10-20-2011, 08:50 PM
|
#1
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,113
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
Obviously, you're not looking at the series as a whole because you're deliberately ignoring games.
|
Okay, I won't ignore nonexistent games anymore. How were games 6 and 7 of the world series last year? Did we win?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
So what? In any given scenario at any point during a series, there is a chance it goes to a Game Seven.
|
There's a better chance of there NOT being a game 7 in a 7 game series than the odds of having a game 7 (31% chance of a game 7 occuring). So the odds are that 69% of the time, it won't come to the point that the "advantage" team actually gets to game 7 to cash in their one opportunity to finally have an advantage in a 2-3-2 series. 87.5% of best of 7 series go at least 5 games, which in a 2-2-1-1-1 format gives the "advantage" team a chance to clinch the series in 5 games OR 7 games while at the same time having played more home games than the opposition in games 5 and 7. At no point would it be possible for the "advantage" team to lose a 2-2-1-1-1 series having played less home games than the opponent. It's pretty clear to me which format provides the biggest advantage to the team with a better record.
__________________
Last edited by xrobx; 10-20-2011 at 08:55 PM.
|
|
|
10-20-2011, 10:46 PM
|
#2
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,214
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by xrobx
Okay, I won't ignore nonexistent games anymore. How were games 6 and 7 of the world series last year? Did we win?
There's a better chance of there NOT being a game 7 in a 7 game series than the odds of having a game 7 (31% chance of a game 7 occuring). So the odds are that 69% of the time, it won't come to the point that the "advantage" team actually gets to game 7 to cash in their one opportunity to finally have an advantage in a 2-3-2 series. 87.5% of best of 7 series go at least 5 games, which in a 2-2-1-1-1 format gives the "advantage" team a chance to clinch the series in 5 games OR 7 games while at the same time having played more home games than the opposition in games 5 and 7. At no point would it be possible for the "advantage" team to lose a 2-2-1-1-1 series having played less home games than the opponent. It's pretty clear to me which format provides the biggest advantage to the team with a better record.
|
With your logic, actually playing Game Seven at home is the only time home field advantage is capitalized upon. According to you, holding a 3-2 edge with two home games on the schedule doesn't constitute home field advantage until the first home game is lost.
There's a reason I get paid to analyze risk and you don't. Let's just leave it at that.
|
|
|
10-20-2011, 10:51 PM
|
#3
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
Posts: 8,141
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
With your logic, actually playing Game Seven at home is the only time home field advantage is capitalized upon. According to you, holding a 3-2 edge with two home games on the schedule doesn't constitute home field advantage until the first home game is lost.
There's a reason I get paid to analyze risk and you don't. Let's just leave it at that.
|
So just tell me since you previously said they were the exact same. Given the outcome of the first two games, is the 2-3-2 format still the same as the 2-2-1-1-1 format?
You damn right they aren't. We might not close it out in 5, but if you were paid to pick the format you would prefer at this point it wouldn't be the damn 2-2-1-1-1 format.
__________________
|
|
|
10-20-2011, 11:05 PM
|
#4
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,214
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Male30Dan
So just tell me since you previously said they were the exact same. Given the outcome of the first two games, is the 2-3-2 format still the same as the 2-2-1-1-1 format?
You damn right they aren't. We might not close it out in 5, but if you were paid to pick the format you would prefer at this point it wouldn't be the damn 2-2-1-1-1 format.
|
I take the 2-3-2, but it has nothing to do with momentum or the potential sweep. It has to do with Colby pitching on the road.
|
|
|
10-20-2011, 11:14 PM
|
#5
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Waco, TX
Posts: 8,141
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
I take the 2-3-2, but it has nothing to do with momentum or the potential sweep. It has to do with Colby pitching on the road.
|
Are you actually serious? You take the 2-3-2 for reasons outside of the opportunity to play 3 straight games at home? You realize you are showing your hand here, right? And by showing your hand, I mean showing how stupid you are (and I mean that in the best way possible of course - ).
__________________
Last edited by Male30Dan; 10-20-2011 at 11:16 PM.
|
|
|
10-21-2011, 12:01 AM
|
#6
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,113
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
I take the 2-3-2, but it has nothing to do with momentum or the potential sweep. It has to do with Colby pitching on the road.
|
I knew you'd eventually give up.
__________________
|
|
|
10-21-2011, 01:24 AM
|
#7
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,214
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by xrobx
I knew you'd eventually give up.
|
I've certainly given up on you.
|
|
|
10-21-2011, 01:58 AM
|
#8
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,113
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
I've certainly given up on you.
|
That's good, considering that all you had left was the argument from authority fallacy that the fact you get paid to analyze risk somehow proves your stance right about a home team's advantages in a 2-3-2 baseball series.
__________________
|
|
|
10-20-2011, 11:00 PM
|
#9
|
Guru
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Cowboys Country
Posts: 23,336
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
With your logic, actually playing Game Seven at home is the only time home field advantage is capitalized upon. According to you, holding a 3-2 edge with two home games on the schedule doesn't constitute home field advantage until the first home game is lost.
There's a reason I get paid to analyze risk and you don't. Let's just leave it at that.
|
Are you an actuary now? I feel like I have watched you get all grownz up. Good for you, man. Seriously.
In terms of our discussion here, I guess what I would like to see is for you to take a stand. Is it your stance that any permutation of seven games where one team gets four at home and the other gets three is exactly the same? Let me know where you are coming from.
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:02 PM.
|