The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung Yet...(NOTE: If you aren't an optimist, you might want to skip this thread) - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 10:15 AM

As of this morning (3-15-04), the Western Conference standings look like this:

1. Sacramento 49-17
2. Minnesota 46-21
3. San Antonio 44-23
4. Los Angeles 43-23
5. Dallas 42-24
6. Memphis 41-25
7. Houston 39-26

Several things really struck me as interesting as I looked at the remaining schedules for the respective teams...

1. The Kings don't have the Pacific Division sewed up yet.

The Kings have a fairly difficult schedule coming down the stretch, and the Lakers have a fairly soft one. I still see the Kings winning the division, but if the Kings can't get it done on the road, the Lakers very well might catch them.

2. The Midwest Division is still up for grabs as well.

And when I say up for grabs, I'm not just talking about the Wolves and Spurs. The Mavs and perhaps even the Grizzlies could foreseeably get into the mix.

The Wolves have 6 home games remaining and 9 road games remaining. Only 2 of the home games are pretty sure wins (Washington and Seattle), with the remaining 4 being stout, divisional opponents (San Antonio, Memphis, Denver, Utah). The road games could be treacherous, as they have to face San Antonio, LA, Denver, Houston, Sacto, and Memphis away. The remaining three road games should be wins (at GS, at LAC, at Phoenix), but you never know. I have the Wolves pegged as going around 8-7 the rest of the way.

The Spurs have 9 home games remaining and 6 road games remaining. Sounds favorable, and it is. The road games include very winnable games at GS and LAC but also include difficult games at Utah, Portland, LAL, and Minnesota. Of the home games, the Spurs have some easy ones (Boston, Phoenix, Seattle) and some challenging ones (Portland, Denver, Cleveland, Minnesota, Sacramento, Detroit). I have the Spurs pegged as going about 12-3.

The Mavs have 8 home games and 8 road games left. The road games are a mix of tough ones (New Jersey, Indiana, Miami, Houston) and games they "should" win (GS, Seattle, Philly, Orlando). The home games are also a mix of tough (Sacto, Cleveland, Utah, Memphis) and "easy" (Seattle, Phoenix, Atlanta, Boston). While we all know that it's tough to gauge the Mavs' performance on the road this year, I think they finish strong on the road, and we know they're a wrecking ball at home. I have the Mavs pegged as going about 14-2 for the final stretch.

The Grizz have 8 home games and 8 road games the rest of the way. Without listing the games, I see them going about 11-5 the rest of the way.

The Rockets have 6 home games and 11 road games the rest of the way. I have them pegged at about 9-8.

If my predictions prove to be correct, the final standings in the Midwest Division would look like this:

Dallas 56-26
San Antonio 56-26
Minnesota 54-28
Memphis 52-30
Houston 48-34

The Mavs would win the division via the tiebreaker with the Spurs.

Moral of this rather lengthy post: The Fat Lady Hasn't Sung Yet!

dalmations202 · 03-15-2004, 10:28 AM

If the Mavs go 14-2, they deserve to win the Midwest Division.

LRB · 03-15-2004, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by: dalmations202
If the Mavs go 14-2, they deserve to win the Midwest Division.

That would mean that Minny would have to go no better than 10-5. We'd only deserve the Midwest if the Tpuppies coorperate. It's certainly possible though.

MikeB · 03-15-2004, 10:35 AM

Way to keep the faith KG!

I agree that nothing has been decided...especially the Midwest. Two weeks ago Minny looked to be the favorite and an almost certain division champ...then they hit a slump. San Antonio has played over their heads since TD has been out but I believe it is starting to take its toll and if he is not able to come back next week they will slowly start to slide. Memphis has so many players...they just won 7 in a row without 2 starters. I do not want to face them in the 1st round for sure...dangerous team IMHO.

SA going 12-3 down the stretch definitely depends on how soon TD gets back and how effective he is.
Dallas going 14-2 the rest of the way is a little "rose colored"...My guess is that your favorite color of Kool Aid is Blue[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]
Minny is paying for playing Cassell and Spree all those minutes earlier in the season also while trying to fit in 3 new guys...I think as it gets closer they will start to "think" too hard...even if they manage a #3 seed and get Memphis it won't be a cake walk by any means.

Keep hope alive...and GOOO MAVS!

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Dallas going 14-2 the rest of the way is a little "rose colored"...My guess is that your favorite color of Kool Aid is Blue

Did you read the note in the title of the thread? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

Honestly, I don't see any reason why they can't. Looking at the home games, the Mavs should win all of them, but I'll concede they could lose 1, which would make them 7-1. As for the road games, their road record this year doesn't suggest they could go 7-1 on the road, but history does. They own the Heat, Nets, and Rockets on the road over the past couple of years, and there's no reason to think they shouldn't win those games. 7-1 on the road over the last 8 is very doable.

