The Obama Boom.

[Mavdog]

way over the top, even for fox news.

I can only imagine what the victims of katrina feel when they read their misery used in this manner.

[dude1394]

You think they feel like palins children?

[Mavdog]

so now you are comparing the plight of those who suffered through hurrican katrina to palin's kids hearing people make jokes about their mom?

or are you comparing the victims of hurricane katrina to palin's kid who had a teenage pregnancy and, because of her poor judgement, had her personal life openly discussed?

either way you're minimizing the horrible experience of the katrina victims, just like fox news is guilty of.

[dude1394]

Just an old meanie.

[Mavdog]

you've got your reason, so what's fox news excuse?

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by dude1394

You think they feel like palins children?

If Palin's children are psychologically scarred--and I would agree with you, if you are making the claim, that they probably are--then who is to blame for that?

The maternal instinct protects the children, yet in this case the mother's ambition hung them out to dry.

If there is dysfunction, it certainly didn't have to be.

[dude1394]

What bullcrap...the mom hung her children out to dry. And the raped lady asked for it too, right. good grief, what in the world did this woman do to liberals, except exist.

[mcsluggo]

cue to violins for the self proclaimed pitbull in lipstick....

another senseless victim in a victimized world. so sad.

[dude1394]

With leaders like this.....

I seriously have my doubts about the Obama Administration’s new plan to deal with the failed liberal stimulus experiment by employing a heavy dose of aloof denial:

President Barack Obama said his $787 billion stimulus bill “has worked as intended” as he pushed back against Republican criticism that his recovery program has failed to rescue the economy.
“It has already extended unemployment insurance and health insurance to those who have lost their jobs in this recession,” Obama, who is traveling today in Ghana, said in his weekly Saturday radio and Web address. “It has delivered $43 billion in tax relief to American working families and business.”

[Mavdog]

yeah, without "leaders like this" those who are unemployed would not have had their benefits extended, would be without health insurance, and there would not have been $43 billion in tax relief sent out to american families and businesses....

so what are you bitching about? do you want unemployment and health insurance benefits stopped and do you not want the tax cuts?

[dude1394]

So that was his 'emergency'? that would have been done anyway and you know it. Unemployment benefits have been extended time after time when a recession hits.

This guys "plan" is a utter and abject failure and now he wants to say it is "working". 787billion for unemployment benefits?

[Mavdog]

the criticism is criticism for criticism's sake.

the benefits would not have been extended unless the support was there to extend them.

all the economic data say there has been stabilization, the downward momentum has stopped. we'll see if upward trends happen. so far there can't be a label of 'failure" placed on the administration's plans/policies.

again, the bitching and moaning is about something that you and every other critic supports.....are you against the extension of benefits and health insurance for unemployed? are you against the tax cuts?

didn't think so...

[92bDad]

What we are against is the failed policies that are causing so many to be unemployed.

Thank you President Obama, you are proving to be as big of a failure as has been predicted...meanwhile, your supporters remain blindly loyal.

[mcsluggo]

Originally Posted by 92bDad

What we are against is the failed policies that are causing so many to be unemployed.

Thank you President Obama, you are proving to be as big of a failure as has been predicted...meanwhile, your supporters remain blindly loyal.

wtf... really?


the policies of the 6 month old administration have led to swathes of unemployment? you really have NO grasp of any of the concepts of economics, do you? You do realize that unemployment is a "lagging indicator" right? and you know what that means, right? and you also know that macroeconomic movements are measured in years and often decades, or at least QUARTERS right?

I am sorry but the two of you harping on the economic performance 6 months into the start of a president whose administration took over in the middle of a trough of the biggest disruption the WORLD has seen in 75 years... just makes you sound like blathering morons.

you can make arguments to criticize these guys about.. there are plenty of policies to choose from... and the evidence of the effects of the policies for this administration will provide fodder for debate for AT LEAST the next decade or so... but really, the lines of argument that you two CHOOSE makes you sound like the little kids that ask "are we there yet?" before the car even leaves the driveway on the trip to disney land.


