ESPN Insider 4/13/06 - Is Chis Paul better than Magic?

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Why Chris Paul is better than you think

By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

Portland. Boston. Utah. Milwaukee. Atlanta. Charlotte. Toronto.

All of them, and perhaps a few other teams, could have had Chris Paul in the 2005 draft. And with each passing game, the mistake those teams made is becoming more and more obvious. Based on his rookie year, Paul has essentially been the next Magic Johnson ... only better.

"CP3" (not be confused with his pal R2-D2) almost single-handedly rejuvenated a reeling New Orleans/Oklahoma City team that was coming off an 18-64 season, had been forced to relocate just weeks before the season started and had traded its All-Star center in the offseason. With only a week to go, observers are stunned to see Paul's Hornets steadfastly clinging to life in the Western Conference playoff race. Already the Hornets have more than doubled last season's win total, and with a strong flourish, they could even crack the West's top eight.

As a result, Paul is going to win the Rookie of the Year award. Check that -- Paul is going to win unanimously, with a Jupiter-sized gap between him and whichever guy comes in second. (And if they gave out an award for having your jersey neatly tucked in at all times, he'd win that too.)

Paul's Rookie of the Year status is well known, of course ... so why am I bringing it up now? Because I don't think most people realize what a remarkable season Paul is putting together. At first glance, most folks think of his year as good, yes, but not great ... and certainly not historic.

One reason is that his traditional stats don't jump off the page -- 16.4 points, 7.9 assists and 5.3 rebounds. That's sure as heck better than any other rookie this year, but doesn't exactly evoke visions of Bird and Magic taking the league by storm. And he's shooting only 43.2 percent from the floor and 28.3 percent on 3-pointers, so one might think he's not terribly efficient, either.

But Paul is devastating in other ways. For starters, he takes a ton of free throws. Paul averages six free throws per game, or about one for every two field goal attempts -- a ridiculously high rate for a point guard. Thus, even without a good shooting percentage or many 3-pointers, his true shooting percentage is 54.9 percent -- placing him 10th among point guards.

Placing 10th doesn't sound overly impressive until you start going down the line and realizing Paul is in the upper tier of his position in every category. Of the possessions he uses, 31.3 percent end with an assist -- that puts him 10th. He turns it over on just 9.4 percent of the possessions he uses -- that's 11th best. And he's an obscenely good rebounder, ranking second only to Jason Kidd among point guards in rebound rate.

Add it all up and Paul's player efficiency rating of 22.35 is quite impressive. It ranks fifth overall at the point position, and it's that low only because the position is unusually strong this year. Chauncey Billups, Steve Nash, Gilbert Arenas and Allen Iverson are the point guards ahead of him, and all four are having career years in terms of PER. Leaguewide, Paul's mark ranks 17th -- ahead of the PERs of Carmelo Anthony, Ray Allen and Vince Carter.

But the impact of Paul's season doesn't really settle in until you compare him with other rookie guards. Off the top of your head, you might think it's fairly common for a rookie point guard to come in and play roughly as well as Paul has. Guess again.

Most rookie point guards, even the ones who turn out to be total studs, struggle mightily. Such greats as John Stockton, Gary Payton, Steve Nash, Mark Price, Gail Goodrich, Mo Cheeks and Tiny Archibald all had PERs below the league average as rookies. So for a guard such as Paul to come along and take over immediately is unusual.

The same is almost as true for shooting guards. Only a rare few can come in and star immediately. Even the greats tend to do what Dwyane Wade and Clyde Drexler did -- have a rookie season during which they occasionally star and leave obvious hints of their enormous potential, but don't consistently put up All-Star numbers.

As a result, Paul's rookie season stacks up well when compared with those of other rookie guards in NBA history. Very well. Shockingly well. Let's cut right to the chase. Here's a complete list of every guard in NBA history to post a better rookie PER than Paul's:

1. Oscar Robertson
2. Michael Jordan

Yes, that is the whole list. MJ and the Big O. In terms of PER, Paul is the best rookie guard in two decades and the best rookie point guard in 45 years.

You were looking for some other names? Sorry, they don't stack up.

Let's start with the one most of you will ask about: Magic.

As a rookie, Earvin Johnson averaged 18.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists and shot 53.0 percent while leading the Lakers to a championship. You might think, then, that the Magic man was better than Paul as a rookie, but you'd have a tough time proving it.

Despite Magic's having become synonymous with the triple-double, Paul's triple-double stats (points, rebounds, assists) as a rookie actually compare very well. Magic's scoring edge withers to almost nothing once you adjust for the difference in scoring between 1980 and 2006, and believe it or not, Paul has a much better assist ratio (percentage of possessions that end in an assist). The Magic man maintains an advantage in rebound rate, but it's much smaller than the disparity in per-game numbers would make you believe.

So what's the difference between Paul and Magic? Turnovers. The Magic man was a turnover machine as a young player (he set a record in the Finals that year with 10 in a single game), coughing it up far more often than Paul has (15.1 percent of possessions for Magic to 9.3 percent for Paul). So essentially, Paul is doing nearly all the things Magic did as a rookie but with substantially fewer turnovers. No, Paul won't be able to play center in Game 6 of the Finals, but short of that, it's hard to make a case for Johnson as the superior rookie.

Top Rookie Seasons by Guards in NBA History (Ranked By PER)
PLAYER SEASON TEAM PTS/40 REB/40 AST/40 TS% PER
Oscar Robertson '60-61 Cincinnati 28.6 9.4 9.1 55.5 25.9*
Michael Jordan '84-85 Chicago 29.4 6.8 6.1 59.2 25.8
Chris Paul '05-06 NO/OC 18.1 5.8 8.7 54.9 22.4
Magic Johnson '79-80 Los Angeles 19.9 8.5 8.1 60.2 20.6
Vince Carter '98-99 Toronto 20.8 6.4 3.4 51.6 19.6
Calvin Murphy '70-71 San Diego 25.7 4.9 6.5 53.2 19.4*
Steve Francis '99-'00 Houston 20.0 5.9 7.3 54.3 18.4
Allen Iverson '96-97 Philadelphia 23.5 4.1 7.4 51.3 18.0
Rod Strickland '88-89 New York 21.2 4.7 9.4 53.9 18.0
Andre Miller '99-'00 Cleveland 17.5 5.4 9.1 51.7 17.9
* NBA didn't track individual turnovers before 1977-78; PER relies on estimate for turnovers.

And so it goes down the line. Johnson was actually the best rookie guard after Jordan and Robertson before Paul came along. The next two closest were Vince Carter and Calvin Murphy, but both have obvious shortcomings to Paul as a passer and Paul has a much better true shooting percentage than either. The comparisons get more one-sided as we move further down the list.

Having done this exercise, we find ourselves pondering a much bigger question: How good can this guy be? If only two guards in the history of the league can match what he did as a rookie, does this destine Paul to become one of the best guards of all time?

Unfortunately, that conclusion doesn't necessarily follow. Players improve at different rates for different reasons, and ironically, one factor that works against Paul is his low turnover rate. In general, players with a high turnover rate as young players tend to improve more in future seasons than their low-turnover counterparts. Even players who eventually became low-turnover guys, like Chauncey Billups, had high rates as rookies.

However, another trend should strongly outweigh the one above: Most guards improve massively over the course of their first three pro seasons. If Paul follows anywhere close to that trend line, he's going to be the best point guard in basketball within a year or two.

Additionally, it's not hard to see where the improvement might come. Paul's shooting percentages have substantial room for increase, and his form is good enough to suggest he'll find the range once he gets used to the pro 3-point line. Plus, Paul is only 20 years old, so he might develop further physically, too.

So although he might not (or might) end up being the caliber of player the Big O and Jordan were, that's about all we can say about Paul's ceiling. He's already as good as nearly any other point guard in game today, and as he learns his craft and develops his jumper, he'll only get better. Not bad for a guy who, in one way or another, saw seven teams pass on him in the draft.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. His book "Pro Basketball Forecast: 2005-06" is available at Amazon.com and Potomac Books. To e-mail him, click here.
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Chat with John Hollinger

Welcome to The Show! On Thursday, NBA columnist John Hollinger will stop by to chat about the season, the upcoming playoffs and his column comparing Chris Paul to Magic Johnson.

Send your questions now and join John in The Show on Thursday at 1 p.m. ET.

