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Old 10-17-2011, 05:06 PM   #1
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Default Rangers vs. Cardinals - WORLD SERIES!

Rangers in 7 is my gut feeling, but I want to close this out at home so I am officially going with Rangers in 5. Unlikely, sure, but it sure would be sweet to celebrate with the fans in Arlington and I am going to try like hell to get tickets to that game.

I said it at the beginning of the Rays series and at the beginning of the Tigers series and I say it again now confident that we are that team...

May the best team win.

GO RANGERS!
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Old 10-17-2011, 05:11 PM   #2
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The good news is we don't have Cliff Lee to set the tone in Game One like he did last year.
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Old 10-17-2011, 05:25 PM   #3
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I have tickets to Game 3. So I'm gonna predict Rangers in 3.
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Old 10-17-2011, 08:38 PM   #4
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Threw down a fair amount of cash on the Rangers to win the whole thing before the playoffs started. 15:2 payout. This will be doubly fun.
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Old 10-17-2011, 09:07 PM   #5
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Threw down a fair amount of cash on the Rangers to win the whole thing before the playoffs started. 15:2 payout. This will be doubly fun.
Smart man. Smart, smart man.

I'm going Rangers in five. They can't hold this offense.
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Old 10-17-2011, 09:19 PM   #6
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This is the last run of our tree-fo-fo journey
Rangers in 5 with 2 close wins and 2 routs
CJ breaks out of his funk to shut the cards down in games 1 and 5
Larussa and co. get flustered and start throwing at some of our sluggers - Rangers take the high road and make them pay anyways.

Go Rangers!
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Old 10-17-2011, 10:10 PM   #7
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I'm not as jiggy as I was going into the heat series, but this is way the hell up there. Let's get this beotch.
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Old 10-18-2011, 06:41 AM   #8
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The Rangers are the better team, but this is why you play the games.
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Old 10-18-2011, 08:02 AM   #9
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Bandwagon fan here...Not ever watching many Cards games, how do they stack up against the Rangers? I keep hearing that pitching is roughly the same...Moderate starting pitching and decent bullpen. So this is going to be about who has the best/hottest hitting...Since we don't have homefield advantage, I am a little nervous about losing one hitter in the line-up due to NL rules. Will that haunt the Rangers?
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Old 10-18-2011, 08:11 AM   #10
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Bandwagon fan here...Not ever watching many Cards games, how do they stack up against the Rangers? I keep hearing that pitching is roughly the same...Moderate starting pitching and decent bullpen. So this is going to be about who has the best/hottest hitting...Since we don't have homefield advantage, I am a little nervous about losing one hitter in the line-up due to NL rules. Will that haunt the Rangers?
This hurt the Rangers last year. This year, it's no big deal at all. It just means losing Moreland or Chavez.

This exact situation is one of the reasons why it's so huge that Napoli has proven himself defensively and is not just a DH/1B.
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Old 10-18-2011, 08:14 AM   #11
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Rangers in 6.

The weather will probably be crappy in STL for at least game 1.
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Old 10-18-2011, 09:29 AM   #12
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Bandwagon fan here...Not ever watching many Cards games, how do they stack up against the Rangers? I keep hearing that pitching is roughly the same...Moderate starting pitching and decent bullpen. So this is going to be about who has the best/hottest hitting...[b]Since we don't have homefield advantage[b], I am a little nervous about losing one hitter in the line-up due to NL rules. Will that haunt the Rangers?
Personally, I am not a huge fan of home field advantage in a 2/3/2 format. I hate the idea of splitting the first two and then having to face your opponent with 3 home games where you could potentially be put away without returning home again.

Obviously it worked well for us with Detroit and it worked well for SF last year against us. That said, I would much rather be in Texas' position here. I get all the obvious down-side but I really would rather have the opportunity to put major pressure on my opponent. Key is, you MUST win 1 of the first 2.

I love the idea of HFA and would definitely prefer it if offered in a 2/2/1/1/1 format but there is obviously a great deal of travel with that and I get why it isn't used.

Either way, over a 7 game series, regardless of HFA, the best team should win and the best team in this series is Texas.
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Old 10-18-2011, 09:32 AM   #13
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Rangers in 6.

The weather will probably be crappy in STL for at least game 1.


Ugh...
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Old 10-18-2011, 11:34 AM   #14
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I'm not as jiggy as I was going into the heat series, but this is way the hell up there. Let's get this beotch.
Bingo
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Old 10-19-2011, 05:05 AM   #15
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Personally, I am not a huge fan of home field advantage in a 2/3/2 format. I hate the idea of splitting the first two and then having to face your opponent with 3 home games where you could potentially be put away without returning home again.

Obviously it worked well for us with Detroit and it worked well for SF last year against us. That said, I would much rather be in Texas' position here. I get all the obvious down-side but I really would rather have the opportunity to put major pressure on my opponent. Key is, you MUST win 1 of the first 2.

