Playoff Matchups

[nowhereman]

Broader than just the 'first round' thread, with the Spurs in a tailspin with Duncan out and the Lakers closing in, how do you guys both want, and foresee, the top 3 shaking out? The Mavs have a real chance of getting the 2 spot in the West if they can win out/win 2 more games than the Lakers. But almost as likely, the Lakers, holding the tie breaker with the Spurs, may catch up to them down the stretch and force a Dallas/SA matchup in Round 2 if both teams get that far, and may also force LA into a tough Denver or OKC matchup in Round 2 (and I think Denver is just as scary right now as the Mavs or SA are).

So who are you rooting for between LA and San Antonio in their game? And how does the bottom of the bracket affect your view? I assume everyone's angling to play New Orleans. I'd really like to avoid Memphis if possible, moreso than Portland. Where do you guys stand on this? Where do you expect the Mavs to end up and what do you think the best realistic scenario is?

[nowhereman]

Also, currently

San Antonio - 57-17
tiebreaker over Dallas
4 home, 4 away
4 games against teams > .500
Remaining Opponents WP: 55%


L.A. Lakers - 53-20
5 home, 4 away
5 games against teams >.500
Remaining Opponents WP - 56%


Dallas - 52-21
4 home, 5 away
5 games against teams >.500
Remaining Opponents WP - 53%


Portland - 43-31
5 home, 3 away
5 games against teams >.500
Remaining Opponents WP - 57%


New Orleans - 42-32
6 home, 2 away
5 games against teams >.500
Remaining Opponents WP - 55%


Memphis - 41-33
5 home, 3 away
3 games against teams >.500
Remaining Opponents WP - 43%


looks like Memphis has a lot of ground it can make up, and NO might be able to keep winning with alot of home games left. It's gonna be a dogfight for that 6 spot. Houston is 38-35 right now and might be able to slip in, but i doubt it's gonna get in any higher than 7, and if they take anyone's spot it would be NO's as a result of their team taking a tailspin.

[nowhereman]

Tiebreaker Rules from NBA.com
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html

TIEBREAKER BASIS:
(-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(3) Division won-lost percentage
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(7) Net Points, all games


Playoff Tie-Break Procedures

Teams 1 to 4 in each conference are the three division winners and the team with the next best regular-season record, with the seeding of these four teams determined by regular-season record. The playoffs seedings of Teams 5 to 8 are based upon regular-season record. Ties are broken pursuant to the rules set forth below.

Ties for playoff positions (including division winners) will be broken utilizing the criteria set forth in subparagraph a. below (in the case of ties involving two teams) and subparagraph b. below (in the case of ties involving more than two teams), and the guidelines set forth in subparagraph c. below.

a. Two Teams Tied
(1) Better winning percentage in games against each other.
(2) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if tied teams are in same division).
(3) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
(4) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
(5) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in opposite conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
(6) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”).


b. More Than Two Teams Tied
(1) Better winning percentage in all games among the tied teams.
(2) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if all tied teams are in the same division).
(3) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
(4) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
(5) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”).

c. Guidelines For Applying Tie-Break Criteria. The following guidelines shall be used when applying the above criteria to break ties for playoff positions:

(1) (a) Since the three division winners are guaranteed a spot in the top four, ties to determine the division winners must be broken before any other ties.
(b) When a tie must be broken to determine a division winner, the results of the tie-break shall be used to determine only the division winner and its playoff position, not any other playoff position(s).

(2) If a tie involves more than two teams, the tie-break criteria in subparagraph b. shall be applied in the order set forth therein until the first to occur of the following:
(a) Each of the tied teams has a different winning percentage or point differential under the applicable tiebreak criterion (a “complete” breaking of the tie). In this circumstance, the team with the best winning percentage or point differential under the criterion will be awarded the best playoff position, the team with the next-best winning percentage or point differential will be awarded the next-best playoff position, and so on, and no further application of the tie-break criteria will be required.
~OR~
(b) One or more (but not all) of the tied teams has a different winning percentage or point differential under the applicable tie-break criterion (a “partial” breaking of the tie). In this circumstance: (x) any team(s) that performed better under the applicable criterion than any other team(s) will be awarded a higher playoff position than such other team(s); and (y) teams that had equivalent performance under the applicable criterion will remain tied, and such remaining tie(s) will be broken by applying, from the beginning, the criteria in subparagraph a.(1)-(6) above (for any remaining tie involving only two teams) or subparagraph b.(1)-(5) above (for any remaining tie involving more than two teams) and the guidelines set forth in this subparagraph c.

