RC must really think Collison sucks

[grndmstr_c]

Okay, was just looking at Hollinger's projected playoff probabilities, and this, IMO, is all you need to know to decide whether you trust that model's current projection that Dallas has an 11.4% chance of making the postseason: it also projects 19-22 as the Mavs' record over the second half of the season. Believe both or believe neither.

[BGMaverick9]

Originally Posted by MaverickOutlaw

A lot of this has to do with Cuban becoming a penny pincher and letting Mavs key parts escape Mav town.

A new angle to the discussion!!

[grndmstr_c]

Okay, was playing around with this playoff odds issue a bit more, and decided do a little modeling using Hollinger's playoff odds and power rankings to try and generate some guesses about what Dallas' actual probability of making the playoffs is right now.

The approach was pretty simple, take Hollinger's posted playoff probabilities and model them as a function of each team's: 1) Rating, from Hollinger's espn power rankings, 2) win percentage (technically odds or log odds) to date, and 3) conference, west vs east (conceived as a simple way to get at likely strength of schedule and quality of competition). The goal was to generate a model for approximating Hollinger's playoff odds that could be used to generate new guesses for different (novel) combinations of predictors. For Joshi and anyone else who cares, I used generalized additive models with a beta distribution for the response variable.

Once the models had been fit (and the fits were pretty good; e.g., fitted playoff probabilities for the Mavs under the models hovered ~ 10%, whereas Hollinger's actual prediction was 11.4%), I generated predictions for Dallas given their current win odds and conference, but with ratings set equal to the ratings of each of the other 29 teams. The idea being to generate guesses that could be interpreted against the backdrop of comparative assessments of team strength.

In general terms, the results were as follows:

- If Dallas actual quality is on par with teams like GSW, Indiana and Chicago (minus Rose, of course), then Dallas' probability of making the playoffs as of right now as predicted by the meta-models is something in the neighborhood of 35%-45%.

- If Dallas actual quality is on par with Brooklyn and Denver, then Dallas' probability of making the playoffs is in the 45%-55% range.

- If Dallas actual quality is on par with Memphis or NYK, then Dallas probability of making the playoffs is in the 55%-65% range.

There's an obvious criticism of those projections, and that is that they're based on combinations of predictors that are bivariate outliers with respect to the training data set. But since there's not really anything that can be done about that...

[markus1234]

Hollinger's projections do not take injuries into account.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by markus1234

Hollinger's projections do not take injuries into account.

That's pretty much the whole reason for the exercise.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

That said, I don't know when the last team in the West clinched a playoff spot with 40 wins in a 82-game season.

In 1997, the Clippers snuck into the 8th spot with a record of 36-46. The Suns were the #7 seed at 40-42.

There, I found myself useful for something.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Let's assume Roddy sucks (I don't think that's quite true, though he's certainly disappointing). That's not the question. And the question isn't even: Does he suck more than Mike James?

The real question is: Does Roddy suck so much more than Mike James--i.e., is the gap so big--that James should play over Roddy in a season where the Mavs are probably not going to make the playoffs and are trying to figure out the future of the franchise, even though Roddy is young and has at least some upside, whereas James is near retirement age and will likely only decline from here?

That's the question we should be asking.

The Mavs are trying to make the playoffs and be as good as they can be.

[grndmstr_c]

Mike hasn't at all convinced me that he's capable of doing more to help this team than Booby. I'm not really opposed to him getting the backup point guard minutes right now, though, because: 1) he also hasn't conclusively demonstrated that he's less capable, and 2) the Mavs are on a tight schedule for evaluating him and deciding whether he's worth guaranteed money for the rest of the year, and they need to play him to give themselves the best chance at making the right decision there.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Mike hasn't at all convinced me that he's capable of doing more to help this team than Booby. I'm not really opposed to him getting the backup point guard minutes right now, though, because: 1) he also hasn't conclusively demonstrated that he's less capable, and 2) the Mavs are on a tight schedule for evaluating him and deciding whether he's worth guaranteed money for the rest of the year, and they need to play him to give themselves the best chance at making the right decision there.