I love the idea of HFA and would definitely prefer it if offered in a 2/2/1/1/1 format but there is obviously a great deal of travel with that and I get why it isn't used.

Either way, over a 7 game series, regardless of HFA, the best team should win and the best team in this series is Texas.
totally agree on the HFA format.

Another main reason 2-3-2 is important for baseball is the 22111 format would have too many days off. too easy to just throw your best horses out there every game.
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Old 10-19-2011, 03:57 PM   #16
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Personally, I am not a huge fan of home field advantage in a 2/3/2 format. I hate the idea of splitting the first two and then having to face your opponent with 3 home games where you could potentially be put away without returning home again.
I said this exact thing before the Finals. I think the 2-3-2 in many, many instances actually benefits the non-advantage team more than it does the advantage team. Flipping the often pivotal Game 5 is huge.

Along related (but slightly different) lines, Chum did a nice post on the various permutations explaining why 2-3-2 is better than 2-2-1-1-1 for the non-advantage team in the vast majority of scenarios.
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Old 10-19-2011, 04:10 PM   #17
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I said this exact thing before the Finals. I think the 2-3-2 in many, many instances actually benefits the non-advantage team more than it does the advantage team. Flipping the often pivotal Game 5 is huge.

Along related (but slightly different) lines, Chum did a nice post on the various permutations explaining why 2-3-2 is better than 2-2-1-1-1 for the non-advantage team in the vast majority of scenarios.
Didn't see his or your comments, but either way, I am pleased to be in the position we're in. Just have to get game 1 or 2 to go our way (preferably both).

Here's hoping for tonight to be that game! GO RANGERS!!!
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Old 10-19-2011, 04:18 PM   #18
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If you're stuck with only three games at home, you can argue it's more desirable to have the three middle games, but it's still a better overall advantage to have four total games at home.

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Old 10-19-2011, 05:41 PM   #19
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The good news is we don't have Cliff Lee to set the tone in Game One like he did last year.
No, but we have CJ to give up a HR every inning. That's a great tone setter.

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Old 10-19-2011, 06:38 PM   #20
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If you're stuck with only three games at home, you can argue it's more desirable to have the three middle games, but it's still a better overall advantage to have four total games at home.
it's not when the series ends in 5, the series would have to go the full 7 games for the advantage team to even have a true "advantage", in fact after 5 games the other team has the advantage and if the series ends in 6 neither team will have had one.
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Old 10-19-2011, 08:00 PM   #21
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it's not when the series ends in 5, the series would have to go the full 7 games for the advantage team to even have a true "advantage", in fact after 5 games the other team has the advantage and if the series ends in 6 neither team will have had one.
If Game Seven is never played, then its value is zilch. If Game Seven IS played, it has ultimate value.

On the contrary, Game One will never decide a series, but it will always be played and have an impact in the series.

In the end, it all evens out and each game has the same value as any other before the series starts. Therefore, it's more desirable to get four at home than three.

Edit: Another thing I want to add to this point is that you can't look at home field in retrospect. What you said implied that if the Rangers closed out the previous series in five, then Detroit would have had the advantage. But since Detroit forced a Game Six, nobody had a home field edge. Therefore, by winning Game Five, Detroit conceded an advantage to Texas that they would have otherwise kept had they lost. As you can tell, this is nonsense.

It would be more accurate to say that, in the scenario the Rangers closed it out in Game Five, the Rangers held home field advantage throughout the series. Even though those last two home games were never played, the mere threat of two remaining games in Arlington made a full comeback by Detroit seem all the more daunting of a task.

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Old 10-19-2011, 11:18 PM   #22
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If you're stuck with only three games at home, you can argue it's more desirable to have the three middle games, but it's still a better overall advantage to have four total games at home.
Missing the point. If one game is lost while at home in the 2-3-2 format the opportunity is there for you to only play 2 home game. In a 2-2-1-1-1 format, even if you lose 1 at home, you KNOW you will have another opportunity to play at home (barring a 4-game sweep of course).
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Old 10-19-2011, 11:24 PM   #23
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As far as tonight goes, so very much fail on Washington's part... Have to give credit to St. Louis' bullpen for preventing a run, but I sure would like to see what would have happened had Beltre been given a fair AB in the 9th. And man - up 0-2 on the pinch hitter that put St. Louis up 1 - sheesh, gotta get that guy out. Worst case, get the count to 2-2 by throwing a couple of balls hoping he lunges. Don't fire an 0-2 pitch right down the middle of the plate. Some times he is so aggressive he kicks himself in the ass.

