"Git er done" (fixing the Mavs) - db.com

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Some of this was discussed earlier this week here at dallas-mavs.com, but here's the fuller detail of our current analysis of the Mavs. http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=365

'Git 'Er Done!'
State Of The Mavs: Our 4-Step Formula
By David Lord and Mike Fisher - DB.com

Who are these Mavericks? Are they broken or fixed? And if they are still broken, what will it take to fix this "couldn't-beat-a-good-team-for-six-weeks" version of the Mavs, and how long will it take?

In the wake of the Mavs' dominant 111-86 win over the Warriors on Wednesday, the natural reaction is to proclaim, "All is well!" and to blithely march forward. But we're not that easy to convince, and you shouldn't be either. This was one single game, against a Golden State team on a tough back-to-back that ran out of steam.

For a month or more, we've seen and heard the whining and despair, and we feel your pain, Dallas Mavericks fans. But unlike many, we've never thought this group of players -- despite its recent murky record -- has been far away from elite at all. We think the players are still incredibly capable of doing the "right things" to win big here, as seen (finally) against Golden State. And we think that type of performance can happen even more -- if the proper buttons are pushed.

However, for too long the solution has looked distant. This has been a team adhering to no apparent philosophy, a team that doesn't look like it knows how to win, a team with a confidence that simply had to be shaken, and a team that hadn't been showing an ability to compete at a high level anymore. Some numbers do not lie: Dallas home win Wednesday over the Warriors still left them 1-10 against winning teams in the Kidd Era. And when they get down, they stay down; this year’s record when the Mavs fall behind by double-digits is, by our calculations, a sickening 5-23.

That’s not what elite contenders do.

The only consistent thing we've been seeing about the present edition of the Mavs is an ability to always get beat by good teams.

Some in the bleachers, on the message boards and aboard their couches are now even wishing for this team to miss the playoffs entirely, with the aim of adding some talent via the draft.

But it shouldn't be like that. We do agree that we'd rather have a high draft pick than see this team play like a dog for another two weeks and then somehow back into the playoffs while being inept. A playoff run under those circumstances would be pointless (and brief).

But if this team is playing well, it can be very dangerous in the playoffs that they've been awaiting for a year. And frankly, the experts we talk to think this team has MORE talent than ever before, not less. We tend to agree. It is important to note -- important to the coming decisions about the franchise’s future -- that many in the Mavs organization think so, too.

Coach Avery Johnson's repeated explanation is that these players just haven't been performing properly. It happened in the first week of training camp on subjects as silly as leadership (Avery bizarrely claimed his team HAD NO LEADERSHIP) and it’s continued all year, on various and sundry other subjects. While we have real problems with a coach who chooses to throw his players under the bus on a nightly basis (and that's what you and your media surrogates are feeding us, Avery, whether you realize it or whether it’s intentional), that's an issue for a different day.

But more importantly, there's a problem with the specifics about which Avery keeps preaching to his audience: This is a manager who coaches one way, then complains about the predictable results of the choices he makes. Is he just not innately intelligent enough to see the fact that his choices are causing the flaws? Or is he just finger-wagging and finger-pointing at the players in order to shift the blame for what he realizes too late were his ill-considered coaching choices? Or is it some form of Kamikaze Hard-Headedness?

We hear the coach moan about the lack of defense. … while choosing to prioritize minutes for players whose known resumes include the fact that don't play good defense.

We hear the coach moan about rebounding. … while chaining his centers to the bench or worse, changing them to his doghouse -- and relying on SmallBall.

We hear the coach moan about his players’ failure to attacking the basket. … but you can't just tell a player "drive to the basket more" and get results, unless at the same time you are putting him in position with the ball to be able to get that done.

And when Avery says, "We just didn't attack the hoop" or “We shot too many jumpshots,’’ don't lose sight of the fact that the coach uttering those words is the man who is choosing to give burn to jump-shooter-style players over rim-attacker-style players, and that he seemingly isn't teaching plays to open lanes to the basket.

The results are predictable (at least to everyone not named Avery).

A year and more ago, this was more of a traditional team than it is now. They knew their roles, had an identity, and could play defense and rebound. Unfortunately, a behind-the-scenes architect of many of those strategies used to create the Dallas Mavericks juggernaut is no longer part of the day-to-day operation of the on-court product.

