Hollinger with the hate crime - Page 2 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

ghazi · 01-08-2009, 01:36 AM

I see a legit playoff team some nights... a 9th place team other nights... I just wish I could see a contender team just once.

Based on my personal "eyeball" test I feel we are better than Phoenix and Portland. The other teams are so close to us that its hard to tell, and I'd pick the winner of a 7 game series with any of them based on who had homecourt.

nowhereman · 01-08-2009, 03:15 AM

1. Hollinger isn't a Mav's hater. He was adamant about Dirk being MVP in '05-'06, and last year his system had the Mavs as the sixth best team.

2. He IS strictly a numbers guy. He assesses the game based on what his formulas crunch out. He very rarely deviates from what the numbers say.

3. Because he relies on formulas and retroactively warrants what the formula will crunch out, his analysis is a little off kilter. As far as a predictive system goes, Hollinger's is one of the best. It takes a massive data set as a baseline, then creates a pythagorean to assess the strength of a team by normalizing it to what historically happens. But the system has obvious, and probably unavoidable, errors:

- It is a system that favors a huge win and a close loss over two close wins since the pythagorean is based on MOV.
- It is a system that doesn't balance a specific team's tendencies (human factors) to e.g. avoid injury or get better over the season.
- It is a system that normalizes mid-season data to an end-season result and avoids the play on the numbers that could eventually happen. This takes me back to the Golden State series. At the start of the series Hollinger had us at about 75% to win the series. After the G1 loss, he said we were only 50%. That's the hazard of basing percentages on incomplete information.

So Hollinger's real failing here is to rely too much on his own numbers and go back to justify what the numbers say. But that's the same failing that provided the impetus for him to create a ranking in the first place, and I'm happier with some sort of barometer, imperfect as it may be, than with not having one at all. It does give us a good guideline for where this team stands. It doesn't account for human factors.. those are for messageboards.

Thespiralgoeson · 01-08-2009, 04:17 AM

I don't see any "failing" here with Hollinger's article. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Mavs miss the playoffs.

nowhereman · 01-08-2009, 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

I don't see any "failing" here with Hollinger's article. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Mavs miss the playoffs.

Your two sentences are actually unrelated. Hollinger's conclusion might well be the correct one. But that doesn't mean his analysis is 100% merited. If Hollinger were to predict today that the Cavs will win the championship (which he does), his prediction might come true, but his methodology might still have failed. His argument seems weak because he (as he historically always does) probably sets up his arguments based on what his numbers tell him, and his numbers can be infinitely permutated between now and the end of the season. Again:

Quote:

Originally Posted by nowhereman

Hollinger's real failing here is to rely too much on his own numbers and go back to justify what the numbers say. But that's the same failing that provided the impetus for him to create a ranking in the first place, and I'm happier with some sort of barometer, imperfect as it may be, than with not having one at all. It does give us a good guideline for where this team stands. It doesn't account for human factors.. those are for messageboards.

nowhereman · 01-08-2009, 05:37 AM

For the record, i would be mildly surprised if the Mavs did not make the playoffs. But it comes down to the result of immeasurable late-season scenarios. The Hollinger rankings exist to tell us basically where a team stands, based on objective (quantitative) measurements. But like I said, there's a ton of human factors, and the fact that the numbers will change considerably over the course of the season, and therefore there is a considerable margin of error in his calculations and his opinions. A much greater margin of error than the seperation between teams 2 and 9.

I don't agree with Hollinger's textual analysis here, and I do indeed think he worked backwards from a numerical conclusion to explain why the numbers turned out the way they did. When you're cranking out articles daily for the worldwide leader, it becomes a useful heuristic for analysis. We watch the team very closely, and we will all say that you can't really sell short the Mav's recent clutchness in the 4th quarter (memphis aside), Dirk Nowitzki's track record, and the fact that if this team is struggling near the allstar break it very well might swing for the fences with another trade. What everyone can agree on is that there isn't any real seperation demonstrated yet.

twelli · 01-08-2009, 06:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

Dirk Nowitzki.

Honestly, this team might be bad enough that 'just making the playoffs' will be the season's storyline. I don't know. What I do know is that I trust Dirk to carry us into the playoffs waaay more than I would trust Tracy McGrady or Roy.

I second that. Dirk is too good to not lead the Mavs to at least the 6th seed. If Dirk, Terry, Kidd and Dampier continue to play well together we have a good chance to not only get into the playoffs but win in the first round too. But any further success requires a miracle, or a trade that really improves the roster.

