PGT: Mavs fall to .500

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

- I am 100% okay with him getting that last shot in regulation. The only thing that could lose the game in regulation was a TO, the starting/closing backcourt had already let the W's back into it earlier in the 4th with stupid sloppy play, and there isn't another guy on the active roster, Mayo included, who can match Vince when it comes to getting a shot off with minimal fluff. Look past the fact that it didn't drop through the net, which jumpers do at best only about 45% of the time anyway, and it was a well designed and very well executed play for the situation.

I have to disagree that any play is "well designed" when it involves not a single pass and a fallaway jumper by a guy who hasn't hit a shot in 12+ game minutes and has a very recently injured hamstring.

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

- As for him shooting too much in general, as I alluded to above, this team is really short on guys who can consistently create their own shot...as in, Vince appears to be the only guy who can do it. So for the time being, I'm afraid it's a necessary evil. And as somebody else said, he's not just out their chucking. He's making plays for others, directing traffic on offense, challenging shots on the interior. The guy's doing everything he can out there, and as far as I'm concerned, he's one of the guys keeping the team afloat right now. At least that's the way it looks to me. And judging by RC's reaction to his temporary injury absence last night, I daresay I'm not the only one who sees it that way. If you want him to do less, tell some of the other guys to start doing a little bit more.

I don't disagree with most of this, but my concern isn't about him creating his own shot. He's still a good shot creator, and I wish he'd do it even more. I'm concerned about his unnecessarily quick shooting hand on long-range jumpshots early in the shot clock that really aren't all that open. He is frequently way too eager to shoot with the slightest bit of airspace, even when there's plenty of time left to work for a better shot (whether himself or for one of his teammates).

[grndmstr_c]

Defending the final shot in regulation last night, though, flabbergasts me. It was awful. I find it really hard to believe that a Mayo/Kaman wing/post set, with that much time on the clock, doesn't result in a MUCH better shot.

If the Mavs were in a situation where if the shot doesn't drop they lose, then I would have wanted the ball to end up in one of those two guys' hands. Their percentages are unquestionably better than Vince's. But a missed shot with time running out in that situation just meant overtime and another chance to win, and so the goal had to be, IMO, drawing up a play that had some chance of success (which it did; it was a tough shot, but he got a clean look), and almost no chance of failure, where failure meant coughing it up, or panicking and shooting too early in the clock if the play broke down. I thought Rick and Vince did well by that standard.

Curious if you disagree with my read on what the situation called for, or just think I'm not giving Mayo/Kaman enough credit for being able to collectively execute a safe play in that situation.

I'm concerned about his unnecessarily quick shooting hand on long-range jumpshots early in the shot clock that really aren't all that open. He is frequently way too eager to shoot with the slightest bit of airspace, even when there's plenty of time left to work for a better shot (whether himself or for one of his teammates).

He's got two pet shots that he'll take early in the shot clock that I don't like. One is the 26' three point heave, and the other is the long two when he's still curling around the screen and hasn't yet squared up (if he's squared up I don't mind it). He probably averages 1-2 attempts from that set per night, and I know I've seen one game this year (Utah, maybe?) where I thought he just came out leaning on them to a bench-worthy extent. I'd love it if he'd cut that down to just one every other night. Absolutely.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

He's got two pet shots that he'll take early in the shot clock that I don't like. One is the 26' three point heave, and the other is the long two when he's still curling around the screen and hasn't yet squared up (if he's squared up I don't mind it). He probably averages 1-2 attempts from that set per night, and I know I've seen one game this year (Utah, maybe?) where I thought he just came out leaning on them to a bench-worthy extent. I'd love it if he'd cut that down to just one every other night. Absolutely.

Yep, these are pretty much the shots to which I refer. That early-clock three-point heave off no ball movement absolutely kills me, whether it's VC or anybody else. It's just an absolutely terrible thing to do, as far as I'm concerned.

[Bayliss]

I hated the shot by Vince at the end of the game. Btw, can someone tell me the last game winner that Vince has hit? If Mayo didn't have it rocking in the 4th, I could understand giving Vince the ball. But Mayo was shooting well, and making plays. He was the one that should have caught the ball up top and created a play.

