.

I think the guy is in a no-lose situation, myself.

I cannot recall any losing candidate who ever ran again successfully. Gore had the ability to run again because he technically won the popular vote (just lost the race based on the way the Constitution calls for electing a president, which method was put in place to give small states a larger say).

The Dems are supposed to win this and sweep Congress. Any different outcome will be a total defeat and embarrassment.

The person whose face is attached to such a defeat will never raise again...

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

I've always been a fence post rider.. always kinda voted on the candidate whose policies I liked the best...
With that being said, the more I hear the hard core liberals speak, the more and more embarrassed I am to have ever voted Democrat. There's nothing more embarrassing than a hard core liberal.

amen, Murphy. I don't like McCain. But, I sure can't stand someone left of him.

[Janett_Reno]

Obama and Hillary broke barriers like never before. A black man and a woman. They were number one and number two and i don't see anything less than number one spot for Obama when they count the votes.

Go look at how many votes they got. It was not one republican that got near as many voites as Hillary got or Obama. Wasn't even close. Republicans did not like the choices and they don't now. Look at alot of republican states turning to blue or a tie now. Who ever thought alot of the southern states would come into play for blue states?

Want the same, vote McSame. Want change, vote Obama. I feel a change comming. Keep on keeping on Obama.

[mcsluggo]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

I cannot recall any losing candidate who ever ran again successfully. Gore had the ability to run again because he technically won the popular vote (just lost the race based on the way the Constitution calls for electing a president, which method was put in place to give small states a larger say).

The Dems are supposed to win this and sweep Congress. Any different outcome will be a total defeat and embarrassment.

The person whose face is attached to such a defeat will never raise again...

Richard Nixon?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

Richard Nixon?

Don't forget to add John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, James Monroe, Andrew Jackson, William Henry Harrison and Grover Cleveland to the list of people who ran for president, lost, then ran again and won (12.5% of all US Presidents, to be exact...)


According to history, there's no reason to write-off Al Gore as a possible future president...

[wmbwinn]

I was a child when Nixon happened. That is why I could not remember it happening.

[wmbwinn]

Obama Flip-Flops Leave the Race Tied

Wednesday, July 16, 2008 5:36 PM

By: Dick Morris & Eileen McGann Article Font Size




After almost six weeks of a constant Obama lead, generally in the five to seven-point range, Scott Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll records two consecutive days of a tie race (July 12-13) and a one-point Obama lead on July 14. What happened to the Democrat’s lead?


Part of the slippage is Obama’s fault and part is McCain’s gain.


Obama has carried flip-flopping to new heights. In the space of a month and a half, this candidate — who we don’t really yet know very well — reversed or sharply modified his positions on at least nine key issues:



After vowing to eschew private fundraising and take public financing, he has now refused public money.



Once he threatened to filibuster a bill to protect telephone companies from liability for their cooperation with national security wiretaps; now he has voted for the legislation.



Turning his back on a lifetime of support for gun control, he now recognizes a Second Amendment right to bear arms in the wake of the Supreme Court decision.



Formerly, he told the Israeli lobby that he favored an undivided Jerusalem. Now he says he didn’t mean it.



From a 100 percent pro-choice position, he now has migrated to expressing doubts about allowing partial-birth abortions.



For the first time, he now speaks highly of using church-based institutions to deliver public services to the poor.



Having based his entire campaign on withdrawal from Iraq, he now pledges to consult with the military first.



During the primary, he backed merit pay for teachers — but before the union a few weeks ago, he opposed it.



After specifically saying in the primaries that he disagreed with Sen. Hillary Clinton’s proposal to impose Social Security taxes on income over $200,000 and wanted to tax all income, he has now adopted the Clinton position.


Obama’s breathtaking flips and flops are materially different from McCain’s. While McCain had opposed offshore oil drilling and now supports it, the facts have obviously changed. Obama’s shifts have nothing to do with altered circumstances, just a change in the political calendar.


As a candidate who was nominated to be a different kind of politician, Obama has set the bar pretty high. And, with his flipping and flopping, he is falling short, to the disillusionment of his more naïve supporters. One wag even called him the "black Bill Clinton," a turnaround of the "first black president" moniker that had been pinned on Bill.


