Nelson gambling on small lineup change

[1timesportsbeatwriter]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c
The crunch time SF is usually either AJ or JHo. That is not small ball, at least not the same kind of small ball as when Fin is the SF. I get your point, it's not like Nellie's all of a sudden using lineups that he's never used before, but it is nonetheless a change to start a consistent 5 guys with a 2 playing the 3. Even when he was starting Delk it was only an occasional thing.

Exactly. Its not like nellie is all of a sudden using lineups he's never used before. I guarantee you, in the fourth quarter when the playoffs come around, and they need points against the Lakers or the TWovles, here are the five on the floor: nash, finley, nowitzki, walker, daniels or jamison.

now we can dress up their lineup change anyway we want. but its not who starts, its who finishes, its who is on the court when you gotta stop the other team or when you make a run. and yes, maybe finley will make a small difference at the 3, but in the mavs offense, it doesnt matter what position finley plays. small ball is for defense, and on defense, with those aforementioned five on the floor, they still suck defensively, and offense, they will be what theyve been all year: a highly entertaining team capable of scoring in bunches or being shutdown by anybody.

[OutletPass]

If you look simply at minutes:

For the season:...............last 2 games(avg)
Dirk.........38.4.......................38.
Fin...........38.7.......................hurt.
Walker....35.3.......................32.
Nash.......33.7.......................32.
Jamison...29.0.......................23.5

The top 5 take 73.1% of all available minutes in the regular season.

J Ho.......23.9.........................40.
Daniels..14.6.........................41.

Take Finley's 38 minutes and add them to J Ho and Daniels normal 38 and you get 76...vs the 81 that they're actually getting from them in the last 2 games. So, compensating for Fin's absence, the rookies are getting a bit more than you'd expect and, surprisingly, Jamison is getting a bit less than you'd expect.

Look at the "center" play though.

Bradley....11.9.....................9.9.
Fortson....11.2.....................5.5.
Williams....10.3....................2.5.
Najera......13.1.....................6.0

We'll see how things shake out when Fin gets healthy...but it's pretty clear that the minutes that are coming "AWAY" are coming away from the so-called centers. And not from the "top 5". Jamison is the only one who's playing less on a real basis. And not by all that much.

The same players are getting the bulk of the minutes....the only real difference is that Nellie's "pretense" of STARTING Bradley, Williams or Fortson has been thrown out the window.

[grndmstr_c]

small ball is for defense

Huh? Nellie's decision is in part motivated by the problems the Mavs have had with their perimeter D, but the principle intent of small ball is to create mismatches on offense (and in this case avoid benching Walker). The Mavs offense this year has not been anything like a small ball offensive team in that their success has been due largely to their work on the offensive boards. Rebounding is not the strength of the small ball approach, so offensively it's quite unlikely that the Mavs, when they do put out a lineup of Nash, Daniels, and Fin together will look the same as they have all year.

[1timesportsbeatwriter]

Again, i dont care how you label this new-fangled thing nellie is doing, but this wont be anythign new for the mavs opponents to deal with and it shouldnt be anything new to sports fans who watch the mavs on tv. So the centers wont play that much, so finley starts at the 3 - it doesnt matter. If the mavericks do well in the playoffs, it will be because the big three, the antoines, and the two rookies play better than they have played the last month. and if they dont do well in the playoffs, it will be because they have sucked the last month. Small ball, big balls, run-n-shoot, fun-n-gun, hack-a-shaq _ none of that will matter. the players on the floor will have to play better.

[OutletPass]

Again, i dont care how you label this new-fangled thing nellie is doing, but this wont be anythign new for the mavs opponents to deal with and it shouldnt be anything new to sports fans who watch the mavs on tv.

--Totally agreed. If my post wasn't clear enough...the only thing really different is that the centers (who weren't getting much at all) will be getting even less. The overwhelming majority of minutes are still going to the top 5 and the rookies. There's not just THAT much that's different.

--You can call it anything you like, but the same 7 are getting 85% of the minutes.

[grndmstr_c]

To this point in the season the lineup of Nash, Daniels, Fin, Dirk, and Walker has seen the floor a total of 49 minutes, so again, if that lineup gets significant minutes, which they figure to do starting every game, it will be a different wrinkle for the Mavs this year. Beyond that, with the stipulation that I think the lineups in which players are used may have a considerable impact on how effective the players are, I agree that it will all come down to how well the guys on the court play. That goes without saying.

[FreshJive]

Again, i dont care how you label this new-fangled thing nellie is doing, but this wont be anythign new for the mavs opponents to deal with and it shouldnt be anything new to sports fans who watch the mavs on tv.

So far its absolutely been something new for the Mavs. They no longer seem to have trouble scoring, and Dirk and Nash have been getting the majority of the touches finally. Also, the inefficiency that is Antoine Walker no longer is able to dominate the ball.

You can't just compare the percentage of minutes players play, and say "its nothing new". You have to take into account the positions that the players are playing as well as the matchups. Whoever is playing the center position really has nothing to do with wether its small ball or not. Its all about who plays small forward.

[OutletPass]

They no longer seem to have trouble scoring,

--It might be prudentl to reserve judgment until they play someone other than the absolute #1 worst team in the league and the #9 worst team in the league according to won/loss record. they also happen to be the worst defensive team and the 12th worse defensive team...and BTW, Sacto is the 4th worst defensive team...so we need to wait on any knee jerk assessment.

We'll see...we'll see.

it's still the same guys on the floor almost all of the time.

Matchups are overrated.

[Poindexter Einstein]

OP ..."it's still the same guys on the floor almost all of the time" ...I have to disagree with that. Playing Daniels major minutes at the 2, with Fin moving to the 3, then sliding him to the 1 when Nash goes out, is a huge difference in the size and feel of the rotation. This look is designed to free up Dirk and Fin for much better and easier looks, and it is much more effective, because of the threat posed by Daniels. To me, that is a significant change. (I think Delk was brought here to provide what Daniels offers, and has instead been a monstrous disappointment. I think they auditioned Welsch in the preseason for such a role and didnt feel he was ready, and they wanted that hole filled NOW, so he was expendable for Delk. That IMO is one of the untold realities of the trades and the Mavs season.)

[OutletPass]

Since this was the first game that Fin has been back completely to play major minutes and we're not going against a top 15 defensive team, let's wait to see how it shakes out.

I thought that I made that pretty clear.... in case ANYONE missed it...here's what I said :

--You can call it anything you like, but the same 7 are getting 85% of the minutes.

I also said:

--It might be prudent to reserve judgment until they play someone other than the absolute #1 worst team in the league and the #9 worst team in the league according to won/loss record. they also happen to be the worst defensive team and the 12th worse defensive team...and BTW, Sacto is the 4th worst defensive team...so we need to wait on any knee jerk assessment.

If either are incorrect, then please address those two statements head on without any oblique statements based on subjectivity.

I'll even help you get the stats....The top 7 in minutes the last three months are:
Dirk, Fin, Steve, Walker, Jamison, Howard and Daniels. Tonight, they played 90% of the minutes.

Let's not make too much of Nellie's sleight of hand.

Can the Mavs really win against Shaq and the Lakers with Walker at the 5 ?
The answer is too obvious for this man who's had season tix since day one.

(Too bad the Sock stole them tonight...and I was left with pzza !)