***Note**** i am sure you have already begun the "blind Obama loyalist defense..." response.... please re-read before you post it. Ok? ------- criticize and debate the policies of the Obama administration .... THAT IS FINE. expecting immediate zigging and zagging of the economy from month to month... THAT is boogar eating idiocy. It is possible that the Paulson/Geithner/Benanke/Bush/Obama stimulus and liquidity injections prevented an absolute cratering of the economy... THAT would have been abrubt macroeconomic movement (but you can't measure counterfactuals, nor the LACK of an abrupt crash)... but other than a CRASH, economic movements have a lot of inertia, and are slow to shift direction and move. Pretend like you understand this fact.

[mcsluggo]

...............

[DirkFTW]

[dude1394]

One back at ya.

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/20...y-changey.html

[Mavdog]

good news on the economic front...apparently the policies of the current administration are making headway in turning around the recession.
----------------------------------------------
JULY 21, 2009 Leading Indicators Signal Recovery Likely in 2nd Half
By GREG ROBB | MarketWatch
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7% in June, the third straight monthly gain, the Conference Board said Monday, signaling that a recovery is likely in the second half of the year.

Over the past six months, the index has improved at a 4.1% annual rate, up sharply from a negative 6.2% rate in the prior six months. This is the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2006.

The trend is consistent with a slow recovery this autumn, according to Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board.

"The unqualified jump in the index holds out hope that the upturn is not far away," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.

The gain in the index was in line with estimates of Wall Street economists, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

Seven of the 10 indicators increased in June. The positive contributors -- beginning with the largest positive contributor -- were interest-rate spread, building permits, stock prices, weekly initial claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.

The negative contributors were real money supply, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and index of consumer expectations.

The coincident index fell 0.2% in June on continued weakness in employment and production. That suggests second-quarter economic activity is likely to be negative. The lagging index fell 0.7% in the month.

"All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the recession will continue to ease and that the economy may begin to recover in the near term," the Conference Board said.

"The critical question is what is next," said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. "Our feeling is that the data will start to flatten out, indicating an elongated trough for the economy. We'll know in the next several months whether this is an accurate assessment of the situation."

The severe U.S. recession is slowly abating, but most companies are still cutting costs, and few have immediate plans to hire more workers or increase their capital spending, according to a quarterly survey released Monday in Washington by the National Association for Business Economics.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fed's Lending Ebbs as Crisis Subsides

By SUDEEP REDDY and ANUSHA SHRIVASTAVA
Demand for the Federal Reserve's emergency short-term lending programs is abating, the latest sign that credit markets are healing.

Borrowing through a program the Fed launched to support the market for commercial paper, short-term corporate IOUs, is at less than one-third its peak level. Securities dealers and investment banks haven't used a Fed borrowing program, launched amid Bear Stearns woes in March 2008, for 10 weeks. Overseas central banks borrowing of dollars from the Fed is running less than a fifth of its $583 billion peak.

Meanwhile, a Fed facility that allows securities firms to trade hard-to-sell collateral for Treasury debt showed just $4 billion in volume recently, down from more than $235 billion in October. And the program through which the Fed auctions to banks is down almost 45% from March.

"The Fed has been able to shift the dominoes in the other direction by very aggressive liquidity policies," said Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners, a trading and research firm. "Now you have these emergency liquidity programs rolling off as these markets improve."

The Fed's overall balance sheet -- the total of all its loans and securities holdings -- stood at $2.06 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, below the $2.3 trillion peak reached last fall, though it grew from $1.98 trillion a week earlier. When Fed officials met in late June, Fed staff said the size of the balance sheet "might peak late this year and decline gradually thereafter," according to minutes released recently.

The Fed has purchased only about half the up to $1.75 trillion in Treasury long-term debt, mortgage-backed securities and debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that it said it may buy. It also is expected to lend more through a joint initiative with the Treasury Department to revive the market in which consumer and business loans are turned into securities, an effort to make credit more widely available.

Since the credit crisis began almost two years ago, the Fed has gone well beyond its traditional lending to commercial banks and launched a dizzying set of programs, each with its own acronym, that has it lending to such big financial firms as American International Group Inc. and even, indirectly, to industrial companies through the commercial-paper market. At its peak, the Fed was one of the biggest holders of commercial paper -- $350 billion, or 20% of the market. Commercial-paper holdings in that program are down to $111 billion and fell by $1.84 billion in the week ended Wednesday.