Meanwhile, McCain and the Republicans have finally found an issue, oil drilling, exposing how the Democrats oppose drilling virtually anywhere that there might be recoverable oil. Not in Alaska. Not offshore. Not in shale deposits in the West.


The Democratic claim that we "cannot drill our way out of the crisis in gas prices" begs the question of whether, had we drilled five years ago, we would be a lot less dependent on foreign market fluctuations.


The truth is that the Democrats put the need to mitigate climate change ahead of the imperative of holding down gasoline prices at the pump. If there was ever a fault line between elitist and populist approaches to a problem, this is it. In fact, liberals basically don’t see much wrong with $5 gas. Many have been urging a tax to achieve precisely this level, just like Europe has done for decades.


Obama said that he was unhappy that there was not a period of "gradual adjustment" to the high prices, but seems to shed few tears over the current levels. After all, if your imperative is climate change, a high gas price is worth 10 times a ratified Kyoto treaty in bringing about change.


Republicans can drive a truck through the gap between this elite opinion and the need for ordinary people to afford the journey to work in the morning. And, with a 16-state media buy, the Republican Party and the McCain campaign are doing precisely that.


If Obama softens his aversion to drilling, it may be the final straw for some of his liberal supporters. Where would they go?


Nader is still a possibility. But McCain can attract liberal votes. He doesn’t need to bleed Obama only from the right. His own stands against drilling in Alaska and torture of terror suspects and for immigration reform make him suspect on the right, but quite acceptable to the left. If moderate liberals are disgusted by Obama’s obvious attempts at chicanery and repositioning, they might just cross the aisle.

© 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

http://www.newsmax.com/morris/Obama_...16/113485.html

---------------------------------

So much for Obama's lead...

His flip flop reminds me of Avery Johnson changing his 67 win starting line up to play the GS Warriors...

[chumdawg]

Geez, where to start?

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

Obama Flip-Flops Leave the Race Tied

By: Dick Morris & Eileen McGann

This is as good a place as any. Morris is a mercenary nonpareil. So let's go into this bearing in mind the source.

this candidate — who we don’t really yet know very well —

Anyone who doesn't yet know him very well is, I would suggest, taking an unadvisable tack by burying his head in the sand for a good year or so coming up to an election.

What Dick Morris means is: "We don't really yet have any goods on him. We don't really yet know how what kind of tactics against him will play well with the voters."

Trust me, when Dick Morris says he doesn't yet know somebody, that's what he means.

Turning his back on a lifetime of support for gun control, he now recognizes a Second Amendment right to bear arms in the wake of the Supreme Court decision.

I'll point this one directly at you, winn. Do you see "gun control" and "the right to bear arms" as inherently opposite measures? I know that you don't, based on the ideas you have expressed in this forum. I haven't heard you advocate the idea that every American ought to have the right to own whatever sort of firearm he desires, and to wield it whatever he wants to. What does "gun control" mean? Surely it encompasses things like licensing concealed handgun owners and restricting the places in which said licensed folk can carry their guns.

But let's look further at this. Morris says that Obama "turned his back on a lifetime of support for gun control" in that he now "recognizes" a Supreme Court decision. Couple of problems with this.

At the start of the article, Morris said that we don't yet know Obama very well. But here he claims to know about a "lifetime" of Obama's views on an issue. The two don't reconcile.

But more importantly, consider this, from further down the article:

Obama’s breathtaking flips and flops are materially different from McCain’s. While McCain had opposed offshore oil drilling and now supports it, the facts have obviously changed.

I would consider a Supreme Court decision to be among the very ultimate in "facts" that "obviously have changed." What is Morris saying, that he expects Obama to act as if the Supreme Court of the United States has no bearing? Presidents don't override the Supreme Court, unless you are Andrew Jackson or Dick Morris, evidently.

From a 100 percent pro-choice position, he now has migrated to expressing doubts about allowing partial-birth abortions.

Once again, we have the issue of how well Morris thinks he "really knows" Obama. Here he claims to know him well enough to state that Obama was "100 percent pro-choice" to the extent that he favored partial-birth abortions.

Morris: "100 percent" necessarily implies that you know the candidate very well. And in this case, your credibility is next to nil. Nobody likes partial-birth abortions.

For the first time, he now speaks highly of using church-based institutions to deliver public services to the poor.

Here we go again! Remember, Morris's thesis here is that this is a flip-flop for Obama. This would imply that Morris knows that Obama has never spoken highly before of using church-based institutions to help the poor. How would Morris know that, if he doesn't "really yet know" the man?

Why should this be territory that Obama cannot claim? Morris is reaching horribly here. He is claiming that if Obama never said it just so, he never believed it. And he is taking it one step further by implying that Obama believed the opposite!

Having based his entire campaign on withdrawal from Iraq, he now pledges to consult with the military first.

Desiring withdrawal from Iraq and consulting with the military first are certainly not mutually exclusive.

As a candidate who was nominated to be a different kind of politician, Obama has set the bar pretty high. And, with his flipping and flopping, he is falling short, to the disillusionment of his more naïve supporters.

This quote pretty much says it all. To Morris, a candidate who doesn't retrench himself from time to time is a "different kind of politician," which is true and Morris knows that. People who believe that a candidate can stick to whatever he started with are "naive," which is true and Morris knows that.

Morris knows the game as well as anyone. The problem is that he is trying to use the game to aid McCain over Obama, but his efforts are as see-through as a plain glass window.

One wag even called him the "black Bill Clinton," a turnaround of the "first black president" moniker that had been pinned on Bill.

This is just Morris trying to defend his turf. He created the political persona of Bill Clinton. He hates it when someone else uses his methods even better than he did.

Republicans can drive a truck through the gap between this elite opinion and the need for ordinary people to afford the journey to work in the morning. And, with a 16-state media buy, the Republican Party and the McCain campaign are doing precisely that.

That's true, as Morris sagely knows. The only question is how well they will do it.

If Obama softens his aversion to drilling, it may be the final straw for some of his liberal supporters. Where would they go?

Where would they go? To McCain? Gimme a break.

So much for Obama's lead...

I'm sure you know that the polling at this stage is next to meaningless.

[wmbwinn]

nice post, Chum. Welcome back to the political pages.

I dropped that in there based on the strength of the Rasmusen polls showing that Obama's lead is non existent now.

This whole thread started with polls that are too early to matter. Most say that the polls take on meaning after Labor Day. I don't know if I really believe that. I find all the polls over time interesting.

It was intriguing to watch Rudy lose the Republican race without a fight after his initial polling advantages. It was disturbing to watch Huckabee and McCain team up to dump Romney out of the race. It was a freak show to watch what Ron Paul did on the internet. It was fascinating to watch the Hillary/Obama feud and how it played out all the way to the end. So, I find all the polling fascinating.

At this point, McCain and Obama are even.

------------------------

As to the charges of the Right Pundit detailed in the article, I respect your defense of Obama.

Certainly, the Supreme Court decision is a "change of the facts on the ground". We will have to see how Obama actually intends to move on guns.
I'm not sure why you jumped into the details of what gun control means.
I think we can assume Obama supported the gun control measures of Chicago and its suburbs since that is the very state Obama is the Senator. So, I think we have some idea what Obama thought gun control meant before the Supreme Court told him what gun control really meant.

As to the flip/flop on Iraq: Heck, I'm glad to see him flip/flop on this issue. He was wrong and he has admitted that he was wrong and he has stated that the "facts on the ground" are going to drive how fast and in what manner we can scale down our "combat forces" while leaving our "support forces". I figure that Obama is going to win and so I am glad to see him flip/flop to positions that are more like mine.
In reality, Obama did not flip/flop on the Iraq question. A careful reading of his prior comments 6-9 months ago showed the exact same position he is called to defend now. It is just that only nerds like me that digest every word noticed back then that Obama was not really the "anti war candidate" that most of America thought he was. Obama did not really change. He just got caught explaining how he really thinks.

I don't have a clue what Obama's previous position of partial birth abortion was. Don't really care. If he is opposed to it, then that is good.

Anyway, I liked your post. And, I posted my article primarily based on the simple finding that Obama has lost his lead and probably lost it due to the PERCEPTION of dropping all the values that the earlier primary voters chose him for.