I understand that they need to see what he is capable of but I've personally seen enough. I'm not interested in him over what we have. I'm not interested in anyone else that is available either. If we don't make a trade to upgrade, I'd just roll with what we got. Let them make or break themselves and our season.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I understand that they need to see what he is capable of but I've personally seen enough. I'm not interested in him over what we have. I'm not interested in anyone else that is available either. If we don't make a trade to upgrade, I'd just roll with what we got. Let them make or break themselves and our season.

If I knew that neither DC or Booby were going to be traded, I'd have seen enough, too. But I have to think there's at least a chance that, for example, one of them gets shipped out in a trade that doesn't bring another point guard back the Mavs' way, and if something like that happens and the Mavs are looking like playoff material I'll be just fine with seeing James get the backup point guard minutes ahead of DoJo.

[G-Man]

I agree you throw out all the predictions, as they are based on the play of the Mavs either without Dirk, or with him playing poorly. If Dirk was up to par, we certainly beat OKC, and win most of those overtime games we lost. So going forward, I expect a much better Mavs team. And if they can trade for a better point guard, they will make the payoffs. Period.

I love Collison's play, but he is not a pass first point guard, and is not proficient running the pick and roll with Dirk. That is the one thing Mike James can do. He gets Dirk shots, and if not, gets himself wide open. Unfortunately, when he is wide open, he shoots, poorly. If he had hit one of those 3's, this thread would not have been started.

James playing in crunch time was not so much a statement on Collison as a test to see if James can help this team. I don't think he can, but he shows how much a better PG could. Lacking that, I'm hoping that in this week with 4 days off, Rick can teach Mayo how to run the P & R with Dirk. Since 2004, this team has closed games with a Dirk-Jet 2 man game. We desperately need someone to fill the Jet role at the end of games. It ain't James or Roddy or DoJo. I have some hopes it could be Collison or Mayo, but I ain't seen it yet.

We need a trade.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by G-Man

I agree you throw out all the predictions, as they are based on the play of the Mavs either without Dirk, or with him playing poorly. If Dirk was up to par, we certainly beat OKC, and win most of those overtime games we lost. So going forward, I expect a much better Mavs team. And if they can trade for a better point guard, they will make the payoffs. Period.

I love Collison's play, but he is not a pass first point guard, and is not proficient running the pick and roll with Dirk. That is the one thing Mike James can do. He gets Dirk shots, and if not, gets himself wide open. Unfortunately, when he is wide open, he shoots, poorly. If he had hit one of those 3's, this thread would not have been started.

James playing in crunch time was not so much a statement on Collison as a test to see if James can help this team. I don't think he can, but he shows how much a better PG could. Lacking that, I'm hoping that in this week with 4 days off, Rick can teach Mayo how to run the P & R with Dirk. Since 2004, this team has closed games with a Dirk-Jet 2 man game. We desperately need someone to fill the Jet role at the end of games. It ain't James or Roddy or DoJo. I have some hopes it could be Collison or Mayo, but I ain't seen it yet.

We need a trade.

What evidence is everyone seeing that James can run a PnR with Dirk effectively? The second quarter against Houston? I seem to remember a couple successful ones in that stretch. Other than that, I remember a lot of PnR's where James' defender goes so far under he's standing in the paint, making it impossible to get Dirk the ball with an advantage.

The ONLY thing I've seen James do better than Collison consistently is kick out to an open shooter after penetrating into the lane. That's it.

[markus1234]

Spot on, G-Man.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by G-Man

I agree you throw out all the predictions, as they are based on the play of the Mavs either without Dirk, or with him playing poorly. If Dirk was up to par, we certainly beat OKC, and win most of those overtime games we lost. So going forward, I expect a much better Mavs team. And if they can trade for a better point guard, they will make the payoffs. Period.

