2018 NBA Draft

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Care to elaborate? Bagley has the ability to spread the floor and is really athletic for his size. I admit I haven't watched Monroe a lot, but I was under the impression he doesn't stray far from the basket. Both are good rebounders, but Bagley also seems to possess enough skill to take a defensive rebound coast to coast which is something I imagine Monroe doesn't do much of.

I don't know where this myth that Bagley III is a good shooter comes from. He's shooting 62% on FTs this year, and he gets 6.8 FTA per game. That's not a fluke. He's tied for the 22nd highest scorer in the NCAA, and for perspective, he has the 2nd lowest FT% of any of college's top 100 scorers, and only 6 players shoot below 70% & most shoot over 80%.

Greg Monroe is a career 70.4% FT shooter, who shot 62.2% his rookie year (and 67.7% in college).

From NBAdraftroom:

He has elite coordination and speed for his size and he'll be a match-up nightmare once he gets a consistent jump shot

Also from NBAdraftroom:

He isn't much of a rim protector and tends to shy away from contact and fails to challenge shots at the rim

^^^The same is often said of Greg Monroe...

From nbadraft.net's scouting report of Monroe

Body strength is a question mark. Tends to avoid contact

Taken from scouting reports on Bagley & Monroe coming out of college

Bagley

Has stretch big potential

Monroe

Nice touch on his jumper with range out to the three-point area

Monroe shot 27.3% from 3 in college. Bagley shoots 35.4%. Monroe is 0 for 12 for 3s in his NBA career.

From a Washington Post article on this year's bigs back in January

Bagley III has been dominant in the post, but scouts are wary of his jump-shooting game

Bagley has a bag of tricks for post moves and has spent his freshman year facing off against undersized opponents. But he’s struggled against those same smaller forwards when guarding the perimeter. And though he’s excelling in Duke’s classical three-guard, two-forward set, his frame translates as a huge small forward or a developing center. In short, the guy with the 7-foot wingspan is somehow stuck between positions

upon entering the league, there are some constants, players and coaches said. Playing consistent defense is chief among them... The NBA is less reliant on blocks than ever, and depends on forwards and centers to defend point guards in pick-and-roll situations, or to contest perimeter shots

I could go on, but the main point is a lot of scouts said Monroe had a good handle, good face up game, strong rebounder and the potential to become a good low post scorer, even a stretch 4 at the next level. Yet, they had major concerns about his defensive abilities, even his defensive effort at times. Even from college you could see he was projected as a one-way player. And one thing Monroe does have that they don't say about Bagley is Monroe is an exceptional passer. I've heard the opposite about Bagley. Some think he's a black hole & doesn't look for his teammates enough.

This is obviously a critical look at Bagley. But, it's fair imo. Sure, he has a lot of upside & he might be able to correct some of these concerns. But, can he overcome all of this???

Personally, I don't think so. I think he's a one-dimensional player. I don't think he can handle perimeter defense or will develop into a player who can. He's definitely not JJJ in that respect. He may develop a jump shot, especially given the emphasis in today's game, but I don't think he'll ever be elite, and I think it's super fair to question whether his strengths will be as pronounced against players in the NBA who possess his same quickness, size & athleticism. You negate that advantage & what can Bagley III fall back on?