[Janett_Reno]

ARKANSAS (Rasmussen): McCain - 47%, Obama - 37%.
CALIFORNIA (Field): Obama - 54%, McCain - 30%.
NEVADA (Rasmussen): Obama - 42%, McCain - 40%.
NEW JERSEY (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 47%, McCain - 38%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): McCain - 45%, Obama - 42%.
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 55%, McCain - 39%.
KANSAS (Rasmussen): McCain - 52%, Obama - 32%.
OREGON (Rasmussen): Obama - 46%, McCain - 37%
WA - Obama (D) 55%, McCain (R) 39%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

VA, NV, OH are in play and use to be republican and even the Carolina's. Mt use to be republican and even AZ is in play, the state where McSame is from.

Democrat Barack Obama has a 7-point lead on Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race, and holds a small edge on the crucial question of who would best manage the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%.

This next article was on the 16th.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator (see methodology below) shows Barack Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while John McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, Obama leads 293-227. On Monday, July 14, South Dakota shifted from "Likely GOP" to "Leans GOP". On Wednesday, July 16, Kansas shifted from "Likely GOP" to "Safe GOP".

Several southern republican states are in play also. Obama has positioned himself right where he needs to be.

[dude1394]

Weren't you the one saying clinton had it in the bag??

[Janett_Reno]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Weren't you the one saying clinton had it in the bag??

I did but also stated i was very happy with Obama as well just as you stated Rudy had it in the bag and then switched to Fred Thompson. It is early and i will enjoy the debates between these two. I think Obama is doing something many Democrats have not done. Going into red states and making them swing states. McSame and his followers never thought they was going to have to spend lots of money in NV, MT, IN, NC, SC, MS, GA, AK, AZ, VA, WV and ND. Even LA and Ark but i do feel McCain will win those.

This means it will be many more in play than just OH, FL and PA. I like the fact Obama has set himself up in alot of republican states and ahead now. I know it's along way's off but i also feel you listen to McCain's message vs Obama, many more will come to Obama. Do not forget dude, McCain could not stand W and they threatned to kick him out of the republican party and i think that was in 2000 or 2001 as him and W and W's adm couldn't get along with McCain. I think people will ask why has the man in the middle flopped and desires everything W and Cheney wants and does. Now he is an extension to them and long ago, not many thought you could get McCain to switch his beliefs but he has turned out to be one of the biggest flip floppers it has ever been.

I still do think OH and FL is very important and both now are up for grabs but if Obama starts sweeping red states, McCain will have to go into some blue states and win. Can he? I like Obama's strat and where he stands now.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

I did but also stated i was very happy with Obama as well just as you stated Rudy had it in the bag and then switched to Fred Thompson..

Get your facts straight.

[Janett_Reno]

This is interesting.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel..._b_113248.html

This is why these toss up states are important if both guys get the states they are suppose and the leaners. The prob with McCain, is some of his leaners, Obama is close enough to overtake and most leaners for Obama, McCain doesn't have much of a shot at, or atleast at this point.

These lean for McCain....

Lean McCain: Alaska, Florida, Montana, Missouri, North Carolina (59 EVs).

Other day Obama was up by 2 points or so in Montana but leaning McCain because it has always been a republican state. FL, again this is just to close to call and if McCain is ahead it is less then 5 points. NC and MO Obama has a shot. So these are suppose to be leaners for McCain in which Obama can beat him in some of these and maybe a lil ahead in one or two now.

Safe McCain: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska (at large + 3rd congressional district), Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming.

They clain LA is in play but i don't think Obama can win in LA but maybe i might be wrong. MS, is very interesting and last i saw it was less than 10 points and they say Obama will work it hard and they expect to win it. I think they could make MS a possible swing state and is counted on many sites as one now but it is suppose to be safe republican but when the election is here remember this state i am mentioning. He is in striking didtance in the Caarolinas and in WV. These are McCains safe states.

Likely McCain: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Nebraska (1st and 2nd congressional districts), North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas.

I feel McCain will win his own home state but i know it is in striking distance but i just don't see McCain losing AZ. GA, they say this is getting interesting and like MS, they say Obama has a plan for these two and they think they can make these red ones blue. With Bayh, Obama wins IN but i am not sure who his vp will be and with Crisp, McCain should take FL. SD is in play. Tx is interesting and yes should go red but what if latinos come out big time and if all the afrian americans that left LA and moved into TX, Houston and many places in TX, come out in record numbers? I would be totally shocked if Obama won TX but it is possible i guess.

