Official Political Poll Thread

[dude1394]

The point reeds...If you would stop and think yourself. Is that most of the posters on THIS board who support kerry are "voting against bush".

[dude1394]

polipundit

Raising Arizona

I wonder if the liberal media still considers Arizona to be a "bitterly divided swing state?" I mean, hell, since WWII, the State of Arizona only has voted for the GOP candidate in 12 of the 14 Presidential elections, including George W. Bush's 51-45 victory over Vice President Gore, back in year 2000.

And the latest survey from the Arizona Republic is:

Bush - 54
Kerry - 38

Hmm.

54-38, eh?

Another "slim majority."

[dude1394]

polipundit

More Gallup Polls

In a recent column, I made it clear that Arizona and Missouri have moved out of the battleground category. If several recent polls from Gallup are correct, then John Kerry is in worse shape than even I imagined.

Missouri (Bush 55%, Kerry 41%): Okay...get the picture? Missouri isn't even going to be close this time around.

Ohio (Bush 52% Kerry 43%): What can I say? If Kerry is down by 9 points in the Buckeye State, then he's probably going to have to spend many millions here to bring the state back into play, and I don't know if it's even going to work then.

Pennsylvania (Bush 48%, Kerry 47%): Well, what do you know? Pennsylvania and Oregon, two states which President Bush lost in 2000, are now leaning narrowly to him. That's an extra 28 electoral votes which Kerry cannot do without on election night.

The internals of this poll are really great, if you're a Bush supporter. On the economy issue, President Bush wollops Kerry by 10 points in Missouri and edges him by 1 in Ohio. You know, the state where the MSM claims that the economy is really going to hurt the President.

On the issue of terrorism, President Bush demolishes Kerry in Missouri by a 30 point margin, crushes him in Ohio by a 22 point margin, and fairly obliterates him in Pennsylvania by a 25 point margin. (Terrorism, given Pennsylvania's demographics, could be the issue which tips the state to President Bush.)

Details to be found at this location. IMPORTANT: If you are one of our liberal readers, please remember to take some sedatives BEFORE clicking on the link...

[Drbio]

hahaha.....Bush support is steamrolling ahead!

[madape]

[madape]

Bush Gains Solid Lead, Poll Shows
President Strengthens Position on Key Campaign Issues

By Richard Morin and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, September 9, 2004; 6:02 PM

President Bush emerged from his New York convention with a solid lead over Democratic challenger John F. Kerry, strengthening his position on virtually every important issue in the campaign and opening up a clear advantage over his rival on many of the personal characteristics that influence voters in presidential elections, according to a Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

For the first time in a Post-ABC news poll this year, a majority of likely voters now say they plan to vote for Bush. Among those most likely to vote in November, Bush holds a 52 percent to 43 percent lead over Kerry, with independent Ralph Nader receiving 2 percent of the hypothetical vote. Among all registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 50 percent to 44 percent.

A smaller sample in 19 battleground states, where strategists believe the election will be decided, Bush holds a narrower lead among likely voters, 50 percent to 46 percent. Among all voters, the two candidates are running even, suggesting that voter turnout again will be the key to victory in November.

The survey highlights the damage to Kerry during the month of August and the Republican convention. Bush got a 4-point "bounce" up in support among likely voters from his convention, about what Kerry received from his convention in July. But in other important ways, the poll suggests that Republicans achieved virtually all their objectives last week in New York, particularly in their goal of making Kerry less acceptable to voters.

What won't be known for another few weeks is whether Bush's gains are transitory, as Kerry's were in the immediate aftermath of his convention. The setback to Kerry has generated concern among Democrats about the state of his candidacy, but four years ago, Bush trailed then vice president Al Gore by 8 points and later 10 points in tracking polls taken by the Gallup Organization in mid-September 2000 and came back to win the election.

In the five weeks since the Democratic convention, Kerry's favorability rating has plunged, after attacks on his Vietnam service from a group of anti-Kerry Vietnam veterans, self-inflicted wounds by the candidate over Iraq and a relentless pounding from Republicans. Kerry's favorable rating fell from 51 percent at the beginning of August to just 36 percent in the latest Post-ABC News poll, while his unfavorable rating rose from 32 percent to 42 percent.

Bush's favorable rating rose slightly to 51 percent and his overall approval rating rose another notch to 52 percent. An identical percentage said Bush deserves a second term. Strategists in both campaigns have watched Bush's approval rating closely through the year as an indicator of his reelection prospects. That rating fell below 50 percent in May and has been inching its way back up over the summer. History suggests that Bush will be formidable in November if his approval rating remains in the low-50s, vulnerable if he is in the 40s.

