The "STFU Moronic/Shortsighted Pessimists, Lets Talk About This Team's Upside" Thread

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I don't understand how treading water until a gem shows up is any worse than completely dismantling a team and tanking for a first rounder. Obviously Cuban believes more in known talent in the form of free agents than he does in draft picks. Let's not pretend that shooting for a big FA and failing is a risky venture and tanking for draft picks isn't. Dirk's got 2-4 years left in him if he ever comes back the same player. By the time our first rounder from 2013 wears a Dallas uniform that is down to 1-3 years left for Dirk. Then add 2-3 years of development and you're basically rebuilding around the first rounder instead of Dirk.

That also assumes that the draft pick actually works out and I'd put our odds slightly below the average in the lottery. Of the first-overall draft picks between 1998-2008 (who should have the best odds of becoming stars and who have had time to develop that 2-3years), only 4 of 11 (36%) have been allstars (Rose, LeBron, Howard, Ming) and 20% have retired from injury. (Ming/Oden)

And that trend is even more dramatic when you look at the entire lottery. Roughly 18% of picks 1-15 ever make an all-star game and only 50% stay in the league much after their rookie contract. Those odds aren't particularly good, particularly because tanking for worst record would completely decimate our fan base and drive away any of the free agents that might have considered coming here. Also consider that the worst team only got the first pick 4 out of 28 times (14%) in the last 28 years, and 2/19 (10.5%) since 1994 (when the odds were improved), it's not even a sure thing that a team that tanks will even get a first-overall, despite having a 25% statistical chance.

All that bad mojo only gets us a 25% chance of first overall (11% historically) and a first-overall pick only pans out roughly 36% of the time. Is that a good gamble compared to trying to keep Mayo and securing a bigger FA this summer or pulling a big trade at the deadline?

number of all-stars in the lottery by year
2008- 3/15 (20%) Rose 1st, Westbrook 4th, Love 5th,
2007- 1/15 (7%) Durant 2nd
2006- 2/15 (13%) Aldridge 2nd, Roy 6th
2005- 2/15 (13%) Paul 4th, Deron 3rd, Bynum 10th
2004- 2/15 Howard 1st, Deng 7th
2003- 5/15 (33%) Lebron 1st, Carmelo 3rd, Bosh 4th, Wade 5th, Kaman 6th
2002- 3/15 (20%) Ming 1st, Stoudamire 9th, Butler 10th
2001- 2/15 (13%) Gasol 3rd, Johnson 10th
2000- 0/15 (0%)
1999- 5/15 (33%) Brand 1st, Francis 2nd, Davis 3rd, Hamilton 7th, Marion 9th
1998- 4/15 (27%) Jamison 4th, Carter 5th, Dirk 9th, Pierce 10th

Only 18% (29/165) of players from the last 11 lottery drafts have gone on to appear in even one allstar game.Even in the two best years in recent memory ('99 and '03) lottery teams only had a 1/3 c hance of securing an all-star.So even if we were to secure the worst record, we'd only have a 25% chance (11% historically) to secure a first-overall pick and first overall picks have only panned out 40% of the time. Of course with the worst record, we'd be guaranteed a lottery pick but those only pan out at about a rate of 18% historically (1998-2008) and EVEN IF we did secure a future all-star, the likelihood that they'd reach that level before Dirk retires is minuscule.

1) Tanking basically gives up on Dirk because it depends on draft picks that will take time, while playing the free-agent lottery is just as risky but may give us a chance during Dirk's career

2) Tanking for worst record only gives us a 25% chance (10.5% historically with current odds) of drafting the first-overall guy who has a 36% chance of being an allstar and/or a lottery pick who have only panned out 18% of the time.

3) Tanking destroys the brand, alienates fans and leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouths-- including FAs that have finally warmed to Dallas.

Tbh I agree with you. Tanking and hoping for lottery gold also seems like a crap shoot. I don't know how but it would seem gathering "good" talent for trades for low picks or to,trade for solid players would be the best course. I don't know how the spurs do it, but I would be all over their folks to find out.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by dude1394

As mentioned after Tyson left keeping jkiddo is kinda irrelevant, i understand why they wanted to because their pg play is atrocious. But since this team isnt going anywhere for awhile, it was kinda moot.

After cubes decided to tear it down I would be focusing much more on the draft to be honest, find a way to build up their talent evaluation. The idea of "sorta" competing (which they are doing now) while waiting for a big free agent seems pretty ridiculous IMO. It's neither going for it nor tearing it down. I don't understand it. Maybe cubes/Donnie have some sort of plan but I'm not seeing it.