We said it was unfortunate when we first broke the news a year ago of Del Harris’ decision to “semi-retire.’’

Well, in a way, we were wrong -- because it’s turned out to be much more than “unfortunate.’’

In our 20/20-hindsight view, Avery’s 2005-06 Coach of the Year award was a negative turn of events. Rather than embracing the people who’d helped him achieve that success -- Harris prime among them -- Avery began to believe his own press clippings. For all of Johnson’s notable accomplishments (the numbers, the institution of an emphasis on defense and the Finals appearance), he did step into a situation that, while it might have begged for him, was also quite sweet: Mark Cuban and Co. had built a perennial 55-win machine, one that simply needed some new fuel (supplied by the youthful, forceful energy of Johnson) while still having the wisdom of the years of coaching experience provided by having Harris alongside.

Did Avery Johnson need a convenient spot to lay the blame for the Golden State flameout and run off his top assistant -- despite that top assistant’s status as a powerful brain behind all the success? That would be a horrible thrown-under-the-bus act, and we don’t know that it went down that way. But we do know for certain that Avery increasingly tuned out the previously-valued input from some of the people around him. And we do find it noteworthy that after the stunning playoff loss to the Warriors (which in our opinion was still more a "perfect storm" of injuries, matchup hell, catching a hot team that was way better at that point than a standard No. 8, plus a panicky rookie coaching decision by Avery to play SmallBall against a SmallBall wizard) there was no major player change. Instead there was only a staff change that resulted in one of basketball’s finest minds leaving the bench and instead sitting in a suite high above the floor at American Airlines Center.

Did you ever wonder: Why is Del Harris designated as a special consultant to Mark Cuban, rather than as a special consultant to Avery and the other coaches? Cuban made a genius move, rewarding Del by retaining him while salvaging him as an organizational resource. Avery made a short-sighted one by tossing away -- or at least by allowing the departure -- of such a source of wisdom.

Avery’s willingness to “do it his way’’ and to “go it alone’’ speaks to his self-assuredness and to his desire to “Aspire Higher.’’ “A man’s greatest strength is usually also his greatest weakness,’’ our buddy Michael Irvin often tells us, and it applies to Avery Johnson. The shuffling of his coaching staff was a bold move. But not an astute one.

This season we are seeing Avery as a “singular voice’’ (echoes of the tyrannical rule of Bill Parcells) and the results have been amazingly underwhelming. Philosophically, the changes tell us there's an attempt to create the next generation of SuperSmallBall, with just enough Dampier to help a bit plus smaller players in rotation spots 6-7-8-9 who replace the starting BigBallers. That added SmallBall approach eats up major floor time this year. But instead of making the team stronger, it has gutted the very strengths that had previously been created under Avery's watch.

Last season the team played a traditional center for about 3500 minutes; this season that total is only about 2400, with a handful of games left. That's a significant change in philosophy.

As a result, this team has now evolved into a weird stew with no particular strengths and no particular identity, an inconsistent defense, and a loss of much of the things they’d worked to build over the past few years. They don't know fully who they are. They don’t seem to know where to go to get the crunch-time baskets. They appear to lack the close-out confidence helpful when it comes to winning tight games.

So while keeping in mind that a team slated to win around 50 is hardly a disaster while also reminding that the Mark Cuban Era has raised the bar of what is acceptable -- how can it be fixed?

One possible solution, of course, is to dismiss Avery Johnson, and to replace him with a coach who can a) create a focused identity, and b) has the nuts to surround himself with assistants SMARTER than himself. (Phil Jackson has Tex Winter; Rick Adelman had Pete Carrill; Avery Johnson has … ?) With one move -- and the right choice of person, which seems easier than it is -- this team will soar again. The talent is already here and is as motivated and unified as an NBA team can be.

The Mavs play hard; some of the credit for that goes to their character, some to Avery’s relentlessness. Unfortunately, they need more than pushing. They also need wisdom and guidance to know in which direction they should be pushed.

But it is fixable, and with THIS core group of players.