(3) If application of the criteria in subparagraph a. or b. does not result in the breaking of a tie, the playoff positions of the tied teams will be determined by a random drawing.

d. Home Court Advantage:
For purposes of home court advantage, ties will be broken pursuant to the procedures used for breaking two-team ties for playoff position.

[Kidd Karma]

NO might actually drop out all together, but if anyone can keep them from losiing ground, it's an MVP performance from Chris Paul. The way the Spurs are breaking down, who knows, they might be the easier of the two....then again, it may just be an oil change for TP, and Manu.

[xrobx]

here's a really good place to look at this information

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/playoffmatchups

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

Houston is 38-35 right now and might be able to slip in, but i doubt it's gonna get in any higher than 7, and if they take anyone's spot it would be NO's as a result of their team taking a tailspin.

They're 39-35 after tonight's win, just 2 games down from Memphis and 3 down from NO, but only 8 left to play... Even if NO bombs, the 8th seed is probably about as high as Houston can hope for at this point.

[nowhereman]

Best case scenario: Win out and get that 2 seed, face New Orleans in Round 1, and that would mean get LA in Round 2 with HCA, and hope for SA to get Portland and LA to get Memphis?

[Rick41]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

Best case scenario: Win out and get that 2 seed, face New Orleans in Round 1, and that would mean get LA in Round 2 with HCA, and hope for SA to get Portland and LA to get Memphis?

As much as that is appealing, I highly doubt it will pan out that way.

[mavs777]

If the choices are between 1 and 2 I would prefer 2

1. SA
2. Dallas
3. LA
4. OKC
5. Portland
6. Denver
7. NO
8. Memphis

1. LA
2. SA
3. Dallas
4. OKC
5. Portland
6. Denver
7. NO
8. Memphis

I like our chances against SA without homecourt better than I do against LA with homecourt. And OKC/Portland could really give the Lakers a series and possibly even win

[xrobx]

Originally Posted by mavs777

If the choices are between 1 and 2 I would prefer 2

1. SA
2. Dallas
3. LA
4. OKC
5. Portland
6. Denver
7. NO
8. Memphis

1. LA
2. SA
3. Dallas
4. OKC
5. Portland
6. Denver
7. NO
8. Memphis

I like our chances against SA without homecourt better than I do against LA with homecourt. And OKC/Portland could really give the Lakers a series and possibly even win

this is assuming we get past denver in the first round, who have been one of the hottest teams.

[JamesVE]

I'm not really assuming we can get past anybody in the first round. Houston, maybe, even though the likelihood of us meeting is slim. The only other team I feel we can beat in any series is Portland (and with Aldridge likely averaging 30+ on us)

[nowhereman]

Houston lost tonight and is 3 games back in the loss column for the 8 spot. I think we can start writing the eulogy for their season.

[CadBane]

N.O. and Portland are now tied with Memphis only 1 GB. With no West, I think N.O. would be the most favorable matchup.

[xrobx]

Originally Posted by CadBane

N.O. and Portland are now tied with Memphis only 1 GB. With no West, I think N.O. would be the most favorable matchup.

agreed. if the season ended today, we'd have NO in the first round

[Budapest Maverick]

Yeah, i also want NO, if we can't play te Cavs.

[Mavs999]

I rather have Denver and OKC duke it out in the first round

[Underdog]

Well, 3rd seed it is...

[CadBane]

If Portland loses to OKC tonight, Portland, N.O., and Memphis will all be tied with 33 loses. Ideal situation (and lets be real, Mavs need as much help as possible to make it to the WCF), N.O. finishes with the 6 seed (if not them, Memphis), and L.A. passes S.A.

A N.O./Memphis and Portland/S.A. route would at least give us a tiny glimmer of hope.

[mavs777]

Not really surprised to see a bit of a letdown from L.A tonight, typical trap game after an emotional win.

[DMOC]

Uh ... no.

[xrobx]

lakers are only 1.5 games out of first, and they still play the spurs

they could catch them, and then we would get the spurs in the second round. sounds good to me

[dalger]

Avoiding the Lakers until the WCF would be a best-case scenario for us (or anyone else). The main reason is that Caron should be more likely to be ready in the conference finals than the 2nd round (that's of course presuming he'll be ready at some point, which is hardly a given). On top of that, Roddy could get more games under his belt before once again having to face the best team in the league. He didn't look ready for the test the last two times and more playing time could help him.