The poll suggests that Bush and the Republicans successfully, but perhaps only temporarily, altered the issues agenda in the past 10 days, shifting public attention away from the economy, where voters have generally given Bush negative marks, to terrorism, where the president has always been stronger.

[dude1394]

Must have pained them to write this and they tried so hard to put a spin on it.

[Drbio]

The folks at the WaPo are in denial. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

[Usually Lurkin]

Drudge:

KERRY POLL RANK LOWER THAN DUKAKIS, JESSE JACKSON, MARTHA STEWART, PUTIN
Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06:00 ET
In last week's WASHINGTONPOSTWABCNEWS Poll, John F. Kerry was viewed favorably by 36 percent of registered voters, down 18 points over the past six months.
But just how low Kerry's standing has fallen cannot be appreciated fully without comparing his standing with that of other household names in GALLUP polls over the years, the POST's Dana Milbank reported on Tuesday.
Kerry finds himself in a dead heat with Martha Stewart and Joseph McCarthy, and behind Herbert Hoover -- although he narrowly beats O.J. Simpson.
Michael Jordan: 83 (2000)
Tony Blair: 76 (2003)
Pope John Paul II: 73 (2003)
Democratic Party: 54 (2004)
John Ashcroft: 49 (2003)
Michael Dukakis: 47 (1988)
Prince Charles: 45 (2003)
Herbert Hoover: 43 (1944)
Jesse Jackson: 38 (2003)
Vladimir Putin: 38 (2003)
John Kerry: 36 (2004)
Martha Stewart: 36 (2004)
Joseph McCarthy: 35 (1954)
END

[madape]

Electoral votes -

Bush 291
Kerry 238

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[madape]

the state of New York is now officially IN PLAY

New York (31 electoral votes)-A new Quinnipiac Poll reports that President Bush has cut John Kerry's lead from 18 points to just 6. Kerry leads with 47%, President Bush wins 41%, and Ralph Nader 4%. The President's approval rating has climbed to 43%.

While it is still too early to say if New York will be a fall battleground, it must be said that this is a very bad sign for the Kerry campaign, given the fact that the last two Democratic Presidential candidates carried the state by 28 and 25 percentage points.

Florida (27 electoral votes)-A SurveyUSA Poll reports the President leads in the Sunshine state 51%-46%. Obviously the President is now over 50%, a crucial benchmark. However the margin is not wide enough yet that Republicans should become overconfident.

Nevada (4 electoral votes)-President Bush leads here 51%-47%, according to SurveyUSA. For some reason, SurveyUSA is not mirroring the findings of other post-GOP convention polls showing a large bounce for the President in battleground states.

In Georgia, Strategic Vision reports the President now holds a 22 point lead over his opponent. In Wisconsin, the same polling firm gives the President a 5 point edge with the internal polling data quite good from the Republican perspective.

[reeds]

Kerry is famous for his comebacks..he will shock the world...

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: reeds
Kerry is famous for his comebacks..he will shock the world...

He's already shocked the world with his ignorance.

[dude1394]

Originally posted by: reeds
Kerry is famous for his comebacks..he will shock the world...

You are dreaming dude. He's famous for comebacks in MASSACHUSETTS!!!! He's never, ever,ever had to appeal to anything other than hard-left. He's toastie.

[dude1394]

Originally posted by: madape
the state of New York is now officially IN PLAY

Absolutely shocking. So have the dems managed to disenfranchise the nader voters in ny??

[dude1394]

This will help.

Teresa Heinz Kerry, thought by many to be missing a few screws, apparently said the following to people preparing packages for hurricane victims...

"
"Clothing is wonderful, but let them go naked for a while, at least the kids.."

[dude1394]

A few more:

Bush Makes Headway in Must-Win Kerry States
NJ: Survey USA (9/12 - 9/14) 734 LV: Bush 49, Kerry 45 | Bush + 4
IL: Survey USA (9/12 - 9/14) 618 LV: Kerry 49, Bush 45 | Kerry + 4
MN: CNN/Gallup/USAT (9/11-9/14) 675 LV: Bush 45, Kerry 45, Nader 5 | TIE
PA: ABC News (9/9-9/12) LV: Bush 49, Kerry 46, Nader 2| Bush +3

[dude1394]

And this little nugget. OUCH....