The program gave investors comfort, when liquidity was strained last fall, that issuers could access the Fed facility as a backstop, said Chris Conetta, head of U.S. commercial-paper trading at Barclays Capital. "It allowed cooler heads to prevail and gave time for other programs to develop … where companies could get longer-term debt."

The vast majority of commercial paper being purchased was issued by non-U.S. banks, and many of those issuers ultimately received guarantees from their governments, Mr. Conetta said. Now he expects the program to end in February unless the market changes substantially.

Although credit-market conditions are improving, they aren't -- and may not for a long time -- returning to precrisis levels. Borrowing is expected to remain restrained in the coming years as households reduce debt and lenders display more caution in their standards, said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. "Greater discretion of who they lend to is a healthy sign," he said. "Indiscriminate borrowing and lending is what got us into this mess."

The Fed is still ramping up its initiative to revive securitization of consumer and business loans, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. Loans in this program expanded to $30.1 billion in the week ended Wednesday from $24.9 billion a week earlier. At the height of the credit crisis, no one wanted to buy bonds backed by auto, student and credit-card loans as investors feared these bonds would perform as poorly as their cousins in the home-loan sector.

Now that it is apparent these securities aren't in danger of wholesale ratings downgrades, long-term investors such as insurance companies and pension funds are returning. But the consumer-loan market isn't as healthy as it once was: Issuance is at half the level it was at this time last year. While the auto and credit-card sectors are seeing a rebound, there hasn't been a similar surge in other areas like equipment-backed deals.

That means the securitization market, while on the mend, still needs Fed crutches -- and may need them well past the program's scheduled expiration at the end of this year.

[dude1394]

Heh...

We're in the toughest, most competitive market for jobs in the last 20 years. So if you're looking for a job and feeling mobile, where should you head? Sunny, humid, socialist Washington, D.C., of course!
A graph that Matthew Yglesias passes along from Ryan Avent tells the story.

[DirkFTW]

It's gonna be the world's first job-loss economic recovery.

They got one thing right: like every new advance in modern civilization, sell the idea to the porn crowd for success. Ie, $700 million for horse condoms. That's gonna require a LOT of film, gentlemen.

[DirkFTW]

Things that make you go Hmmmm....

Link

Wall Street Analysts Keep Telling Big Earnings Lie: David Pauly

Commentary by David Pauly

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- At a time when the financial industry’s credibility is at an all-time low, you would think Wall Street’s finest would break their necks providing transparency.

Not so. Stock analysts continue to promote corporate earnings lies, insisting that net income isn’t really what investors need to know.

Instead, their earnings estimates ignore often huge expenditures that can’t help but affect a company’s health.

In analystspeak, Intel Corp. wasn’t hit with a $1.45 billion fine from the European Union in the second quarter for anticompetitive practices.

After setting aside funds to cover the fine, which Intel is appealing, the semiconductor-maker had a quarterly loss of $398 million, or 7 cents a share. Disregarding the fine altogether, analysts maintain the company earned 18 cents a share, beating their average estimate of 8 cents.

As Wall Street tells it, the employee stock options Google Inc. granted in the second quarter didn’t cost its shareholders $293 million.

Google, according to generally accepted accounting principles, earned $1.48 billion, or $4.66 a share, in the period. Not enough for Wall Street, which prefers to say the company earned $5.36 a share, leaving out the cost of stock options.

Tangled Numbers

Business journalists know what’s going on and in their stories emphasize net income -- which accounting authorities say is where the focus should be. Still, if reporters want to show how the latest report compares with earnings estimates, they are stuck using analysts’ predictions.

Viacom Inc., an entertainment company, this week reported second-quarter net income of $277 million, or 46 cents a share. Analysts had estimated profit as if money Viacom paid out in severance in the period wasn’t the real thing. On that basis, Viacom earned 49 cents a share, beating the average estimate by 1 cent.

Time Warner Inc., a rival of Viacom for entertainment dollars, said it earned $519 million, or 43 cents a share, in the quarter. Analysts insist Time Warner earned 45 cents, excluding, according to Bloomberg data, costs related to litigation and asset sales. Lawyers must work for nothing.

