Official Political Poll Thread

[Dooby]

I don't know why, but both major tracking polls are trending TOWARD BUSH. Up 4 in Zogby; 3 in Rasmussen. It may be that Bush connected better with voters in the last 2 debates than many people thought.

Or it could be crap.

All I know is that Kerry/Edwards is spending time and money in PA, which they don't want to do.

[Drbio]

I think Bush clearly connected with the voters. However, I take all polling results with a steady grain of salt dose. They are good for basing effort and are fun for discussion, but that hard facts are that they are often waaaaaay off come election day.

I seriously think Bush will win by 75-100 electoral votes when push comes to shove.



Kerry has to be pissed that he is having to keep Pennsylvania and New Jersey in play.

[MavKikiNYC]

B. Butterfield's take on the candidates.

Click "Elections 2004".

[chumdawg]

That website has some funny stuff! Thanks for sharing.

I saw on Drudge that the Newsweek poll has Bush leading 50 to 44. But for what it's worth, TradeSports now has Bush with only a slight lead, after having him far ahead a couple weeks ago.

[Dooby]

Early look at CNN/Gallop/USA Today. Bush up 8.

[jacktruth]

Polls are really all over the place. It's really the time where national polls matter very little. It's battleground polls. I think it is time in the political season where people are really making up thier. That is why I think we're seeing drastic changes in the national polls. But, battleground states, the people are still innundated with the election and probably are not sure.

A look at 2000 polls vs results, very few state polls accurately predicted the spread, many failed to even predict the winner and some where off by double digits in some states. This is anybody's race for about 100 electoral votes. We may not even know our president until the end of the week of Nov 2.

[Mavdog.]

That is misleading and you know it. Kerry is up by at least 6 points.

[Dooby]

Originally posted by: Mavdog.
That is misleading and you know it. Kerry is up by at least 6 points.

Huh?

A) Who are you talking to?

B) What is your basis for this?

[u2sarajevo]

Dooby... notice that the name of that poster above you is Mavdog with a (.) period at the end of his username. And notice his lovely signature. I think Mavdog had gained an admirer.

[jacktruth]

Some poll data over teh last few days:

B45 K45 U8 Zogby
B47 K44 U9 TIPP
B52 K44 U3 Gallup
B47 K50 U2 Democracy Corps
B50 K46 U2 ABC/Wash Post
B50 K44 U5 Newsweek

I think it is interesting that the range across polls is: 45-52 for Bush and 44-50 for Kerry. That is 6 and 7 points difference, which is well outside the MOE claimed by any poll, so they are somewhat discredited anyway.

Also interesting, the undecided vote in these polls ranges from 2-8. This undecided number is fairly consistent within each poll (Gallup show consistenly 1-3 undecideds;Zogby shows consistently 7-8). This makes me wonder what constant is being used for each poll. The chances of an undecided vote must be more in Ohio than Texas, for example. And if there is a possible 8 pt swing based on undecided vote, there is considerably more error.

Can you safely project the same proportion onto the undecided vote? I don't know.

What scares me about this election is that it is going to be decided by people that can’t make up their minds. Think about it, what could an undecided voter possibly be still waiting for? If you don’t have a preference by now, you very possibly could be a flake. Are there any undecided voters on this board?

Also, there is a mixture of registered and likely voters accross the polls. It seems likely that likey voters is more accurate, since historically 46% of registered voters vote. Of course, there is no way to tell how many likely voters will vote.

In summary, if you really think about polling accuracy, your head will begin to spin.

[Dooby]

In summary, if you really think about polling accuracy, your head will begin to spin.

No time to respond now, but I will later.

[chumdawg]

What scares me about this election is that it is going to be decided by people that can’t make up their minds. Think about it, what could an undecided voter possibly be still waiting for? If you don’t have a preference by now, you very possibly could be a flake. Are there any undecided voters on this board?

Yes, that's a scary proposition. Scary, but very real. And I guess a major reason why presidential elections have become such marketing and PR fests.

I think that ultimately this election, though, will be decided by turnout rather than undecided voters. Which side can mobilize its base? That's my big worry when it comes to Bush. I think the polls probably come pretty close to capturing national opinion. But will the Republicans get out and vote?

[MavKikiNYC]

Originally posted by: chumdawg

Yes, that's a scary proposition. Scary, but very real. And I guess a major reason why presidential elections have become such marketing and PR fests.

I think that ultimately this election, though, will be decided by turnout rather than undecided voters. Which side can mobilize its base? That's my big worry when it comes to Bush. I think the polls probably come pretty close to capturing national opinion. But will the Republicans get out and vote?

Another variable: how likely to vote are voters who are undecided at this point?

Too many of these polls seem to be pure propaganda (especially the ones favoring Kerry). It seems like any monkey with a telephone can now conduct a poll, and publicize some wild result.

Local news reporting that Bush and Kerry are running even in heavily Democratic New Jersey. Interesting.

[mercury_rev]

I saw on Drudge that the Newsweek poll has Bush leading 50 to 44. But for what it's worth, TradeSports now has Bush with only a slight lead, after having him far ahead a couple weeks ago.

I trust futures markets like TradeSports and the Iowa Electronic Markets more than polls because, as Don Luskin puts it, a futures market forces people to put their money where their mouths are. Of course, TradeSports has been recently hit by some "speculative attacks" but it always rebounds to the equilibrium within minutes.

All these polls have different methodologies, different internals, relatively small sample sizes, and all the intangibles that go with responding to a poll questioner. I bet if there were a number of polls on how accurate polls are, the results would vary widely [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[u2sarajevo]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 284 Bush 247


And here come the dismissals......

[Dooby]

Originally posted by: u2sarajevo


And here come the dismissals......

I don't think I have commented once on the electoral college on this thread, so I'll bite.

My only problem with this site is that a one point lead puts the votes in one column or another. So one poll by Survey USA in Florida shows Kerry with a 1 point lead and he shoots up to 284. Whatever. That being said, I don't know what is going to happen in Florida.

Oh, and I'll believe Nevada votes for Kerry when I see it; i.e. it ain't ever going to happen.

[u2sarajevo]

Well, I said that tounge in cheek Dooby. I still find it very hard to put any stock in polls. That site, as has been pointed out here before, is ran by a Democrat leaning person.

So grains of salt should probably be applied before visiting it.

[Usually Lurkin]

realclearpolitics.com has the E.C. count tightening up, too.
Bush 227 ---- Kerry 220

[Dooby]

Those 5 states (not NM) that is for all the marbles. And what do you know, those were the 5 closest states 4 years ago. I don't expect Bush to win PA. I like Bush's chances in Wisconsin.

Ohio and Florida for all the marbles, just like last time.

[Dooby]

Here's a poll for you, almost worth of its own thread.

Poll: Kerry Has Wide Support Among Blacks

2 hours, 40 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Blacks prefer Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry (news - web sites) over President Bush (news - web sites) by a nearly 4-to-1 margin, though their support for the Democrat is down slightly from the backing Al Gore (news - web sites) received in 2000, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Bush didn't get good marks for his handling of the war in Iraq (news - web sites) or for his overall job performance, according to the poll of black Americans from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. The center is a Washington-based research group that focuses on issues concerning blacks.

Bush enjoys stronger support than in 2000 from those age 50 and older and those who consider themselves "Christian conservatives."

That has helped the president narrow the still sizable gap with Kerry among blacks, who preferred the Massachusetts senator over Bush, 69 percent to 18 percent.

The group's poll before the 2000 election found Gore with a 74 percent to 9 percent lead over Bush.

The poll of 1,642 adults was conducted between Sept. 15 and Oct. 10, four days before the third and final presidential debate, and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

The survey included two samples — a general population sample of 850 adults and one of 850 blacks. There were 58 black respondents whose answers were part of both samples.

Other polls have found a similar trend among blacks, including an AP-Ipsos poll in mid-September that found 80 percent of black registered voters backing Kerry, while 7 percent supported Bush. Gore won 90 percent of the black vote four years ago, according to exit polls.

While Kerry hopes to counter any erosion in support among blacks, he also needs a large turnout among black Democrats in order to win battleground states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The poll found Kerry receiving as much or more support than Gore among those age 18 to 25, those with less a high school diploma and those making $60,000 or less.

But Kerry had 49 percent support from black Christian conservatives, down from the 69 percent Gore enjoyed in 2000. Bush was at 36 percent among the group this year, more than tripling the 11 percent he got four years ago.

Republican officials say they are making a concerted effort this year to reach out to the black community. Campaign aides have cited Bush's support of school vouchers, public money that can be used to help pay private school tuition, and support of a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage as issues that might win him more black votes.