Hollinger archives: Columns | Chats

SportsNation John Hollinger: Greetings everyone and welcome to a bonus edition of my chat. Lots of interesting playoff races to talk about, as well as that Chris Paul fellow.

Jay - Milwaukee, WI: Will Terry Stotts be the Bucks coach at the start of next year? ..and will Jamal Magloire be on their roster?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Milwaukee has a lot of important decisions to make this summer, and it starts with figuring out why there were so bad on D. You would think with guys like Magloire, Simmons and Bogut they could get a few stops. My guess is that Stotts is back and Magloire isn't, because right now they're basically paying Gadzuric for no reason, but I wouldn't bet anything important to me on it.

Joe (Dover, NH): Are you nuts ? CP has been good and even great, but there is no way that he's BETTER than Magic. Magic got a championship on his rookie year.

SportsNation John Hollinger: As a rookie, CP has been better than Magic. Does that mean he's going to move to center and get 42 and 15 in a playoff game? No. Does that the rest of his career will turn out better than Magic's? No. But has he been better in his rookie season? Sure.

Willie (Sayville, NY): John, I'm a big fan of yours and your use of statistical analysis, but I have a feeling your editor sent you on this "Chris Paul" mission. How can Paul's season accurately be compared with Magic's unless he too makes a trip to the NBA Finals? What is more, who's to say that he wouldn't have 11 turnovers in a Finals game?! And one final point. If Magic Johnson and Jason Kidd have proven anything, it is that turnovers should not be weighted the same for every player. Agreed?

SportsNation John Hollinger: So we can't compare Chris Paul to Magic unless we put Kareem on his team? That seems silly. As far as turnovers not being the same for every player ... I mean, the end result is the same, right? No matter how spectacular it looked, the team still lost the ball.

mike (hillsborough, NJ): What kind of numbers do you see Chris Paul putting up when he hits the prime of his career?

SportsNation John Hollinger: I think a lot of it depends on how he progresses as a shooter. If you look a lot of the greatest players -- Magic, Jordan, now LeBron -- they made extraordinary strides as shooters over the course of their careers. Paul would need to follow a similar path to achieve superstardom.

caleb (salem,or): Did you read Bill Simmons comment about The Big O yesterday? Any chance you might expand on that?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Nothing to expand upon -- he nailed it. Stats from that era, especially rebounding stats, are grossly inflated. That's why I cringe every time I hear one of the old-timers ripping Shaq because Russell and Wilt would get 30 rebounds in a game and he doesn't -- you can only get a rebound if somebody misses a shot, and there's a lot fewer misses than there used to be.

Stevo (Ft. Lauderdale, FL): Whatever happened to the D-Wade MVP campaign? Just because the Heat are coasting into the playoffs (Shaq always said he didn't care what seed they are) doesn't mean that Dwyane deserves to be overlooked again. Best 2-guard since MJ.

SportsNation John Hollinger: Here's the thing -- there's five days left in the season and I have absolutely no idea who I'm voting for. A lot of writers I know are in the same boat. My "Final 4" is LeBron, Dirk, Wade and Kobe, but splitting hairs among them is, to say the least, challenging.

Joseph Bethesda, Md.: Where do you rank Kidd, Jefferson, and Carter in the league as a trio? Do you think another team has 3 players better than they do?

SportsNation John Hollinger: I think Phoenix would with a healthy Stoudemire, and San Antonio does with a healthy Ginobili. But since those two guys haven't been healthy this year, I think RJ would have to win the unofficial award as league's best third banana.

Quentin (Auburn, AL): Should Lebron play in any of the remaining games this season? If so, or if not, how many of these games could the Cavs win since they were so putrid last night when the King went to the bench in the second quarter?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Let me put it this way -- I wouldn't send him back out there unless I was absolutely certain he was 100%. The Cavs have absolutely nothing to play for right now. I'm sure they'd like to get him at least one game before Round 1 starts though.

mike (hillsborough, nj): Out of this past years draft do you think Paul will wind up being the best player down the road, or will someone like Gerald Green or Marvin Williams become the better player?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Paul is so far ahead of these guys right now that it would be an upset if he didn't also have the best career.

