How Much Better Were the Champs than the 2011-2012 Mavs? - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

G-Man · 04-21-2012, 10:56 AM

With the playoffs still a week away, I'm dying for some interesting chat, so how about a debate on the relative merits of this team vs last? Now lets be honest. This time last year, the Mavs closed out the season 4-4. Roddy, after a disappointing 2nd half, went down with an injury and every team in the West thought we were the weakest team in the playoffs. Then the magic started. DSteve and JJB played with consistency none of us had seen before or since. Peja and Jet 3 bombed the Lakers out of the gym. Corey Brewer stepped up and won a game and the Custodian crushed Wade and made shots. We can't expect magic to strike twice. But be that as it may, are we anywhere close to as good as a year ago? Man for man, I argue, we are surprisingly close.

Start with the Core: Better with age or worse from the wear? Carlisle kept the minutes short for Dirk and Kidd, so we can hope they will be close to as good this year compared to last. Terry and Marion look as good as ever. So advantage to the champs based on wear and tear. But the core is still solid compared to last year.

So, what about the rest?

Is Delonte better than DSteve? In my mind, absolutely. He is just as tough a defender, although not as well suited to take on Kobe and Wade sized 2's. But his offense is much better. In fact, I think he is a better backup PG than JJB. So Delonte is a definate upgrade.

Are Haywood, Mahimi and Wright better than Chandler,Haywood, Mahimi? Advantage: Champs. . While on paper, the stats from this year are impressive, there is no stat to show the leadership and toughness that Chandler brought. However, this year's defense is pretty damned good, and the growth from Mahimi has helped. More impressive still is Wright, who seems to get better night after night. The kid has great hands, and is the most talented scorer of them all. Hope he puts on some pounds in the off season, but even at 220, he has made the Mavs a threat to score at center, so the advantage to last year would be lessened. One key factor...Chandler stepped up his play big time for the championship run. I don't think Haywood has that in him. Mahimi and Wright have the desire but lack the physical ability to dominate the middle. This we will miss, no matter what the stats say.

Was JJB Better that the Roddy B-Delonte West combo? Barea was, for me, the shock of the playoff run. He had been horribly inconsistent his entire career and suddenly chose last May to get it together, helped a great deal by the fact that, in the entire playoff run, we only faced 1 team with a quick PG...OKC. His destruction of LA made the Finals trip possible. Roddy today is just as inconsistent as JJB was until the Finals. I am not expecting lightning to strike twice, so big advantage here would go to the champs. However I expect West to get most of the minutes at back-up point guard. Plus, he and Roddy are both better defenders than JJB. So for most of the things you need from that spot, we are better. But we miss JJB's ability to break down defenses. On a normal night, 2012 is better. But JJB played better in the playoffs than this years combo has in the regular season. Untilt they show they can step it up, Advantage: Champs.

Carter is better than Peja: Advantage 2012. This was a not true until Odom left. Now, Carter is getting more minutes and is starting to show some consistency. Peja was one dimensional. But put him out on the 3 point line and teams had to send a body out to guard him. Carter is a threat out there, but he's not likely to get hot and hit 5 in a row and win a game from beyond the arc. Carter, on the other hand, can do more than shoot 3's. When he is mixing it up, and taking care of the ball, and making his shots, he's better than Peja. My hope is that, being in a locker room with all those old pro's who came together to win some jewelry last year will inspire him to old heights. The real question is, can his body do what his mind wishes? Peja pushed his body until it just plain gave out. Mavs fans owe him big time for that. If Carter can do the same, while still playing within himself, he could be a huge help. But until he proves he can do it in April and May, extra points go to Peja, because we've already seen him come through in playoff crunch time. Two weeks ago, the advantage would have gone the other way.

Intangibles: Advantage Champs. Last year, everything just fell together. It was a tour de force of team basketball...passing, sharing, trusting. Its hard to tell how much of that this year's team has. I think it was hard to build trust with that Laker time bomb in the locker room. But that is, in many ways, similar to last April... in both seasons, they stopped counting on a player who had failed to deliver on his huge potential. Last year, they got better without Roddy. This year, they got better without Lamar. At this point in both years, we had no idea how good they could get. In the last week of the season, this year's team looks about as good as last year's squad did. What remains consistent is the heart of our champions. Do they have enough to do it again?