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 08:43 AM

If I had to bet money on who would make the playoffs I'd bet money on the mavs. I think they will make it in at 7th or 8th place in standings

Underdog · 01-08-2009, 08:46 AM

One injury to any star on any team Hollinger just mentioned and you can toss his numbers out the window... Same applies to a trade...

The NBA isn't a play-by-numbers sport - no sport is... That's why they call it a "sport"...

Chaos happens outside the vacuum of mathematical formulas - that's why we enjoy watching sports... Otherwise you can just build a team, run the numbers, hand out the trophy, and skip the season!

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

If I had to bet money on who would make the playoffs I'd bet money on the mavs. I think they will make it in at 7th or 8th place in standings

Even tho the West is much tougher, the Mavs are likely to seed higher and have more wins than the NJNETS.

*Here I found you a new home. Try this place out, and forget this place ever existed.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=12

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Even tho the West is much tougher, the Mavs are likely to seed higher and have more wins than the NJNETS.

*Here I found you a new home. Try this place out, and forget this place ever existed.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=12

I never said Nets were going to have more wins why are you bringging it back to the Nets. I thought at the beginning of the season and still think Mavs will only be in the playoffs at 7th or 8th seed and even if they are higher in seed I think the highest they go in 6th, and with the team right now I don't think they would do much in the playoffs.

and I already post there but thanks for the link anyway a little later there

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

I never said Nets were going to have more wins why are you bringging it back to the Nets. I thought at the beginning of the season and still think Mavs will only be in the playoffs at 7th or 8th seed

and I already post there but thanks for the link anyway a little later there

1)Because you are a nets fan.

2)What does that mean? a little later there...? Is it possible to check or do a once over before you press send on your comments? Every oner of yoursers are liked this ways. It's not brain seargentry!

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

1)Because you are a nets fan.

2)What does that mean? a little later there...? Is it possible to check or do a once over before you press send on your comments? Every oner of yoursers are liked this ways. It's not brain seargentry!

Yeah I am a Nets fans, but I didn't bring them up, so you didn't have to make a comment about them. You could have just said you think the mavs will be higher then 7th or 8th seed

And what I meant was "a little late there" meaning I already knew about the other site

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

Yeah I am a Nets fans, but I didn't bring them up, so you didn't have to make a comment about them. You could have just said you think the mavs will be higher then 7th or 8th seed

And what I meant was "a little late there" meaning I already knew about the other site

Yeah, well if you are going to stay here and annoy the hell out of 98% of us then I think I will rag on your stupid .500 team.

ty · 01-08-2009, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Yeah, well if you are going to stay here and annoy the hell out of 98% of us then I think I will rag on your stupid .500 team.

Only 98%?

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ty

Only 98%?

I did the research and there seems to be 2% that think they can maybe get some....

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Yeah, well if you are going to stay here and annoy the hell out of 98% of us then I think I will rag on your stupid .500 team.

ok

Flacolaco · 01-08-2009, 01:02 PM

Shes trying to woo you with some kind of odd Apple propaganda.

Sportstudi · 01-08-2009, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

As Dirk would say "Obviously".

Without a trade that brings instant chemistry and balanced offense consistently it's pointless to think that if we make the playoffs we stand a chance anyway. I think it's pissing in the wind as to who is left out of the playoffs. Anything can happen and injuries will take a toll on some team. I'm just looking to our future because we got nothing as currently built. Just need to get moving FO, come on.

I guess you mean to go after a trade which includes Howard

Sportstudi · 01-08-2009, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ty

Hollinger probably confuses himself more than he confuses other people.

Or he asked Josh about his dealer before writing his column

Sportstudi · 01-08-2009, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

Yeah I am a Nets fans, but I didn't bring them up, so you didn't have to make a comment about them. You could have just said you think the mavs will be higher then 7th or 8th seed

And what I meant was "a little late there" meaning I already knew about the other site

So what the heck are you doing here?

MavericksFan5912 · 01-08-2009, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghazi

I don't think the Mavs will miss the playoffs, but what Hollinger says is not farfetchd at all. What has been our major injury? Josh Howard seriously should not count. We've been healthy all year and have only amassed a 21-13 record, 5-9 against +.500 teams, and have had a bunch of nailbiters against bad teams.

The Mavs need to raise their level of play because the competition is about to get better.

I totally agree. The competition in the second half of the season is much tougher than in the first, as the playoff races begin to tighten. Does anyone else here think that Dallas should be developing and playing point guards like JJ Barea MORE than they play Jason Kidd? Does anyone else here see Kidd as a liability on both ends of the floor the way I do?