As for the game, Collison hit the shot to tie the game, but other than that he was terrible. And Shart may not be a quality player but he is hustling, attacking, being aggressive off of pick and rolls, and being aggressive on defense. You know he is doing everything that Collison is not doing.

Troy Murphy was solid last night. He hit some shots but he also stayed with people. Don't recall him being overmatched at any point.

Bernard James just does not give up on plays. I wish he was 22 because if he was... I'd say the Mavs found their starting center for the future. He flushes it EVERY chance he gets around the rim. He blocks shots like a madman. And he is the first one going for loose balls on the floor or out of bounds.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

If the Mavs were in a situation where if the shot doesn't drop they lose, then I would have wanted the ball to end up in one of those two guys' hands. Their percentages are unquestionably better than Vince's. But a missed shot with time running out in that situation just meant overtime and another chance to win, and so the goal had to be, IMO, drawing up a play that had some chance of success (which it did; it was a tough shot, but he got a clean look), and almost no chance of failure, where failure meant coughing it up, or panicking and shooting too early in the clock if the play broke down. I thought Rick and Vince did well by that standard.

Curious if you disagree with my read on what the situation called for, or just think I'm not giving Mayo/Kaman enough credit for being able to collectively execute a safe play in that situation.

I think there's merit to the idea that it was safer, I suppose. It's not how I would have approached it, but I could understand it. My question moving forward is whether Rick viewed it that way, or whether he just thinks Vince is their best option right now when they need a bucket.

[BGMaverick9]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I think there's merit to the idea that it was safer, I suppose. It's not how I would have approached it, but I could understand it. My question moving forward is whether Rick viewed it that way, or whether he just thinks Vince is their best option right now when they need a bucket.

Based on an educated guess, they have many options, it's just that Vince was the one that had it at that moment. Right now, they really don't have plays for one set person, but they have plays that lend themselves to multiple options. He said today that they have a mixture of guys that can be involved. He doesn't believe they're going to have a situation while Dirk is out that they'll go to one set guy. It'll be way too easy to gameplan against them at the end if they go that route.

[dallasmavsnews]

The Mavs really need a closer now before Dirk is back. Last year's second option was JET. Carlisle needs Mayo to take last seconds shots.

Also Dirk is out for extra time. Check it out on dallasmavsnews.com

[grndmstr_c]

Something else to note about the lead-up to the VC end-of-regulation play. OJ had checked in at the 7:53 mark of the 4th, and from that point to the end of regulation he went 3 of 6 from the field (no other statistical production to speak of except for a brain-dead TO when he first checked in), with all three made baskets coming on assists, his last made basket coming with ~ 4 minutes left in the quarter, and misses on his last two attempts. He'd scored more than Vince in that time, but he was not on fire by any stretch, and his only success had come as a finisher, not as an offensive creator. None of that's to bash OJ. You need guys who can finish plays that other guys start, and he's looked outstanding in that role for the Mavs so far. But it does make me wonder if some of the people who are thinking that it made no sense to give Vince the ball over OJ aren't getting their timelines mixed up and letting OJ's flurry of buckets in the overtime stanza retrospectively distort their judgment.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Something else to note about the lead-up to the VC end-of-regulation play. OJ had checked in at the 7:53 mark of the 4th, and from that point to the end of regulation he went 3 of 6 from the field (no other statistical production to speak of except for a brain-dead TO when he first checked in), with all three made baskets coming on assists, his last made basket coming with ~ 4 minutes left in the quarter, and misses on his last two attempts. He'd scored more than Vince in that time, but he was not on fire by any stretch, and his only success had come as a finisher, not as an offensive creator. None of that's to bash OJ. You need guys who can finish plays that other guys start, and he's looked outstanding in that role for the Mavs so far. But it does make me wonder if some of the people who are thinking that it made no sense to give Vince the ball over OJ aren't getting their timelines mixed up and letting OJ's flurry of buckets in the overtime stanza retrospectively distort their judgment.