By similar Wall Street reckoning, the expense of cutting jobs and selling an asset that reduced McGraw-Hill Cos. second quarter earnings per share by 10 percent was immaterial.

Phantom Plane

Analysts also say investors should ignore $129 million that Textron Inc., maker of small airplanes, helicopters and golf carts, charged against net income in the latest quarter. Included was the cost of shutting a plant for an eight-seat jet Textron decided not to build.

General Electric Co., which makes jet engines and electric power equipment and has a financial services arm, had a second- quarter profit of 24 cents a share. GE and the analysts emphasized earnings from continuing operations, which at 26 cents a share, exceeded their estimate by 2 cents. A $194 million loss from discarded businesses was discarded.

I vaguely recall a discussion in this forum regarding GAAP, but I'm too lazy to find it.

[alexamenos]

there's generally a good reason to make a distinction between GAAP earnings and earnings from continuing operations (however you'd like to phrase it). GAAP earnings often include one-time extraordinary charges that aren't indicative of what a company can earn on a continuing basis.

....like the Textron thing....yeah, I can understand on one hand how Textron spent a lot of money to shut down a plant while also understanding on how they did pretty well on the stuff that they didn't shut down, so both pieces of information are relevant and plausibly realistic (plus, Textron is a war-profiteer that rakes in billions from the gubmint every year, I suspect they'll do fine for a few years to come).

...so....most of these distinctions above are analysts making adjustments for non-recurring events. The thing about non-recurring events though is they tend to happen most every year.

[dude1394]

You go Barry...He is definitely making some history, problem is the records he is shattering are all in the wrong direction.

:

And their delayed ’stimulus’ spending - which won’t show up until late this year, early next - means we will see historically low tax receipts for some time to come as well:

[DirkFTW]

After the collapse of 2008-2009, it's really hard for me to ignore Peter Schiff. And he still paints an ugly picture.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by DirkFTW

After the collapse of 2008-2009, it's really hard for me to ignore Peter Schiff. And he still paints an ugly picture.

Yea it really makes me queasy about putting my money back in the market..but you sort of feel like an idiot if you aren't riding the current rise, you feel like you are missing out.

[alexamenos]

Even a dead count will bounce if you drop it from a sufficient height.

I think we're basically seeing the benefit of the bernanke put option on the market. Sooner or later something is going to give...either bernanke is going to print us into oblivion (less likely, imo) or he's going to throw on the breaks (more likely, imo) and interest rates will go through the roof. If the former, it doesn't really matter what you do. If the latter, stocks are the last place you'll want to be. That said, bigger fool waves can last a long time. Timely and wrong is way better than untimely and right.

[alexamenos]

peter schiff's advice to dear leaders:

As congress and the president consider the best policies to right our economic ship, it is my hope that they will pursue a strategy first developed by Seinfeld character George Costanza. After wisely recognizing that every instinct he had up unto that point had ended in failure, George decided that to be successful, he had to do the exact opposite of whatever his instincts told him. I suggest our policymakers give this approach a try.

[dude1394]

Must be good news. Since so little of the "stimulus" has been spent and the economy seems to be recovering, barry will be able to say that his "policy" improved the economy AND bought votes at the same time. It's a win-win!!

SO IS THIS BAD NEWS, OR GOOD NEWS? Pace Of Stimulus Spending Plummets:

Stimulus bill spending has slowed to a trickle, despite President Obama’s June order to his Cabinet to speed it up.
The average stimulus spending per week has dropped severely, to just $4.2 billion over the past month from $9.7 billion during the prior four months. The government spent $2.9 billion in the week ending Aug. 7.
Taxpayer groups say the numbers show spending decisions are random and prove that the $787 billion stimulus program has had no effect on the economy.
“This is a typical bureaucracy. They don’t operate in an efficient way. They can’t operate in an efficient way and make an impact,” said Leslie Paige, media director for Citizens Against Government Waste.
The spending has slowed despite Mr. Obama’s declaration in June that he was “not satisfied” with its pace, and his demand that his Cabinet secretaries accelerate the distribution of stimulus funds.

Tentatively, I’m going with “good news.” It certainly undercuts calls for a second stimulus package, when they can’t even manage to spend the first one properly.