Gary (Memphis): I like Chris Paul and he has led his team admirably this season, but why would you compare it let alone say it was better than Magic's? Is it because Magic didn't win Rookie of the Year?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Magic's rookie season has taken on an aura of legend because he was alraedy a big name, he came to L.A., and his team won the title. But look at the numbers instead of the names and tell me why Paul hasn't been better.

Jake (Cedar Rapids, IA): A lot of you sports writing types have said you have no vote for MVP... yet. Still waiting to see the last few games is what you tell us. So, now that Lebron and Wade might miss a few games (and Nash gets a lightened load), does this work against them? Why can't you simply analyze the first 70 some odd games and come up with a player? This "Tight MVP race" seems like a huge cop out for ESPN analysts.

SportsNation John Hollinger: I think some people are waiting to see if Dallas gets the No. 1 seed out West. If so, Dirk becomes hard to ignore. If not, it's a little easier to pass him up. In a lesser way, the same is true for the Lakers and Kobe -- people want to make sure they're a playoff team before pulling the trigger.

Teresa (Grand Rapids, Mi): You brought up your Final Four for MVP and Nash wasn't in it... you gotta explain why.

SportsNation John Hollinger: Real simple ... the other four guys were better. I know a lot of people have Nash in the fray, or Billups, Brand, Melo, and Tony Parker, but I can't put any of them in a class with those other four guys.

Travis (Lansing, MI): With the recent collapse of the Nets, the Heat playing hurt, and Lebron going down, who, if anyone, can actually challenge the Pistons in the playoffs?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Recent collapse is perhaps a bit strong -- they've won 15 of 17. I agree with your basic premise that the Heat are overwhelming favorites, but Miami or NJ will take a couple games off them.

Sasha (LA): How do you see the hornets doing next year? I think Chris Paul and David West are good players, but I don't see them becoming a dominate 1-2 punch. What missing pieces need to be filled in for the Hornets to be an Elite Team?

SportsNation John Hollinger: In a nutshell, more scorers. The Hornets are entirely too dependent on Paul and West because they don't get offense from any other spots. That's why J.R. Smith's development is going to be so important. If he takes a step forward and they either find a small forward with a pulse or revive the artist formerly known as Desmond Mason, they'll be a playoff team.

Matt (Madison, WI): How do you see the 6-8 seeds ending up out East? And will it matter anyway, or will they all get swept?

SportsNation John Hollinger: I'll go Milwaukee-Chicago-Indiana, but no, it won't matter, because they're all roadkill in Round 1. While I have a chance, though, gotta admire how hard those end of the bench guys played for the Bulls last night in a key game.

Chester (Boston, MA): Can you see anyone other than the Pistons or Heat advancing to the finals out of the East?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Only in a scenario that involved injuries. If everybody's healthy it would be those two, but Miami is banged up right now, so if one of Detroit's Wallaces popped a hammy things could shift pretty quickly.

Brian (Raleigh): I know CP3 is great and everything but over the past 2-3 months I would make the argument that Felton has been the best rookie. He has won it the last 2 months and if he actually played the pg and not the sg spot he would avg 9 assists a game easily. your thoughts.

SportsNation John Hollinger: Felton is having a fine rookie season and certainly justifying a draft selection that was originally seen as a reach ... but in comparision to Paul he falls way short. Felton takes too many jumpers for somebody with such an erratic stroke and needs to get to the line more.

Dan (Ottawa): Can we ever get a question about the Canadian team? John, The Raptors have a few key pieces already with them. Who should they look at drafting or signing? Should they resign Mike James as well?

SportsNation John Hollinger: I've had several questions in here about James. They key to me is the years. If he wants a five-year deal they should run away. Three years with an option for four and they're good to go. But I have a feeling somebody will offer James five years, so T-dot's best move might be a sign-and-trade.

tim (ny,ny): With the big scoring night by Antoine Walker the other day, do you think that the Heat have enough fire power with everyone healthy to get to the Eastern Conference finals or was that just an abberation?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Of course they do ... IF everyone is healthy. But they need Zo to come back, and the Jason Williams thing is a huge concern because the glove has lost his grip.

David Stern: Talk some Most Improved Player for a minute. Does Boris Diaw still have it locked up?

SportsNation John Hollinger: Has to be Diaw to me. But I've been floored by the picks for this award more than once, so nothing would completely shock me.