About 48 percent of blacks surveyed supported vouchers, the same percentage as in the general population, according to the Joint Center poll. About 46 percent of blacks said there should be no recognition of a gay couple's relationship, compared with 37 percent for the population overall.

If Bush really gets 18% of the black vote, double his 2000 total, he'll win in a landslide.

[reeds]

Dont forget the Muslim vote...I am serious...100k Muslims in Florida alone that didnt vote last election are all ready to go this election- to Kerry of course...if they get out around the whole country-Kerry takes it...

[Dooby]

Originally posted by: reeds
Dont forget the Muslim vote...I am serious...100k Muslims in Florida alone that didnt vote last election are all ready to go this election- to Kerry of course...if they get out around the whole country-Kerry takes it...

Reeds, next week, you might be looking for solace and reading websites about "Kerry's hidden ground game" being the key to victory. Hell, the Bush supporters might be saying hte same thing, but I doubt it. I remember there were folks that believed Dole was capable of the same thing.

Gore had an amazing groundgame in Florida in 2000, and no matter how you want to think of it, he came up just short. For Kerry to win in Florida, he has to do even better. And as I think I have said on this board for most of the year, I don't think there was a single Democrat vote in Florida that Gore didn't get. If Bush really does get 18% of the black vote, I don't see how Kerry can win.

BTW, 2000 census had the muslim population at .5% That is just over one million voting age muslims in the USA. And that includes non-citizens, as well as Nation of Islam, BTW. That number is not significant to hang your hat on.

[Mavdog]

Originally posted by: Dooby

If Bush really gets 18% of the black vote, double his 2000 total, he'll win in a landslide.

On the surface, you're correct.

Looking below the surface, there has been a concerted effort this year to register new minority voters and first time voters, especially in lower income areas. The above mentions that these voters remain solidly Democrat in their allegiance, it's the middle income Black Americans who appear to have switched to the Bush camp.

The increase in these new registrations (provided they do vote Kerry) will more than make up for the voters who have defected. I've read that in PA there are over 300,000 new registered voters, and those are those who the above poll suggest will back Kerry. In FL, the number of Black voters who switch will easily be replaced by the new registrations, and the key to the election there will be twofold IMHO: the Hispanic voters who are not very happy with the Bush policies on Cuba (restrictions on visits and $ sent there), and the elderly who may not be all that happy with the manner in which the new drug benefits were given.

What is true is this will be close. very, very close. Will one of them make a mistake over the next two weeks?

[Dooby]

May. MAY. MAY. <u>MAY.</u>

For every "may" for Bush, there is one for Kerry. You gotta go by what you see. Rumors in the waning days of a campaign rarely pan out. There is rarely "magic" waiting to happen.

[Lvubun1]

Like Dooby said, it all comes down to Ohio, Florida and PA. In the new polls released today for the first time in months somebody (Kerry) has opened up a lead outside the margin of error in PA. Which means Bush would need to take both Florida and Ohio, the polls today released for Ohio doesn't look good. From electoral-vote: "A new poll from the University of Cincinnati shows Kerry ahead in Ohio, 48% to 46%. Rasmussen's tracking poll shows Bush and Kerry tied at 47% each in Ohio, the first time Bush has not led there for weeks. ABC News says its Kerry 50%, Bush 47%, but Fox News says it is the other way: Kerry 45% and Bush 47%." They base their map on the most recent poll not the average, in this case that being the Fox News. If they did the average, Ohio would be blue state making the count Kerry 311 Bush 227 so once again, it comes down to whoever wins 2 out of 3.

As for Nevada, as a Nevadian I too never thought it would be in play, but after Bush's flipflop on Yucca mountain it somewhat is, though I still believe Bush will win.

[reeds]

bush flip flopping? Your kidding me? dont say that in this forum..you may be called a moron or a know nothing..

Good to see Kerry is MORE than holding his own...

[kg_veteran]

Originally posted by: reeds
bush flip flopping? Your kidding me? dont say that in this forum..you may be called a moron or a know nothing..

What does this have to do with political polls, reeds? Stay on topic.

[reeds]

flip flopping has been a huge topic in this forum- when Kerry does it anyway..I guess when Bush does, its a non-issue? What a surprise

[kg_veteran]

Talk about it all you want, just do it in a thread where flip-flopping is the topic.

