2024 Playoffs Round 2: Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

[Melonhead]

Here we go, the real challenge starts. I guess my one concern is how physical will the refs allow and will it be one sided.

We need Luka to be Luka offensively if the Mavs are going to pull this off.

Maxi is expected out for the series, THJ should be back. Gafford is gonna thrive let?s steal game 1.

Gm 1: Tuesday 8:30ct
Gm 2: Thursday 8:30ct
Gm 3: Saturday 2:30ct
Gm 4: Monday 8:30ct

[LukaMagic]

These are the top five Thunder producers. And they play the most minutes. All five appear capable of regularly scoring. That is very important for them that all five of them get on the scoring sheet. I think that all five of these players shoot threes. That is important for their set up.

Their centre is Holmgren and he is both 1. A FINESSE PLAYER aaaand 2. A ROOKIE. That is great news for Mavs. That can be exploited. Both Lively and Gafford can guard him. Aaand, both Lively and Gafford are surely stronger than him. That can surely be exploited offensively. I suspect both Lively and Gafford to have an easier job with Holmgren than they had with Zubac.

Those are their numbers in their last 4 games vs. Pelicans. Which is a series that they have swept.

They are a young team and this is their first time in the playoffs. Last year they were kicked out at the play-in stage. That is also an advantage for the Mavs. They haven't yet been tested in the playoffs, while Mavericks have both Luka and Kyrie who are players that have very much already been tested.

Mavericks must be seen as favorites going into this series. But the league prefers the OKC so that the refereeing standard will not be fair.

#5 Dort does not appear to have much of an inside game. Here, for example, a player with inside game would surely push it into the paint https://youtu.be/dZoXqU3TVeA?t=86. But he doesn't even think about that. And instead opts early for a pass for a three-pointer. Everyone can shoot, and they appear to spread the floor well.*
Also notice here how that Valiancunas is a VERY, VERY SLOW AND LUMBERING BIG. Dallas' bigs are better on their feet. But Holmgren will give them trouble. Holmgren will give ANYONE in the league such a trouble for a very long time to come (lol).
* Dort probably has some kind of inside game given his size and attributes. He might opt for this pass because this is how they play. Spread the floor, get the ball around to the open three point shooter. So he does it very quickly and absent much other thinking. Especially after a pump fake that has worked because that means that one of the defensive players dropped out.

#5 Dort appears to have a great pump fake. That he uses often. That makes it hard to guard when on the run. And he has a little bit of a different kinda shooting motion. Slow and therefore hard to time for a block. Unusual and atypical. And then he uses the pump fake so well. https://youtu.be/dZoXqU3TVeA?t=59

#5 Dort is a French Canadian of Haitian origin. From Montreal. Grew up playing street ball there.
Hence . s a v v y (Google Dictionary: "shrewdness and practical knowledge; the ability to make good judgements.") Physically, he is very limited. Only 1.93m. But very, very savvy as I've written above. Good pump fake. He is strong, but with that size that makes him still very, very limited. Not fast. But good judgments. He is probably very comfortable in the post but in a specific isolation.

#2 SGA is good. He is their best player. He appears to be able to score in many ways. Very tricky and persistent sort of a player. But he has neither swagger, nor coolness about himself. Like those things are foreign to him. And that's what Kyrie Irving needs to show him in this series. I think Kyrie Irving could have a great impact on this series by taking care of SGA. I think Kyrie could probably start guarding him. I think that could be a good match-up for the Mavs. Kyrie is a great defender and this match-up could give him focus.

https://youtu.be/5yE2j2jp5_4 Notice that this game Kleber started and notice how the Mavs had a great start. That was the case because of his great movement and defending against the OKC team that appears to spread the floor very well. And Kleber can shoot 3s too. Kleber is a big loss. I think this was the very first game played by Gafford and PJ.

[BPo001]

Our bigs needs to feast. Glad to see they were working on bully ball in practice with Tyson Chandler. Chet doesn?t have the mass to keep Gafford off the boards.

[saclare]

Mavs have a massive advantage in rebounding in this matchup. Have to keep up the defensive intensity and bring a relentlessness to the boards. I think OKC will falter offensively this series if the Mavs can keep those two keys at full throttle.

OKC is bottom of the barrel for offensive rebounding but in no small part due to good shooting. Need to hit them hard and grab at minimum one game from them to get HCA.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

This series is going to depend on whether the refs allow Dort to just foul Luka without getting any calls. This whole playoffs has been wildly inconsistent with such things.

[ShaggyDirk]

We hopefully can get over the afternoon game slumps. Maybe Saturday afternoon is better than lazy Sunday's.

[purplefrog]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

This series is going to depend on whether the refs allow Dort to just foul Luka without getting any calls. This whole playoffs has been wildly inconsistent with such things.

If Dort gets away with "murder' then the Mavs have to retaliate by bullying Holmgren and SGA. Tit for tat. Physical play in the playoffs is par for the course. Mavs cannot let Dort/OKC push them around.

[SMC0007]

Lu Dort is going to play Luka dirty. He typically does and theres proof of it. The refs are definitely going to allow it so its another hurdle we have to get over. Im sure Jeaen and Lu take turns guarding him as much as possible.

I agree that we HAVE to go at both Shai and Chet even harder than anything they do to Luka. We need to win the physical battle

[washedklean77]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

This whole playoffs has been wildly inconsistent with such things.

Lest not forget how wildly inconsistent the Mavs have been thus far in the playoffs as this includes laying 2 eggs in the first round. Thankfully they overcame in 6 games, but digging 20-30 point holes in the first half won't fly against the Thunder.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by washedklean77

Lest not forget how wildly inconsistent the Mavs have been thus far in the playoffs as this includes laying 2 eggs in the first round. Thankfully they overcame in 6 games, but digging 20-30 point holes in the first half won't fly against the Thunder.