So many what ifs - just makes losing a game like this so difficult. Really hope kick ass Colby is the version we get tomorrow. Man, if we go down 0-2, the series isn't over, but man - just better not happen.
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Old 10-19-2011, 11:32 PM   #24
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Missing the point. If one game is lost while at home in the 2-3-2 format the opportunity is there for you to only play 2 home game. In a 2-2-1-1-1 format, even if you lose 1 at home, you KNOW you will have another opportunity to play at home (barring a 4-game sweep of course).
The two scenarios don't split until Game Five. If you're already down 3-1, what difference does it make if your lone road game comes before the other two or not? You have to sweep all three regardless.
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Old 10-19-2011, 11:48 PM   #25
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As far as tonight goes, so very much fail on Washington's part... Have to give credit to St. Louis' bullpen for preventing a run, but I sure would like to see what would have happened had Beltre been given a fair AB in the 9th. And man - up 0-2 on the pinch hitter that put St. Louis up 1 - sheesh, gotta get that guy out. Worst case, get the count to 2-2 by throwing a couple of balls hoping he lunges. Don't fire an 0-2 pitch right down the middle of the plate. Some times he is so aggressive he kicks himself in the ass.

So many what ifs - just makes losing a game like this so difficult. Really hope kick ass Colby is the version we get tomorrow. Man, if we go down 0-2, the series isn't over, but man - just better not happen.
I would have liked to see a slider, but I don't agree that it was right down the middle. It was on the outer half and at the knees. I thought it was a quality pitch, and off the bat I thought that was an out. And with that kind of contact, it's an out most of the time. Just got lucky. Sucks.
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Old 10-19-2011, 11:52 PM   #26
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The two scenarios don't split until Game Five. If you're already down 3-1, what difference does it make if your lone road game comes before the other two or not? You have to sweep all three regardless.
???

You just don't get the importance of getting confidence from a single win and building off of that toward multiple wins. If you somehow think that playing game 5 on the road is somehow equal or better than playing game 5 at home while down 3-1 I just don't have much else to offer to convince you otherwise.

The bottom line is that a team can split on the road in the 2-3-2 format, like hopefully Texas does, and then have an opportunity to win 3 straight at home to never allow the opposing team to see their home field again. In a 2-2-1-1-1 scenario that isn't possible. It is as simple as that.
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Old 10-19-2011, 11:56 PM   #27
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I would have liked to see a slider, but I don't agree that it was right down the middle. It was on the outer half and at the knees. I thought it was a quality pitch, and off the bat I thought that was an out. And with that kind of contact, it's an out most of the time. Just got lucky. Sucks.
Come on... It was a low fastball. It would have been called a strike - borderline, but a strike. You do NOT throw a strike in that situation. Hell, you don't throw a borderlilne strike that might get barely called a ball in that situation. That is my point.

He regularly does it and I would LOVE to see the stat showing how many base hits are allowed up 0-2. Dude would have to lead the league. Not like this is anything new and he avoided damage in the first two rounds, but he just attacks, attacks, attacks. Sometimes it works, other times it doesn't. Must learn how to pitch SMART. He obviously can pitch and can throw and obviously he has great stuff.

That pitch isn't why we lost, but it definitely played its role in preventing us from winning.
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Old 10-20-2011, 12:05 AM   #28
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Just so much blame to go around...

Lack of timely hits with RISP
HORRIBLE management (just HORRIBLE)
Umpire's mistake on Beltre's foul ball
Ogando's pitch
Once again, Wilson...... Ugh. Walks, hit batter, walks, walks, walks
Cruz not diving (though who knows - maybe that was a blessing in disguise)
Did I mention untimely hitting?
Did I mention Warsh?

Wish we could have a mulligan but I just hope we learn from these mistakes and play better baseball tomorrow.
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Old 10-20-2011, 12:17 AM   #29
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Just so much blame to go around...

Lack of timely hits with RISP
HORRIBLE management (just HORRIBLE)
Umpire's mistake on Beltre's foul ball
Ogando's pitch
Once again, Wilson...... Ugh. Walks, hit batter, walks, walks, walks
Cruz not diving (though who knows - maybe that was a blessing in disguise)
Did I mention untimely hitting?
Did I mention Warsh?

Wish we could have a mulligan but I just hope we learn from these mistakes and play better baseball tomorrow.
What are you on to, with the management? The Esteban pinch hit?

I hate to take the loss, but I'm not in tears about it. Hell, 3-2 game...you'd about expect that, out of the championship series, right?
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Old 10-20-2011, 12:33 AM   #30
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Come on... It was a low fastball. It would have been called a strike - borderline, but a strike. You do NOT throw a strike in that situation. Hell, you don't throw a borderlilne strike that might get barely called a ball in that situation. That is my point.

He regularly does it and I would LOVE to see the stat showing how many base hits are allowed up 0-2. Dude would have to lead the league. Not like this is anything new and he avoided damage in the first two rounds, but he just attacks, attacks, attacks. Sometimes it works, other times it doesn't. Must learn how to pitch SMART. He obviously can pitch and can throw and obviously he has great stuff.