[Drbio]

2004 Presidential Race - 3 Way
Poll Date Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo Spread

RCP Average 10/14 - 10/20 48.6% 45.5% 1.4% Bush +3.1
Zogby (1212 LV) 10/18 - 10/20 46% 45% 1% Bush +1
TIPP (792 LV) 10/17 - 10/20 48% 45% 2% Bush +3
Marist (772 LV w/leaners) 10/17 - 10/19 49% 48% 1% Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post* (1248 LV) 10/17 - 10/19 50% 47% 1% Bush +3
FOX News (1000 LV) 10/17 - 10/18 49% 42% 2% Bush +7
Pew Research (1070 LV) 10/15 - 10/19 47% 47% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (LV w/leaners) 10/16 - 10/18 48% 48% 1% TIE
Harris (820 LV)** 10/14 - 10/17 49.5% 44.5% 1% Bush +5
CBS News (678 LV) 10/14 - 10/17 47% 45% 2% Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 52% 44% 1% Bush +8
Time (865 LV w/leaners) 10/14 - 10/15 48% 47% 3% Bush +1
Newsweek (880 LV) 10/14 - 10/15 50% 44% 1% Bush +6


From RCP.....Bush leads in every major poll with 2 tied as of today.

[reeds]

Those 5 states (not NM) that is for all the marbles. And what do you know, those were the 5 closest states 4 years ago. I don't expect Bush to win PA. I like Bush's chances in Wisconsin.

again- Bush will not Carry Wisconsin...we are too smart up here

[MavKikiNYC]

Something for Everyone.

Campaign Journal
By: Al Hunt

Polls Offer Conflicting Signals
About Crucial Voter Blocs

Kerry Has Slight Edge Among Catholics
But Bush Leads With Married Women
October 21, 2004
The two presidential candidates' standing among closely watched swing groups is just as confusing and conflicting as the electorate at large.

Five groups -- Catholics, the Midwest, independents, older voters and married women -- should provide a good indicator of how this tight presidential race is leaning. But judging from the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, which shows a tie overall among likely voters, there are wide swings in a few of these blocs from a month ago, cutting both ways.

One caveat: The margin of error in this poll, which is 3% overall, is greater among the smaller subgroups. With that in mind, here is the breakdown two weeks out:

CATHOLICS: John Kerry is the first Catholic presidential candidate in 44 years. He also is the subject of intense criticism from conservative Catholics for his pro-choice stance on abortion and espousal of embryonic stem-cell research. In the latest survey, Sen. Kerry has a one-point edge among Catholic voters, about matching Al Gore's showing four years ago, but a slight slip from his standing in September.

Catholics, who comprise about a quarter of the electorate, are strikingly similar to other voters on the economy and Iraq, and a little more negative about the job President Bush is doing. But on social-cultural issues, they differ from the church's leadership. A clear majority oppose a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, a decidedly more tolerant view than non-Catholics. And they support embryonic stem-cell research by an overwhelming margin.

INDEPENDENTS: With voters of both parties prepared to vote overwhelmingly this year for their nominee, this 20% slice of the electorate should be crucial. Currently, Mr. Bush enjoys a 46% to 41% advantage, with Ralph Nader at 4%, although other polls have shown the Democratic nominee doing better with these voters. Predictably, there are more undecideds among independents than among party-affiliated voters. Mr. Bush has widened his lead a little bit from a month ago and from the margin he enjoyed over Al Gore in 2000.

"If Bush continues to do this well with independents, he wins," suggests Bill McInturff, a Republican, who with Peter Hart, a Democrat, conducts the WSJ/NBC News poll. Mr. Kerry has actually shown some improvement with this group's view of him -- as commander-in-chief, for example -- but Mr. Bush still does a little better on these types of questions.

MIDWEST: If independents are an important barometer politically, then regionally, close presidential elections usually are decided in America's heartland. And here is where it gets confusing in this poll. In the Midwest, Sen. Kerry now is leading 51% to 43%. In both last month's survey and four years ago, this region went for George Bush.

Bill McInturff explains that the current survey shows a larger-than-expected Democratic sample in the Midwest: "If that's real, it'd be a real concern for Republicans," he added, though he questions whether that will be the case on Election Day.

MARRIED WOMEN: This group has been Sen. Kerry's Achilles' heel. Normally, a Democratic candidate would hope to break even with these voters. But last month, apparently reflecting concerns about security and terrorism, married women gave the president a 15-point advantage. Sen. Kerry has reduced that to 10 points in the latest WSJ/NBC poll but probably has to do better to win on Nov. 2.