The easy thing is to say there is no way this year's team is close to as good as last....I'll concede that. But how good do you think this team could be?

Underdog · 04-21-2012, 11:08 AM

Why did a pint-sized Barea and a washed-up Peja help carry this team to a championship? Coaching... Carlisle knows which buttons to push to get the most out of his squad. It'll be interesting to see what Carter, Wright and Roddy will give us... Any hope of repeating lies on their shoulders - they are the x-factors.

Same coach, same chance.

Underdog · 04-21-2012, 11:14 AM

Another thing to consider is that Jason Terry played out of his mind with a consistency that we've never seen from him before - we need him to be that unconscious killer again if we want to make a deep run, otherwise all bets are off...

G-Man · 04-21-2012, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Another thing to consider is that Jason Terry played out of his mind with a consistency that we've never seen from him before - we need him to be that unconscious killer again if we want to make a deep run, otherwise all bets are off...

You can tell from my sig how much I agree with you on that!

markus1234 · 04-21-2012, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Man

So, what about the rest?

Is Delonte better than DSteve? In my mind, absolutely. He is just as tough a defender, although not as well suited to take on Kobe and Wade sized 2's. But his offense is much better. In fact, I think he is a better backup PG than JJB. So Delonte is a definate upgrade.

....problematic comparison.

Artest ate Delonte alive 1 on 1. He could not do it with DSteve.

I think in the playoffs you need guys who can do one thing extremely well (offense, defense, shooting, driving) and a coach who pushes the right buttons (matchups) and not so much average multi-specialists.

But hey, it is just my opinion. Nothing more. let's hope Delonte can step up and play like Barea on offense and like DSteve on defense...

Underdog · 04-21-2012, 11:50 AM

- West can't hit the three with the same consistency as Stevenson, but he does everything else on offense better. Stevenson was the stronger defender, West is quicker (which is important when you're playing next to an old bull like Jason Kidd...)

- Roddy can do anything that Barea can do better, but he certainly can't do it as consistently as Barea did in last year's playoffs... But regardless of his lapses on offense, on his worst days he's still an infinitely better defender than JJB.

- Carter vs. Peja is a tough one because it's really apples and oranges. The one thing that Stojakovic brought is the biggest thing that this team lacks - a consistent 3-point threat... But of course, that threat was quickly mitigated as soon as you needed him to do anything else on the floor. That's where Carter has been so useful - he's doing EVERYTHING well; a jack-of-all-trades, the ultimate glue guy. I think he can be a huge difference-maker in the playoffs.

- Wright/Mahinmi vs. Chandler? Yeah, that one hurts a lot... But I will say this - Wright is better on offense than Tyson. That's obviously not enough to make up for what we lost, but at least there's a silver lining. And it's not like the center position is killing us - we're getting pretty good production out of our three-headed beast most nights.

Imagine how the comparison between last year and this year would've looked if we got anywhere near the 14/9/3 career production from Lamar Odom? It certainly would've taken the sting out of Chandler's departure and made this a much, much different discussion...

sefant77 · 04-21-2012, 11:54 AM

You cant compare just player.

Last years team was just clicking, thats why they beat all the teams woth higher individual talent....

G-Man · 04-21-2012, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sefant77

You cant compare just player.

Last years team was just clicking, thats why they beat all the teams woth higher individual talent....

True dat. But the fact is, they didn't really start to click until the playoffs. Really not until the night Portland made the dramatic comeback. In my post, I called it magic, but that tends to ignore the guts and drive and determination that team was able to summon in some of those dramatic comeback wins.

Can they do it again?

MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs · 04-21-2012, 12:03 PM

Who is Carlyle.

LonghornDub · 04-21-2012, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Another thing to consider is that Jason Terry played out of his mind with a consistency that we've never seen from him before - we need him to be that unconscious killer again if we want to make a deep run, otherwise all bets are off...

I actually thought he was about as consistent as he normally is. Off the top of my head, he had mediocre-to-bad games in Games 1, 2, and 4 of the Portland series, Game 2 of the Lakers series, the entire Thunder series except Game 1, and Games 1, 3, and 4 of the Finals. That's about half the playoffs.