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by: LRB

Quote:

Originally posted by: dalmations202
If the Mavs go 14-2, they deserve to win the Midwest Division.

That would mean that Minny would have to go no better than 10-5. We'd only deserve the Midwest if the Tpuppies coorperate. It's certainly possible though.

I really smell a collapse from the Wolves. The Spurs will beat them both times, and they're going to take losses in LA, Houston, and Sacramento for sure, with a probable loss in Memphis and a possible one in Denver. That gives them 6, possibly 7 losses, even assuming that they win the rest of their home games. So, if you want me to be generous, they could go 9-6. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

Murphy3 · 03-15-2004, 10:59 AM

If the Mavs can play some consistent ball, they do have a legit chance to move up. However, they need to build on what they've done the past two games. They simply cannot afford anymore slips.

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by: Murphy3
If the Mavs can play some consistent ball, they do have a legit chance to move up. However, they need to build on what they've done the past two games. They simply cannot afford anymore slips.

Agreed.

MikeB · 03-15-2004, 11:04 AM

KG

I don't see any reason that they couldn't do it...just the way they have played recently and all year on the road. If they could go 5-3 or 6-2 on the road that would be cause for celebration. They could very well win all of the home games as Sacto is not as good on the road as they are at home. 14-2 is very doable but if the Mavs continue to not have the desire needed on the road they will be lucky to go 3-5 which would mean an 11-5 finish and a 53-29 record which could well end up as a 5th seed.
I am right there with you though KG...finish strong...the Division is in Site!

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 11:09 AM

MikeB - Legitimate point about the desire on the road, but the Mavs seem to have figured something out in the last couple of games, albeit against bad teams. We didn't really expect them to win in Sacto anyway, so perhaps it was good that they got spanked (to wake them up). Since that game, the Mavs have defended and rebounded the ball. If they keep doing those two things, a strong finish is inevitable.

digit · 03-15-2004, 11:33 AM

The Wolves are 5-5 in their last ten games and their schedule even keeps getting tougher, only Denver has a worse record (4-6) among Western playoff candidates regarding the last ten games...Mavs are 6-4 in that department...if the Mavs get their act together they have still a realistic shot at the Division title..at least getting a better seed than No. 5...

My positive thinking crystal ball sees it like that
1. Sacto
2. Mavs
3. Lakers
4. Spurs
5. Minny
6. Memphis
7. Houston
8. Denver

That means prolly another first round exit for the Wolves and a good match-up for the Mavs against the Rockets...

...good upbeat thread...thanks KG..

OutletPass · 03-15-2004, 11:58 AM

Quote:

They simply cannot afford anymore slips.

Didn't KG's original analysis have the Mavs going 17-1 after the Sacto game...?

That's definitely "no-slip" territory !!

If the Big 3 and AJ can lead the way....and the role players continue to contribute, it can be done...really, really difficult...but possible. I'm not overly optimistic, but I'd sure love to see that happen.

I wonder what the media will say if they go 17-1 to close the season ?

Ah, hell...they'll probably say Nash's hair is too long or something equally banal.

Chiwas · 03-15-2004, 11:59 AM

54-28 continues being my optimistic picture.

And the 5th. We don't have for more.

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 12:08 PM

I think even a pessimistic view has the Mavs going 12-4 the rest of the way.

MikeB · 03-15-2004, 12:13 PM

Quote:

I wonder what the media will say if they go 17-1 to close the season ?

The media will say that we play No D and can't win a title. Same old same old.

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 12:14 PM

They'll proclaim that the Mavs will struggle with the Rockets in the 1st round because they don't defend and, after all, defense wins championships. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

dalmations202 · 03-15-2004, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: kg_veteran
They'll proclaim that the Mavs will struggle with the Rockets in the 1st round because they don't defend and, after all, defense wins championships. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

The Mavs could sweep a team 4-0 in the playoffs and hold them to under 80 and the media would still say this.

Chiwas · 03-15-2004, 12:44 PM

My pessimistic view is 52-30 (10-6).

And maybe the 6th, then.

Murphy3 · 03-15-2004, 01:13 PM

I hate that the Mavs lost to the Rockets. I definitely don't want to see the Rockets get the Mavs monkey off of their back.

Well, if you're looking for an outrageous stretch to end the season, Dirk must continue to do what he did last night. Yes, he shot 12-23 from the floor but what was even more impressive was the amount of times he got to the line. Dirk simply must decide to take games over.