There's a second solution, and one we like better than whacking the head coach. We think this team could be significantly repaired instantly if Avery were to be konked over head with a figurative baseball bat (or better, a bat made of rolled-up pro-Avery newspaper clippings) and was convinced to take some much-needed steps immediately.

Here's our Four-Step Formula of things Avery and the Mavs could do that would greatly increase productivity. And while these concepts are sound ones to be adapted this summer, we’d prefer they occur NOW. Four steps, and the Mavs’ playoff chances increase, and the Mavs’ potential for being lethal to a postseason opponent increase.

What’s more, if Avery is willing to "do what it takes" to get the job done, he will find that all four of these steps are eminently doable. They are already at his fingertips.

1. Make Dirk the focal point of the team again.

Peter Vecsey’s claim that Avery wanted to dump Dirk still seems absurd. But we are willing to believe that Avery lost some confidence in Dirk after the 2007 playoffs. That would explain why this season he has been trying to find "better" ways to win, “better’’ ways to utilize the reigning MVP (“making him more Dirk-like,’’ as people inside the organization tell us), failing to comprehend that Dirk's circa 2006-07 blend of skills make him the Mavs' ultimate weapon.

It might be true that Dirk-as-passer adds a “tool’’ to his “toolbox.’’ But that tool isn’t a hammer; it’s like, maybe, a stapler. Dirk’s “tools’’ are as a scorer, and by going away from that -- by losing confidence in that -- Avery this year has done what the entire NBA hadnt been able to do: He neutered Nowitzki.

Give Avery credit for building a better UberMan? Fine. Dirk has acquired added skills this year to attack double-teams. Now, assuming he regains his health – and by the way, this guy’s rub-some-dirt-approach to recovering from nasty ankle injuries and such is astounding -- make him THE focal point again. Do everything you can to maximize (not minimize) that advantage.

Once Dirk is the guy -- and by the way, this is Basketball 101 -- that opens up EVERYTHING for the rest of the team.

Of course, that means you play BigBall every second you can, because Dirk is much more effective alongside a big traditional center. Sometimes we think Avery believes that this team goes as far as Avery takes them, when in fact, this team goes as far as Dirk takes them. So Dirk needs to be the centerpiece. And Damp needs to be the center. Except as a changeup here or there, Screw SmallBall. (“Screw SmallBall.’’ We should make the T-shirts.)

2. Play as much BigBall as possible, even when Dirk is resting.

Every team needs an identity, and this team (if it's going to win) is best as a BigBall team.

And that identity cannot change based on the opponent, but rather on the strengths of that identity in regard to how they can be exploited based on the opponent. For example, virtually every coach in the league who has a legitimate center and frontline tries to beat Golden State by pounding them with BigBall. Why? Because "getting pounded" in the middle is Golden State's Achilles heel. But Avery does it differently. His favorite Warriors-beating strategy is to try to out-SmallBall a Golden State team whose strength is SmallBall. Wonder why Avery's way doesn't work?

Before Wednesday’s meeting with the Warriors, Avery excused Damp’s lack of playing time in the Sunday game against the Warriors, saying Dampier just couldn't match up against that team. That ignored the reality that when the teams met earlier in the year, Dampier played almost 30 minutes and the Mavs won, and that in Dampier's 12 minutes Sunday the Mavs were +12 on the scoreboard.

Wednesday, Avery for some unexplained reason chose to play the "overmatched" Dampier almost 30 minutes, and the Mavs won easily. Coincidence? We don't think so. Absolutely not.

(Does Avery’s flip-flop here mean he’s “flexible’’ and “learning’’? Or does it mean he’s “grab-bagging’’?)

For the Mavs to excel as the BigBall team they are, we would mandate going forward that Dampier plays as much as possible every game, until he poops out or fouls out. Jamaal Magloire (or maybe Malik Allen/Juwan Howard) gets the backup minutes. Not Brandon Bass, who has a different and important role elsewhere and just isn't big enough to be a real center in the NBA. We’re mixed on Magloire; he's a true center, yes. But to be blunt, so far he’s shown nothing in games (and we can assume, that same “nothing’’ in practices.)