The difference for Terry last year was that the Mavs played in enough playoff games that he had time to swing both up and down. Many, many people were saying last spring that he would never be good in the playoffs again--due to increased defensive intensity, or whatever--because he hadn't played very well in the playoffs for several years. But those people ignored that each of those playoff runs were very short. And it made no sense to aggregate them--each year and playoffs were different situations, different Mavs teams, different opponents, etc.

I was pleasantly surprised by some of the specific things Terry did--for instance, good defense throughout the playoffs and constantly beating LeBron of the dribble--but I thought his "consistency" was entirely in line with his career. This postseason, if the Mavs make a deep run, I'd bet he'll play very well in about 50% of the games.

This has always been my take on Terry: his highs are superstar-level. He was the best player in a Finals close-out game featuring 4 surefire HoFers and possibly another (Bosh). He had an ungodly closeout performance against the two-time defending champs. But he's not a superstar, so he's never going to be able to maintain that production consistently.

Underdog · 04-21-2012, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sefant77

You cant compare just player.

Last years team was just clicking, thats why they beat all the teams woth higher individual talent....

I didn't see a whole lot of clicking last year until the playoffs rolled around...

Plus, this team pretty much rebooted itself after Lamar got canned - we have the same pieces, but they fit differently now... It'll be interesting to see if the Mavs can put it all together and flip a switch when the playoffs start.

LonghornDub · 04-21-2012, 12:13 PM

I forgot to answer the OP: it's really impossible to say how much better last year's team was until this year's team is done. Last year at this time, we thought last year's team was pretty good but not great. They turned out to be...well, you know.

Underdog · 04-21-2012, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I actually thought he was about as consistent as he normally is. Off the top of my head, he had mediocre-to-bad games in Games 1, 2, and 4 of the Portland series, Game 2 of the Lakers series, the entire Thunder series except Game 1, and Games 1, 3, and 4 of the Finals. That's about half the playoffs.

You just reverse-engineered my point for me - we lost 5 games in our entire playoff run and 4 of those were games that you just listed as bad performances from Jason Terry.

The only time we lost when he played well was Game 3 against Portland.

LonghornDub · 04-21-2012, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

You just reverse-engineered my point for me - we lost 5 games in our entire playoff run and 4 of those were games that you just listed as bad performances from Jason Terry.

The only time we lost when he played well was Game 3 against Portland.

Obviously it's the case that they are unlikely to lose when he plays very well, but you said:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Another thing to consider is that Jason Terry played out of his mind with a consistency that we've never seen from him before

That's the part I don't agree with. I thought his consistency last playoffs was entirely in line with the hundreds (thousands?) of games he's played over his career.

Underdog · 04-21-2012, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

That's the part I don't agree with. I thought his consistency last playoffs was entirely in line with the hundreds (thousands?) of games he's played over his career.

His mindset and overall energy level seemed more consistent, if not his numbers - it was the smaller, more intangible things that made the difference... He played good defense and kept his mental lapses to a minimum... There was a spark of intensity in his eyes; he never cruised or took any plays off... Even when he wasn't helping us, he wasn't hurting us.

It was entirely a matter of iron-willed effort, and we're going to need that again if we want to repeat.

LonghornDub · 04-21-2012, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

His mindset and overall energy level seemed more consistent, if not his numbers - it was the smaller, more intangible things that made the difference... He played good defense and kept his mental lapses to a minimum... There was a spark of intensity in his eyes; he never cruised or took any plays off... Even when he wasn't helping us, he wasn't hurting us.

It was entirely a matter of iron-willed effort, and we're going to need that again if we want to repeat.

I agree that there were certain areas where he stepped his game up, but my overall point is that I don't think improved "consistency" by him was a major factor last year. I thought he does--more or less--what Jason Terry has been doing for his entire career. Huge, huge games interspersed with mediocre and fairly poor ones.

For me, what really improved last playoffs was the ability of other guys on the roster to step up when Terry has one of his guaranteed downswings. Like I said, he starts off the playoffs poorly in Games 1 and 2 against Portland. So what happens? Jason Kidd steps up and hits 6-10 threes in Game 1. Peja steps up and scores like 20 points in Game 2. If not for those things, the Mavs may already be 1-1 or 0-2 (which is exactly what happened in previous years).