Ok, so there is really no point in talking about how you "would have kept Kidd." It's really just another way of saying that you would have kept Chandler (which, in turn, would have made keeping Kidd more relevant and appropriate).

[sike]

The following is a very interesting post. Thanks for the stats, EL.

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I don't understand how treading water until a gem shows up is any worse than completely dismantling a team and tanking for a first rounder. Obviously Cuban believes more in known talent in the form of free agents than he does in draft picks. Let's not pretend that shooting for a big FA and failing is a risky venture and tanking for draft picks isn't. Dirk's got 2-4 years left in him if he ever comes back the same player. By the time our first rounder from 2013 wears a Dallas uniform that is down to 1-3 years left for Dirk. Then add 2-3 years of development and you're basically rebuilding around the first rounder instead of Dirk.

That also assumes that the draft pick actually works out and I'd put our odds slightly below the average in the lottery. Of the first-overall draft picks between 1998-2008 (who should have the best odds of becoming stars and who have had time to develop that 2-3years), only 4 of 11 (36%) have been allstars (Rose, LeBron, Howard, Ming) and 20% have retired from injury. (Ming/Oden)

And that trend is even more dramatic when you look at the entire lottery. Roughly 18% of picks 1-15 ever make an all-star game and only 50% stay in the league much after their rookie contract. Those odds aren't particularly good, particularly because tanking for worst record would completely decimate our fan base and drive away any of the free agents that might have considered coming here. Also consider that the worst team only got the first pick 4 out of 28 times (14%) in the last 28 years, and 2/19 (10.5%) since 1994 (when the odds were improved), it's not even a sure thing that a team that tanks will even get a first-overall, despite having a 25% statistical chance.

All that bad mojo only gets us a 25% chance of first overall (11% historically) and a first-overall pick only pans out roughly 36% of the time. Is that a good gamble compared to trying to keep Mayo and securing a bigger FA this summer or pulling a big trade at the deadline?

number of all-stars in the lottery by year
2008- 3/15 (20%) Rose 1st, Westbrook 4th, Love 5th,
2007- 1/15 (7%) Durant 2nd
2006- 2/15 (13%) Aldridge 2nd, Roy 6th
2005- 2/15 (13%) Paul 4th, Deron 3rd, Bynum 10th
2004- 2/15 Howard 1st, Deng 7th
2003- 5/15 (33%) Lebron 1st, Carmelo 3rd, Bosh 4th, Wade 5th, Kaman 6th
2002- 3/15 (20%) Ming 1st, Stoudamire 9th, Butler 10th
2001- 2/15 (13%) Gasol 3rd, Johnson 10th
2000- 0/15 (0%)
1999- 5/15 (33%) Brand 1st, Francis 2nd, Davis 3rd, Hamilton 7th, Marion 9th
1998- 4/15 (27%) Jamison 4th, Carter 5th, Dirk 9th, Pierce 10th

Only 18% (29/165) of players from the last 11 lottery drafts have gone on to appear in even one allstar game.Even in the two best years in recent memory ('99 and '03) lottery teams only had a 1/3 c hance of securing an all-star.So even if we were to secure the worst record, we'd only have a 25% chance (11% historically) to secure a first-overall pick and first overall picks have only panned out 40% of the time. Of course with the worst record, we'd be guaranteed a lottery pick but those only pan out at about a rate of 18% historically (1998-2008) and EVEN IF we did secure a future all-star, the likelihood that they'd reach that level before Dirk retires is minuscule.

1) Tanking basically gives up on Dirk because it depends on draft picks that will take time, while playing the free-agent lottery is just as risky but may give us a chance during Dirk's career

2) Tanking for worst record only gives us a 25% chance (10.5% historically with current odds) of drafting the first-overall guy who has a 36% chance of being an allstar and/or a lottery pick who have only panned out 18% of the time.

3) Tanking destroys the brand, alienates fans and leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouths-- including FAs that have finally warmed to Dallas.

[sike]

Kaman can't defend like Chandler, that's for sure.

Chandler can't score like Kaman, that's for sure.

Chandler is most likely the better pairing for Dirk.

Chandler is a New York Knick...that's for certain.

Let it go already.

[sike]

As far as how good this team could have been, if Dirk hadn't been injured, I'd suggest they would have contended for the 3-5th seed in the West.

As it is, I see them battling for the 7th or 8th seed and being the kind of team that (if healthy) could scare some teams in playoffs.