Those were the only two times they played poorly though. The glass was far more glass full than empty in the first round.

Kidd can't seem to get them ready for Sunday afternoon games.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

This series is going to depend on whether the refs allow Dort to just foul Luka without getting any calls. This whole playoffs has been wildly inconsistent with such things.

I hope the team is having conversations about this. Because Luka can NOT lose his head like he?s prone to doing. We just saw what happened to Jamal Murray throwing a fit because they were fouling him but not getting called

The other part of the conversation is being just as physical vs OKC if not more. Be the team that sets the tone for physicality.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

It will also come down to the centers. We need that regular season Gafford and even more from Lively. They have to dominate down low.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

It will also come down to the centers. We need that regular season Gafford and even more from Lively. They have to dominate down low.

That's the key to the series IMO. If our bigs can bully them in the paint, we'll win. If they can't, we won't.

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

That's the key to the series IMO. If our bigs can bully them in the paint, we'll win. If they can't, we won't.

The center tandem each played well vs OKC in the season. Matchups

I think gafford turned a corner towards the end of that Clippers series.

I think mavs win this thing in 6 if both bigs can stay out of foul trouble.

I don't see how OKC keeps them both off the glass and I think we'll see them both become lob threats again throughout this series

[SMC0007]

Interested to see how coaches have the guys matched up on defense and how quick we will be to make necessary adjustments on both sides

[Melonhead]

I know everything will have to click for this series to go the right way, but it?s important the Mavs play big and assert themselves defensively. If Kidd tries to throw Powell out there (he?s mentioned it with Maxi out), im not sure if that will bode well.

Fun fact: Tony Brothers is reffing tonight, and he has a zero tolerance for Luka complaints. I?ll be shocked if he doesn?t get a T tonight.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

I know everything will have to click for this series to go the right way, but it?s important the Mavs play big and assert themselves defensively. If Kidd tries to throw Powell out there (he?s mentioned it with Maxi out), im not sure if that will bode well.

Fun fact: Tony Brothers is reffing tonight, and he has a zero tolerance for Luka complaints. I?ll be shocked if he doesn?t get a T tonight.

I?m shocked Luka doesn?t already have a tech for game 1

Mavs are 0-1 against Brothers and his horse shit calls in game 4 lost us the game at home

He also has a crazy home win % of 64%. Dude hates the Mavs/Luka and he gives home cooking like nothing else

[EricaLubarsky]

I think we can pull this off, but if we lose there are some things to think about

1) OKC was 2nd best in the league at home at 33-8. They were tied with Denver (who has an altitude advantage) and only behind the Celtics at home.
2) HCA is real and gives them about a +4% to win historically
3) Home teams in this playoff are 8-0 in game 1, even if two teams (Pacers/Mavs) were able to overcome HCA in their first-round series. A home team has not lost a game one once this year.
4) Mavs are +4.5. We are the underdogs
5) Our refs suck balls. Mavs are 0-1 with Brothers. Ben Taylor is crooked. The good news is we may get our games with them out of the way in a game we will probably lose. Still sucks that our officiating crew is so bad in such a big game.
6) Brothers far surpasses the league average by awarding the home team with favorable calls 64% of the time. Taylor 57%. Forte 58%, Cutler 56%.
7) Cutler calls 58% of his calls against the road team. Forte 53%. Taylor 51%
8) Kyrie is 32. Luka's knees are 45. Thunder are 23.4 years old on average.
9) OKC has had eight days of rest. Mavs just three.

[blessednegr0]

I am ready! Let's bring the noise!

[BPo001]

Let?s hope those 8 days rest means OKC comes out rusty, and Mavs can get up early. Isn?t MVP announced tonight too?

[SMC0007]

Im going to refrain as long as possible from ref bashing.

[EricaLubarsky]

Just dont dig a 30pt first half deficit for the third time in seven games

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Let?s hope those 8 days rest means OKC comes out rusty, and Mavs can get up early. Isn?t MVP announced tonight too?

I want to beat OKC at their best. All things being equal, I think our best is better than theirs.

I'm much more interested in if the Mavs can live up to half of their potential. Mavs have so far been WAY less than their best.

I just want a good Mavs game even if its a loss.

[EricaLubarsky]

Luka hitting threes is welcome

[EricaLubarsky]

Holmgren is not a great matchup for Gafford.

Lively so much longer and more mobile

[EricaLubarsky]

Kyrie 3TO in 5min

Fuck

[EricaLubarsky]

Luka limping

[SMC0007]

Intentional trip.

[Melonhead]

Dort straight up trips Luka. Perfect

[EricaLubarsky]

Dort injuring Luka is about what I would predict

[JTmoney2424]

Luka keeping them close offensively. Gonna need Ky to start playing like it?s the second half.

[EricaLubarsky]

Kyrie 0pts, 0reb, 4TO in 7.5min is one of the worst stats I will ever see

[SMC0007]

God. Kyrie

[EricaLubarsky]

Greennnnnnn

[LukaMagic]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Kyrie 3TO in 5min

Fuck

1st quarter. Back to square one with him.

Can't . start . games .

[EricaLubarsky]

Luka 1-1 from three

Then 0-3

[EricaLubarsky]

Gafford needs to force the issue by going for the dunk. He'll get the FT 80% of the time

[EricaLubarsky]

Refs making SGA a star

[JTmoney2424]

Be nice if for once Ky could start off a game hot. Not only isn?t he not hitting shots but those 4 turnovers are killers.

[EricaLubarsky]

15' from the basket and a dribble and 2.5 steps and it's a shooting foul?