President, FL
9/14/2004
Bush (R)
51%
Kerry (D)
45%

[u2sarajevo]

Originally posted by: dude1394
This will help.

That is unfair.... she was trying to get the focus on relief packages being sent with food and water as opposed to clothing... Don't twist her words out of context.... She should be commended for leading the relief effort, not bashed for it.

""Clothing is wonderful, but let them go naked for a while, at least the kids," said Heinz Kerry, the wife of Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry (news - web sites). "Water is necessary, and then generators, and then food, and then clothes." "

[dude1394]

Don't rail at me dude. All I'm saying is that it's not going to help. It feeds into her persona as a nut.

[Mavdog]

it's close.
it's going to pivot on the debates IMO.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Voter opinion in the presidential race has seesawed dramatically in the first two weeks of September. Following a successful nominating convention, George W. Bush broke open a deadlocked contest and jumped out to a big lead over John Kerry. However, polling this past week finds that Bush's edge over his Democratic rival has eroded. Reflecting this new volatility in the race, the size of the swing vote has increased slightly since the summer, rather than contracting as it typically does as the election approaches.

The latest national survey of 1,972 registered voters by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted in two waves over a seven-day period, finds that the president's large margin of support in the initial period (Sept. 8-10) dissipated in the polling conducted Sept. 11-14. Among all registered voters Bush initially led Kerry by 52%-40%. However, the second wave of interviewing shows the race even among registered voters, at 46%-46%. When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% in the second wave, down from a huge 54%-38% advantage he held in the first wave of interviews.

The shifting voter sentiment observed in this poll reflects a number of cross currents in public opinion. Hard-hitting attacks against the Democratic challenger throughout August and during the Republican convention took a heavy toll on Kerry's personal image. Kerry's positive support waned, fewer voters expressed confidence in him to deal with major issues, and perceptions of him as a 'flip-flopper' rose noticeably.

In contrast, Bush improved his personal image in early September and erased or reduced his rival's advantage on most issues. At the same time, however, Bush showed continued vulnerability on Iraq and the economy. A plurality of the public still disapproved of the president's stewardship of the economy. While opinion of his handling of Iraq has inched up since the early summer, nearly six-in-ten voters (58%) say it is not clear what Bush will do about Iraq if he is reelected.

As more time has passed since the Aug. 30-Sept.2 Republican convention, Kerry's unfavorable ratings have receded somewhat. And while Kerry no longer holds the big advantage he once had on most issues, his standing relative to Bush has rebounded slightly on the economy.

The second wave of polling also finds less acceptance of Republican criticism of the Democratic candidate. Fewer voters agree with the statement "John Kerry changes his mind too much." Fewer think the chances of terrorism would increase if Kerry is elected. In addition, a substantial majority of voters (66%) believe Vice President Cheney went too far when he suggested recently that risk of terrorism would increase if voters "make the wrong choice." That opinion remained steady through the polling period.

Yet in several other areas, the Democratic contender has not recaptured the ground he lost in August. A majority of the electorate (52%) believes Bush can best handle the situation in Iraq, while 40% choose Kerry. And Bush's advantage over Kerry on dealing with the threat of terrorism, which widened considerably in the Sept. 8-10 survey, remains undiminished.

Bush's biggest personal asset is his strong leadership image. By roughly two-to-one (58%-30%) voters say the phrase "strong leader" describes Bush rather than Kerry, and that view remained steady through the polling period. Moreover, Bush's supporters cite his leadership abilities as a basis of their vote far more often than did President Clinton's supporters during his reelection campaign in 1996, or former President Bush's backers four years earlier.

The firm commitment of the president's constituency also stands out. George W. Bush registers a higher proportion of strong support than any other candidate in elections dating back to 1988. In contrast, Kerry's supporters have lost some zeal since early August, and more continue to say they are voting against Bush rather than for Kerry.

Kerry's slippage in the post-convention polls also has undermined confidence in his chances of victory, including among Democrats. The percentage of all voters anticipating a Bush victory climbed from 44% in August to 60% in September, a figure that held steady through the polling period. Among Democrats, the number predicting a Kerry victory fell from 66% in August to 43% this month.

The tightening race underscores the stakes for both candidates in the upcoming presidential debates. The public remains highly engaged in the campaign: 71% say they have given a lot of thought to the election and 40% are following election news very closely, up from just 22% four years ago.