[sike]

I'm good:

[Kidd Karma]

When Williams said Avery, and Howard was moved to LA that was it. It was a quick job to stay competitive and flexible going forward. In these types of fixes, you're not going to go 60-20. Even without Dirk, the Mavs have been playing over their heads. First the Collison/Jones trade, then Kaman, Brand these are not names you build your team around. These are great 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th options on quality teams. So that means there must be 4 more players before them on the totem pole.....Dirk, OJ......eeeehhhh Marion's 4th. But when you're missing Dirk and a 3rd option, you're in for a world of hurt. We know OJ would have been a great Robin to Dirk's Batman. But now even Dirk is realizing he's not Batman any more, he needs a Batman....OJ is not Batman. Does that mean you go in and steal Howard next summer? Sure, I would, I leave no stone unturned going after him. We got OJ, Dirk, the trophy and a hungry Metroplex. Right now the Mavs need to see who's a keeper and who isn't going forward. I would imagine Dirk, OJ, Wright, and the rookies are for sure, Marion due to contractual obligation is a keeper as well....even Jones and Boobs, I'm going no thanks. You're hoping you get a good draft pick, maybe find another player undervalued ala OJ next summer...if you don't get Howard.

[Spurred1]

The incessant whining about Kidd and Chandler is incredibly tiresome. May be time to move on, but hell, this is a place where people still bemoan the loss of Nash and Harris-even though those guys haven't won anything, and Harris has been passed around like a cheap whore from team to team.
This is what the Mavs team is now-not ideal, but maybe they can do some damage IF Dirk gets completely healthy, merges with the rest of the team, and everyone stays healthy enough to figure it all out. Collison has been a touch disappointing, but maybe Fisher can mentor him and he'll improve.
More questions than answers about this team, frankly.

[dude1394]

Probably almost as tiresome as the whining about Brendan Wright. Fans gonna whine about something.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Probably almost as tiresome as the whining about Brendan Wright. Fans gonna whine about something.

Brandan Wright currently plays for the team. Fans could whine about Brandan Wright a hundred fold and it would still be vastly more relevant than continued discussions about a player who hasn't played in Dallas for a year and a half and counting.

[dude1394]

But just as tiring.

[ReDirkulous Tyme]

went back and looked at this thread the other day, despite our record being below what i had hoped for/anticipated at this point, I have just as much, if not more optimism than I possessed when I created this thread. If RC can learn that Brand needs to be starting, I see this as being a team with a ton of upside, given that Elton Brand is beginning to look like a Kaman/Chandler hybrid....although maybe i'm reaching a bit with that claim. I still believe this team has more upside and potential than anyone is willing to give them credit for...

[j0Shi]

This teams "upside" is still the 8th spot. So yeah, there hasn't really changed a lot.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

This teams "upside" is still the 8th spot. So yeah, there hasn't really changed a lot.

That sounds pretty short-sighted considering: 1) they're almost halfway through the season and they still haven't had the benefit of franchise-player Dirk, and 2) *if* they get into the playoffs they will have done it by closing out the season playing at a considerably higher level than would ever be expected of an 8th seed. That might still not account for more than a first-round out given the inevitable difficulty of their first-round matchup, but taken in full context the "upside" of an 8th seed would still unarguably imply that Dallas fielded a strong, competitive team this year.

[j0Shi]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

That sounds pretty short-sighted considering: 1) they're almost halfway through the season and they still haven't had the benefit of franchise-player Dirk, and 2) *if* they get into the playoffs they will have done it by closing out the season playing at a considerably higher level than would ever be expected of an 8th seed. That might still not account for more than a first-round out given the inevitable difficulty of their first-round matchup, but taken in full context the "upside" of an 8th seed would still unarguably imply that Dallas fielded a strong, competitive team this year.

True.

I think though reaching the playoffs is only possible if teams like Houston (5-game losing streak! ya!) and Utah will experience a serious dropoff and finish well below 43 wins. Don't think Portland will be a real threat long term, Wolves are injury-bitten, so there would be room for Dallas and the Lakers. We should hope to sneak in there with 40 wins and the right tiebreakers, which means a 27-19 record in the remainder (including the current streak). That record for 46 games translates into 48 wins for a 82-game season. 48 win in the West is good for the 7th seed. So I would correct the "upside" one spot.

If they do come up with 43+ wins, meaning going 30-16 or better along the way, it would truly be impressive.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

True.

