Josh Powell

[V]

Revising the circumstances surrounding Josh Powell and his fateful decision to enter the 2003 NBA draft ...

June 2, 2003

Powell Enters Risky Territory

Wolfpack forward Josh Powell certainly will be worth watching over the next several months, and one can only hope that his troubling story has a happy ending.

Powell, who came on strong at the end of the 2002-03 season and would be one of the top big men in the ACC next year, announced his intention to test the NBA waters soon after final exams were over. He did not immediately sign with an agent, however, at least temporarily leaving a door open for his return. Georgia Tech freshman Chris Bosh, who likely will be among the first 10 players taken, was the ACC’s only other early entry this year.

From the start, there was reason for concern among Wolfpack fans. According to sources, someone convinced Powell that he could be taken in the first round even if he didn’t get an invitation to the pre-draft combine in Chicago. (He later did receive one of the 60 available slots.) According to more than a dozen NBA sources, that proposed scenario was a complete fabrication, and it should have been a warning sign that Powell was getting questionable advice.

“Maybe it will work out OK because he got an invitation, and if he does well (in Chicago) anything can happen,” one NBA source said. “But I can tell you that as recently as (early May), when he was probably getting his advice, there wasn’t a single NBA person I know who had Josh Powell on their radar screen for the first round. Now maybe that will change, but anyone who told him (in April) that he was a sure-thing first-rounder was playing a very dangerous game and putting that kid’s future at risk.”

Powell improved dramatically as a sophomore, after a rigorous workout regimen added some 20 pounds of muscle to his frame, but he still is lacking some basic skills. Even those NBA scouts who like his long-term potential — “if you’re a 6-9 athlete who can run and defend and hit the open 20-footer, you definitely have a chance” — said they recommended another year in college for Powell.

Interestingly, the same website (nbadraft.net) that listed Powell as a late first-round pick at the time of his decision to apply for the draft later downgraded him to the middle of the second round. If that move proves prophetic, it would be very bad news for Powell.

Under the NBA’s rookie salary scale, first-round draft picks receive guaranteed three-year contracts with team options for two additional seasons. This year, the last pick of the first round will receive more than $2.2 million over the first three years of the deal. The first pick of the second round has no such assurances, although in rare cases second-rounders have negotiated guaranteed deals. If a typical second-rounder has a bad training camp and gets cut before his rookie season, he’s left with no money, no degree and no remaining college eligibility.

Here’s another frightening fact, especially if Powell stays in the draft but falls out of the first round. Of the 48 former ACC players in the NBA during the 2002-03 season, 39 were first-round draft picks, eight were second-rounders and only one (former UNC center Scott Williams) was a free agent. Duke guard William Avery is out of the NBA just four years after turning pro as a sophomore in 1999, but as a first-round pick he had long-term financial security from the moment he signed his first contract.

“These kids all want to think that none of this other stuff matters, that if they’re good enough it will all work out in the end,” the NBA source said. “For some people, everything works out OK no matter where they’re drafted. For most people, though, it’s a very long and difficult road if you’re not a first-round pick. That first round offers security, and it’s definitely worth waiting if another year of seasoning would put you in that (first-round) position instead of coming out on a hope and a prayer.”

Although early entries have until June 19 to pull their names out of the June 26 draft, sources close to Powell said in early June that he was almost certain to remain in the draft, barring a disastrous experience at the June 3-7 combine in Chicago. There, prospects are permitted and encouraged to get first-hand feedback from NBA scouts and general managers, in a system designed to limit the impact of the inevitably optimistic input from unregulated street agents and other potentially unscrupulous advisors.

Some underclassmen turn pro because of extreme family circumstances, academic problems or immediate financial needs. But there apparently are no such problems with Powell, a very good student who arrived at N.C. State as a skinny, underdeveloped post player who had never been in a weight room in his life. Now, he’s bulked up and much better than when he first landed in Raleigh, and he’s accomplished in the classroom as well.

It all adds up to a very curious situation. Of the last 21 ACC players who turned pro with eligibility remaining, 14 were first-team all-conference selections and five were second-team picks. (The exceptions: Duke freshman Corey Maggette and Georgia Tech sophomore Dion Glover, both in 1999.) Despite his strong finish, Powell didn’t even make the league’s third team last season. Stay tuned.