I love Collison's play, but he is not a pass first point guard, and is not proficient running the pick and roll with Dirk. That is the one thing Mike James can do. He gets Dirk shots, and if not, gets himself wide open. Unfortunately, when he is wide open, he shoots, poorly. If he had hit one of those 3's, this thread would not have been started.

James playing in crunch time was not so much a statement on Collison as a test to see if James can help this team. I don't think he can, but he shows how much a better PG could. Lacking that, I'm hoping that in this week with 4 days off, Rick can teach Mayo how to run the P & R with Dirk. Since 2004, this team has closed games with a Dirk-Jet 2 man game. We desperately need someone to fill the Jet role at the end of games. It ain't James or Roddy or DoJo. I have some hopes it could be Collison or Mayo, but I ain't seen it yet.

We need a trade.

Yea. I don't see James successfully running the PnR with Dirk. In fact I thought Collison did a better job of it vs OKC.

If James nails that 3, (most) people would still understand that even tho he hit that shot...it's just not the shot you want, it was rushed. A good PG tries everything he can to get the Fn ball to the golden boy. Missing shots in that very type situation isn't going to be what gets you dismissed or land you on peoples bad side, it's missing Dirk. You have to get him the ball.

Only a basketball dummy would think the difference between that play (James' 3 launch at the end) being good or bad is whether or not the shot goes in.

[DGM]

Originally Posted by Aggie E

The Mike James show in crunchtime and OT. Yeah he made 1 3-pointer but he turned it over at least twice and then he took a 30 ft 3-pointer without ever passing the ball. Someone on the ESPN gameblog said it perfectly, " a gazzion-dollar payroll and a guy on a 10 day is running the show.... Yeah Jason Terry was not needed back and Roddy must be real steaming crap...

A guy on a 10 day takes that shot. Nothing to lose. He makes it and he's a hero. He misses and it's on RC. RC loves older players. He has no patience for young ones. James will continue to jack up shots. It's his chance for a lot of$$$. 10 days should not be rotation guys. They will screw the team to try to be a hero. James looked like Dojo. Shoot and don't pass to anyone.

[j0Shi]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Okay, was playing around with this playoff odds issue a bit more, and decided do a little modeling using Hollinger's playoff odds and power rankings to try and generate some guesses about what Dallas' actual probability of making the playoffs is right now.

The approach was pretty simple, take Hollinger's posted playoff probabilities and model them as a function of each team's: 1) Rating, from Hollinger's espn power rankings, 2) win percentage (technically odds or log odds) to date, and 3) conference, west vs east (conceived as a simple way to get at likely strength of schedule and quality of competition). The goal was to generate a model for approximating Hollinger's playoff odds that could be used to generate new guesses for different (novel) combinations of predictors. For Joshi and anyone else who cares, I used generalized additive models with a beta distribution for the response variable.

Once the models had been fit (and the fits were pretty good; e.g., fitted playoff probabilities for the Mavs under the models hovered ~ 10%, whereas Hollinger's actual prediction was 11.4%), I generated predictions for Dallas given their current win odds and conference, but with ratings set equal to the ratings of each of the other 29 teams. The idea being to generate guesses that could be interpreted against the backdrop of comparative assessments of team strength.

In general terms, the results were as follows:

- If Dallas actual quality is on par with teams like GSW, Indiana and Chicago (minus Rose, of course), then Dallas' probability of making the playoffs as of right now as predicted by the meta-models is something in the neighborhood of 35%-45%.

- If Dallas actual quality is on par with Brooklyn and Denver, then Dallas' probability of making the playoffs is in the 45%-55% range.

- If Dallas actual quality is on par with Memphis or NYK, then Dallas probability of making the playoffs is in the 55%-65% range.

There's an obvious criticism of those projections, and that is that they're based on combinations of predictors that are bivariate outliers with respect to the training data set. But since there's not really anything that can be done about that...