That pitch isn't why we lost, but it definitely played its role in preventing us from winning.
That's fair, I was just pointing out that it wasn't exactly a meat ball. Although I don't necessarily agree that you should ALWAYS throw a junk pitch on 0-2. For all we know the scouting report on that particular hitter might show that he expects the junker and is susceptible to the 0-2 strike. Ogando is defintely an aggressive pitcher, but I don't necessarily hate that 0-2 pitch. As I mentioned, it DID induce the kind of contact that is going to result in an out the majority of the time.

Did you have a beef with Washington beyond the German pinch hit (which was weird, for sure)?
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Old 10-20-2011, 12:53 AM   #31
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What are you on to, with the management? The Esteban pinch hit?

I hate to take the loss, but I'm not in tears about it. Hell, 3-2 game...you'd about expect that, out of the championship series, right?
While that most certainly isn't ALL that he did wrong, that was a major, major mistake to put Esteban in instead of Torrealba. He could have even kept Ogando in via the double switch had he wanted to and I doubt he even knew that. Instead he essentially uses who most of us consider his best bullpen arm for a third of an inning and then has to change to Mike HRzalez. Granted he and Feldman held the score at 3, but he still didn't manage his team well at all there.

In addition to that, he calls for a hit and run in the 1st instead of a simple bunt with one of the best bunters in baseball squashing an opportunity to let Josh and Beltre hit with a guy on 2nd. If that run gets knocked in and we jump off to an early lead who knows how the rest of the game goes.

Finally, changing the lineup was, in my opinion, stupid as hell. Anyone that follows this team closely knows that Cruz's spot in the lineup actually does affect him - more than anyone else I have ever come across in baseball. He was motivated and in a groove in the #7 spot and the reason he moves him is the lack of protection from #8? You mean, the same lack of protection we had previously? Hell, Moreland is essentially a pitcher hitting 9th anyway here lately - what the hell is the difference? You don't mess with a good thing and while Cruz definitely should be hitting higher, the motivation from being that low and his hot bat was reason enough not to touch him. Sure, Napoli hit a HR from that same spot and who knows if we even score without that, but from my perspective, I would have never done that.

I'm not in tears about the loss either, but these are the types of games that are still difficult to accept due to knowing that a couple of breaks or better decision making could have easily swung the game in the opposite direction.
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Old 10-20-2011, 12:58 AM   #32
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???

You just don't get the importance of getting confidence from a single win and building off of that toward multiple wins. If you somehow thing that playing game 5 on the road is somehow equal or better than playing game 5 at home while down 3-1 I just don't have much else to offer to convince you otherwise.
I think assuming the games are independent and have no impact on each other is a reasonable null hypothesis (such is the typical stance of null hypotheses). Some people think wins have a positive impact on future games (momentum) and others think they have a negative impact (letdown). Personally, I find that we see too much of both to believe either one is a genuine force.

Even if you disagree, let me expand on this a bit then I'll address the alternative.

If the games are independent, then their order simply does not matter. Consider the case where you're down 3-1 but still have two home games. Either

A) You have Game Five at home. The good news is you have a good chance to win that game and extend the series. The bad news is the best you can do is force another road game.

OR

B) You have Game Five on the road. The bad news is that you're now more likely to lose that game. But the good news is you have a chance to win, with BOTH remaining games at home. In other words, there's a higher risk but also a higher reward if the game is won.

Mathematically, it all evens out. For the sake of example, let's assume your odds of winning a home game are 60% and your odds of winning a road game are 40%. Then your odds of winning Games 5-7 in scenario A are (.6)(.4)(.6) = 14.4%. In scenario B, the odds are (.4)(.6)(.6) = 14.4%.

What you're proposing is a conditional probability model. That is, the games are not independent; rather, past games impact the win probabilities of future ones. Perhaps in scenario A, winning Game Five increases the likelihood of getting that road win in Game Six to 50%, and a win there in turn builds momentum such that your overall win odds are 70%. Then your odds of winning the series become (.6)(.5)(.7) = 21%. Whereas in the other scenario, perhaps only the odds for Game Seven are increased to 70%, in which case your odds of winning are (.4)(.6)(.7) = 16.8%.

There are two issues I have with this model. One is that I find it too complex to justify the decisive conclusion that you draw from it. Sure, maybe (maybe!) in the specific case you have home field yet trail 3-1, you are better off playing Game Five at home. But to truly evaluate the worth of having this game at home overall, you cannot just analyze this scenario. You have to analyze it under all possible scenarios and weight them accordingly. You may be down 3-1, but you may also be up 3-1, and it could also be 2-2. Mathematically, you have to set up a win probability matrix with each scenario weighted properly. Maybe Game Five is good to have at home when down 3-1, but maybe it's not all that likely you trail 3-1 in the first place. And maybe the consequences of the other scenarios outweigh them. Maybe.

Secondly, and more importantly, in order to abandon the null hypothesis, you have to come up with strong observable evidence that the null hypothesis is false. You can't just feel it in your gut that the guys are more confident and roll with it. You can point to the 2008 World Series and say it was all momentum, but then I'll ask you to explain the 2010 NLCS with the same analysis.

