Official Political Poll Thread

[Dooby]

Thread for Polls, tracking polls and the ol' Horse race for the Presidential Election:

[Dooby]

Bush pulls ahead.

Bush 1 point back.

[u2sarajevo]

[Dooby]

Bush pulls up 2 in Florida.

Ditto.

[madape]

The swift boat ads are huring. THe convention is coming up. Momentum is swinging. It's starting to smell like a landslide.

[Dooby]

First, zero chance of a landslide.

Second, it isn't just the swfit boats; Bush's approval rating is slowly creeping up. The swift boat mess shouldn't affect that.

[Drbio]

I doubt we see anything close to a landslide, but I can certeainly see Bush building up to a comfortable lead. Also, the swifties have made an impact in many ways. First of all, they are perceived by most as extremely credible. Secondly, they are causing Kerry to melt down right before our very eyes.

[Lvubun1]

First of all, they are perceived by most as extremely credible.

15% is most?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

Show me any credible poll that has then above 30% and i'll walk around a week with a Bush/Cheney '04 stick on my forehead.

[u2sarajevo]

Originally posted by: Lvubun115% is most?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

Show me any credible poll that has then above 30% and i'll walk around a week with a Bush/Cheney '04 stick on my forehead.

Found here...

According to a poll taken by the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Center, more than half the people surveyed had seen or heard about the ad, and about half of independent voters found the ad to be believable.

PM me your address, and I will send you the bumper sticker. But I want pictures.

[jacktruth]

Polling Report.com

[Dooby]

Gallup: Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 4 | Bush 50, Kerry 47

FOX News: Kerry 44, Bush 43, Nader 3 | Kerry 45, Bush 44 | Bush JA @ 51%

[kg_veteran]

Originally posted by: u2sarajevo
PM me your address, and I will send you the bumper sticker. But I want pictures.

That's hilarious. I'll pay you for copies, U2.

[Dooby]

NBC/WSJ: Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 3

Any illusions that Bush is not in front leading up to the convention should be laid to rest.

[Dooby]

The hits just keep on coming:


Bush up in Battleground states Missouri, Wisconsin and Ohio

Pennsylvania, too.

A little commentary:

KERRY WEAKENING AHEAD OF RNC: Four new major polls came out yesterday all showing a small lead for President Bush, except for the FOX News poll which has Kerry ahead one point among likely voters. (So much for the liberal gripes you hear about FOX's poll favoring the GOP.)

The poll dump yesterday seems to confirm the damage done to the Kerry campaign from the swift boat/Vietnam blowup over the last two weeks, as the following chart of our RCP 3-Way average indicates:



Even more troubling for the Kerry campaign, however, are the state polls of registered voters done by the decidedly not conservative Los Angeles Times that show Kerry trailing in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Missouri. It's not good news for Democrats when the front page of the Los Angeles Times runs a headline story, "Key Midwest Swing States Are Leaning Toward Bush."

Compounding the bad news for Kerry from the LA Times polls, a new IssuesPA/Pew poll of 861 likely voters in Pennsylvania shows President Bush ahead 45%-44%.

The concern for the Kerry campaign is these new polls showing the President ahead both nationally and in critical battleground states are occurring before next week's GOP convention in New York.

As Fred Barnes astutely pointed out on FNC's Special Report with Brit Hume last night, Kerry's call for weekly issue debates is a de facto admission by their campaign that they don't like the dynamic of the race as it currently exists.

The next three weeks will be crucial for the Kerry campaign. To use a sports analogy: they're no longer playing preseason games against Dean, Gephardt, Kucinich and Wesley Clark. Kerry is in the Superbowl now, and the reigning champs are staring to pound the ball up the field with a good deal of success.

Kerry and the Democrats are in a much more precarious position than the recently adopted Cook/Sabato/Broder conventional wisdom suggests. Senator Kerry must keep this race close over the course of the next few weeks, because if President Bush is able to build on his new found lead, Kerry's chances in November will be seriously diminished.

[dude1394]

Here's a poll for you. This is the election futures market, people voting with their own bucks. 0.50 is even money. Looks like a little momentum developing.