But the goal must be to get as close as you can to a "real center" for at least 40-42 minutes -- not 25-30, which appears to be nothing more than an effort to motivate people, punish people or “mix things up.’’ (More “grab-bagging.’’) That extra 15 minutes of MunchkinLand is getting them killed on the scoreboard, it’s getting them worn to the nub (an obvious problem with SmallBall, no matter who plays it) and one more issue: Hey, Avery, the Mavs just aren’t very good at it.

One more thing, on a related point: Avery’s concerted effort to develop a "cohesive second unit" as we are a handful of games away from the postseason is outstandingly foolish. That “second five’’ will NEVER play together in the playoffs (or had better not), so why waste precious floor minutes while failing to teach truly key reserves how to mesh with four members of the starting unit?

3. Prioritize "defense" and make the fourth quarter about making it IMPOSSIBLE for the other team to score. Every game.

When the Mavs fall behind, they shift in pseudo-identity again. They are coached as if they believe that the way to catch up is by launching a high volume of outside shots.

A better idea: The Mavs need to try to regain the mentality that they'll catch up and close out games (and we say ‘’regain’’ because we believe Avery once did emphasize this) with choke-you defense. They once knew how to do that. Certainly they want to do that. But it’s a task made more difficult when the coach prioritizes offensive players instead of defense-first players.

What about the fear of being unable to score? Nonsense. If they know the other team CAN'T score much, it takes all the pressure off the offense. (Consider life for the Nuggets and Warriors, Dallas’ second-tier playoff rivals, who almost HAVE to score 115 to win with much margin. That’s self-imposed pressure. Most teams play this way out of underdog desperation; why should Dallas’ style be “desperate’’?)

Plus, if the Mavs focus at least as much on gaining turnovers as they do on 22-foot jumpers, they can turn good defense into the elusive-but-golden “easy baskets.’’ (Very much playing into the strength of the team’s second-best player, Jason Kidd.) However, when the other team is able to run its plays with ease down the stretch as they start a parade to the line, comebacks and close-outs become doubly hard.

Don’t necessarily take this as a direct criticism of the talents of Jerry Stackhouse, Malik Allen and especially Jason Terry, who are offense-first guys. We respect players like Jet who can add a spark (or better, 31 points in a game!). But they should play in key stretches and in crunch time only if they play hard defense, the very best they are capable of, or better, if they are presented a survivable matchup when they are on defense.

Let’s be frank: A final-stretch lineup that includes Stack, Allen and Jet is unlikely to stop anybody. And it’s not their fault they’re on the floor together in that circumstance.

4. Beg, plead, and cajole Del Harris to immediately return and be an ACTIVE part of all the strategy, including maybe even making him the prime bench assistant for the duration.

This is not meant to imply that the other assistants are unhelpful. But Del Harris has more coaching experience and skins on the wall than all the rest of the fellas combined. In addition, he was the aforementioned architect of the "system" that created all the success; as we’ve illustrated in this space before, Harris is the man who literally wrote the book on “The Mavericks Way,’’ the textbook/playbook that is still supposed to be the backbone of what the Mavs do.

This means Avery has to be man enough to admit he doesn't know it all, and needs aid from someone with 40 years more experience. A confident man can do that.

We acknowledge that this is unorthodox. It might mean Avery swallows some pride. But if it helps Dallas beat winning teams - and that 1-10 screams “It couldn’t hurt! – it’s not dissimilar to making a move at, say, point guard.

If you can change starting point guards before the trade deadline (and deal with the questioning, criticism and pride-swallowing that goes with it) then why can’t you add an assistant coach before the playoff deadline?

Assuming Del would be willing to take on the burden (he is a highly loyal and HIGHLY-paid consultant, friends), who would object? Popeye, Westphal or Prunty? Nah.

"The way of a fool seems right to him, but a wise man listens to advice," Solomon warned 2500 years ago. "Pride goes before the fall," he also told us, and a fall looks inevitable without some wise humility here.

Again, we prefer as a solution our second offering with the Four-Step Formula. Dirk, Damp, Defense and Del – all available right at the coach’s fingertips.

Don't fall, Avery. Make us proud for your maturity and adjustability, Avery. Do what it takes. Or to quote a not-quite Solomon-like wise man from the 21st century: "Git 'er done."