The way I see it, treating the games as independent is as reasonable as any other theory, with the side benefit that it is easier to analyze.
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Old 10-20-2011, 01:01 AM   #33
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That's fair, I was just pointing out that it wasn't exactly a meat ball. Although I don't necessarily agree that you should ALWAYS throw a junk pitch on 0-2. For all we know the scouting report on that particular hitter might show that he expects the junker and is susceptible to the 0-2 strike. Ogando is defintely an aggressive pitcher, but I don't necessarily hate that 0-2 pitch. As I mentioned, it DID induce the kind of contact that is going to result in an out the majority of the time.

Did you have a beef with Washington beyond the German pinch hit (which was weird, for sure)?
Obviously there are times to attack there, but even if he is susceptible to the 0-2 strike, given the situation, I still think you try a couple of pitches to get him to swing and miss.

Bottom line, as you said, it was slider time and he throws a fastball strike. Just can't do it. Just can't. Hell, even if you want to throw a strike, make it a borderline slider after 2 straight fastballs to get to the 0-2 count to begin with.

Hell, he could be the best slider hitter in baseball and it would still be better to throw a junk pitch slider to see if he chases vs. throwing a fastball strike that - as was obviously proven possible - can be slapped into right field for the winning run in a World Series game.

Mentioned the other core issues I had with Washington in my last post...
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Old 10-20-2011, 02:06 AM   #34
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I think assuming the games are independent and have no impact on each other is a reasonable null hypothesis (such is the typical stance of null hypotheses). Some people think wins have a positive impact on future games (momentum) and others think they have a negative impact (letdown). Personally, I find that we see too much of both to believe either one is a genuine force.

Even if you disagree, let me expand on this a bit then I'll address the alternative.

If the games are independent, then their order simply does not matter. Consider the case where you're down 3-1 but still have two home games. Either

A) You have Game Five at home. The good news is you have a good chance to win that game and extend the series. The bad news is the best you can do is force another road game.

OR

B) You have Game Five on the road. The bad news is that you're now more likely to lose that game. But the good news is you have a chance to win, with BOTH remaining games at home. In other words, there's a higher risk but also a higher reward if the game is won.

Mathematically, it all evens out. For the sake of example, let's assume your odds of winning a home game are 60% and your odds of winning a road game are 40%. Then your odds of winning Games 5-7 in scenario A are (.6)(.4)(.6) = 14.4%. In scenario B, the odds are (.4)(.6)(.6) = 14.4%.

What you're proposing is a conditional probability model. That is, the games are not independent; rather, past games impact the win probabilities of future ones. Perhaps in scenario A, winning Game Five increases the likelihood of getting that road win in Game Six to 50%, and a win there in turn builds momentum such that your overall win odds are 70%. Then your odds of winning the series become (.6)(.5)(.7) = 21%. Whereas in the other scenario, perhaps only the odds for Game Seven are increased to 70%, in which case your odds of winning are (.4)(.6)(.7) = 16.8%.

There are two issues I have with this model. One is that I find it too complex to justify the decisive conclusion that you draw from it. Sure, maybe (maybe!) in the specific case you have home field yet trail 3-1, you are better off playing Game Five at home. But to truly evaluate the worth of having this game at home overall, you cannot just analyze this scenario. You have to analyze it under all possible scenarios and weight them accordingly. You may be down 3-1, but you may also be up 3-1, and it could also be 2-2. Mathematically, you have to set up a win probability matrix with each scenario weighted properly. Maybe Game Five is good to have at home when down 3-1, but maybe it's not all that likely you trail 3-1 in the first place. And maybe the consequences of the other scenarios outweigh them. Maybe.

Secondly, and more importantly, in order to abandon the null hypothesis, you have to come up with strong observable evidence that the null hypothesis is false. You can't just feel it in your gut that the guys are more confident and roll with it. You can point to the 2008 World Series and say it was all momentum, but then I'll ask you to explain the 2010 NLCS with the same analysis.

The way I see it, treating the games as independent is as reasonable as any other theory, with the side benefit that it is easier to analyze.
That was a very well considered post, and I enjoyed reading it. But I'm afraid you left one thing out. Your null hypothesis has all the games being independent (but allows for a home-field advantage, the way I read it). In fact, that is *exactly* the model that gives the road team the edge in a series that does not go seven games. As in, there are three ways that a series can go something besides seven games:

sweep: two games at each site, net advantage zero
4-1: three games at road site, net advantage to road team
4-2: three games at each site, net advantage zero

Get it?

Now, I actually do believe that the games are not purely independent. But, as you say, this is complex and not at all easy to measure. But, in the case of baseball as opposed to basketball, there are indeed some tangible differences we can identify (outside of the "mojo" kind of things that you, probably rightfully, do not want to include). How you deploy your closer is one thing. That can vary, home or away, in certain game situations. Whether you use potential future starting pitchers, when/if necessary. Point is, the desperate team might have more bullets to fire, if it comes to it.