Allen (Los Angeles, CA): John, can you explain your theory that a players is "simply" better because he has good numbers? It seems extremely flawed. Your top 4 picks for the MVP might have nice numbers, but that doesn't make them more effective or better than, say, your nemesis, Nash, whose basketball IQ, work ethic, effort, and leadership cannot be measured. Yet these, not taking 30 shots a game, are what make players good.

SportsNation John Hollinger: Basically, I was trying to explain my rationale without launching into a dissertation. I think Nash's MVP candidacy has been more an emotional reaction than a logical one, and it's something which long-time chatters are probably already sick of hearing me talk about, so I kept it brief.

Mario (Bell Gardens, CA): John, why isn't ELTON BRAND on your list of possible players to give your MVP vote?

SportsNation John Hollinger: I think he's in that second group with Nash, Billups, Melo et al. But maybe now that he's in the playoffs people will finally realize what a great player he is.

JB (Cleveland): Lebron WILL average 39 points , 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, on 52% shooting in the first round series.

SportsNation John Hollinger: This is the kind of inside scoop you can only get in my chats.

Sharad, Princeton, NJ: OKKK.....Paul ws NOT better than Kidd, Penny, or Kvin Johnson as a rookie

SportsNation John Hollinger: Check out what those three did as rookies and get back to me. Penny was solid as a rook but didn't blow up until year 2. Same goes for KJ. Kidd was awful at the start of his rookie year before coming on at the end but still had dreadful shooting numbers (even by his standards).

Dave (San Antonio: The Spurs biggest problem this year has been the second game of a back-to-back. 10 of their 18 losses have been in such situations. Throw out these games and the Spurs have the best record in the league. How significant is this? Since there are no back-to-backs in the playoffs, do you think this should increase the Spurs chances of going all the way?

SportsNation John Hollinger: It should help the Spurs a bit with Duncan's foot problem, but don't take it for more than it's worth because A) Most teams do markedly worse in the second of a back-to-back and B) It's a small sample of games. To put in perspective, the Mavs losing Keith Van Horn probably did more for the Spurs' chances than anything the schedule could do.

Willie (Sayville, NY): John, if the playoffs are part of the season, and Chris paul will not play in the playoffs, shouldn't you amend your argument to "third best REGULAR season" by a guard? Us Magic Johnson fans could probably accept that.

SportsNation John Hollinger: In general, when people talk about "season' they're usually taling about "regular season" but perhaps I should have clarified that. Magic averaged 18.3-10.5-9.4 in his first postseason, so he certainly elevated his game.

Eric (Salt Lake City): Woah, woah. If you are going to answer a question about Felton vs Paul. Then you need to answer a question about Paul vs Deron Williams. Since Jan. 1st no one in the NBA has shot better from the 3 point line than D-Will. In your opinion how does Deron compare to Paul? I think Deron is at the very least in the top 3 of the rookie class.

SportsNation John Hollinger: Williams is knocking down the 3s, but overall I'm still very unimpressed. If he can't get to the basket at 22, what's he going to be like at 28?

chris long beach ca: Do u think the Lakers have any chance in the first round and, do u think kobe will win the mvp.

SportsNation John Hollinger: Lakers have a puncher's chance as long as they get the No. 7 seed, because Phoenix has defended very poorly down the stretch. As far as Kobe winning MVP, I think he's going to end up No.1 on some ballots and left entirely off some others, and because of that I don't think he's going to end up getting it.

Paul, Dallas Texas: What does the Warrior's 3rd win over Dallas say? I'm worried that if you get into their head you got it made...

SportsNation John Hollinger: Don't sweat it. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

Mike (Miami, FL): Come on admit it, wouldn't you rather be in South Beach for the NBA finals than Detroit?

SportsNation John Hollinger: OF COURSE. For those who haven't been, Detroit's arena is about 30 miles out in Suburbia, so let's just say that once work ended the entertainment options were limited. But it seems as though me and my media budies will get to spend another week in the friendly confines of Troy, Michigan this June, so I'm not even getting my hopes up.

SportsNation John Hollinger: And on that happy note, that's all the time I have for today. Be sure to check out the piece on Chris Paul's rookie season if you haven't already, and we'll do this again on Monday at 3.