This increased attentiveness is carrying over into heightened interest in the debates. Six-in-ten voters (61%) say it is very likely they will watch the debates between Bush and Kerry, which is significantly higher than debate interest in the last two elections.

In general, campaign 2004 continues to get high marks from the voters. Nearly all voters (90%) view the campaign as "important," and 63% believe it has been "informative." Moreover, the number who describe the campaign as "interesting" increased sharply over the summer, from 31% in June to 50% currently. Reflecting the campaign's recent nasty turn, however, more voters also characterize the campaign as "too negative" Â* 62% say that now, compared with 46% two months ago.

Other key findings of the survey:

Slightly more voters think that President Bush did not meet all of his service obligations while in the National Guard than say he did (43% vs. 33%). But only about a quarter (26%) say it bothers them.

John Edwards' favorable ratings have declined Â* from 58% in August to 49% Â* and he runs about even with Dick Cheney in a match-up of vice-presidential running mates (46% Edwards/44% Cheney).

The questions surrounding Bush and Kerry's service during the Vietnam war have drawn much more attention from committed voters than swing voters. Fewer than one-in-five swing voters are following either story very closely.

More than half of all voters Â* and 64% of swing voters Â* agree with the statement: "It's not clear what George W. Bush is going to do about Iraq if he is reelected."

This month's tragedy at a Russian school, during which scores of children were killed by Chechen separatists, has drawn wide attention in the U.S. About the same number followed the school tragedy very closely as followed the opening of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

[Drbio]

More liberal rose colored glasses. All of the MSM polls and the reliable outlets are showing a solid 8 or more point cushion. It will grow after the debates.

[dude1394]

Also heard a rumour that gallup will be bad for kedwards.

[dude1394]

Don Imus interviews HIS candidate.

Bush aides said Mr. Kerry is trying to have it all ways on Iraq, seeking to please both the anti-war and anti-Hussein factions within his party.

"Today," said Bush campaign spokesman Steve Schmidt, "John Kerry's position on Iraq descended into complete incoherence."

Mr. Imus seemed to agree.

"I was just back in my office banging my head on the jukebox," Mr. Imus said. "This is my candidate, and ... I don't know what he's talking about."

He's not the only one.

[dude1394]

UH OH...Ivan(or maybe it was bush) has taken out kerry. Look at bottom right.

[dude1394]

Wow what a wide disparity between polls. I was looking at the PEW internals and they seem kind of whacky.

gallup

A new poll from the Pew Research Center said the "bounce" that seemed to propel Bush to a lead just after the Republican convention had disappeared. But he was ahead by double digits in another survey.

The Pew poll found the race at 46-46 among registered voters, and 47-46 Bush among likely voters. A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 3 percent.

[dude1394]

GALLUP SHOWS BUSH BLOWOUT: 14 POINT LEAD OVER KERRY

[Mavdog]

yep, I should have expected it.
Pew, a group beyond reproach and as fair minded as they come, is demeaned for not singing the company line and providing data that shows a dead heat.
very revealing.

[dude1394]

You tell me md... Pew poll on sept 8-10 has bush up 52-40. Then Sept 11-14 has them tied 46-46. Although most pundits think that Sept 11 would be a positive for bush.

However Gallup has these two polls.
Today's Gallup poll:
Bush 54
Kerry 40

The previous Gallup poll:
Bush 52
Kerry 45

You tell me which one looks like the outlier.

[Drbio]

Geez. If you would even concede the most basic obvious points you might not be discounted as a fool so often doogie.

[Mavdog]

Originally posted by: Drbio
Geez. If you would even concede the most basic obvious points you might not be discounted as a fool so often doogie.

and what "obvious point" would that be?

I posted a reputable poll groups latest stats, and get "More liberal rose colored glasses" which clearly gives no credibility to Pew, and then "wacky" in describing the results.

The "obvious point" that needs conceding is the fact that the race isn't a blow out as some have euphorically claimed above, that the contest is close due to the view that many voters have about Bush's performance...negative.

It's no coincidence that Bush has tried to silence the criticism of his record in Iraq by wrapping the issue ina cloak of Patriotism. Any criticism now becomes a verbal attack on our country, and voila! nobody talks about it.

It won't work (hopefully).

I do see you agree with me that the election may very well be determined by the candidates performance in the debates.

[Mavdog]

here's a second poll that shows the race has tightened.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Harris Poll® #66, September 16, 2004

Bush’s Convention Bounce Vanishes as Race Tightens
Kerry and Bush almost equal among likely voters, as slender majority believes Bush does not deserve to be re-elected.