I agree, I don't think Mayo is the obvious choice to give the ball to in an iso situation. That's why I said I'd have liked to see a Kaman/Mayo post up, with the goal to get Kaman a shot with Mayo as the bail out if they dig hard.

[Bayliss]

That driving layup he made was an assisted play?

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by BGMaverick9

Based on an educated guess, they have many options, it's just that Vince was the one that had it at that moment. Right now, they really don't have plays for one set person, but they have plays that lend themselves to multiple options. He said today that they have a mixture of guys that can be involved. He doesn't believe they're going to have a situation while Dirk is out that they'll go to one set guy. It'll be way too easy to gameplan against them at the end if they go that route.

Yet so far--in an admittedly small sample size--he's gone to VC pretty much every time in that situation or similar.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by Bayliss

That driving layup he made was an assisted play?

That driving layup was in overtime.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I agree, I don't think Mayo is the obvious choice to give the ball to in an iso situation. That's why I said I'd have liked to see a Kaman/Mayo post up, with the goal to get Kaman a shot with Mayo as the bail out if they dig hard.

Just as a generic point, hasn't it been your experience watching NBA games that in the majority of end-of period situations where the goal is to score with as little time remaining on the game clock as possible, it's face-ups and perimeter isos rather than post-ups that get called?

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Just as a generic point, hasn't it been your experience watching NBA games that in the majority of end-of period situations where the goal is to score with as little time remaining on the game clock as possible, it's face-ups and perimeter isos rather than post-ups that get called?

I think there are several reasons for this. Less chance of a turnover (as you mentioned), etc. But also, generally teams are running ISOs like that because they have a very, very good player. VC is not a very, very good player. I'm totally fine with running a basic face-up or ISO with Dirk, Kobe, Lebron/Wade, CP3, etc., but I'm much less keen on the idea when we're down into the VC tier.

I'm no coach, and I'm certainly no Carlisle, but my general rule on end-of-game plays is: if you have more than 12-15 seconds and you don't have a clear-cut star player, the play should usually involve at least one pass. If there's no opportunity in the play to make even a single useful pass, maybe the play isn't very well designed. I realize that's really simplistic, so I don't mean it to sound like an absolute. Just a general guideline I like.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I think there are several reasons for this. Less chance of a turnover (as you mentioned), etc. But also, generally teams are running ISOs like that because they have a very, very good player. VC is not a very, very good player. I'm totally fine with running a basic face-up or ISO with Dirk, Kobe, Lebron/Wade, CP3, etc., but I'm much less keen on the idea when we're down into the VC tier.

I'm no coach, and I'm certainly no Carlisle, but my general rule on end-of-game plays is: if you have more than 12-15 seconds and you don't have a clear-cut star player, the play should usually involve at least one pass. If there's no opportunity in the play to make even a single useful pass, maybe the play isn't very well designed. I realize that's really simplistic, so I don't mean it to sound like an absolute. Just a general guideline I like.

I'm thinking it's also time management and vulnerability to double teams. Even a player of present-day Vince's caliber, for example, can pretty reliably get a shot off at a time of his own choosing in a clear-out iso situation (last night was evidence of this), and if he's smart enough to attack to the side where the offensive team has stationed it's preeminent three point marksman (Vince did exactly that), he can probably count on not having to deal with a double team (or if the double does come, on having an accurate shooter to pass the ball to).

Compare that to a post-up. It's easier for the defense to deny the entry pass, easier for them to bring a double-team, and the offense is actually probably looking at at least three passes, not just one (one into the post, one back out when the double comes, and then either a re-post or movement of the ball around the perimeter). Even with guys who are excellent at feeding the post, establishing position in the post, and passing out of double teams in the post, the amount of time that play will take to yield a shot is a relatively uncertain proposition. It's good basketball if clock management isn't an issue, but when the shot has to go up in a specific and narrow time interval, I think it becomes problematic.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I'm thinking it's also time management and vulnerability to double teams. Even a player of present-day Vince's caliber, for example, can pretty reliably get a shot off at a time of his own choosing in a clear-out iso situation (last night was evidence of this), and if he's smart enough to attack to the side where the offensive team has stationed it's preeminent three point marksman (Vince did exactly that), he can probably count on not having to deal with a double team (or if the double does come, on having an accurate shooter to pass the ball to).