That, to me, was the critical thing. Dirk is gonna be Dirk--really good 80-90% of the time. Terry is Terry--really good about half the time. For me, the big unknown this season is all the other guys. Will Delonte step up when Terry has a patented 3-12 night? Carter? Roddy?

Underdog · 04-21-2012, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I forgot to answer the OP: it's really impossible to say how much better last year's team was until this year's team is done. Last year at this time, we thought last year's team was pretty good but not great. They turned out to be...well, you know.

That's why it's hilarious to see all these people say that we can't beat the Lakers just because we went 0-4 against them in the regular season... We went 1-2 against them last season, including a 110-82 beatdown just a couple weeks before the playoffs, and we still ended up sweeping them when it mattered.

The regular season is just practice - the playoffs are where the truth is told.

Budapest Maverick · 04-21-2012, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Man

True dat. But the fact is, they didn't really start to click until the playoffs.

Unfortunately i think that is where you're wrong, and why i think the whole premise of your otherwise excellent post, is a little questionable. I mean yeah, we finished last year's regular season badly, but! Last year's team started out the year with what, a 21-5 W/L record, with one of the hardest early schedule? We were spanking elite teams left and right, i believe we were either 15-0, or 15-1 against playoff teams at one point.

After then, injuries happened, and we started to play inconsistently. Then march came, and we had a string of 23 games, where we won 20 games, and we were leading (!) in all of the other 3, with 1 minute left in the game, and ended up losing them, i think at least 2 of them on buzzers. Just think about it, a couple 50/50 ball goes the other way, and we could have had a 23 games winning streak.

What i'm trying to say, especially in hindsight, that the writing was on the wall. That team had it in them. Without writing off this years's team (which i would never do) the 2011/2012 Mavs is yet to show us that kind of efficiency, and domination, that last year team showed, even before the playoffs.

4Dirk1Nowitzki · 04-21-2012, 12:53 PM

Good work, but I think it's really hard to compare this compact season to last years season. I really believe this year's team is better than what the record shows. That 9 in 12 is a great example of that. Great work once again, the playoffs will be the true story teller though. I got a lot of hope in this team to compete versus any top seeded team.

Budapest Maverick · 04-21-2012, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4Dirk1Nowitzki

I really believe this year's team is better than what the record shows.

No question about that, that is why we have to be optimistic, until we're out. They have the potential to be an extremely dangerous team. They just didn't show it in the regular season like last year, and that could mean they don't have it in them, or that could mean they will put it together for the playoff. They'll have almost a week, for the first time in the season, win the first away game, and who knows...

G-Man · 04-21-2012, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs

Who is Carlyle.

bad spelling. corrected. thanks

fluid.forty.one · 04-21-2012, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G-Man

You can tell from my sig how much I agree with you on that!

I'm going a little off topic, but I think Simmons was talking about the long 3 that put them up 7 with 33 seconds left... the one over LeBron. That was his "last" 3 of the game, and a totally irrationally confident one.

sefant77 · 04-21-2012, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

I'm going a little off topic, but I think Simmons was talking about the long 3 that put them up 7 with 33 seconds left... the one over LeBron. That was his "last" 3 of the game, and a totally irrationally confident one.

True but shotclock was running down anyway....5-6 seconds left?

"Terry a long three - BANG"

LonghornDub · 04-21-2012, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

That's why it's hilarious to see all these people say that we can't beat the Lakers just because we went 0-4 against them in the regular season... We went 1-2 against them last season, including a 110-82 beatdown just a couple weeks before the playoffs, and we still ended up sweeping them when it mattered.

The regular season is just practice - the playoffs are where the truth is told.

Agreed. The regular season results mean nothing to me. That one win the Mavs had against the Lakers last year was in home in January and with the Mavs coming off that Dirk-less losing streak. That was the only time they could beat them. Then they're suddenly sweeping them in the playoffs.

b_o_r · 04-21-2012, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

Unfortunately i think that is where you're wrong, and why i think the whole premise of your otherwise excellent post, is a little questionable. I mean yeah, we finished last year's regular season badly, but! Last year's team started out the year with what, a 21-5 W/L record, with one of the hardest early schedule? We were spanking elite teams left and right, i believe we were either 15-0, or 15-1 against playoff teams at one point.