Also this site is kind of funny. It's showing the markets for all of the pretenders in the dem party during the primaries. Kinda funny to see them fall-off the shelf as they were dismissed.

pretenders

[dude1394]

Originally posted by: dude1394
Here's a poll for you. This is the election futures market, people voting with their own bucks. 0.50 is even money. Looks like a little momentum developing.



Also this site is kind of funny. It's showing the markets for all of the pretenders in the dem party during the primaries. Kinda funny to see them fall-off the shelf as they were dismissed.

pretenders

this site just keeps getting better. Here is the graph for the makeup of the congress this year. If this stuff holds true the dems just might commit hari-kari or something.



And here is the futures on the 'pubs gaining in the senate. Oh joy, rapture. What a great 4 years it would be to not have to see a dem filibuster.

[Dooby]

Bush up 19 in Texas.

Bush up 21 in Texas.

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-shocked.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: Dooby
Bush up 19 in Texas.

Bush up 21 in Texas.

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-shocked.gif[/img]

No surprise here. Same thing for Kerry in Massachusetts probably.

[Dooby]

Originally posted by: Drbio

No surprise here. Same thing for Kerry in Massachusetts probably.

Kerry up 29 in Massachusetts.

Kerry up 26 in Mass.

[LRB]

Wonder how much Kerry is up in Iran and North Korea?

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: LRB
Wonder how much Kerry is up in Iran and North Korea?

Kerry up 87% in Iran, Kerry up 121% in North Korea

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif[/img]

[LRB]

I also heard that Kerry was up 100% to 0% among Al Queda members. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif[/img]

[dude1394]

Uh OH!!!! Tommmmmmiiiiiiiieeeeeeee..... You in trouble now..

August 31, 2004
New Poll: Thune 50%, Daschle 48%

From The Hotline:

A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll, conducted 8/24-26 for the NRSC, surveyed 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.4% (NRSC release, 8/31). Tested: Sen. Tom Daschle (D) and '02 GOP nominee John Thune.

General Election Matchup

Thune 50% 62% Fav/29% Unfav
Daschle 48% 61% Fav/35% Unfav
Don't Know/Other 2%

Pollster Glen Bolger: "In the nearly two months since he has gone on the air, Thune has closed the gap, even in the midst of a challenging national political climate. John Thune's message of independence and standing up for [SD] values has reminded voters why they like him, and has translated into a strong showing on the ballot test" (release, 8/31).

thune daschle

Posted by Jon Lauck on August 31, 2004 | Permalink [/quote]

[Drbio]

Daschle is a turd of the highest order.

[Mavdog]

Daschel's in a tight race, he'll pull it out IMO.
From the Rapid City newspaper. 4.9% MOE is pretty large, the sample was pretty small:

A Republican-conducted poll of 400 likely voters released Thursday put Republican Thune at 45 percent, Democrat Daschle at 48.3 percent and 6.8 percent undecided. The 3.3 percent gap between the two was within the poll's 4.9 percent margin of error.

[Dooby]

I heard from a friend in NY this week that the Bush campaign expects to be up high single digits after convention.

[Dooby]

Rasmussen has Bush up 4 through the first 2 night of the convention (does not include last night).

[Dooby]

Rasmussen tracking poll still has Bush up 4, which probably means up 6 to 7 by early next week. As non-convention numbers drop out (a process I have no desire to explain), but bigger news is job approval up to 54% and Bush prefered on economics 49% to 45%.

Who is a Better Leader?.....................Bush 49....Kerry 38
Trust on Nat'l Defense?......................Bush 52....Kerry 42
Trust to Manage Economy?.................Bush 49....Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror.................US 50....Terrorists 26
How is Bush handling Iraq..................Ex/Good 46....Poor 41
How is Bush handling Econ.................Ex/Good 43....Poor 39

[kg_veteran]

W E B E X C L U S I V E
Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead
TIME Poll: Among likely voters, 52% would vote for President George Bush, while 41% would vote for John Kerry and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader



Friday, Sep. 03, 2004
New York: For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. Poll results are available on TIME.com and will appear in the upcoming issue of TIME magazine, on newsstands Monday, Sept. 6.

Most important issues: When asked what they consider are the most important issues, 25% of registered voters cited the economy as the top issue, followed by 24% who cited the war on terrorism as the top issue. The situation in Iraq was rated the top issue by 17% of registered voters, moral values issues such as gay marriage and abortion were the top issue for 16% of respondents, and health care was the most important issue for 11% of respondents.