Fin must be a very close second fiddle.
Nash cannot afford to throw up anymore stinkers like he did against Sacramento
The Mavs must have consistent heavy minutes from their 'scrubs' (which will lead to good rebounding and defense)
Jamison contributions....offensive rebounds and easy put backs, and nice little floaters in the lane.

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 01:20 PM

I agree with that completely, Murph.

Nash needs to be aggressive offensively rather than just dribbling around. When he's looking for his shot a bit, the team is much better. I've yet to see a point guard that can stop Nash off the dribble, and if he's looking to shoot some the opponent can't just play him for the passing angles.

Dirk must dominate. When he's paired with a "dirty work" guy inside, that gives him his best chance to do so. Which leads to...

The Three Heads and Najera. I guess I could call them the Four Heads, but that doesn't have the same ring to it. One of those guys has to be in the game at ALL times. How the minutes break down for a particular game will depend upon matchups, but I don't want to see any "three scoring forward" lineups out there.

My suggestion to Nellie in that regard...

C - Bradley/Williams/Fortson/Najera 48 (Divide it as you see fit, Nellie)
F - Nowitzki 38, split the other 58 minutes between Jamison, Howard, and Walker, depending on who's playing well
G - Finley 36, Nash 34, give the other 26 minutes to Howard and Daniels

Murphy3 · 03-15-2004, 01:22 PM

Nash needs to be prepared to play 40 minutes every night. Hopefully the mavs can blow a few times out here and there, but now's not the time to be a player that needs prolonged rests during the game.

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 01:25 PM

That's true, but I have no problem with him sitting for 12-14 mpg.

Murphy3 · 03-15-2004, 01:35 PM

Oh sure, I have no problem with him getting his time off as well. I'm actually hoping that he the Mavs would be able to play him only 30-33 minutes throughout the remainder of the season. Of course, alot of depends upon Daniels and how well he handles the pressure. Hell, he's proving to be more valuable than Walker down the stretch run of this season.

On a side note, I guess Best and Delk are firmly planted in the DogHouse.

kg_veteran · 03-15-2004, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: Murphy3
Oh sure, I have no problem with him getting his time off as well. I'm actually hoping that he the Mavs would be able to play him only 30-33 minutes throughout the remainder of the season. Of course, alot of depends upon Daniels and how well he handles the pressure. Hell, he's proving to be more valuable than Walker down the stretch run of this season.

On a side note, I guess Best and Delk are firmly planted in the DogHouse.

Delk definitely is. He played his way out of time before he got hurt.

As for Best, I think Nellie just wants to see what you want to see: how Daniels will handle the pressure. He knows that Best can come in and give him 10-15 minutes a night if needed; the upside on Daniels is much higher, though, so we might as well see if he's the third guard of the future on this team or not.

grndmstr_c · 03-15-2004, 02:05 PM

Quote:

As for Best, I think Nellie just wants to see what you want to see: how Daniels will handle the pressure. He knows that Best can come in and give him 10-15 minutes a night if needed; the upside on Daniels is much higher, though, so we might as well see if he's the third guard of the future on this team or not.

I share your intuition on this. Perhaps I'm beginning to sound like a broken record since I don't ever see anyone else comment on it, but Best had turned into a valuable contributor before his injury because of his defensive play, his subtle acceptance of the fact that he is nowhere close to being Dallas' best offensive option, and his rediscovery of his shooting touch after that extremely ugly early season slump. At this point, I think it's clear that Marquis should be on the playoff roster, and I have no doubt these minutes he's getting will pay off later on, but I do hope Best will be given an opportunity to play himself back into the mix. IMO, if he can play like he was before the achilles injury, he should get the backup PG minutes behind Steve in the playoffs, with Marquis around to play minutes at the 1 and 2 in a pinch or a blowout.

Novice#41 · 03-15-2004, 02:36 PM

SeriousSummer · 03-15-2004, 03:05 PM

I may not be as optimistic as some of you, but there's still a chance. My dad always used to say "That's why they play the games."

FilthyFinMavs · 03-15-2004, 06:41 PM

Spurs just came off a lost yesterday and are on a back to back today. When it comes to the losses column we may be tied after tonight. I'm still optimistic about winning the Midwest but i'm going to have to see the Wolve's upcoming schedule. As someone pointed out they are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Very possible.

mavsman55 · 03-15-2004, 08:46 PM

Right now, Dallas has its chance to climb back through the window of opportunity they were shoved out of due to this recent road trip. I sense a bad bad streak on the way for Minnesota, and San Antonio just lost last night. Dallas' last two games were most likely a catalyst to a good streak that I sense is coming their way. Walker will pick up his play (to the best of his abilities) and Nowitzki will start hustling more like he did last night vs. LA Clippers, and Mavs are gonna close off the season strong. I can taste the #3 seed on it's way for Dallas.