After then, injuries happened, and we started to play inconsistently. Then march came, and we had a string of 23 games, where we won 20 games, and we were leading (!) in all of the other 3, with 1 minute left in the game, and ended up losing them, i think at least 2 of them on buzzers. Just think about it, a couple 50/50 ball goes the other way, and we could have had a 23 games winning streak.

What i'm trying to say, especially in hindsight, that the writing was on the wall. That team had it in them. Without writing off this years's team (which i would never do) the 2011/2012 Mavs is yet to show us that kind of efficiency, and domination, that last year team showed, even before the playoffs.

They weren't "spanking" top teams. They were piling up the wins with late game execution though which has been the downfall of this year's team.

On another note...
The time that was wasted on the Lamar Odom experiment really set this team back . The 2nd unit of Terry/Roddy/Carter/Wright(Dirk)/Mahimni could have rivaled last year's 2nd unit if it had more playing time together to gel.

mavsfan1000 · 04-21-2012, 05:02 PM

This team is slightly older and slower compared to last years team. Dirk, Terry, Marion, Kidd, and Haywood are all slightly worse.

CaseyJones · 04-21-2012, 05:34 PM

Once they get into the playoffs I think the mindset will truly kick in and takeover for them. The true realization that they did it once, they can do it again. They'll make a strong push at it for sure, the only team thats scary is LAL so it's unfortunate we have to play them in round 1.

MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs · 04-21-2012, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaseyJones

Once they get into the playoffs I think the mindset will truly kick in and takeover for them. The true realization that they did it once, they can do it again. They'll make a strong push at it for sure, the only team thats scary is LAL so it's unfortunate we have to play them in round 1.

Technically it isn't locked it yet, Clippers can still take 3rd and Denver can still take 6th from us.

I would say Clips would definetely want 3rd but I'm not sure how much Denver wants 6th knowing they'd have to face the Lakers. But that goes back to the whole tanking subject.

BGMaverick9 · 04-21-2012, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs

Technically it isn't locked it yet, Clippers can still take 3rd and Denver can still take 6th from us.

20 percent chance the Clippers will do that, and 11% that the Nuggets will do that.

MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs · 04-21-2012, 06:14 PM

I'll take your word for it but we're tied with Denver in the loss column and the Lakers and Clippers are also tied in the loss column. Although I am aware that the Lakers have the tiebreaker over the Clips. But if Lakers lose tomorrow vs OKC and Clips can beat the Hornets tomorrow (two far from impossible scenarios) the Clips are in 3rd place, so I'm not real sure where you're getting the 20%.

Budapest Maverick · 04-21-2012, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b_o_r

They weren't "spanking" top teams. They were piling up the wins with late game execution though which has been the downfall of this year's team.

Grizzlies 106-91
Thunder 111-103
Heat 106-96
Spurs 103-94
Thunder 103-93
Lakers 109-100

We had some quality wins early last season, but i can rephrase it, we were beating elite teams comfortably early, if that's better.

Kidd Karma · 04-23-2012, 01:24 PM

Intangibles, Chandler talking on and off the court, having never been there, he showed championship swagger early on. We don't have that on this team.

rabbitproof · 04-23-2012, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

Intangibles, Chandler talking on and off the court, having never been there, he showed championship swagger early on. We don't have that on this team.

The team -should- have championship swagger now (because they are actual champions, not just fronting it). It's just the aging bodies and talent that may betray that swag.

The playoff schedule will be super friendly after this RS so RS-playoff comparisons between last year and this year can almost be thrown out the window. That said, the Mavs also have to go on the road 3 times this time as well.

It will largely depend on matchups and mo. If we can survive another Brandon Roy type game, I think this team will roll. Getting the Lakers early could be a blessing.

MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs · 04-23-2012, 03:55 PM

If we only had this guy

(for about 10 games midseason racking up DNPs)

It's not TC Deshawn JJB or any of the rest, it was this man's midseason swagger that lead us to a championship. Thank you Steve Novak.