Bush vs. Kerry:
The economy: 47% trust President Bush more to handle the economy, while 45% trust Kerry.
Health care: 48% trust Senator Kerry to handle health care issues, while 42% trust Bush.
Iraq: 53% trust Bush to handle the situation in Iraq, while 41% trust Kerry.
Terrorism: 57% trust Bush to handle the war on terrorism, while 36% trust Kerry.
Understanding the needs of people: 47% said they trust Kerry to understand the needs of people like themselves, while 44% trusted Bush to understand their needs.
Providing strong leadership: 56% said they trust Bush to provide strong leadership in difficult times, while 37% said they trust Kerry to provide leadership in difficult times.
Tax policy: 49% trust Bush to handle tax policy, while 40% trust Kerry.
Commanding the Armed Forces: 54% said they trust Bush to be commander-in-chief of the armed forces, while 39% said they trust Kerry.

Bush on the Issues:
Iraq: Half (50%) of those surveyed approve of the way President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, while 46% disapprove. In last week’s TIME poll, 48% approved of the way Bush was handling the situation in Iraq and 48% disapproved.
Terrorism: Almost two thirds (59%) said they approve of how President Bush is handling the war on terrorism, while 38% disapprove. Last week’s TIME poll found 55% approved of Bush’s handling of the war on terrorism, while 40% disapproved.
The Economy: Survey respondents were split on the President’s handling of the economy. Almost half (48%) said the approved of Bush’s handling of the economy, while 48% said the disapproved.

Other results include:
Was U.S. Right Going to War with Iraq? Over half of those surveyed (52%) think the U.S. was right in going to war with Iraq, while 41% think the U.S. was wrong to go to war.

Have the United States’ actions in Iraq made the world safer? Almost half (45%) think the United States’ actions in Iraq have made the world safer, while 45% think the world is more dangerous. In a similar TIME poll taken Aug. 3 – 5, over half (52%) said the world was more dangerous, and 38% said the world was safer.

# # #

Methodology: The TIME Poll was conducted August 31 – September 2 by telephone among a random sample of 1,316 adults, including 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 3% points, and +/- 4% points for likely voters. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs conducted the poll, and more complete results are attached.

[chumdawg]

Click here to see the AOL straw poll, with close to 240,000 votes already nationwide.

But don't click if you don't want to see a lot of red!

[dude1394]

DAAMMMNNN.... Wonder what the dem spin is going to be on this bounce. Last I heard was that there was so few people undecided that there was no way that a bounce could occur. Well since there were so many undecideds, these must be democrats voting for bush.

[dude1394]

Not "exactly" a poll. But sort of. Man that bush hit a homerun that is still traveling.

From barnes

A feared outcome for the Republican convention was that it would stop the pro-Bush momentum created by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. That didn't happen. Instead, the speeches by Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Zell Miller, Cheney, and Bush built on that momentum. Whose speech got the more favorable reaction? Bush's. Really. At 17 focus groups organized by Democratic consultant Bob Beckel in battleground states, voters were mesmerized by Bush, especially when he talked about the war on terror. At an MSNBC focus group in Cincinnati run by pollster Frank Luntz, 13 of 21 undecided voters jumped to Bush after hearing his speech.

[LRB]

Originally posted by: chumdawg
Click here to see the AOL straw poll, with close to 240,000 votes already nationwide.

But don't click if you don't want to see a lot of red!

LOL. I might seriously injure myself laughing if Kerry were to lose every state in the union as this poll suggest. That's just too funny.

[dude1394]

polipundit

Dispirited Democrats

Here's how Democrats are reacting to the RNC:

On Monday night, the Republicans were having their party, so I had mine. I gathered friends -- New Yorkers, San Franciscans and one stray Angelino -- for cocktails, snacks and a chance to observe the political system from the relative safety of a Manhattan living room. We put boring speeches on mute, but jacked up the sound when John McCain and Rudy Giuliani took the stage.

A typical conversation went like this:

Guest A: Ohmygod. Bush screwed McCain so hard in the 2000 primary, why is he kissing Bush's butt?

Guest B: Pass the vodka.

Guest A: I mean George W. all but called him an insane Vietnam vet.