Source

[Misfit Mav]

That was interesting, thanks for posting. That article sure had a good read on the situation. I hope for his sake and ours that the last year in the NBDL has provided the seasoning he lacked coming out of school and that he can contribute to the Mavs.

[V]

And before you flame the agents for convincing Powell to go pro you have to consider the situation of Darius Rice...

Rice scored 24 points in the 2000 McDonald's All American game and many felt, at the very least he had a good shot to be a late first rounder coming out of high school. Rice's body and skills never really developed and by the time he was a junior in college, scouts began to wonder about his foot speed, plus ability to get by players and defend on the perimeter. He still may have had a shot to get into the first round as a junior in college after having his best season. But instead chose to return for his senior year. After his senior year, his attitude and aggressiveness became question marks. His numbers decreased from his junior to senior years, and after struggling in post season draft camps, he went undrafted in 2004 and was unable to stick with an NBA team in training camp. Last season Rice played for the Florida Flame in the NBDL.



Today Rice and Powell are fighting each other for time on the Mavs Vegas summer league team...

[Misfit Mav]

Originally posted by: V
And before you flame the agents for convincing Powell to go pro you have to consider the situation of Darius Rice...

Rice scored 24 points in the 2000 McDonald's All American game and many felt, at the very least he had a good shot to be a late first rounder coming out of high school. Rice's body and skills never really developed and by the time he was a junior in college, scouts began to wonder about his foot speed, plus ability to get by players and defend on the perimeter. He still may have had a shot to get into the first round as a junior in college after having his best season. But instead chose to return for his senior year. After his senior year, his attitude and aggressiveness became question marks. His numbers decreased from his junior to senior years, and after struggling in post season draft camps, he went undrafted in 2004 and was unable to stick with an NBA team in training camp. Last season Rice played for the Florida Flame in the NBDL.



Today Rice and Powell are fighting each other for time on the Mavs Vegas summer league team...

Yeah, I agree, the draft can be a total crap shoot. Also, I think four-year college players have a certain stigma, since teams ask, why didn't they come out before if they are NBA-quality players?

I think part of the reasoning about staying in school is that if they aren't drafted, at least they have a degree and can make a living some other way. If they're near-NBA quality however, the most money might be in playing for a pro-team in Europe, which certainly doesn't require a degree.

[V]

It's the irony of the situation that gets me. One enters too early, one enters too late, and they're both scrapping in a summer league gym trying to make it. Maybe the talent is there, maybe it's not. The fact is, either one of these guys could have been a number one pick if they had better timing. It's no wonder there are so many busts ...





What if Devin Harris entered at just the right time?

[grndmstr_c]

I'm very interested to see what ends up happening with Powell. If he can keep playing the way he's been playing (27 mpg, 13.7 points, 11.3 rebounds, 68.8% true shooting) he almost has to get a training camp invite. Of course, can't be sure how he's defending (you'd like the block and steal numbers to be a bit higher), but the team's been putting up solid defensive numbers and Powell is the minutes leader in the frontcourt.

[HexNBA]

MAVERICKS NOTES

Breakout player three years in the making

By ART GARCIA

Star-Telegram Staff Writer

LAS VEGAS - Josh Powell has been through this drill before.

For the second time in three summers, the former North Carolina State power forward is auditioning for an NBA gig with the Mavericks.

Powell, 21, has easily been the Mavs' standout through three games of the Reebok Vegas Summer League, stealing some of the spotlight from the team's young NBA veterans.

But whether he's suiting up with Marquis Daniels, Devin Harris and Co. beyond July, remains to be seen. What is clear is the Mavs are looking for athletic help in the frontcourt behind Dirk Nowitzki, and Powell (6-foot-9, 225 pounds) at least fits that bill.

"Do I think there is something there? Absolutely," Mavs assistant Joe Prunty said Monday. "Do I know if he's going to make it and be able to contribute? We'll see."