Don't be surprised if the Knicks win it this year, again not because of TC but because of Discount Double Check. Aaron Rogers does it Novak does it. Clearly doing the DDC = championships.

NorwegianMavsFan · 04-24-2012, 06:51 PM

Great analysis, G-Man, but I think the essence is really in the core. For me, the question is whether Dirk and Kidd can step up like last year. I´ve been watching the finals games lately, and Dirk´s first step seems so much quicker than this year´s. Dirk will hit his open shots and rediculous one-legged fades, but will he be able to take it off the drible like he did last year? His cuts to the basket last year were stronger and quicker than this year. Im hoping that when playoff defense slows the game down, Kidd will be able to direct the offense like he did last year, and knock down the same shots he did. I think his shot has come around lately, but can he keep it up?

mav4ever · 04-25-2012, 04:39 PM

last years team was considerably stronger. biggest differences were of course tyson chandler and jj,,,,, inside the paint and locker room.

redzwestisbest · 04-25-2012, 04:44 PM

Good post in general but this doesn't make sense (and I haven't read any replies):

"Was JJB Better that the Roddy B-Delonte West combo? Barea was, for me, the shock of the playoff run. He had been horribly inconsistent his entire career and suddenly chose last May to get it together, helped a great deal by the fact that, in the entire playoff run, we only faced 1 team with a quick PG...OKC. His destruction of LA made the Finals trip possible. Roddy today is just as inconsistent as JJB was until the Finals. I am not expecting lightning to strike twice, so big advantage here would go to the champs. However I expect West to get most of the minutes at back-up point guard. Plus, he and Roddy are both better defenders than JJB. So for most of the things you need from that spot, we are better. But we miss JJB's ability to break down defenses. On a normal night, 2012 is better. But JJB played better in the playoffs than this years combo has in the regular season. Untilt they show they can step it up, Advantage: Champs. "

How can you make a determination about JJ vs. 11-12 backup PG until after the playoffs? JJ's main contribution last year was the playoffs. He came up big many times. The regular season? Not so much. Delonte/Roddy have not had the opportunity to play in the playoffs yet. If history is in any indication, then Delonte will come to play in the playoffs. Also, comparing Delonte and JJ is apples and oranges. They both bring entirely different skill sets.

Underdog · 04-25-2012, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mav4ever

last years team was considerably stronger. biggest differences were of course tyson chandler and jj,,,,, inside the paint and locker room.

Chandler I get, but what did Barea bring that Roddy and Carter don't bring ten-times over?

redzwestisbest · 04-25-2012, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

- West can't hit the three with the same consistency as Stevenson, but he does everything else on offense better. Stevenson was the stronger defender, West is quicker (which is important when you're playing next to an old bull like Jason Kidd...)

West is a better 3point shooter than Deshawn is overall, but Deshawn did overachieve at 3point shooting last year for the Mavs. Again, to compare Delonte's 11-12 playoff run to Stevenson's 11-12 playoff run is unfair for obvious reasons. DeShawn was near 40% from 3 last year in the playoffs. For him, that is insanely great. For Delonte, 45-50% would be insanely great.

dalger · 04-25-2012, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Chandler I get, but what did Barea bring that Roddy and Carter don't bring ten-times over?

Although JJB clearly wasn't nearly as important as Tyson and his numbers weren't spectacular throughout last year's playoffs, he did in fact have some great games by his standards and contributed big time to our ring. Two very productive games against each the Lakers and OKC come to mind, and his Game 6 contributions against Miami should always be rememebered fondly. Not to mention that he wasn't afraid of showing up when it mattered the most, which was basically in every final game of every series.

JJB certainly won't be the difference-maker, yet he's one of them. Whether it was Tyson, JJB, Peja, DeShawn or even Brewer--they all had an impact on last year's playoffs, some of them at times a big one even. Not having either one's contributions could be too much to overcome this time, and that doesn't even take into account just how tremendous Jet and particularly Dirk were last year.

I'm not saying it'll be impossible to repeat. However, I just don't feel confident at all about our chances either. That said, last year I wasn't confident either and all the magic only occured until after the playoffs had started. Hoping for the best is still very much the best mantra.