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – September 16, 2004 – The latest Harris Poll finds that Senator John Kerry and President George W. Bush are now enjoying almost equal levels of support. Immediately after the Republican convention in New York, several polls showed President Bush jumping ahead of Senator Kerry with a clear lead of between six and 11 percentage points. This "convention bounce" has now disappeared.

These are some of the results of a nationwide poll of 1,018 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive® between September 9 and 13, 2004. It seems that the short-term effects of the Republican convention have worn off. The poll shows Senator Kerry leading 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters. Obviously, this small lead is well within the possible sampling error of the survey (however, it would be incorrect to label even a one-point lead, as some media have done in the past, a "statistical dead heat").

One reason that President Bush is no longer ahead is that a slender 51 percent to 45 percent majority does not believe that he deserves to be re-elected.

TABLE 1

BUSH VS. KERRY

Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"

If respondent said "not sure/refused":

Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"

Base: Likely Voters


April June August Now

George W. Bush 46 51 47 47

John Kerry 43 41 47 48

Ralph Nader 8 6 3 2

Bush Lead +3 +10 0 -1


NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2

DOES BUSH DESERVE TO BE RE-ELECTED?

"Based on who he is and his record, do you think George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected for another four years?"

Base: Likely Voters

Deserves to be re-elected
45

Does not deserve to be re-elected
51

Not sure/Refused
4


Methodology

The Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United States between September 9 and 13, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults (ages 18+), 803 of whom are likely voters. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of ±3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. The statistical precision for the sample of likely voters is ±4 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. population of likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

[u2sarajevo]

Question for those of you who may know the answer (Dooby?)"

I have always questioned the validity of polls and here is why... I vote in every election, be it local... state... national. Not once have I ever been contacted to participate in a poll. Not once.

So who is polled? How do you get polled?

[Mavdog]

Originally posted by: u2sarajevo
Question for those of you who may know the answer (Dooby?)"

I have always questioned the validity of polls and here is why... I vote in every election, be it local... state... national. Not once have I ever been contacted to participate in a poll. Not once.

So who is polled? How do you get polled?

don't ya just love ask.com?

here's where you can find out about polls and pollsters U2...

Link to pollster's trade org

edit: try www.ncpp.org

[u2sarajevo]

That link gave me a 'permission denied' message.

ask.com gave me one promising link but ended up not even close to answering my question.

[madape]

"I don't know what you are talking about in terms of the Bush bounce." - John Kerry

In other news, the DNC is considering dumping the traditional symbol of the Democratic party, the donkey, for a new mascot.

[Dooby]

Originally posted by: u2sarajevo
Question for those of you who may know the answer (Dooby?)"

I have always questioned the validity of polls and here is why... I vote in every election, be it local... state... national. Not once have I ever been contacted to participate in a poll. Not once.

So who is polled? How do you get polled?

Polling works. Generally. People don't realize how cash strapped most campaigns are. Polls are very expensive. A congressional campaign might spend more on polling than rent. If polling didn't work, candidates wouldn't do polls. Agree?

To answer your question, look at the Harris poll mentioned above. They polled 1,018 adults (ages 18+), 803 of which are "likely voters" In a country of around 300 million, where something like 100 million vote in presidential elections. that gets you a margin of error of 3 or 4 percent. So, OK, you have just under about a 1 in a thousand chance of getting polled (rough estimate 1000 likely voters out of 100 million voters) in a presidential poll. In the last 2 months of a presidential campaign, I would guess there are 3-4 polls being done a week. That means in a presidential election, you have about a 3 percent chance of getting polled. Truth is that it is probably much less than that.

The other big point is margin of error. People point to margin of error for all sorts of things, but usually the wrong ones. It is often used to show that a lead is “statistically insignificant.� Usually, you hear that attached to a poll that shows Bush with a 1 or two point lead. Others use it as an indication of accuracy and that is true, but not significantly so. First, I have been told, as a general rule that if a poll has a margin of error of greater than 4.5%, then ignore it.

Modern technology has made polling more difficult, conceivably more erratic and thus more inaccurate. For example, increased use of unlisted numbers, call blocking, caller ID, and call waiting make telephone polling more difficult. It has been theorized that this arbitrarily hurts men and also republicans in polling. The theory being that men and people with greater disposable income who are likely republicans are more inclined to use such technologies. So, if you are one of these people, you may have been contacted and don't know it.

Also language barriers can historically cause problems.