Compare that to a post-up. It's easier for the defense to deny the entry pass, easier for them to bring a double-team, and the offense is actually probably looking at at least three passes, not just one (one into the post, one back out when the double comes, and then either a re-post or movement of the ball around the perimeter). Even with guys who are excellent at feeding the post, establishing position in the post, and passing out of double teams in the post, the amount of time that play will take to yield a shot is a relatively uncertain proposition. It's good basketball if clock management isn't an issue, but when the shot has to go up in a specific and narrow time interval, I think it becomes problematic.

How much time was left, though? Wasn't it 15 seconds? Or more? It's not at all uncommon for a post up to start with 15 seconds or less remaining on the shot clock. So what's the major difference here? I feel like we've seen plenty of Dirk post ups late for last second plays. There's certainly been plenty of high post ISO as well, but post ups have also happened.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by jthig32

How much time was left, though? Wasn't it 15 seconds? Or more? It's not at all uncommon for a post up to start with 15 seconds or less remaining on the shot clock. So what's the major difference here? I feel like we've seen plenty of Dirk post ups late for last second plays. There's certainly been plenty of high post ISO as well, but post ups have also happened.

My contention is that it wasn't simply being able to get off a shot in time that was the concern, but rather getting it off and leaving little or no time for GS to get off their own attempt. The perimeter iso pretty much gives the guy with the ball complete control over the clock.

As for Dirk, I feel like the high-post iso/extened elbow face up is the go-to option with him. I've also seen that in the past with Duncan (which is a bit more telling because of Tim's skill in the low post). It'd be interesting to see how the play calls break down according to whether the team with the ball is tied, up a point, or needing a basket just to stay alive.

I will say that I don't see the high post as a desirable option with Kaman in the situation the Mavs were in. He's frequently erratic in his decision making when he gets the ball that far out and the situation calls for anything other than a mid-range jumpshot.

Just one other thing that has occurred to me in the last few days. I'm been pretty happy on balance with Mayo so far - his shot-making has been a god-send with everything else that's been going on - but I'm perhaps in the minority right now in thinking that his offensive game, efficient as it's been, is still less complete than JET's. And one area in particular where I feel I've been noticing a difference is movement off the ball. JET was terrific at that, one of the best, and having a guy who can make himself a dynamic threat off the ball like that, even as a decoy, is a real boon to a coach trying to draw up a play that's more complex than an iso yet still reasonably safe (i.e., not TO-prone).

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I'm thinking it's also time management and vulnerability to double teams. Even a player of present-day Vince's caliber, for example, can pretty reliably get a shot off at a time of his own choosing in a clear-out iso situation (last night was evidence of this), and if he's smart enough to attack to the side where the offensive team has stationed it's preeminent three point marksman (Vince did exactly that), he can probably count on not having to deal with a double team (or if the double does come, on having an accurate shooter to pass the ball to).

Compare that to a post-up. It's easier for the defense to deny the entry pass, easier for them to bring a double-team, and the offense is actually probably looking at at least three passes, not just one (one into the post, one back out when the double comes, and then either a re-post or movement of the ball around the perimeter). Even with guys who are excellent at feeding the post, establishing position in the post, and passing out of double teams in the post, the amount of time that play will take to yield a shot is a relatively uncertain proposition. It's good basketball if clock management isn't an issue, but when the shot has to go up in a specific and narrow time interval, I think it becomes problematic.

I see your point about time management. I still feel like, though, with 15+ seconds at the start of the play, there's an opportunity for some ball movement. Maybe all you get out of it is a defensive switch, and then you're in the same ISO situation (which allows you to control the clock, as you said).

My guess is that Carlisle just doesn't trust all these new guys enough to not turn the ball over. That's unfortunate, even if he's right.

[grndmstr_c]

My guess is that Carlisle just doesn't trust all these new guys enough to not turn the ball over.

Agreed.

That's unfortunate,

Indeed.

even if he's right.

Which I think he is. At least it's still early enough in the season that there's time for that to change.