I won't go into the toss ups as you can see them on the page and they are toss ups. Completely to close.

Lean Obama: Iowa, Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Maybe Iowa McCain has a shot but i don't see him winning any of the others and i doubt Iowa.

Likely Obama: Delaware, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, Washington.

Maybe McCain has a shot in ME but the polls just look like Obama is very strong there now. The others are safe.

Safe Obama: California, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

No way McCain even gets close to one of these states. ME is Obama 49-41 now, so McCain does have a shot here.

Obama has positioned himself good and i feel he has went into red states and it is going to pay huge dividends and he has painted a good picture if you read between the lines of democrats, republicans and neoconservative. The reupblicans don't have much of a choice unless they go with Barr or Obama or keep their party into the neoconservative movement while kicking out more republicans.

[Janett_Reno]

Democrats Make Gains in Voter Registration

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...istration.html

Rhodes Cook analyzes new voter registration data in the 29 states where party affiliation is on record and finds that since 2004 the number of registered Democrats has grown by nearly 700,000 while the total of registered Republicans has fallen by nearly 1 million.

In addition, the "overall trend -- Democrats up, Republicans down -- is also mirrored in many of the states that already have been identified as battlegrounds for 2008. And with only a comparative handful of votes needed to swing key states such as Iowa and Nevada the Democrats' way, the latest registration numbers can only fuel the party's considerable optimism."


Obama Fundraising Surges

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...ng_surges.html

"After locking up his party's presidential nomination, Barack Obama's fundraising operation came roaring back to life in June, generating more than a million dollars on five days, including a whopping $25 million that came in on the last day of the month," according to Politico.

"His one-day haul represents nearly half of his monthly total and more than Republican rival John McCain generated for the entire month. During the month, McCain did not have a single day in which he raised a million dollars."

ALASKA (Research 2000): McCain - 51%, Obama - 41%.
MAINE (Rasmussen): Obama - 46%, McCain - 36%.
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): McCain - 44%, Obama - 44%

[DirkFTW]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

"After locking up his party's presidential nomination, Barack Obama's fundraising operation came roaring back to life in June, generating more than a million dollars on five days, including a whopping $25 million that came in on the last day of the month," according to Politico.

Turns out it was just an accounting issue.

Turns out, Obama raised nearly $4 million on June 30th, a healthy amount certainly. But the $21 million from the un-itemized small donors, which are those who are not named because they haven’t given more than $200, came in throughout the month and not on a single day. The FEC is adding an explanatory note to avoid such confusion in the future, said FEC spokesman Bob Biersback.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11905.html

[dude1394]

Uh oh....
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election

Election 2008: Ohio Presidential Election
McCain Opens Modest Lead in Ohio
Tuesday, July 22, 2008

John McCain has opened a modest lead over Barack Obama in the key swing state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Buckeye State shows McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month and the month before McCain held a insignificant one-point lead over Obama.

Seven percent (7%) of voters say they’d prefer a third party candidate over either McCain or Obama and another 7% remain undecided.

When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 52% to 42%.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 57%, little changed from a month ago. Obama gets favorable marks from 50% of the state’s voters, down three points from June but up three points since May.

Keep talking dude.

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Uh oh....
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election



Keep talking dude.

Now, if McCain takes Michigan, we have a horse race...
That would even the current electoral college vote to being nearly precisely an even race...

[dude1394]

I don't believe that BO will take florida either. He's too scary..Those guys look at that dude and see a snake-oil salesman.

[Janett_Reno]

ALASKA (Rasmussen): McCain - 45%, Obama - 41%. This is a huge republican state but Stevens has been in so much trouble alot of the republicans are not trusting republicans. You can see this in Obama should be atleast 20 points or 30 points down in Alaska. 4%, Obama has actually got a shot at pulling a huge upset in this state.


GEORGIA (Rasmussen): McCain - 48%, Obama - 39%. Again, this is a big republcain state and they say they have a plan here to try to paint this blue. He is within 9% and it will be tough but he is within 9 here in another big time red state.


