2020 NBA Draft

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by MFFL

The Mavs aren't very good at the draft (Luka excepted) so trading away picks doesn't bother me at all

Yeah the Brunson pick two years ago sucked too, right? Lets just throw away all picks...

And lol at any Mavs insider info from the failing SI. If this is a fact, Stein and McMahon would have this info long before SI but yet. The Mavs will never ever trade this pick without knowing who is available....

[MFFL]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Yeah the Brunson pick two years ago sucked too, right? Lets just throw away all ...

Lol

One backup in HOW many years?

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by MFFL

Lol

One backup in HOW many years?

They also drafted Jae Crowder in the second round though it was quite long ago. But then of course they limited his role and traded him and Wright and a 1st for Rondo. I think that was also the Cunningham and Sarge draft. So 1 for 3 and then misjudged the guy they hit on haha!

[DIRK LEGIONS]

Originally Posted by mac222b

They also drafted Jae Crowder in the second round though it was quite long ago. But then of course they limited his role and traded him and Wright and a 1st for Rondo. I think that was also the Cunningham and Sarge draft. So 1 for 3 and then misjudged the guy they hit on haha!

Took all 3 of those guys with draymond green still on draft board I believe

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by DIRK LEGIONS

Took all 3 of those guys with draymond green still on draft board I believe

Yes indeed

[Dtownsfinest]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Yes indeed

I do wonder how do some of these guys get past up. How did anyone see Greek Freak and not take him any earlier? Even if he was a spare...at worst his floor would've been what? Tayshaun Prince? I don't get that one for the life of me.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by MFFL

Lol

One backup in HOW many years?

I know it's not the cool thing to do, but actually look at the stats from a couple of angles.

1) When you only look at the results of the draft independent of where we drafted, we've had since, 2000, we are 20th in the league, which is bottom third of teams (measured by an average of career PER of all our picks together). Only nine teams got less talent out of the draft in the last two decades.

2) When you look at average success corrected for draft position, we are 10th best and that's before Luka's full career brings that even higher. When corrected for how bad our draft position was, we draft better than our draft position almost every time. When we have a good pick, we generally get a good or even better player. When we have a middling pick, we get a middling or better player. Since 2000, we've actually beat the odds on the picks we've had. When we get a top five pick? We get an absolutely transcendent pick.

Since 2000, the average of all our draft picks was 32nd. We're tied with the Rockets for 28th/29th in the league in average draft position. Only the Spurs have drafted lower on average over the last twenty years. When we had good picks? In the last 26 years, we've only had three top-8 picks and we got Kidd, Dirk, and Doncic with those picks.

You know why our picks have been so bad? Along with the Spurs, we've been the most successful team in the league during the 2000s and 2010s. We were good so we drafted low. Then we traded down in a few drafts and traded away a LOT of picks.

I personally think that we should use the metric of what we got for what we had. When you compare what we got with what we had, we're a top ten team and when we draft high, we do really really well.

[MFFL]

Sure but you'd think the Mavs would hit every ONCE in awhile. There are 2nd rounders littering the NBA but the Mavs can't seem to hit

For example, we traded our 2nd rounder to Philly for 2 later 2nds. They got a decent rotation guy in Shake Milton. We wound up cutting both of our guys within a year or so

We drafted Roby and he's accomplished nothing. Terance Mann and Tacko Fall were players in that draft that appear to be eventual fringe rotation players

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by MFFL

Sure but you'd think the Mavs would hit every ONCE in awhile. There are 2nd rounders littering the NBA but the Mavs can't seem to hit

For example, we traded our 2nd rounder to Philly for 2 later 2nds. They got a decent rotation guy in Shake Milton. We wound up cutting both of our guys within a year or so

We drafted Roby and he's accomplished nothing. Terance Mann and Tacko Fall were players in that draft that appear to be eventual fringe rotation players

I mean you can make an anecdotal argument and that's fun to do on a forum and Im not going to stop you, but statistically, you aren't justified by the data.

During the 30 years gathered, 0% of #31 picks were ever stars. 5% of picks at 31 were even really strong starters. Brunson in only his second year is already putting up numbers that would put him in the "strong starter" category.

I think people artificially inflate the chance that a pick later than 15 has, because we really have nailed it on guys like Howard But if we hit on only 1 out of 8 guys (12% chance), and the average chance of success is closer to 7%, then we are still outperforming our crappy pick position as much as naming six failures seems to be proof that we suck.

Over the last 20 years, our average draft pick was 32nd. 32nd! We literally averaged a second round pick for twenty years. According to 82games.com, at that spot, 5% of guys at that position every became stars, 0% become strong starters, 15% role players, 40% of deep bench, and 40% chance of being a complete bust or complete DNP. That's an AVERAGE of every pick we've had in the last 20 years. Top 8 picks also only net a start about 53% of the time and yet we are 3 for 3 on top eight picks in the last nearly 30 years, and not only were they stars--- all three of them are HoF-level players (Kidd, Dirk ,Doncic). It's really hard for me to fathom how people can look at the data and come away with the idea that we're bad at drafting if you actually take into account how low we drafted every single year.

Data pulled from Mavs draft history and https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm