Predict Kidd's stats for 08/09!

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

Doesn't really matter if he's better than Harris. He's not better than Harris, Artest, and the player we could have added with our MLE had we not given up Diop's Bird rights.

Glad to be back, dirno

Just to play a bit of devil's advocate, there's at least two assumptions here that I think are debatable:

1) That the Mavs would have used the MLE (or at least a significant enough portion of it to land a player of consequence) after spending the money it cost to sign Diop. Time may tell the tale on this one. If they make a trade that entails significant LT costs in the short term, I'd take that as a strong indication that your assumption is correct and they probably would have gone hard after Posey with their MLE. Of course, it they do make such a trade, hopefully it'll bring a considerable talent upgrade that'll compensate for whatever the lack of spending flexibility over the summer might have cost them.

2) That the extra trade chips Dallas would have had available had they not made the Kidd trade would have been sufficient to beat the Rockets' best offer for Artest (which I'm assuming they didn't have to make in order to acquire him). Of course, even if those pieces hadn't been enough, it still would have been nice to have more to offer even if the net result was simply to drive up the price that the Rockets had to pay, not to mention to have a couple extra assets available to help in some other bidding war.

Also, since I'm not on record on the Kidd trade yet, I'll just throw out there that while I didn't really ever buy the "had to do it" line and was very sorry to lose Harris, a player I loved rooting for, reacquiring Kidd still got me pretty excited. I first started following the Mavs in his rookie year, and I've held his basketball talents in extremely high regard ever since. I thought (with perhaps a smidge of sentimental bias) that he deserved an MVP back when NJ was going to the finals, and I've long felt that he'd be an outstanding choice to play alongside Dirk. As for right now, I think the jury's still very much out on the trade. The team was in total disarray at the end of last season, and while I recognize that their post-season performance constitutes a strong argument for doubting their prospects this year, I really do think the break-down between Avery and the players was a huge reason for what I'd characterize as a rather dramatic underachievement. For that reason, I suspect I'm more optimistic than most about the impact Carlisle will have, and consequently I remain hopeful - pending a few questions about the supporting cast - that we'll at the very least get to see the Dirk and Kidd led Mavs put up the kind of fight next year that makes being a fan worthwhile.

[alby]

If we are in an arms race, thank goodness Kidd is the PG of the Mavericks and not Harris.

[MavsX]

Originally Posted by craggmac

I predict that he will be better than last year.

your sig looks just like my dirkinator sig

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Glad to be back, dirno

Just to play a bit of devil's advocate, there's at least two assumptions here that I think are debatable:

1) That the Mavs would have used the MLE (or at least a significant enough portion of it to land a player of consequence) after spending the money it cost to sign Diop. Time may tell the tale on this one. If they make a trade that entails significant LT costs in the short term, I'd take that as a strong indication that your assumption is correct and they probably would have gone hard after Posey with their MLE. Of course, it they do make such a trade, hopefully it'll bring a considerable talent upgrade that'll compensate for whatever the lack of spending flexibility over the summer might have cost them.

2) That the extra trade chips Dallas would have had available had they not made the Kidd trade would have been sufficient to beat the Rockets' best offer for Artest (which I'm assuming they didn't have to make in order to acquire him). Of course, even if those pieces hadn't been enough, it still would have been nice to have more to offer even if the net result was simply to drive up the price that the Rockets had to pay, not to mention to have a couple extra assets available to help in some other bidding war.

Also, since I'm not on record on the Kidd trade yet, I'll just throw out there that while I didn't really ever buy the "had to do it" line and was very sorry to lose Harris, a player I loved rooting for, reacquiring Kidd still got me pretty excited. I first started following the Mavs in his rookie year, and I've held his basketball talents in extremely high regard ever since. I thought (with perhaps a smidge of sentimental bias) that he deserved an MVP back when NJ was going to the finals, and I've long felt that he'd be an outstanding choice to play alongside Dirk. As for right now, I think the jury's still very much out on the trade. The team was in total disarray at the end of last season, and while I recognize that their post-season performance constitutes a strong argument for doubting their prospects this year, I really do think the break-down between Avery and the players was a huge reason for what I'd characterize as a rather dramatic underachievement. For that reason, I suspect I'm more optimistic than most about the impact Carlisle will have, and consequently I remain hopeful - pending a few questions about the supporting cast - that we'll at the very least get to see the Dirk and Kidd led Mavs put up the kind of fight next year that makes being a fan worthwhile.

Look at that. Second post back and he's already in the swing of things.

Great post C. I've been pretty down about this offseason because I expected more of a shakeup, but I do share your belief that Carlisle alone is going to make a huge difference for this team.

I just wish they'd made a significant change to go along with Carlisle.

[jthig32]

Kidd during a press conference for USA basketball after the win:

"Now I'll become selfish and shoot all of those shots that I didn't shoot here," he said. "Carlisle and I talked about it before I left. I've been working on shooting a lot of shots. We'll see what happens."

I'm still bummed about the offseason, but I find myself getting more excited to see the changes in the Mavs strategy next season, and that starts with Kidd and how he is used and performs.

[sike]

I agree with all that Carlisle will be some kind of improvement...even IF (which I doubt) its just a "breath of fresh air" improvement. But I agree with thiggy when he admits that he believes this team needed/needs some on court adjustments as well as the significant sideline adjustment they received.

Then again, it would have been nice seeing Damp play more than 24 min per last season as the only legit center on the team and it will be nice to see what Diop brings playing along side Kidd. Those will be some actual on the court "talent" upgrades I expect to see from last year's team.

*I take partial credit for C coming back...I told him I was a mod now and if he didn't bring that basketball mind back home more often...I would ban him for several lifetimes.*

[Eman]

8 ppg
12 assists per game
6 rebounds

Kidd will have more assists, because we have good shooters, and he will not shoot as much as he did in NJ.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Eman

8 ppg
12 assists per game
6 rebounds

Kidd will have more assists, because we have good shooters, and he will not shoot as much as he did in NJ.

Read the quote two posts up from yours...

[kappasigma]

2 PPG, 5 REBOUNDS, 5 ASSISTS

[Purple&Gold]

Kidd will shoot a lot more then he has the last few years. this is his only chance to do something in his career.. I'm sure he really wants to get back to the Big stage.

[DubOverdose]

7 points
4.5 rebounds
6.8 assists

...and yes, I'm serious

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by jthig32

Kidd during a press conference for USA basketball after the win:



I'm still bummed about the offseason, but I find myself getting more excited to see the changes in the Mavs strategy next season, and that starts with Kidd and how he is used and performs.

Do we really want Kidd taking a bunch of jump shots?

[AxdemxO]

Originally Posted by DubOverdose

7 points
4.5 rebounds
6.8 assists

...and yes, I'm serious

Well since you answered the question before it was asked, it kind suggests tht you shouldnt be serious. I say your 3 points under, 3 assists under, and a rebound or 2 under

[AxdemxO]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Do we really want Kidd taking a bunch of jump shots?

The guy missed one basket through the whole Olympiks..comee on are you serious...lol..jk

But seriously thou Kidd shot very good in those games that he was with us and especially from 3s

[erdubya]

9.4ppg
9.8apg
5.8rpg
1.3spg
45.3 fg%
78.7 ft%
2.4 Alley-Oop assists per game
3rd in NBA APG

3.24 A/TO ratio
Western Conference Player of the week (3rd week in January)
Founder of dadswithbigheadkidswithlittlenecks.com
1 NBA Title

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by AxdemxO

The guy missed one basket through the whole Olympiks..comee on are you serious...lol..jk

But seriously thou Kidd shot very good in those games that he was with us and especially from 3s

I guess I'm a little skeptical since he has never had a consistent jump shot.

But hey, if Carlisle gets a one out of him....gold.

[LSMF]

Lately I've just been wondering what our team would have been like if we just had traded Josh Howard for Kidd instead. I think that would have been a solid team, Kidd could play the 1 and Devin could play tat he 2 spot. And Devin could just play at the 1 when Kidd was resting. Then by the time Kidd retired Devin would have learned so much from Kidd that he would have been a hell of a player. Darn...

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Do we really want Kidd taking a bunch of jump shots?

I'm trying to figure out where you found the word "jump" in that quote.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

Doesn't really matter if he's better than Harris. He's not better than Harris, Artest, and the player we could have added with our MLE had we not given up Diop's Bird rights.

I understand thinking it had to be done last year. After being dead set against it I bought in to that line of thinking myself. But with the benefit of hindsight, it's hard to argue that the trade didn't significantly cripple us going forward.

Kidd needs to put up better numbers than you're predicting and if he can't it takes Avery off the hook for his lack of production.

I don't agree at all that he needs to put up better numbers than I'm predicting. I think those numbers will be quite sufficient if Howard produces at the level of which he's capable, Bass continues his strong upward development, etc.

More importantly, you're not really debating the issue. It doesn't really matter whether he's better than some hypothetical group of players that includes Artest, because Artest wasnt on the table then. The move only has relevance at the time it was actually made, not at some future point where several variables could have affected the decision-making. Plus, you're making some unwarranted assumption that not trading Kidd would have automatically resulted in us getting Artest, which obviously isn't true.

[alby]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I don't agree at all that he needs to put up better numbers than I'm predicting. I think those numbers will be quite sufficient if Howard produces at the level of which he's capable, Bass continues his strong upward development, etc.

More importantly, you're not really debating the issue. It doesn't really matter whether he's better than some hypothetical group of players that includes Artest, because Artest wasnt on the table then. The move only has relevance at the time it was actually made, not at some future point where several variables could have affected the decision-making. Plus, you're making some unwarranted assumption that not trading Kidd would have automatically resulted in us getting Artest, which obviously isn't true.

and that's all you need to know.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I'm trying to figure out where you found the word "jump" in that quote.

Well Kidd said he would be shooting more shots.

When I think of shooting a shot, I generally think jump shot.

[Tokey41]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

There's an arms race in the Western conference. Teams around us are stockpiling talent. We don't need to trade Josh we need to add to him. We're not going to get significantly better sending away a SF who averages close to 20 and 7 and plays good defense. I know what he did in the playoffs but you need to replace that production on a nightly basis to even get to the playoffs.

There are two scenarios that would make us a Western conference contender. One is Gerald Green shocking the world and living up to his potential and the other is getting lucky enough to find a team willing to take our expiring contracts for a good player.

That's a good plan if your assuming Josh will be himself next season. How mentally tough do you think he really is? It's been a horrible offseason and he's not the brightest guy out there. Unfortunately for us that means its been pretty bad for the team as well, his trade value is probably in the pits right about now. That's why we should probably keep him for now and hope he can redeem himself (or at least increase his value a little bit).

If our master plan is to wait for Gerald Green to become a superstar then our entire front office should be fired. Like right now. We might get lucky with our expirings but i'm not holding my breath... when is the last time we really got that lucky in a trade? I can't even remember.

And as for Kidd taking more shots... wow.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Well Kidd said he would be shooting more shots.

When I think of shooting a shot, I generally think jump shot.

That's not very logical.

[DubOverdose]

Originally Posted by AxdemxO

Well since you answered the question before it was asked, it kind suggests tht you shouldnt be serious. I say your 3 points under, 3 assists under, and a rebound or 2 under

I said I was serious because I saw other predictions and I disagree with them. I haven't seen anything from Kidd to expect him to have a good season.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by DubOverdose

I said I was serious because I saw other predictions and I disagree with them. I haven't seen anything from Kidd to expect him to have a good season.

You do at least realize you're predicting a rather precipitous and, for Kidd at least, unprecedented decline in his productivity. In fact, if we restrict ourselves to looking at assist and rebound per minute numbers, the last two seasons have been the best of his career (his career high for rpm came two years ago and last year was his second best by that measure; his career best for apm was last year as well).

With the scoring numbers there is some reason to expect a drop-off, but even then a pessimistic interpretation of his career trajectory predicts just over 10 points per 34 minutes. Likewise for his true shooting percentage which figures to at least hover around the 50% mark. Not that that's good, or anything, but relative to his career standard its certainly not what you'd call a major drop-off (for reference he's been above the 50% mark in ts% in only 7 out of his 14 years in the league).

*I'm basing these lower ppm and ts% estimates on a quadratic regression, for those who care; in my own predictions I used a more optimistic linear model.

[Mavs Rule]

A flash from the past! Good to see you back C. Anyone else think this tidbit below is interesting? I wonder what the real reason for the gift is.

Jason Kidd gives gold medal to Vegas casino
1:39 PM Tue, Aug 26, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon E-mail News tips
Don't worry. This isn't a case of Jason Kidd paying off a Charles Barkley-sized gambling debt. He's just fulfilling a promise to Elaine Wynn of Wynn Casino fame.

"Last summer, we stayed at the Wynn for (what seemed like) a lifetime, close to three weeks," Kidd told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. "We met at a banquet, we got to talking, and she really understands the game.

"I told her I'd make a deal with her, that if we won the gold medal, I'd give it to her. She thought I was kidding. But I told her I had one already, and the way they treated us at the Wynn, it was the least I could do."

If you want to read about unfounded rumors of Kidd hooking up with a gold medal-winning gal, check out Ball Don't Lie.

[BGMaverick9]

That's kind of weird...but still cool.
At least he was honest and kept his word. But it's a GOLD MEDAL!!!

[DavidDaMonkey]

Here is my theory on Kidd's ppg, and why I think it will go up this year, even if only slightly. I think on the Nets, Kidd was looked at as a major scoring option. His role was not only to be a playmaker, but also a scorer as well. When he came to the Mavericks, we already had our scorers (even if they weren't shooting well) and his purpose was to make plays, thats what we needed. This year, with the advantage of a training camp, we can work him into plays as a scorer as well as a playmaker, and thus I think his ppg will actually be higher this season.

[craggmac]

Originally Posted by MavsX

your sig looks just like my dirkinator sig

Really? I built it two years ago, hence the dead robo-Shaq I added to it after we got beat in the finals.

[BGMaverick9]

11.2 ppg
5.3 rpg
9.7 apg
1.2 spg

I think that's very obtainable. I'm buying into the Carlisle/uptempo effect. I just think the rebounds might not be as high b/c Dirk, Damp, Bass, Diop and Josh can affect those rpgs.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by jthig32

That's not very logical.

Yes it is.

[mac222b]

Jason still plays excellent team d, is an underrated 3 point shooter and certainly helps Dirk get higher quality shots. But I don't think we have the personnel to run with him. J-ho is not a good open floor ball handler(stripped from behind more than any player in the league i would guess) or finisher and is not intuitive about when to "break". James Worthy he is not. He needs lots of dribbles(with his head down)to get where he's going. Low,low,low b'ball IQ... Terry was underutilized and jerked around alot. He could have a strong year for us with a clearer role.
I agree with the posters above, Tokyo 41 and Dirno?, in that we missed our window to attempt to win a title with Kidd and now it's a question of whether we can get anything for him at the deadline. Probably not much young talent available. There is no Gasol out there at least that i can see yet. Maybe Chicago w/Hinrich,Nocioni,Sefolosha,etc... So if we let him expire are we then actually under the cap? If that was the goal then why sign the Wrights, bareas and George's of the world to 2 yr deals? We're looking to 2010. Which kind of sucks. I hope I'm wrong and the FO shocks us with something we didn't see coming. I doubt it. The Bucks just gave Mo Williams away for next to nothing(not even draft picks). Rockets got Artest for 25c on the $. Same with R.jefferson. We were never players this offseason. Cuban has moved on to twin pipe dreams of Cubs and 'Bron.

[mavsfan1000]

Too humiliating to predict these stats. Man I wish we still had Harris. Life goes on I guess.

[Willstar]

11.5 PPG
4 RPG
9.5 APG
1 SPG

[DubOverdose]

Maybe I'm taking in to account his post season and olympic play too much. Probably not.

[LSMF]

Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

Too humiliating to predict these stats. Man I wish we still had Harris. Life goes on I guess.

I feel your pain buddy...

[VivaNajera]

9.6 PPG
6.5 REB
9.5 AST

41% FG
39% 3PT
78% FT
3.0 TO's

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by DubOverdose

Maybe I'm taking in to account his post season and olympic play too much. Probably not.

I don't know what your perspective is on Kidd's play in the Olympics, but to my eyes he played well. The low statistical productivity, if that's what's got you discounting his abilities, is extremely unconcerning to me given the style of play adopted by the Olympic team and the guys he was out there with.

As for the playoffs, if you're putting much stock at all in a single playoff series, you're putting too much stock in it. I'd think Mavs fans would have learned that from what Dirk's done since the GS loss.

[alby]

^ I bet you are racking up the rep the last couple of days

[LonghornDub]

I'm with alby. That guy rocks.