Powell continued a string of consistent performances with a solid showing Monday afternoon as the Mavs scrimmaged Chicago at the Tarkanian Basketball Academy. On a team with two 7-footers already on the Mavs roster -- DJ Mbenga and Pavel Podkolzin -- it's Powell who's averaging 11.3 rebounds in summer league. No one else is averaging more than five boards.

"I play with my heart," said Powell, who went undrafted when he entered the 2003 NBA Draft after his sophomore season. "I try to outplay people. I don't try to do anything special. I just try to outwork them, especially when it comes to rebounding. My job is to grind, rebound, play defense and play hard."

Powell is most at home fighting for position in the paint.

When he grabs an offensive board, he has shown the strength to dunk on taller defenders. He's averaging 13.7 points -- second only to Daniels.

"There's potential for sure," Prunty said, "but you can never judge wholly in five days. You just don't know what all is there."

Powell played most of the last two seasons in Italy.

"I'm a little older, more mature and I just know what to expect," said Powell, comparing this go-around with the Mavs to the 2003 stint. "I know what my role is as a player."

Tonight figures to be an important measuring stick for Powell against an established NBA power forward. The Mavs face Orlando, led by Dwight Howard, who averaged a double-double as a rookie last season.

[JD45]

I like what Powell says. He seems focused on doing the dirty work. And he is producing. If he could become the next Bo Outlaw, the Mavs would have another summer league success.

Rice on the other hand is once again not delivering on his potential. He is a shooter that isn't making shots.

[jacktruth]

The fact is, either one of these guys could have been a number one pick if they had better timing. It's no wonder there are so many busts ...

That's a bold statement. If a player has talent, he will be found. Do you think Kobe or Wade or whoever would not have made it in the pros if they waited a year, or came out earlier. I think there is a whole lot more to it than timing.

It could be that the talent really isn't there. Josh Powell has been out of college for 2 years and played pro ball in Italy last year, and he is improving. Maybe he would have been drafted, but I doubt he would be a better player. Could it be that he really wasn't NBA ready? It's good to see him improve over last year's summer league performance, but the reality is that he improved his SUMMMER LEAGUE performance. After 3 years, I would hope he would outshine other summer league players. They are all holding on to a hair thin dream of sitting at the end of an NBA bench someday.

No offense, but we need a dose of reality about summer league performances.

[SlimBig]

Originally posted by: jacktruth

No offense, but we need a dose of reality about summer league performances.

True, but I think Powell has been doing this for two straight summers. I thought he showed the same promise as Quis did last summer, probably more so.

Unfortunately, Nellie was coach and that type of player doesn't appeal to him. You know the kind, the hardworking, atheletic, defensive rebounder. If he would have had a 3pt stroke and been from the Czech Republic, he'd be Dirk's backup.

Peace

[EricaLubarsky]

Derek Hood also performed admirably in preseason and summer league play, but he's a long ways away from making the team.

[V2M]

I haven't seen him play but his stats and reviews are great and he reminds me of Udonis Haslem. A 21 yr old, 6' 9", athletic 4 who can defend, rebound and score inside is just what the doctor ordered. He may be good enough to get some minutes this year. If not, send him to NBDL. If we don't resign KVH next year, he could be Dirk's backup for many years to come.

[V]

Originally posted by: jacktruth

That's a bold statement. If a player has talent, he will be found. Do you think Kobe or Wade or whoever would not have made it in the pros if they waited a year, or came out earlier. I think there is a whole lot more to it than timing.

I agree, if the talent is there ... My point was about the busts i.e. the guys who enter the draft "at the right time" and who appear to have the talent, but maybe it's not really there. If Rice entered the draft after HS then he'd likely be wasting away at the end of some unlucky team's bench during the season while earning a million dollar guaranteed contract and sipping Mai Thai's in Tahiti in the offseason. Instead he's in a sweaty Vegas gym. Poetic.

[/quote]It could be that the talent really isn't there.[/quote]

This is why I brought up Devin Harris.

[grndmstr_c]

Just FYI, Avery was on 103.3 just a bit ago (didn't hear it, saw the recap on LMF), and apprently said that Powell had a real chance to make the regular season roster (JD's word choice).

Also indicated that bringing back DA as the third point guard was still an option, and that he's not sure if DJ/Pavel are ready to take over backup center duties yet.