[Mavdog]

it's fascinating really to see how the critics of the current administration are reacting to the apparent success of the obama team's handling of the recession.

when the recession was threatening to turn into a real depression, the administration reacted with speed to address what they saw as the issues: lack of liquidity in the financial markets and a lack of faith by the public that there was a sense of what to do about the problems.

so here we are 9 mos later...the markets seem to be relatively stable, the public isn't freaking out, there is a general sense that we have indeed avoiding a meltdown, and the critics still do not want to give any credit to what the obama team has accomplished, but rather bitch and moan.

while they scream about the too high federal deficit, they also scream about not spending more of the stimulus funds. the obvious contradiction isn't seen by them, which in itself would be darn funny if it wasn't so irritating.

give credit where credit is due, and the obama team has done well so far in handling the situation. that doesn't mean they get a pass for the future, let's see how they maneuver around the need for reduction in the amount of money floating in the economy, the ridiculous deficit, and the clear fact that interest rates will not stay and so low a level forever.

a good job so far, plain and simple.

[aquaadverse]

If you consider a bill that has more money slated to go into the economy years down the road stimulus, maybe. That is also ignoring TARP, which team Obama voted present on, as far as opinion.

I was against TARP, at least as it was structured. I don't think people are regarding the stimulus plan in the way you think.

It's perfectly logical to question the wisdom of it in the first place, then also point at the execution, or lack their of, as another item and be consistent. It's like not liking the color of house and then pointing out the paint is flaking and blistering because the people doing the job neglected to use a primer.

We are currently monetizing debt.

http://economistsview.typepad.com/ec...s_debt_mo.html

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/f...-auction/23880

If team Obama had cap and trade and the health care reform pushed through, it would be even worse. This is a long way from over, the real impact will be measured in years.

Being in a situation where it is an advantage to the Fed to have high inflation, is neither pure or simple. The other shoe is at 20,000 feet and dropping.

[mcsluggo]

i personally find the juxtaposition of this thread, with the "Kabooom" thread hilarious.

http://www.dallas-mavs.com/vb/showth...t=19848&page=7

after many years of trying to define new ways to measure economic success in order to bold state the vigor of the Bush economy, Dude has, without losing a beat, changed the cadence to define spectacular failure in the current context.

Its kinda cute, actually.

[dude1394]

It figures. So we now know that at least Barry's stimulus has created 110,000 jobs. Pretty good eh?

While the private sector has shed 6.9 million jobs since the beginning of the recession, state and local governments have expanded their payrolls and added 110,000 jobs, according to a report to be issued Thursday by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government.
Skip to next paragraph Multimedia

Graphic Public Versus Private in Hard Economic Times





The report, based on an analysis of federal jobs data, found that state and local governments steadily added jobs for eight months after the recession began in December 2007, with their employment peaking last August. State and local governments have since lost 55,000 jobs, but from the beginning of the recession through last month they gained a net of 110,000 jobs, the report found, in part because of the federal stimulus program.
Government jobs are always more stable than private sector jobs during downturns, but their ability to weather the current deep recession startled Donald J. Boyd, the senior fellow at the institute who wrote the report.
“I am a little surprised at the fact that state and local government has remained as stable as it has in the nation as a whole, given the depth of the current recession,” Mr. Boyd said in an interview.

[Mavdog]

Originally Posted by dude1394

It figures. So we now know that at least Barry's stimulus has created 110,000 jobs. Pretty good eh?

an amazing feat by god! even tho obama is president, and directs the executive branch of the federal government, apparently he has the capacity (and according to some folks ^, the responsibility....) of having state and local governments adding employees!

wow

[alexamenos]

Helicopter Ben's big accomplishment:

....Amid the chaos, Fed and Treasury officials made numerous mistakes. Their original idea for the $700 billion to buy up bad mortgage assets held by banks has yet to get off the ground. But economists say Mr. Bernanke’s most important accomplishment was to create staggering amounts of money out of thin air.

That's an amazing accomplishment....I mean, Ben Bernanke is a big believer in creating staggering amounts of money out of thin air and he just happens to be atop of the institution responsible for creating staggering amounts of money out of thin air. I wonder how he managed this horribly challenging task of creating staggering amounts of money from thin air....did he hit the 'on' button on the printing press? Did he pour green die into the press? Did he add a few zeros in an account somewhere?

way to go Ben.....