With that said, making it to the WCF will be tough enough anyway. The seven other playoff teams in our conference are too good to take anything for granted and really think about potential matchups in the 3rd round.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by dalger

Avoiding the Lakers until the WCF would be a best-case scenario for us (or anyone else). The main reason is that Caron should be more likely to be ready in the conference finals than the 2nd round (that's of course presuming he'll be ready at some point, which is hardly a given). On top of that, Roddy could get more games under his belt before once again having to face the best team in the league. He didn't look ready for the test the last two times and more playing time could help him.

With that said, making it to the WCF will be tough enough anyway. The seven other playoff teams in our conference are too good to take anything for granted and really think about potential matchups in the 3rd round.

Yeah, if we made it to the WCF, then that means we're already playing good enough basketball to take on the Lakers...

The same can't be said about the 2nd round (I'm thinking of our 1st round victory over the Spurs that was promptly followed by a Denver-administered trouncing...)

[dalger]

True, although the Spurs were without Manu in '09 and we had Josh Howard playing an outstanding series. Then, in the 2nd round, Josh's ankle killed him and the Nuggets were simply the better team that would have been hard to beat even with Josh.

I think that we could be good enough give any team in our conference a good series even without Butler, including San Antonio. The Lakers are the obvious exception.

[Bayliss]

Mavs need to worry about who they play in the first round long before anything else. And Memphis and Portland (the two most likely candidates at this point) are going to be **extremely** tough series against the Mavs.

In fact, if it comes down to a Dallas/Portland or Dallas/Mem first round series, I bet about have the media will pick the Mavs opponent. And unfortantely with past history, they'd probably be right....

[j0Shi]

Nah ... if we won't play Denver (and thats unlikely), I'm pretty convinced that we'll head to the Semis.

[mavs777]

Originally Posted by Bayliss

Mavs need to worry about who they play in the first round long before anything else. And Memphis and Portland (the two most likely candidates at this point) are going to be **extremely** tough series against the Mavs.

In fact, if it comes down to a Dallas/Portland or Dallas/Mem first round series, I bet about have the media will pick the Mavs opponent. And unfortantely with past history, they'd probably be right....

The Mavs don't need to worry about anyone they play, they need to worry about themselves and only themselves, us as fans can obviously worry.

[DavidDaMonkey]

I'm starting to think that:

1.Lakers
2.Mavs
3.Spurs

could be a very possible seeding.

[fluid.forty.one]

We have to win the playoff series against Portland. My life in blazerland is becoming unbearable right now.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

We have to win the playoff series against Portland. My life in blazerland is becoming unbearable right now.

Miracles happen. Ask Miami heat, and the Boston RedSox.

[nowhereman]

SA would have to lose the Laker game and at least one other game to drop to the two seed (assuming LA goes unbeaten the rest of the way). They have 5 games left

Tonight - @ ATL
Tomorrow - v. SAC
Saturday - v. UTAH
4/12 - @ LA
4/13 - @ PHX

[nowhereman]

The Mavs were never in the #1 seed race in the first place

[xrobx]

the spurs aren't going to lose the #1 seed.

i just hope we somehow win in the first round. after that, i don't even care. losing to the lakers or spurs would be an expected loss and there's no shame in that. i just don't want another first round embarrassment to a lower seeded team.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by xrobx

the spurs aren't going to lose the #1 seed.

i just hope we somehow win in the first round. after that, i don't even care. losing to the lakers or spurs would be an expected loss and there's no shame in that. i just don't want another first round embarrassment to a lower seeded team.

Agreed at this point, I just want to win series after series, regardless of matchups. We just have to become tougher.

[nowhereman]

Portland looks like it's going down at home against Golden State tonight, tying N.O. in the loss column. New Orleans has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Portland.

N.O. plays Memphis on the 10th, and then Dallas in their last game of the season. Think that might be one we tank so we can get them in Round 1?

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

Portland looks like it's going down at home against Golden State tonight, tying N.O. in the loss column. New Orleans has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Portland.

N.O. plays Memphis on the 10th, and then Dallas in their last game of the season. Think that might be one we tank so we can get them in Round 1?

I think I've heard this story before...

[EricaLubarsky]

38 year old PG just isnt going to cut it. Not in Stockton's time. Particularly in the 2004-?? time period where penetrating guards are essential and even more favored by refs.

[nowhereman]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

I think I've heard this story before...

True story. But there's no way these Hornets are as good as last years Spurs... right?

On second thought, maybe we should just win and not play any matchup games.

[mavs777]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

38 year old PG just isnt going to cut it. Not in Stockton's time. Particularly in the 2004-?? time period where penetrating guards are essential and even more favored by refs.

you must have missed the Lakers these past few years

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by mavs777

you must have missed the Lakers these past few years

when did the Mavs get a SG that is capable of what Kobe does?