Guest B: Pass the vodka.

Guest A: And you know McCain is personal friends with Kerry.

Guest B to Guest C: Can you pass the vodka? This is giving me a headache.

The guests seem stunned by, but impressed with, the ability of the Bush campaign to take people who have never shown much personal or ideological affinity for President Bush (and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would fall among these) and turn them into Zombies-for-Bush.

Near the end of the night's broadcast, I took a poll. How many people thought Kerry was going to win?

The room contained liberal and Democratic voters of different races, national origins, incomes, professions and generations. Not a single solitary one raised a hand.

[Dooby]

Holy crap! Newsweek, too, has an 11 point gap.

BTW, what they aren't saying is that no incumbant with a lead of more than 5 points on Labor Day has ever lost.



"I smile like this whenever we are kicking your ass!"

[dude1394]

Double ouch....Kerry is getting slaughtered out there.

bloodbath

Man check out the rest of the cities.

SurveyUSA: Momentum Shifts to Bush; Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention

VERONA, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 3, 2004--The number of Americans who think George W. Bush will be re-elected in November has suddenly jumped 10 to 20 points in dozens of cities around the country, according to SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted before, during and after the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.

SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is designed to capture "momentum" swings more precisely than preference questions asked of likely voters. Tracking polls released today, 9/3/04, the day after the Republican National Convention ended, show sizeable swings in the public consciousness.

Examples:

-- In New York City, the number of adults who say Bush will win jumped from 39% on 7/22 (the week before the DNC) to 58% today: 19 points up for Bush, 17 points down for Kerry.

-- In Los Angeles, the number who say Bush will win jumped from 38% on 7/22 to 59% today: 21 points up for Bush, 18 points down for Kerry.

-- In Pittsburgh, Bush went from 44% to 64%: 20 points up for Bush, 19 points down for Kerry.

[Mavdog]

That's a very clever nuance.

This isn't a poll of "who will you vote for" but "who do you think will win".

[Dooby]

Originally posted by: Mavdog
That's a very clever nuance.

This isn't a poll of "who will you vote for" but "who do you think will win".

Exactly right, Mavdog. They are trying to make a point, but not a very good one and don't do it in a very good way. But the point is this:

In New York City, Kerry, at the worst, is going to get about 70% of the vote. In LA, Kerry probably gets about 60%. So from glancing at the numbers (am not going to do the real math), about 1/2 of Kerry's supporters think he is going to lose. So Kerry before he can go and chase the undecideds, he has to go reinvigorate his base. Which is a problem, because if your supporters think you are going to lose, they are less likely to contribute, to volunteer, and worse of all-vote.

[dude1394]

Oh Lucy (kerry) you are in trouble now! Gallup weighs in.
nobody likes me kerry

Bush leads Kerry by 7 points
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush widened his lead over John Kerry after a combative Republican National Convention deepened questions about the Democratic candidate's leadership, especially on terrorism. (Related link: Poll results)

As the campaign enters its last eight weeks, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday shows Bush at 52%, Kerry at 45% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 1% among likely voters. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry by 2 percentage points.

Among registered voters, Bush was at 48%, Kerry at 46% and Nader at 4%.

Bush's lead remains within the survey's error margin. By historical standards, the race remains too close to call.

But the New York convention has reshaped views of the political landscape and the candidates in ways helpful to the GOP. Views of whether Bush has the personality and leadership qualities to be president improved by 6 points; those of Kerry declined by 14 points.

And check out THIS choice nugget in the article.

Still, Bush received a modest bounce from his party's convention, while Kerry's standing sagged in the USA TODAY poll after the Democratic convention. The president is driving both sides of the ballot: eight of 10 of his supporters say they are voting for Bush; [b]half of Kerry voters say they are voting against Bush.[b]

That would be most of the posters on this board I think.

[reeds]

Still, Bush received a modest bounce from his party's convention, while Kerry's standing sagged in the USA TODAY poll after the Democratic convention. The president is driving both sides of the ballot: eight of 10 of his supporters say they are voting for Bush; half of Kerry voters say they are voting against Bush.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



That would be most of the posters on this board I think.


You think??Geezzzzzz...isnt most of this board from Texas??come on...I think we all know Bush carries Texas