Official: 2008 NCAA Football Thread - Page 3 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

antoinewalker · 10-20-2008, 02:23 AM

lol @ espn comparing the big xii to the wac...

DirkFTW · 10-20-2008, 11:47 AM

I wonder if the absolute drubbings OU has taken the last few years has impacted the national perception of the Big XII...

Lost 2004 Sugar Bowl (National Championship) LSU 21-14
Lost 2005 Orange Bowl (National Championship) USC 55-19
Lost 2007 Fiesta Bowl Boise State 43-42
Lost 2008 Fiesta Bowl WVU 42-28

Those are very high profile losses.

Murphy3 · 10-20-2008, 12:06 PM

Yeah, but you've had some pretty high profile wins by UT during that time as well..

LonghornDub · 10-20-2008, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirkFTW

I wonder if the absolute drubbings OU has taken the last few years has impacted the national perception of the Big XII...

Lost 2004 Sugar Bowl (National Championship) LSU 21-14
Lost 2005 Orange Bowl (National Championship) USC 55-19
Lost 2007 Fiesta Bowl Boise State 43-42
Lost 2008 Fiesta Bowl WVU 42-28

Those are very high profile losses.

I think those have just affected the perception of OU. The Big XII is enjoying its best reputation in a decade this year. The only conference that may (big may) be as good is the SEC.

nikeball · 10-22-2008, 11:39 PM

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3658632

Texas QB McCoy reportedly will return for senior season

Texas might be able to announce "Heisman Trophy winner Colt McCoy" next season.

The front-runner for the award told the Sporting News on Wednesday that he will return for his senior season.

"I'm going to play here for four years," McCoy said, according to the Web site. "I've been blessed to be able to play here. Not very many people get to [start] here for four years, so what an opportunity. And if the NFL is there for me, then I hope that I'll get to keep playing, because I love to play this game. Hopefully, it will work out."

McCoy completed a team-record 90.6 percent of his passes for 337 yards and two touchdowns on Saturday as the No. 1 Longhorns beat then No. 11 Missouri 56-31.

This season, McCoy has thrown for 1,894 yards and 19 touchdowns, with only three interceptions, for 7-0 Texas.

Despite wanting to stay at Texas all four years, McCoy feels he is on pace for an NFL career and sees himself in the mold of a pretty good signal-caller.

"I play a lot like Tony Romo," McCoy said, according to the Sporting News. "Maybe not as risky now, but he's a playmaker. He can make some yards with his feet, but he's also right on the money. He's accurate and he's smart with the ball."

----

I think this should put us in top 3 of rankings for next year. We will be returning the Heisman favorite and many starters. The only starters off the top of my head that are gone are...

RAK - huge loss but with maturation of secondary we should be fine. (but losing Roy Miller could suck too)
Bobino - I always felt he was way too slow...from last year I wanted Sergio, Norton, Muckleroy to start.
Palmer - losing 1 player in secondary is replaceable.
Quan - hopefully Collins / Malcom steps up by then. Shipley is petitioning for another year and I think he will get it.
Dockery - Only O lineman departing.

and gosh Colt...please don't say that Tony is smart...as of now he is forcing way too many balls.

Flacolaco · 10-23-2008, 12:11 AM

They play football in college?

mary · 10-25-2008, 05:41 PM

I'm no football wiz, but I can do basic math.

Up by 4, and you don't kick the field goal?

The announcers said it was smart, so what the hell do I know.

Edit: Interception...woot!

BGMaverick9 · 10-25-2008, 07:29 PM

I'm still holding steady with my thought my Red Raiders can do it next Saturday Night in primetime. That crowd is going to be jacked up. I thought this could've been a letdown for them today...doesn't look like that happened.

Murphy3 · 10-25-2008, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mary

I'm no football wiz, but I can do basic math.

Up by 4, and you don't kick the field goal?

The announcers said it was smart, so what the hell do I know.

Edit: Interception...woot!

Here's the thinking Mary.. UT believed that they had a better chance of having a FG blocked and returned for a TD than having OSU drive the length of the field and score a TD with only a half minute to play with no timeouts.

What's the right answer? Well, I don't know what the odds are for a team to drive 99 yards in half a minute with no timeouts. I don't know that the scenario comes up very often. I also don't know what the percentage of FG's from that close getting blocked and returned for TD's is...

Another thing is this. They might have also worried a bit about OSU returning a kick off for a TD if they were to kick the FG and make it. Now, that would be a secondary issue and not something that should be at the forefront of the thought process.