I think though reaching the playoffs is only possible if teams like Houston (5-game losing streak! ya!) and Utah will experience a serious dropoff and finish well below 43 wins. Don't think Portland will be a real threat long term, Wolves are injury-bitten, so there would be room for Dallas and the Lakers. We should hope to sneak in there with 40 wins and the right tiebreakers, which means a 27-19 record in the remainder (including the current streak). That record for 46 games translates into 48 wins for a 82-game season. 48 win in the West is good for the 7th seed. So I would correct the "upside" one spot.

If they do come up with 43+ wins, meaning going 30-16 or better along the way, it would truly be impressive.

I've been assuming a winning season (in the neighborhood of 43+) would be required to get in to the playoffs, so that's the hypothetical bar I'm measuring them against. Regardless, it's definitely still too early to say how close reality will get to rosy upside. Overall during their recent winning streak and the preceding stretch of close road losses against playoff teams and/or in unfriendly arenas I'd say they've looked about like an 8th seed, give or take. And wherever they end up in the regular season rankings I'd assume everyone is in agreement that if a trip to the playoffs is going to have any chance of being worthwhile, they'll definitely have to take their play up a couple notches.

[The Ghost of Championship]

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

As of late, I've witnessed a plethora of members expressing notions, rooted in shortsighted pessimism, which paint an extremely bleak picture of how this season will/should/could play out. This post is basically to refute the ill-conceived notions that seem rampant on this forum lately.

First, let me state that this team (in case you didn't know) is without the backbone/cornerstone/face of the franchise, the Big German. In case you don't remember, our championship season, during the games he was down with an injury, we went 2-7. Even when we got him back we were pretty terrible for awhile, and extremely inconsistent, due to his lack of health and the loss of Caron Butler. But alas, I digress, I merely point this out to illustrate the fact that a championship team, when assembled the way Cuban and Co. have elected to do so over the last several years, will still suck when missing the foundation that team was built on: The Dirk. Granted, this is a COMPLETELY different team, but the team's reliance on Dirk has never been higher. TO be honest, I'm surprised we've even stayed close to .500. Dirk is the backbone of the Mavericks, and has been for over a decade. Without him this team is simply going to be mediocre at best.

Having said that, I maintain that this is one of, if not the most talented Mavs team I've seen, when healthy. And yes, that includes our championship team. We have a TON of upside here, and it simply doesn't function at the same level when everyone's responsibility is elevated, as it has been without Dirk in the lineup. Neither OJ nor Kaman can consistently be a #1 option, however, having both of them as #2 options is quite sexy in my opinion. But thats just 1 example.

OJ Mayo - I've been extremely impressed so far. His work ethic, insatiable desire to improve, and relentless work ethic are outstanding. However, he hasn't yet improved to the point where he can be THE GUY on a consistent basis, and in my opinion that is something that is still to be determined. As such, he is going to have down games like he has had this season where he simply doesn't have the impact we need him to have. Unfortunately, the result of this is typically an embarrassing defeat. He has so much responsibility with Dirk out, and in my opinion has done an admirable job of shouldering that responsibility. At times it is simply too much. However, the upside I HAVE seen leads me to believe that once he has a bit of time to mesh with Dirk, we'll see a 2 man game that surpasses in effectiveness even the one displayed by Dirk and Terry over the years.

Chris Kayman - Has anyone else ever seen a center who could shoot the ball as many times per minute as this guy? Quite amusing in my opinion, but understandable due to his limited minutes because of injury. I've been loving his offensive game, although his defense is extremely lackluster, and leaves me thinking it might not be best to play him and Dirk at the same time, unless he improves substantially. I think Kaman, at times, is a bit too assertive and takes some shots that are somewhat forced, but I think this is simply due to the fact that he understands we are in DIRE need of consistent scoring, so I can't really fault him for this. In my opinion, Kaman could be a deadly and potent offensive force for us off the bench, and used as a main option when the German is getting breathers.

Elton Brand - This guy has been somewhat of a head-scratcher to me. I love his passion and enthusiasm, and I feel as if he brings it every night, but he simply CAN NOT find a consistent offensive groove. I think he is just extremely hesitant right now and lacks confidence. Hopefully with the return of Dirk he'll start getting more wide open looks, which hopefully will lead to some of that confidence returning and him producing at the level that I'm sure he's still capable of, given the ease of the types of shots he's been missing. I just have to feel like he's going to get it going because its not a Lamar type situation where he doesn't seem to be bringing the effort/intensity. He just seems out of a groove, hopefully he finds it. Love the hustle he gives on the defensive end and his willingness to go toe-to-toe with anyone, regardless of size. I think he will end up being an extremely potent/useful weapon for us as the season progresses. But in my opinion he's kind of a wild card in this respect.