Jeremiah · 03-15-2004, 11:30 PM

I certainly am an optimist, but I don't expect the Wolves to fold. I hope the Mavs close the season out extremely well, and I know they can, but let's just say I'm a bit more concerned about them finishing strong than I have been in the last few years.

mavsfanforever · 03-16-2004, 09:15 AM

One more positive note for the mavs is that:

Tpups vs Spurs two games - Win Win situation for the mavs
Tpups vs Kings two games - Win Win
Spurs vs Kings 1 game - win win
Spurs vs lakers 1 game - Win win
kings vs lakers 1 game - win win

Mavs have only one game against top 5 teams in the west and that one is at home. If mavs put their head into it this is a very favourable situation for the mavs.

EricaLubarsky · 03-16-2004, 09:53 PM

I really like that KG posted this. Will we see a new initiative in the last month of the regular season? Probably not, but we are not out of the running.

Chiwas · 03-18-2004, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by: Chiwas
My pessimistic view is 52-30 (10-6).

And maybe the 6th, then.

I'll be positive. I rather will make the 52-30 my optimistic view.

kg_veteran · 03-29-2004, 11:27 AM

To update, the Mavs basically need to win out to have a chance at the division title, and they'd need some help from Minnesota (who would have to go 4-4) and San Antonio (who would have to go 6-3). By my count, they need to go at least 7-2 to ensure the No. 5 seed. I have the Lakers finishing in the No. 3 spot, so the No. 5 is vital.

MikeB · 03-29-2004, 03:48 PM

KG
I think you might be giving the #1 seed to the Kings a bit prematurely. They are only 2 games up on the Lakers and are doing the Texas triangle before going home to face NO and Minny...then they have to play the Lakers but it is at Arco...not that the Lakers care.
The Lakers are seriously hot and even though they don't have a very easy finish(Sac,Hou,SA,Minny and Port twice) they are on a streak and Sac is slumping. If the trends hold here are the top 8 in the west.

1)LAL
2)SA
3)Sac
4)Memphis
5)Minny
6)Dal
7)Hou
8)Port

kg_veteran · 03-29-2004, 04:51 PM

MikeB - I certainly concede the possibility that the Kings could end up in the 3 spot. I just don't see Memphis hurdling the Wolves at all, though. They're going to lose 3-4 games the rest of the way. Minny in the 4 spot wouldn't be bad, though, if Dallas could slide into the 5. That said, I think the most likely scenario is Minny wins the Midwest and is the No. 2 seed.

Max Power · 04-01-2004, 01:11 AM

Dallas(6)x

x-Clinched Playoff Berth

MikeB · 04-02-2004, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by: MikeB
KG
I think you might be giving the #1 seed to the Kings a bit prematurely. They are only 2 games up on the Lakers and are doing the Texas triangle before going home to face NO and Minny...then they have to play the Lakers but it is at Arco...not that the Lakers care.
The Lakers are seriously hot and even though they don't have a very easy finish(Sac,Hou,SA,Minny and Port twice) they are on a streak and Sac is slumping. If the trends hold here are the top 8 in the west.

1)LAL
2)SA
3)Sac
4)Memphis
5)Minny
6)Dal
7)Hou
8)Port

**Update**
1)Lakers 52-23(7 left /finish 7-0)(59-23)...edited to show what I really had...hmmm Lakeshow goes into the playoffs on a 17 game winning streak?
2)Minnesota 52-24(6 left /4-2)(56-26)
3)Sacramento 52-23(7 left/6-1...seems a little strong but thats the way I see it)(58-24)
4)San Antonio 50-25(7 left /5-2)(55-27)
5)Memphis 48-26 (8 left /5-3)(53-29)
6)Dallas 47-28 (7 left /5-2)(52-30)
7)Houston 47-32 (8 left /6-2)(48-34)
8)Portland 39-36 (7 left /4-3)(43-39)
9)Utah 39-36 (7 left/2-5...seems harsh but they still have to convince me they can beat some of these teams)(41-41)
10)Denver 39-37 (6 left /1-5...also harsh but they have a tough finish, again prove it too me)(40-42)

Round 1
Portland @LA
Houston@Minnesota
Dallas@Sacramento
Memphis@San Antonio

SeriousSummer · 04-02-2004, 12:40 PM

Sacramento holds the second tie-breaker over L.A. (conference record), so if the teams finish with the record you predict, Sac gets the one seed and L.A. gets the third--same situation Dallas was in last year.

MikeB · 04-02-2004, 03:19 PM

Ooops...I missed something. I don't think the Lakers lose at all and the Kings will lose to LA.