And of course, if anything that runs counter to the "momentum" theory. But there's probably also something to the idea that a pitcher who takes the mound up 3-1 or up 3-2 has just a little more confidence in his pitches than a guy who is down 1-3 or down 2-3, and that can also be made manifest in the outcome.

I like to leave room for all these variables.
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Old 10-20-2011, 02:21 AM   #35
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While that most certainly isn't ALL that he did wrong, that was a major, major mistake to put Esteban in instead of Torrealba. He could have even kept Ogando in via the double switch had he wanted to and I doubt he even knew that. Instead he essentially uses who most of us consider his best bullpen arm for a third of an inning and then has to change to Mike HRzalez. Granted he and Feldman held the score at 3, but he still didn't manage his team well at all there.

In addition to that, he calls for a hit and run in the 1st instead of a simple bunt with one of the best bunters in baseball squashing an opportunity to let Josh and Beltre hit with a guy on 2nd. If that run gets knocked in and we jump off to an early lead who knows how the rest of the game goes.

Finally, changing the lineup was, in my opinion, stupid as hell. Anyone that follows this team closely knows that Cruz's spot in the lineup actually does affect him - more than anyone else I have ever come across in baseball. He was motivated and in a groove in the #7 spot and the reason he moves him is the lack of protection from #8? You mean, the same lack of protection we had previously? Hell, Moreland is essentially a pitcher hitting 9th anyway here lately - what the hell is the difference? You don't mess with a good thing and while Cruz definitely should be hitting higher, the motivation from being that low and his hot bat was reason enough not to touch him. Sure, Napoli hit a HR from that same spot and who knows if we even score without that, but from my perspective, I would have never done that.

I'm not in tears about the loss either, but these are the types of games that are still difficult to accept due to knowing that a couple of breaks or better decision making could have easily swung the game in the opposite direction.
I guess where I'm coming from is that I'm not going to sit here in my chair and question Ron Washington. The dude has enough currency with me. Did he see something with Esteban? Hell, if he can't hit him there, why is he on the roster? Maybe he was anticipating a long game, like if we had scored in the 9th, and he wanted to keep some powder dry. I don't know.

The bullpen moves worked out okay, as you recognized.

The hit-and-run in the first? Maybe Elvis needs to execute a little better there.

And finally, I'm not going anywhere near touching the psychobabble that says Nellie needed to stay safe in his nest at the seven hole. If we're that fragile, God bless us.
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Old 10-20-2011, 03:20 AM   #36
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I think assuming the games are independent and have no impact on each other is a reasonable null hypothesis (such is the typical stance of null hypotheses). Some people think wins have a positive impact on future games (momentum) and others think they have a negative impact (letdown). Personally, I find that we see too much of both to believe either one is a genuine force.

Even if you disagree, let me expand on this a bit then I'll address the alternative.

If the games are independent, then their order simply does not matter. Consider the case where you're down 3-1 but still have two home games. Either

A) You have Game Five at home. The good news is you have a good chance to win that game and extend the series. The bad news is the best you can do is force another road game.

OR

B) You have Game Five on the road. The bad news is that you're now more likely to lose that game. But the good news is you have a chance to win, with BOTH remaining games at home. In other words, there's a higher risk but also a higher reward if the game is won.

Mathematically, it all evens out. For the sake of example, let's assume your odds of winning a home game are 60% and your odds of winning a road game are 40%. Then your odds of winning Games 5-7 in scenario A are (.6)(.4)(.6) = 14.4%. In scenario B, the odds are (.4)(.6)(.6) = 14.4%.

What you're proposing is a conditional probability model. That is, the games are not independent; rather, past games impact the win probabilities of future ones. Perhaps in scenario A, winning Game Five increases the likelihood of getting that road win in Game Six to 50%, and a win there in turn builds momentum such that your overall win odds are 70%. Then your odds of winning the series become (.6)(.5)(.7) = 21%. Whereas in the other scenario, perhaps only the odds for Game Seven are increased to 70%, in which case your odds of winning are (.4)(.6)(.7) = 16.8%.

There are two issues I have with this model. One is that I find it too complex to justify the decisive conclusion that you draw from it. Sure, maybe (maybe!) in the specific case you have home field yet trail 3-1, you are better off playing Game Five at home. But to truly evaluate the worth of having this game at home overall, you cannot just analyze this scenario. You have to analyze it under all possible scenarios and weight them accordingly. You may be down 3-1, but you may also be up 3-1, and it could also be 2-2. Mathematically, you have to set up a win probability matrix with each scenario weighted properly. Maybe Game Five is good to have at home when down 3-1, but maybe it's not all that likely you trail 3-1 in the first place. And maybe the consequences of the other scenarios outweigh them. Maybe.

