Good article about the expansion draft

[kg_veteran]

David Lord over at db.com wrote an informative article on how the expansion draft will work and some potential scenarios that might play themselves out. Check it out.

Link

[cheesestar]

for the "on the bubble" players i think they'll protect bradley and najera. i dont seenajera parting with the mavs cuz i thnk nellielike him on the team and it would be wrong to not protect bradley. good artcle.

[Poindexter Einstein]

The X(pansion) Factor
Mavs Have Options In Bobcats Draft

By David Lord -- DallasBasketball.com
The ins and outs, the lowdown, the straight skinny, on the expansion draft and what might happen, including the facts, Charlotte's options, various strategies the Bobcats might pursue, and the implications for the Dallas Mavericks.

BACKGROUND FACTS

Charlotte will stock its roster with players from other NBA rosters on June 22 (if the NBA Finals goes to Game 7, it will be June 23). The 2004 NBA rookie draft is June 24.

Selections: Each team is allowed to protect as many as 8 players from being selected by Charlotte. They are required to leave at least one player available to be taken. Unrestricted free agents are ineligible to be selected and thus do not need to be protected.

Prelim: On June 12, the teams not in the NBA Finals will provide their list of protected players to the Bobcats. Teams in the NBA Finals will have 2 days from the conclusion of their season. Note that the Mavs and most teams do not publicly announce which players are being protected.

Limits: Charlotte may select up to one player from each team, for a total of 29. They are allowed to select as few as 14.

Interesting technical detail: If a team loses a player in this draft, it is treated as if the player has been traded away. As a result, two rules will come into play.

(1) The team is not permitted to reacquire that player for a year, unless the player is waived and goes unclaimed.
(2) The team will receive a Trade Exception equivalent to the selected player's salary. Such an exception allows a team over the cap to take back that added amount in a trade, if they are over the cap. This does not allow the team over the cap to go out and sign someone to a free agent contract and "refill that salary slot" as has been erroneously reported elsewhere.

Example: What can you do with a Trade Exception? If you are working a trade, you can use the exception to take back more cap room than you traded away. (That's why it is called an Exception.) Using a hypothetical of Charlotte getting a $4M player from me in the draft, I could trade away a $5M player and take back a $9M player in a future trade. Or I could trade a 5M for a 7M, and then retain the other 2M for a later deal.

There are very limited uses for it however, and it expires in a year. It cannot be combined with other exceptions such as the 115% rule; thus unless it is a sizable amount it probably won't ever come into play.

CHARLOTTE'S OPTIONS

Salary Cap: Charlotte's salary cap for Year One will be 2/3 of that for other teams (and only 3/4 in Year Two), so with a first year cap of only about $30M, money will be a factor in the selections. However, Charlotte is allowed to go over the cap in selecting players, if it prefers to.

Side deals: Charlotte is permitted to enter into trades or deals with teams in which they agree in advance to select or not select certain unprotected players.

Restricted Free Agents (RFAs): If an RFA is unprotected and selected, they immediately become an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA). Charlotte will gain the re-signing advantages held by the UFAs prior team, such as Bird Rights. The team from whom the RFA was selected will not be eligible to sign that player.

What about players who have options or opt outs (like Nash or Kobe), who have not made a decision prior to the draft? If unprotected, they may be selected. The player would still be able to exercise their option or opt out prior to July 1, and become a free agent from Charlotte, if they chose to. Apparently Charlotte would have Bird Rights and the ability to engineer sign-and-trades utilizing such a player, if this situation arose.

What about players that are selected but that are not good enough to make the team in Charlotte? Charlotte will be allowed to cut such a player prior to the start of the season. The Bobcats will still be required to pay the player's salary, but that salary will NOT count against their cap.


CHARLOTTE'S POTENTIAL STRATEGIES

There are several strategies Charlotte might opt to use in order to maximize their advantages in this draft.

Side deals: Charlotte is permitted to enter into trades or deals with teams in which they agree in advance to select or not select certain unprotected players. The obvious such deal is one in which a team doesn't want to lose a particular player.

A different use of the same opportunity would be a deal in which Charlotte agrees to take a certain undesired player off the roster of a team. This would typically center on a player with a bloated contract, whose ability is questionable and who causes that team to incur Luxury Tax payments. The team might be willing to toss in draft picks to Charlotte to take such a player off their hands, which would give the Bobcats extra shots in the draft at young talent in upcoming years.

A team like Detroit might be willing to make a true sweetheart deal with Charlotte, if they will select Elden Campbell or Corliss Williamson. Such a move would seemingly free up enough cap room for the Pistons to be able to re-sign both Rasheed wallace and Mehmet Okur this summer. If the Bobcats want to play "Let's Make a Deal" with Detroit, what could they net? Several first round draft picks would seem to be a given. Could they even pry away someone like the unused but promising Darko Milicic if they agree to take one of those big contracts?

Salary Dump: Somewhat related to the above scenario, Charlotte could agree for the right price to become a dumping ground for teams needing to jettison a contract to get under the Luxury Tax levels, or to free up room to sign another team's free agent like Kobe. If the player they agreed to take is lousy, Charlotte could merely cut them and still retain its own cap space, although they would still have to pay the salary itself. Thus the Bobcats, if they had a willingness to spend extra cash on wasted salary, could obtain something desirable (such as draft picks, or maybe a young unused player with potential), if the price is right.

Cheapies: Although Charlotte has far less cap room (2/3) than other teams this year, they still currently have far more cap room than almost every other team. They might prefer to draft the very cheapest unprotected players available, in order to preserve their huge cap room and use it to pursue UFA's, with a big advantage.