The poll shows an interesting dichotomy between the views of married and single women. When asked which matters more to them in this election, terrorism and values or health care and the economy, single women, by a sizeable margin, answer health care and the economy. But among married women, terrorism and values run 12 points ahead of jobs and health care.

SENIORS: This, too, is a problem for the Democratic nominee, according to the latest poll. Last time, Al Gore narrowly carried voters 65 years and older. But in this month's poll, George Bush is running ahead with these seniors 51% to 45%, although the elderly subgroup in this poll is more Republican than usually is the case.

John Kerry is hammering away at Social Security and Medicare in the hopes of turning this around. But Mr. McInturff notes Mr. Bush has several plusses with these seniors. They agree with him more than his opponent on cultural issues like gay marriage, and have become decidedly more optimistic about the situation in Iraq. Still, he adds, "In swing states, seniors are very much up for grabs."

* * *
PURPLE STATES: Are we headed for a redux of Florida 2000?

As of today, incredibly, it isn't implausible. Two Florida polls came out Wednesday, one showing President Bush ahead, the other showing Sen. Kerry up slightly. Each campaign maintains that its internal polling shows their candidate with a small advantage.

Both Republicans and Democrats are pouring unprecedented resources into the Sunshine State. Both did a better-than-usual job registering new voters, and both presidential and vice-presidential candidates are spending so much time in Florida they almost qualify as residents.

In short, all signs point to something like the 2000 Florida race, which, amid great controversy, George Bush officially won by 537 votes. Moreover, even before the election this time, there already are charges about voting irregularities and ballot problems.

Geoff Garin, a Democratic polltaker, sees the race in Florida basically "dead even." He suspects it will be decided by which side does a better job of getting out its base on Election Day. It is important, he says, for the Democrats to turn out the African-American vote in even bigger numbers than last time, when black voters made up an estimated 10% to 15% of the total. He also notes the importance of the senior vote in Florida, and says reports of Bush administration plans to partially privatize Social Security in a second term, and the controversial new Medicare prescription-drug plan, are plusses for the Democratic ticket.

Mr. McInturff agrees that the African-American turnout will be crucial -- "the difference between 9% and 12% could be enormous." He thinks that the Republicans have done as good a job in Florida as anywhere in reaching their base and likely will turn out their voters in suburban and rural strongholds.

Both parties agree that the Latino vote also is hugely important in Florida, where it is unique. Unlike many Hispanics, Cuban-Americans usually vote heavily Republican, something the Bush campaign is certainly counting on this time.

Sergio Bendixen, Miami-based pollster for the New Democrat Network, pegs the Hispanic vote in the state at 13%, with a little more than half of that Cuban-Americans. He suspects President Bush will do as well, perhaps a tad better, than last time, winning the Cuban-American vote by at least 3-to-1 and getting a third or more of other Hispanics. "[Florida Gov.] Jeb Bush has made tremendous gains for the Republicans in the Hispanic community," Mr. Bendixen, a Democrat, notes.

Of course, this comes against the backdrop of the historic controversy following the 2000 election in Florida. A Mason-Dixon poll of Floridians this week showed that almost one-third of voters in the state didn't think the balloting would proceed fairly, and only a little more than 40% were confident that their vote would be counted properly.

* * *
SHORT TAKES: Some factoids from this week's Wall Street Journal/NBC News national poll: More than half of African-Americans think eligible voters will be prevented from casting their ballots, while only about a third of whites hold this view. ...Young voters 18 to 34 years old oppose a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage by 48% to 44%, while seniors decisively favor it; it's strongly supported in the South and opposed in the Northeast, with the rest of the country split.

[jacktruth]

Updated poll numbers:
(From RCP)

B52% K46% Bush +6 CNN/USAT/Gallup(1195 LV) 10/22 - 10/24
B46% K48% Kerry +2 Rasmussen (3,000 LV) 10/22 - 10/24
B48% K41% Bush +7 TIPP (792 LV)* 10/21 - 10/24

An interesting note is the Rasmussen poll which has Kerry up for the first time in a very long time. Other polls are also trending toward Kerry. However, battleground polls are still pretty much deadlocked. I thought it was interesting that Zogby has Kerry up by 4 with a 3 MoE in Colorado and a report today has Kerry basically pulling out of Colorado. Zogby is known for how bad he blew the 02 mid-term election polls.

[jacktruth]

I also found this interesting page discussing the Poll results of 2000.

NCPP