Secondly, and more importantly, in order to abandon the null hypothesis, you have to come up with strong observable evidence that the null hypothesis is false. You can't just feel it in your gut that the guys are more confident and roll with it. You can point to the 2008 World Series and say it was all momentum, but then I'll ask you to explain the 2010 NLCS with the same analysis.

The way I see it, treating the games as independent is as reasonable as any other theory, with the side benefit that it is easier to analyze.
Question 87 on your SAT test (humor me):

You are the manager of a baseball franchise starting a World Series matchup on the road. You feel that you have the better team and your regular season record indicates as much. Given matchups and the games being on the road, you anticipate a 1-1 series split after the first two games, though there are no guarantees that this will be the outcome. You want to end the series as quickly as possible due to the obvious fatigue that comes with playing a grinding season and long playoff schedule.

That all being said, you have been offered the opportunity to choose whether or not you want to play the series in a 2-3-2 format or a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Your goal is to pick the option that provides the greatest mathematical odds for a series victory for your organization. You decide to ask your team statistician for assistance with making the decision and you inform him of your anticipation for a 1-1 series split after the first two games. He then informs you that there are two fundamental theories that need to be considered, with varying winning percentages associated with each.

The first theory is that baseball teams that win or lose carry no emotional impact from said victory or defeat, and as a result play no better following a win or no worse following a loss. The second theory is that baseball teams that win or lose do carry emotional impact from said victory or defeat, and as a result the win probability for the following game increases. Please note that both theories have had evidence provided that supports that respective stance and both theories have had evidence provided that nullifies that respective stance. Regardless, support exists in the baseball world for both theories so both should be considered as possible.

The statistician goes on to explain that, with either theory, the home team has a 60% chance to win. This means that with the 3-2 scenario along with the independent game theory, the chances of you winning 3 games in a row to quickly end the series is 21.6% (.6 x .6 x .6). The statistician then informs you that with the non-independent game theory, the winning team adds an additional 10% chance to win each following game. This means that with the 3-2 scenario and this specific theory, the chances of you winning 3 games in a row to quickly end the series increases to 33.6% (.6 x .7 x .8).

The second alternative is the 2-1-1-1 format, and with this scenario along with the independent game theory, the chances of you winning 3 games in a row to quickly end the series is 14.4% (.6 x .6 x .4). With this same format and with the non-independent game theory, the chances of you winning 3 games in a row to quickly end the series is 25.2% (.6 x .7 x .6).

While you prefer to end the series quickly, there is also the potential that you can win the series in 6 or 7 games in the event that you don't manage to win 3 games in a row. There is also the potential that the anticipated start won't take place and in reality the series will shift to your home with you either up 2-0 or down 0-2. This all must be calculated and taken into consideration by you, but you still feel that your anticipated results are most likely and you still prefer to end the series as quickly as possible.

Given the above situation and given the feedback from your statistician, as manager of the team, which option would you choose to provide the best possible edge for your team:

1) 2-3-2 format
2) 2-2-1-1-1 format


_____________________________________


Now, that was rushed and all possibilities were not thought out so forgive any mistakes made. That said, a question like this (which was the setup I was suggesting by indicating the 2-3-2 model was beneficial for us IF we could win one of the first two games) points to the 2-3-2 format as the answer I would provide to that question.
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Old 10-20-2011, 03:30 AM   #37
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That was a very well considered post, and I enjoyed reading it. But I'm afraid you left one thing out. Your null hypothesis has all the games being independent (but allows for a home-field advantage, the way I read it). In fact, that is *exactly* the model that gives the road team the edge in a series that does not go seven games. As in, there are three ways that a series can go something besides seven games:

sweep: two games at each site, net advantage zero
4-1: three games at road site, net advantage to road team
4-2: three games at each site, net advantage zero

Get it?
No, I don't. See my response to xrobx. Consider the Giants in last year's WS. Are you really going to argue that they lost home field advantage simply because they got it done in five games? I would say they had a *strong* grip on home field because they had two home games in their back pocket that they didn't even need.

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Now, I actually do believe that the games are not purely independent. But, as you say, this is complex and not at all easy to measure. But, in the case of baseball as opposed to basketball, there are indeed some tangible differences we can identify (outside of the "mojo" kind of things that you, probably rightfully, do not want to include). How you deploy your closer is one thing. That can vary, home or away, in certain game situations. Whether you use potential future starting pitchers, when/if necessary. Point is, the desperate team might have more bullets to fire, if it comes to it.
Yes. Baseball is unique because pitching matchups are the dominating factor over the course of a series. However, that would lead me to think all the more that the games are largely independent. The win probabilities won't be the same from game to game, but they would be independent nonetheless. For example, the Rangers won't have to worry about Carpenter tomorrow, so their probability of taking that game should be better than the last one (at least I hope!). Their chances would be determined by the matchup in that game, not in the fact they lost the previous one.

(And just because I have to say it... Leyland didn't have many bullets in Game Five.)