Nice work. I have my own adjusted efficiencies (still very raw and unfinished) and in the last 15 games since Dirk's return Mavs rank 11th at +3.38. Seasonal numbers have Utah at +3.44, Denver at +3.62 and Indiana at +3.66.

Would say something between Indiana and GSW 'feels' right, like 102 on the Hollinger rating.

[nowhereman]

From MacMahon

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/maver...arren-collison

“I’ll fight,” said Collison, who is on his third team in four seasons and will be a restricted free agent this summer. “I’ll keep fighting. I’m very resilient. And I’m understanding. If it’s not my time, or if coach goes in a different direction, then I understand that. I can only play hard for the minutes I get. … I sure believe when I get my opportunity again, I’m going to make sure that I make the most of my chances.”

Added Carlisle: “We were in here Saturday practicing and I talked to him about end-of-the-game stuff and I said this is something that’s going to be on me to decide who finishes. Keep doing the good things you’re doing and you’re going to be in these situations a lot. I just know that. And sure enough, that’s how it turned out on Sunday.”

While Carlisle’s commitment to Collison as a starter has wavered, the coach deserves credit for Collison’s development this season.

Carlisle has invested countless hours in working individually with Collison, as well as his 25-year-old backcourt partner O.J. Mayo. The guards spend most mornings getting grilled by Carlisle in film sessions or on the floor shooting with him.

Dirk Nowitzki has made a point several times to mention that he's proud of the way the young guards have responded to Carlisle's hard coaching. As Collison said, players with thick skin prosper under Carlisle.

“We’ve had a lot of tough love from coach,” Collison said. “Coach has been in our face from Day 1. It’s all about a learning experience. He just wants us to get better. He just wants us to continue to improve. Rick is going to tell us like it is. He’s going to be honest with us. It’s the reason why we’re improving every day.”

[BGMaverick9]

Talked about it on MOR and I think it's a matter of development with the tough love on guys like Collison and Mayo. People have openly wondered why guys like Kaman, Vince or Troy Murphy got a pass with their decisions and every decision made by Collison and Mayo are put under the microscope.

The fact that they are athletic guards does play a factor, Collison and Mayo are being evaluated as potential long term pieces while the other pieces are seen as more of a short-term fix. If those two are going to be fixtures for the future, Carlisle is going to want them to handle their business the way he believes is the best way. It's like a boss with a pool of employees. The slackers will slack and valuable contributors will draw the attention from the boss.

I will say this about Darren, he's been incredibly optimistic, confident and open-minded any time I've spoke to him after a game. Even when they were down and nearly out of the mix, he remained confident that they'd turn it around. He's stressed whether you look at it as an individual or as a team, you can't get too high or get too low. You just have to keep a level head through the rigors of the season.

[Bayliss]

Carlisle just wants quiet decisiveness and control out of his players. Collison just plays brain dead at the end of games. Scared to shoot. Tentative to pass. Etc. Hopefully the Orl.game gave Collison some confidence tp be decisive.

[The Ghost of Championship]

Have I mentioned that I've seen Collison play more games than anyone besides his coaches, and that he would be so frustrating that fans should hate him before he ever played a game?

Would you like to know how "Life After Collison" is accomplished? I will expound only if my insight is going to be appreciated and not trolled by the old guard who seriously needs to re-evaluate their contributions to this forum.

[dude1394]

Carlisle is easily the smartest thing cubes/Donnie have done on this team. I hope e is here a long, long tie.

[dirt_dobber]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Carlisle is easily the smartest thing cubes/Donnie have done on this team. I hope e is here a long, long tie.

Amen.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by The Ghost of Championship

Have I mentioned that I've seen Collison play more games than anyone besides his coaches, and that he would be so frustrating that fans should hate him before he ever played a game?

Would you like to know how "Life After Collison" is accomplished? I will expound only if my insight is going to be appreciated and not trolled by the old guard who seriously needs to re-evaluate their contributions to this forum.

Go forth...tell.