RFA's: Charlotte could draft RFA's, who would then become unrestricted. In such a scenario, the player drafted would cost them nothing against their cap. These would be the ultimate cheapies, and Charlotte would have the ability to try to re-sign such a player, with Bird Rights advantages (if such exist on that player) or the like, if they wanted to.

Highly Paid Semi-Stars: Would a team be willing to expose "semi-stars" who have signed a big contract (especially a max contract) but are overpaid, in the anticipation that Charlotte would prefer cheap selections? What might Charlotte do with the opportunity to select such players?

It is quite unlikely that Charlotte would want such a player on their roster, because of the way it would kill their flexibility. One maxed out contract could eat up almost half of their cap room. In light of this, Charlotte could decide to avoid such players. But an alternate twist would have the Bobcats taking the talent, and then using it as trade bait to other teams.

DALLAS' OPTIONS

With all of that as the background, what are the Mavericks likely to do? Here is an analysis of every player on the Mavs' roster, and their chances of being unprotected and selected.

Players and Situations
Scott Williams: UFA. Ineligible for protected list or for selection by Charlotte.
Travis Best: UFA. Ineligible for protected list or for selection by Charlotte.
Steve Nash: Currently is under contract for 2004-05. Has the ability to opt out of the remaining year of his existing contract, and has said he will do so. If he opts out prior to June 12, he will be a UFA and ineligible for the protected list or for selection by Charlotte.
Dirk Nowitzki: Under contract. Certain to be protected.
Josh Howard: Under contract. Certain to be protected
Michael Finley: Under contract. Highly paid for a long time to come. Still very good in the right sets, but production doesn't match his contract. He could fit the semi-star scenario in which the team exposes a highly paid player, gambling that Charlotte won't take him. More likely than not to be protected. If Dallas doesn't want him, he would have much trade value.
Antoine Walker: Currently is under contract for 2004-05. Has the ability to opt out of the remaining year of his existing contract, but is not expected to do so. He could fit the semi-star scenario in which the team exposes a highly paid player, gambling that Charlotte won't take him. More likely than not to be protected. If Dallas doesn't want him, he would have high trade value with his expiring contract.
Antawn Jamison: Under contract. Highly paid for a long time to come. He is very productive but could fit the semi-star scenario in which the team exposes a highly paid player, gambling that Charlotte won't take him. More likely than not to be protected. If Dallas doesn't want him, he would have much trade value.
Marquis Daniels: Currently is a UFA, but the Mavs could designate him as restricted instead. As a RFA the Mavs would be able to match any offer and keep him, up to the MLE (expected to be approx $5M). If he is a UFA rather than RFA, the Mavs would have the exact same cap ability to re-sign him, except they would lose the mandatory ability to match an offer. Might they leave him UFA? Such a move would rely heavily on whether or not they feel like Daniels wants to be here more than any other location. Though this could be a gamble they feel comfortable taking, the guess here is that Daniels is designated a RFA. In that case, he would be certain to be protected.
Tariq Abdul-Wahad: Under contract. Huge long term contract, fixture on the Injured List, has no use here going forward. Will not be protected. The Mavs would love to make deal with Charlotte to take him off their hands in the draft.
Tony Delk: Under contract, with 2 more years totaling about $6.5M. Has some ability, and is reportedly great for morale, but has not been able to contribute on the floor in a meaningful way. Unlikely to be protected.
Eduardo Najera: Under contract, with 4 more years totaling about $17.5M. Has a sporadic role in the rotation, often providing lots of energy and frustrating opponents. But has limitations in ability, and frequent injuries. On the bubble.
Shawn Bradley: Under contract, with 4 more years totaling about $18.5M. The only true center on the roster for 2004-05 and beyond, and at times is the dominating shot blocker. Limitations in ability and is aging. On the bubble.
Danny Fortson: Under contract, with 3 more years totaling about $19.5M. Is a dominating rebounder. Has a sporadic role in the rotation, due to limitations in size and offense. On the bubble.
Jon Stefansson: Under contract, with 5 more years at the minimum, all non-guaranteed. Is not more than a invisible project so far, but the contract would appeal to Charlotte. Whether or not he is protected will depend on how the Mavs evaluate his progress behind the scenes. On the bubble.

Mavs Summary - what is likely to happen?

Ineligible (3) - Williams, Best, Nash (expect he will exercise opt out before June 12)
Certain to be protected (2) - Nowitzki, Howard
Likely to be protected (4) - Finley, Walker, Jamison, Daniels.
Definitely unprotected (2) - Abdul-Wahad, Delk
On the bubble (4) - Najera, Bradley, Fortson, Stefansson. Since only two of these can be protected, there is a 50-50 chance on each of these. The guess here: Najera (for his energy) and Bradley (for his size) are protected, while Fortson and Stefansson are exposed. If they actually think Stefansson is developing nicely (which no one knows except the Mavs), then he will definitely not be exposed, and they have have to find someone else to add. They could perhaps leave Daniels as a UFA (thus opening up another protected slot). Otherwise, my guess is that they expose Najera and gamble that Charlotte won't want his contract with his injury history.

Who would Charlotte take?

In the scenario above, I would expect Charlotte to choose in the following order:
1. Stefansson if available
2. No one
3. Delk (smallest contract)
4. Najera/Fortson (Fortson would probably provide the best rebounder they will get. Najera might have appeal since his annual salary is smaller than Fortson's)
5. Abdul-Wahad (via a deal of some sort)