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

ok

nowhereman · 01-08-2009, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

If I had to bet money on who would make the playoffs I'd bet money on the mavs. I think they will make it in at 7th or 8th place in standings

I spend 10 minutes on a well thought out response and you follow it up with this sh*t and completely derail the thread. thanks, cooze.

LonghornDub · 01-08-2009, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavericksFan5912

Does anyone else here see Kidd as a liability on both ends of the floor the way I do?

Only the folks that don't have eyes.

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sportstudi

I guess you mean to go after a trade which includes Howard

Oh yes. It has to be Howard, as far as getting a key piece in return.

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I wouldn't call mavs a sinking ship now they are more like this kind

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 02:28 PM

That is the Mavs sailing the glorious seas of a winning record, unlike the NETS.

The NETS are in rought waters aboard the "FOREVER SHITTY".

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 03:42 PM

Nowhereman, why did you give me bad rep for this?

"I'm ruining it for everyone"? What does that mean?

(Am I not supposed to say if someone gives me neg rep?)

Dallas2009CHAMPS · 01-08-2009, 03:44 PM

zing

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

That is the Mavs sailing the glorious seas of a winning record, unlike the NETS.

The NETS are in rought waters aboard the "FOREVER SHITTY".

well if the Mavs booked on and are sailing the glorious seas I hope they don't choose Carnival the cheapest line of them all

and the Nets aren't aboard that ship Brook wouldn't not allow that to happen they would be booked on this ship

^with Slash of course, and that really is Slash no joke he was on my cruise

Flacolaco · 01-08-2009, 03:57 PM

So...That Hollinger...that guy sucks.

hamb · 01-08-2009, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

well if the Mavs booked on and are sailing the glorious seas I hope they don't choose Carnival the cheapest line of them all

and the Nets aren't aboard that ship Brook wouldn't not allow that to happen they would be booked on this ship

^with Slash of course, and that really is Slash no joke he was on my cruise

stalker

Dirkadirkastan · 01-08-2009, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

^with Slash of course, and that really is Slash no joke he was on my cruise

You bitch! I don't know who that guy is, but you ruined his cruise with your ugly face and foul stench.

Sportstudi · 01-08-2009, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

You bitch! I don't know who that guy is, but you ruined his cruise with your ugly face and foul stench.

He was the former guitarist of Guns'n'Roses (85-96) and is now playing for Velvet Revolver. He is not that unknown...

But for the latter part of your post: Yeah, could have been a possibility...

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

You bitch! I don't know who that guy is, but you ruined his cruise with your ugly face and foul stench.

are you for real, you don't know who he is, you must live on a different planet or something, that's like someone not knowing who Dirk is, Guns n' Roses dude, Guns n' Roses

and I didn't ruin his cruise, sorry to say your wrong.

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sportstudi

He was the former guitarist of Guns'n'Roses (85-96) and is now playing for Velvet Revolver. He is not that unknown...

But for the latter part of your post: Yeah, could have been a possibility...

I'm actually suprised by how many people don't know who slash is.

mary · 01-08-2009, 04:30 PM

I'm surprised how many threads in the Mavs section veer off into crap that doesn't remotely resemble sports talk.

If you want to share vacation stories, take it to the Lounge.

The Lounge would be the proper place for a "Hey look at me...I met a famous musician on a cruise ship" thread.

The middle of a Mavs related thread...not so much.

Sportstudi · 01-08-2009, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mary

I'm surprised how many threads in the Mavs section veer off into crap that doesn't remotely resemble sports talk.

If you want to share vacation stories, take it to the Lounge.

The Lounge would be the proper place for a "Hey look at me...I met a famous musician on a cruise ship" thread.

The middle of a Mavs related thread...not so much.

You're right. But I just wanted to be polite and answer the question about that guy...

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mary

I'm surprised how many threads in the Mavs section veer off into crap that doesn't remotely resemble sports talk.

If you want to share vacation stories, take it to the Lounge.

The Lounge would be the proper place for a "Hey look at me...I met a famous musician on a cruise ship" thread.

The middle of a Mavs related thread...not so much.

hey sorry, but I didn't start it someone else brought up the Nets and it wasn't me. that's how it all started on this thread

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 05:03 PM

I thought Slash was what the EMO kids went home and did if they had a bad day???

Ehh, I wonder if Hollinger knows who Slash is.

Go MAVS.