[dude1394]

[aquaadverse]

[dude1394]

You go girl..This will help I'm sure....

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/b...lose-them.aspx

OTTAWA -- To lift a quip from Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Arctic sovereignty policy and apply it to the American view of Alberta’s oil sands: use it or lose it.

The Chinese government pushed its shovel deep into Canada’s energy motherlode on Monday when it announced a $2-billion stake in a five-billion-barrel reserve of “dirty oil” that Americans increasingly find unworthy of fuelling their vehicles.


The 60% claim by PetroChina in two projects owned by Athabasca Oil Sands Corp., while small compared to the great gobs of capital pouring into oil sands expansion and extraction, are the global giant’s largest investment in Canadian energy yet.


And China usually buys into product it aims to consume.



Sources in Washington predict politicians there will not be pleased at having a massive supply of secure energy on their northern doorstep slipping under Chinese ownership.


Well, too bad.


Under the greenish Obama administration, “oil sands” is becoming a dirty word as Americans take on the delusional swagger that they can be picky about which oil is good enough to buy in a recession when supply is temporarily ahead of demand.


Canadian oil sands exports are increasingly encountering U.S. political resistance at federal, state and municipal levels as low-carbon fuel standards move through the legislative process to erect barricades against an energy with an extraction problem.

[dude1394]

The barry hits just keep on keeping on. At this rate will he lose more jobs than any president in history? I seem to recall that little factoid being tossed around about dubya.

U.S. Aug. ADP employment down 298,000

[Mavdog]

Originally Posted by dude1394

The barry hits just keep on keeping on. At this rate will he lose more jobs than any president in history? I seem to recall that little factoid being tossed around about dubya.

are you tabulating based on the first nine months of a four year term? that is an odd way to look at presidential stats...

here is an article that speaks positive about the economic trend. hopefully the predictions are right and employment will follow.

Global Economy Gains Steam

By JUSTIN LAHART, ANDREW BATSON and MARCUS WALKER

Manufacturing gains in the U.S., Europe and Asia added to evidence the global economy is improving at a faster pace than was widely anticipated a few months ago.

For the first time since January 2008, an index based on a survey of U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers crossed a threshold indicating factory output grew. Manufacturing activity in China, France and Australia, among other countries, also expanded in August, separate surveys showed. The pace of contraction in Germany and some other nations slowed markedly.

U.S. auto sales were the best in over a year, and the National Association of Realtors index of pending home sales hit its highest level in over two years.

"We had been looking for improvement, but the speed at which it's come and the magnitude with which it has come is surprising," said J.P. Morgan economist Bruce Kasman. "We all went down hard and we're all going up pretty well."

President Barack Obama called the manufacturing data proof "the steps we've taken to bring our economy back from the brink are working."

The global economy remains far from healthy, and not all signs are positive. New figures Tuesday showed the U.K.'s manufacturing sector contracted in August. Banking sectors in several nations continue to struggle with bad loans, the latest worries being commercial real estate loans made by U.S. banks. Financial stocks led a broad selloff Tuesday that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 185.68 points, or nearly 2%, to 9310.60. Wednesday in Tokyo, the Nikkei was down was down 2.7% early.

The positive mood about the economy could dissipate with some disappointing data. Economists estimate a report on the U.S. labor market Friday will show a rise in the unemployment rate to 9.5% in August from July's 9.4%. Continued shedding of jobs acts as a drag on consumer spending, the largest factor in the U.S. economy and a major driver of global demand. Acknowledging the continuing high U.S. unemployment, President Obama promised not to "let up until those Americans who are looking for jobs can find them."

One of the largest unknowns is how well the world economy can fare when the huge fiscal and monetary stimulus supplied by many governments, from the U.S. to China, wears off.

Yet conditions are better than many had anticipated. At the end of July, forecasters polled by research firm Macroeconomic Advisers estimated that the value of goods and services produced by the U.S. economy would grow at a 1.6% annual rate in the current quarter, ending Sept. 30. By last week, that GDP estimate had nearly doubled to 2.9%.