Also, bear in mind, that for Pres. races, nobody outside Texas does polling in Texas. Newsflash: Bush is going to win Texas. There is a lot of state specific polling being done in places other than Texas. The DMN may do a poll or two, but why would anyone else bother?

Now, I said polling works-generally. And I mean that. But there are bad polls out there and every poll is different in its methodology and for other reasons as well. For example, Zogby did a poll a week or so ago in Florida. In Florida, during a hurricane. Genius. Strangely, that was also the only poll in a month that showed Kerry with a lead. During hurricane season, polls in Florida will be all over the map. So much so that doing actual polling is useless. But news organizations will continue to do them because they budgeted for them. But the truth is nobody knows for sure.

Not to pick on Zogby, but he skews his polling to fit his way of thinking. He tries desperately to have a poll that polls equal numbers of republicans and democrats and independents, which is logic that is fundamentally flawed. There are a lot of “republicans� and “democrats� independents that identify themselves as independents. And from their perspective they are, but in reality they are not. Plus it reinforces the notion that we live in a 50-50 nation of equal reps and dems or a 1/3 nation with an equal number of partisans and independents. Bear in mind that there is no evidence to support this thinking, it is just an assumption. And an assumption that is probably inaccurate.

Another issue is “likely voter� and figuring out what the hell that is. To some, it is a person that has voted in the past. Problem is that people move around and it is difficult to track that info on voting lists. It also doesn’t track people who are newly registered voters. Other pollsters rely on people to say they are going to vote. But that doesn’t work too well, for the same reasons I say I am going to mow the lawn this weekend. I’d suggest erring on the side of caution and using only people that have a history of voting and assume that new voters will break along the same percentages, but that is by no means perfect.

If you listen to the Ticket in the morning they like to rip on democrat barb the traffic chick. The repeat things she says like, those polls, like the Gallup poll, as “snapshot� polls, aren’t as accurate as other “scientific� polls, like Rasmussen. Uhhh…OK. First, all polling is based on statistics, which I suppose is a science, but it isn’t like you mix in a Botany with it. Weirdest thing I ever heard. Second, “snapshot� polls are more accurate than tracking polls.

Rasmussen is a “tracking� poll and Gallup is a “snapshot� poll. I’ll agree with that. I’ll further agree that each one does exactly what it claims to do. But each has its limitations. A snapshot is just that, a snapshot-a photograph accurately reflects a scene, but five minutes later the scene has changed, so it ceases to be as accurate. A tracking poll tracks changes in the race over time fairly well, but it also tends to lag behind other polling. The reason being that it uses number continually over a period of days and there may be a superceding event in the interim that doesn’t reflect in some of the polling. Both serve a purpose, but comparisons are difficult. It isn’t apples and oranges, but more like apples and pears. Follow?

The best way to get a clear picture of the election is to look at the most recent polls and blend them together the way realclearpolitics.com does, although there is no scientific basis behind it. Yes, I know RCP is a right-wing website, but they do offer the latest polling information. It is also a good idea to compare a poll with earlier polls by the same organization. Pollsters rarely change methodology in the middle of an election (although Rasmussen made their previously schedule change after the Republican convention). This way, it easy to spot aberrations in polling, which sometimes happen.

I, personally put a lot of stock in polls. Primarily, because professionals put a lot of stock in them. And I tend to think that if they were useless, then the money would get spent elsewhere.

[u2sarajevo]

Wow. Thanks Dooby. That is alot of great information.

[chumdawg]

Great read, Dooby.

Here's an interesting indicator of sorts. It's an electronic futures market hosted by the University of Iowa business school. It works like a stock market. You buy a "share" of a candidate, and you collect one dollar if your candidate wins the election. You collect zero if he loses. Bush is currently trading at around 60 cents, Kerry around 40. They were trading close to dead even before the Republican convention.

That's the winner-takes-all market. They also have a market that pays you off one penny per share for every percentage point the candidate earns of the popular vote. Current quotes have Bush at 50.6 cents per share, Kerry at 49.3 cents.

This is real money people are throwing around here. (It sure sounds like gambling to me! Interesting that this stuff is legal.) Apparently it's been pretty accurate over the years.

Iowa Electronic Markets

[dude1394]

Polling is pretty weird. I think he's up about 5-7 points. RCP is a pretty good indication using averages of the polls. Bush seems however to be taking a pretty good lead in the ohio, florida states. Pennsylvania is closer. Kerry has to take pennsylvania and one of the other two or he's toast.