MICHIGAN (Detroit News/EPIC-MRA): Obama - 43%, McCain - 41%, Barr/Nader/Other - 5%. I feel this state is very important and this would be one to hurt the democrats i feel and McCain is within 2%. With Romney, maybe McCain takes Mich. The only bad thing with a McCain/Romney, they don't like each other or agree on much but they may try the ticket and it could pull Mich red. McCain is running strong here.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama - 46%, McCain - 43%. Close call here but i feel this state will be painted blue in the end.


NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas-R): McCain - 43%, Obama - 40%. This is Michigan for the republicans. They just can't lose this state, like the democrats shouldn't lose Mich. Obama is within 3% and this is close now.

OHIO (PPP-D): Obama - 48%, McCain - 40%. One poll shows Obama up 8% here and another shows McCain up 10%. This is a very important state and with all Obama is doing and running strong at, he could really make it hard on the republicans if he wins Ohio or FL. This means he must hold PA. They say with Romney, they need to win it thru Mich, Ind, OH, PA and NH. This is where a major battle is starting to play out at. This sounds like, well just grab Roment and do it. Well it is harder than just that. Then the republicans must explain, mormon again, why McCain and Romney disagree on everything and as where McCain hasn't a clue on economics, Romney does. He is a good economic man. All sounds good but here comes Obama with Bayh or Hillary. Oh no, these are the same states that Hillary and Bayh are huge in. Ind, Mich, Oh, PA, NH and with Hillary now TN starts bumping up and KY closer for Obama. Ark then comes into play. Flip side. Some western republican states that are going to vote for Obama, with Hillary, they may say no no. Bayh is a very safe pick but Hillary has a huge following. Bill Richardson's name has been very quiet and yes he pulls FL maybe and NM but i am not so sure how much Bill does. They cliam Joe Biden is really liked but i am not so sure how many states that pick helps. That leaves Hagel and that would be like McCain with Liberman. Who knows what happens if they did that. I feel like a Rudy pick will sink McCain fast and Jindal, i know most republicans love him and want him but i just don't see how he helps that much. Yes he is young but what else?

More out today...

CO - Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 47%

FL - McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 45%

OH - McCain (R) 52%, Obama (D) 42%(Rass poll)

The OH poll looks good for McCain today. McCain is burning that money now also as he churns out those ads and Obama hasn't been spending lately but taking in alot. He will come out wth his big guns and money more so in the 4th quarter.

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by dude1394

I don't believe that BO will take florida either. He's too scary..Those guys look at that dude and see a snake-oil salesman.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...college_update

Rasmusen already shows Florida in the Republican pocket.

It shows Ohio as a toss up right now although the current polls show Ohio voting Republican.

Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, and Colorado are must wins for the Republicans to stand a chance. And, naturally, they have to hold the ones they have right now.

New Mexico is always split 50/50 with the winner winning by less than 1 percentage point. So, it is expectedly in play and undecided.

[wmbwinn]

Agree, Janet. The race will come down to a few pivotal states just like in the Bush/Gore race...

[Janett_Reno]

I need to mention this also with Hillary. Now Obama wins FL and probably OH. Hillary would landslide PA and pick up ARK. If McCain picks Roms this week then yes i feel Obama will pick Hillary to counter. If you want the truth, that is the best pick for each of them, the strongest. Both McCain and Obama will take heat and flack for those two picks but that will put both parties in a head banging great run off in these big swing states.

With OH news, Hillary just shot up in the list of vp pretty fast. McCain goes with Jindal, then Obama counters with Bayh. McCain with Crisp and no i don't think that is good for them but then Obama might pick a Biden, not sure.

[wmbwinn]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

I need to mention this also with Hillary. Now Obama wins FL and probably OH. Hillary would landslide PA and pick up ARK. If McCain picks Roms this week then yes i feel Obama will pick Hillary to counter. If you want the truth, that is the best pick for each of them, the strongest. Both McCain and Obama will take heat and flack for those two picks but that will put both parties in a head banging great run off in these big swing states.

With OH news, Hillary just shot up in the list of vp pretty fast. McCain goes with Jindal, then Obama counters with Bayh. McCain with Crisp and no i don't think that is good for them but then Obama might pick a Biden, not sure.

If Obama can take Florida and Ohio, then nothing else will matter. No way can McCain win if he loses both of those states. McCain probably has to win both to have a chance.
McCain is leading in both currently. Bush took both in both election cycles he won.