A senior International Monetary Fund economist, Jörg Decressin, said Tuesday that the agency is revising its global growth forecast to just under 3% in 2010, higher than the IMF's July estimate of 2.5%. The new forecast will be released Oct. 1. J.P. Morgan economists expect the 16 nations that share the euro will grow at nearly a 3% annual rate in the second half of this year. In June, they were predicting just 0.5% growth.

In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management's index of purchasing-manager sentiment rose to 52.9 in August from 48.9 in July, crossing the 50 mark that indicates the sector is expanding. A measure tracking new orders rose sharply, with textile mills, paper products, printing-related products and apparel showing particular strength.

Although the recently ended U.S. "cash for clunkers" program boosted auto sales, that wasn't the whole story. "There's obviously some impact from changes in the automotive industry," said Nobert Ore, who oversees the manufacturing survey. "I think probably the business cycle had as much to do with it."

International Rectifier Corp., which makes semiconductors, has seen improved demand across the industries that use its product, including computers, aviation and autos. Last week, the company reported that it turned a profit in the quarter ended June 28 after five quarterly losses. The company has noted "encouraging signs of stabilization" in North America and particularly strong demand in China and Taiwan.

At Ace Clearwater Enterprises, a Torrance, Calif., company that makes parts for the aerospace industry, orders are up 26% from the last year. The company employs about 245, almost 100 more than a year ago, and is still hiring. "We've been really fortunate," said Gary Johnson, the company's vice president. "And a lot of companies have gone out of business, frankly, that are our size."

China has been pulling out of the global slump more decisively than any other major economy, thanks to an enormous stimulus program. A survey of purchasing managers at Chinese companies, which signaled expansion beginning in March, moved up to 54 in August from 53.3 in July.

Chinese policy makers now face the challenge of sustaining an expansion after withdrawing government support. There are some signs Chinese corporate investment is picking up. BOE Technology Group Co. and a consortium of other Chinese state-owned enterprises said last week they will spend $4.1 billion to build a new liquid-crystal-display factory in Beijing.

Yet investments from nonstate companies have lagged in China, confidence remains fragile, and the initial euphoria over the stimulus has evaporated. The Shanghai stock market fell 23% in August as investors fretted over a slowdown in the pace of bank lending.

Although China's stimulus now seems to be more than strong enough to meet the official target of an 8% expansion for 2009, officials remain publicly cautious about the world economy, with China's exports still down 22% from last year.

Japan reported an upturn in industrial production earlier this week. It said industrial production in July rose 2.2% from June, the best monthly gain since the global recession hit.

The euro zone's purchasing managers' index rose to 14-month high of 48.2 in August, up from 46.3 in July, closing in on the 50 level that would indicate activity has stopped falling. The surveys showed manufacturing in France is growing again, and has nearly steadied in Germany. But in some countries, such as Italy, Spain and Ireland, manufacturing declines continued.

As in the U.S., European businesses have cut inventories so sharply that even a modest revival of demand is likely to lead to increases in production.

Skeptics point to three weakness in Europe's German-led recovery. Cash-for-clunkers schemes that have propped the auto sector are due to run out in Germany and elsewhere next year. Banks in the euro zone have done less than in the U.S. to write down their losses in the credit crisis, and are cutting back their lending to businesses to repair their capital ratios.

And third, unemployment in Germany, Italy and some other countries is expected to rise further this year and next. Government measures such as short-shift subsidies have delayed layoffs, but many companies are thought likely to cut jobs over the coming year. That in turn could dent consumer confidence and household spending.

In one respect, Europe is less at risk of a double dip than the U.S., say analysts. It has done less to stimulate growth through fiscal and monetary policy than the U.S., so that the withdrawal of stimulus measures will be a less-significant negative.

Britain could lag behind other regions in pulling out of the global recession, given the U.K.'s heavy debts and reliance on the financial-services industry. British consumers are among the most heavily indebted in the developed world, and their downsizing efforts may put a lid on consumer spending.

That has some U.K.-based companies concerned. Last month, drinks maker Diageo PLC, the maker of Johnnie Walker scotch and Guinness stout, said it doesn't expect a recovery in the alcoholic-beverages industry anytime soon. It issued a lackluster forecast for fiscal year 2010.

[dude1394]

Tell it to the 240K who lost their job last month.