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And of course, if anything that runs counter to the "momentum" theory. But there's probably also something to the idea that a pitcher who takes the mound up 3-1 or up 3-2 has just a little more confidence in his pitches than a guy who is down 1-3 or down 2-3, and that can also be made manifest in the outcome.

I like to leave room for all these variables.
Which is another reason why I don't think one can decisively say it's always better to have Game Five at home. Maybe you'd rather have your ace pitch both Games One and Five on the road and let your #2 guy pitch his second game in front of the home crowd.

I will concede that certain events in one game can affect the outlook of another. But these are tangible things like pitcher availability as you said. I was arguing in abstraction that the timing of the third home game does not affect overall win probability due to "momentum".
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Old 10-20-2011, 03:32 AM   #38
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I guess where I'm coming from is that I'm not going to sit here in my chair and question Ron Washington. The dude has enough currency with me. Did he see something with Esteban? Hell, if he can't hit him there, why is he on the roster? Maybe he was anticipating a long game, like if we had scored in the 9th, and he wanted to keep some powder dry. I don't know.

The bullpen moves worked out okay, as you recognized.

The hit-and-run in the first? Maybe Elvis needs to execute a little better there.

And finally, I'm not going anywhere near touching the psychobabble that says Nellie needed to stay safe in his nest at the seven hole. If we're that fragile, God bless us.
Fair enough on giving Ron a pass due to him having enough currency with you. I agree that he has our team in a position to win the biggest prize, but his decision making and game management skills were questioned the entire ride. It isn't like I loved all of his decisions and only now find issue with it. This has been going on and the talent on his roster has overcome a lot of that. Tonight though, not so much.

As far as Esteban, he should be on the roster in case of injury and injury alone regarding swinging a piece of lumber and the only other time he should see game action is in the event that we need to pinch run in a close game. Aside from that, no, there is never a reason he should be in a playoff contest. PERIOD (in my opinion of course).

Regarding Elvis, tough to hit a ball that was very much low and away (basically the pitch I wanted Ogando to throw in that 0-2 count). He tried, and wasn't all that close to it. Bottom line is there is more risk in that situation and more reward, but to start a World Series game I would be very happy with a 1-0 lead to apply some pressure vs. trying to jump out to a 2+ run lead at the risk of walking away empty handed. Sure, the opportunity is there for two ground outs by Hamilton/Beltre, but the odds are much better given Elvis' great bunting ability.

And you have been a fan of this team long enough to know that Nellie responds differently based on where you hit him. Put him in the 4th spot and watch his numbers drag down. He is fragile mentally and that is all there is to it. Wish it wasn't the case, but sadly, it is.

With everything above said and all of my other posts considered, the following rings true...

GO RANGERS, WIN GAME 2 TODAY!!!
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Old 10-20-2011, 04:07 AM   #39
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No, I don't. See my response to xrobx. Consider the Giants in last year's WS. Are you really going to argue that they lost home field advantage simply because they got it done in five games? I would say they had a *strong* grip on home field because they had two home games in their back pocket that they didn't even need.
Your response to xrobx was extraordinarily inane, in exactly the same way as your argument here. You don't lose an advantage by winning games. You gain an advantage by winning games. I should think that would be obvious.

When we talk about "home field advantage" and the like, we generally understand "all else being equal." Do you have a hard time understanding that?



Quote:
Yes. Baseball is unique because pitching matchups are the dominating factor over the course of a series. However, that would lead me to think all the more that the games are largely independent. The win probabilities won't be the same from game to game, but they would be independent nonetheless. For example, the Rangers won't have to worry about Carpenter tomorrow, so their probability of taking that game should be better than the last one (at least I hope!). Their chances would be determined by the matchup in that game, not in the fact they lost the previous one.
Starters, yeah. Bullpen?

Quote:
Which is another reason why I don't think one can decisively say it's always better to have Game Five at home. Maybe you'd rather have your ace pitch both Games One and Five on the road and let your #2 guy pitch his second game in front of the home crowd.

I will concede that certain events in one game can affect the outlook of another. But these are tangible things like pitcher availability as you said. I was arguing in abstraction that the timing of the third home game does not affect overall win probability due to "momentum".
Nobody but you introduced the idea of "momentum" into this discussion.
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Old 10-20-2011, 08:15 AM   #40
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The hit and run in the first was a weird decision, but wanting a sacrifice in the first inning is just as weird, imo. I'm not interested in giving away an out in the first inning.

I'm also fine with moving Nellie in the order, although I'm not a huge fan of Napoli being the one to move down. Now our best hitter over the course of the season is hitting seventh. And hitting seventh cost him an at bat in a one run game. I'm not a fan of that. But moving Nellie, in and of itself, I have no problem with. Without looking at the stats, I'm pretty sure cleanup is the only position in the lineup where Nellie supposedly stops hitting due to the pressure, or whatever.
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