Darren Collison - can you say inconsistent? He seems to be having issues knowing when to be aggressive and play as a scoring point guard, as opposed to when to create shots for others and act as a distributor. I've seen enough upside to believe that, if he can find a comfortable niche in Carlisle's offensive scheme, he could be an extremely potent weapon off the bench, or potentially in a starting role if he can find some damn consistency. However, he's the player that I'm the most sketchy on, just can't really put my finger on it.

Brandan Wright - this man needs to play more often. I feel like he CONSISTENTLY has a positive effect on the game, and his offensive game is truly quite polished. I understand that Carlisle has issues with his rebounding, but the threat he brings when it comes to blocking shots I feel also should be accounted for. In my opinion this guy deserves playing time. He simply doesn't make the bone-headed decisions that I think plague this team on a daily basis. Would love to see if I'm correct in my high regard of him, because I think he could be an EXTREMELY valuable weapon for this team if correctly utilized. Not talking about 30 min/game by the way, just correctly utilized with the right lineups

Honestly, this is just a start, and given the fact that I still haven't studied for my Civil Liberties final that is tomorrow, I should prolly get started on that. I'll prolly edit this and include some other players that honestly deserve to be mentioned as well, I simply don't have time to do so right now. Enjoy, and all you fickle pessimists, feel free to voice your disagreement. I'm curious to see if any of you can invalidate any of my claims.

Do you know what you're asking for bro? If we somehow miraculously manage to play 65% basketball then we're a 44-40 club that may or may not squeak into a bottom playoff spot. Then what?

You wanna call me shortsited when you're hoping we move down the draft ladder instead of up? Players aren't going to be around next year so no need to build chemistry. Just more win mantra stupidity drum beat blibbity bloob.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by The Ghost of Championship

Do you know what you're asking for bro? If we somehow miraculously manage to play 65% basketball then we're a 44-40 club that may or may not squeak into a bottom playoff spot. Then what?

You wanna call me shortsited when you're hoping we move down the draft ladder instead of up? Players aren't going to be around next year so no need to build chemistry. Just more win mantra stupidity drum beat blibbity bloob.

Just popping in to remind you there are only 82 games in a season "bro." Sorry you have to whip your calculator out again.

Also, you're quoting a month-old post and Dirk has yet to reach 100%.

[ribosoma]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Probably almost as tiresome as the whining about Brendan Wright. Fans gonna whine about something.

GIFSoup

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by dude1394

But just as tiring.

If discussing current Mavs personnel is tiring for you, I'm not sure why you'd be perusing a Mavs message board.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

If discussing current Mavs personnel is tiring for you, I'm not sure why you'd be perusing a Mavs message board.

Redundancy BROTHA' redundancy. How many times do I have to read that wright should be playing?

From the same poster, over and over. Not even trying to make it entertaining.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Redundancy BROTHA' redundancy. How many times do I have to read that wright should be playing?

From the same poster, over and over. Not even trying to make it entertaining.

I hear you. It's annoying to hear anybody say the same thing over and over again, about anything.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Redundancy BROTHA' redundancy. How many times do I have to read that wright should be playing?

From the same poster, over and over. Not even trying to make it entertaining.

Redundancy like mentioning you know who over and over and over again?

Hey, I agree with you but heed your own words. Almost no chance Wright is here next season or even past the deadline for that matter.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Redundancy like mentioning you know who over and over and over again?

Hey, I agree with you but heed your own words. Almost no chance Wright is here next season or even past the deadline for that matter.

I'm not sure I've mentioned he who cannot be named in over a month. And even then it was entertaining.

[ReDirkulous Tyme]

Originally Posted by dude1394

I'm not sure I've mentioned he who cannot be named in over a month. And even then it was entertaining.

see its sad, I remember a couple years ago when I used to browse this forum with more regularity you were one of the prominent basketball minds posting here. Unfortunately, as I read through this thread, it seems you have devolved to pessimism and non-intellectual basketball notions....its sad.

[nowhereman]

I don't know if this has been brought up, but we should have kept Tyson Chandler.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

I don't know if this has been brought up, but we should have kept Tyson Chandler.

DOOD... so CrAzY... I have been thinking that for a while! Seriously. I am glad you mentioned it because I was scared to bring it up.