But basically, I don't know which answer was the right one. The odds are so miniscule either way you slice it for OSU.. drive 99.5 yards with 30 seconds and no TO's down by 4 if UT doesn't score the TD.. or, score after the kickoff if UT does kick the FG.

UT scoring from half a yard out in that situation has probably got to be about a 70-85% proposition... So, I can't fault them for what they did at all. OSU driving down the field with 30 seconds left (and no TO's) after stopping UT can't be more than like a 1%-2% chance at best... so the odds were enormously stacked against them... You're probably talking about percentage chances WAY less than 1% for OSU.

I suppose you have to factor in the chances that McCoy throws an interception or fumbles the ball in that situation on 4th down. But, with as smart as he is and as talented as he is AND with the orders to just throw the ball away if nothing is there.. those odds are rather miniscule as well. His average pass probably only has about a 1 in 60 chance of being intercepted on a normal play. But in that situation, I'd probably have to say that the odds of him throwing an interception are closer to 1 in 200 or so.

And yeah, of course.. like with most stats, I'm making up the majority of them on the fly. But, I think they at least give you an indication at how unlikley it was that something would go wrong for UT when deciding to go for it. Honestly, just about the worse case scenario for them was for OSU to somehow stop UT on the 4th down play (which they hadn't really stopped UT all day), and for them to drive far enough to get in a situation to where they could throw a hail Mary into the end zone.. The odds of that even happening were heavily stacked against OSU. They didn't get into a situation to where they could do so, but they almost did.. came about 4-5 yards short.

Burn this City · 10-25-2008, 10:38 PM

Barring some sort of hiccup, it looks like Penn St is set to play in the BCS title game...

Murphy3 · 10-25-2008, 10:42 PM

Yep, I was about to post the same thing. And that's a good thing for whoever they play... I'd much rather face Penn State than a one loss team out of the SEC (if a Big12 team can stay undefeated).

I suppose there's still a chance that a 1 loss Big12 or SEC team could pass PSU especially of Ohio State loses again...but, I cannot imagine that the chances are likely that they'll be passed.

nikeball · 10-26-2008, 12:27 AM

VERY nice explanation murphy. That is exactly what I told my friend. There are too many unknown variables if you kick the FG. Also I am certain if they scored a touchdown and were down 1 (after we kicked the FG) they would have gone for 2 and gotten it. You are on the road against #1 team in the country...you go for the win.

Good thing it did not come to that.

Also...I think we're very drained..at least emotionally if not physically. Playing 3 crazy good teams in a row is very tough. We looked tired today. Oh well. GO HORNS GOOD WIN!

LonghornDub · 10-26-2008, 01:03 AM

Murph is dead on here. Mack cited the risk of a blocked FG as the reason they went for it there.

Also, the strength of OSU's kickoff return team played a large role in that decision, regardless of whether Mack admitted it. The pooch kicks showed how scared we were of those two guys.

Murphy3 · 10-26-2008, 11:37 AM

What was really kinda funny was the pooch kick that only made it to the 20 but was still fielded by OSU's return man.. talk about a total backfire of an idea there.

Murphy3 · 10-26-2008, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I don't think you really addressed my point. You made a comment that "every team in the big 12 would need to lose 2 games, or possibly three" for USC to make it into the title game. That's not true at all. If Texas goes undefeated, OU loses one more, and Tech/OSU both lose 1, USC will very likely end up ahead of all of them, and could very well end up as the BCS #2, depending on how things shake out with PSU/Bama. USC with 1 loss will end up ranked ahead of Ohio State with 1 loss, Bama with 1 loss, LSU with 1 loss, etc. You point to their terrible strength of schedule, but you're not considering the immensely favorable treatment they get from the human voters.

I don't like it, but that's just the way it is. USC's roster is so loaded with 5 star recruits that sometimes what they actually do on the field gets dwarfed by these crazy perceptions of how good they are on paper.

Do you want to re-think your opinion? Oklahoma State dropped only to #9 after their loss (in the AP). USC is only 2 spots ahead at the seventh spot. If Oklahoma State beats Tech and also OU, they will probably pass USC even if USC doesn't lose another game. (6 and 10 in the USA poll).

In the BCS, they're 5 (USC) and 6 (OSU) in the BCS.

Burn this City · 10-26-2008, 05:20 PM

^I'm of the belief that a 1 loss USC team will always be perceived as the best 1 loss team in the country, just as an undefeated USC team is generally considered the best team in the country. USC is the new Notre Dame as far as polling goes.

Murphy3 · 10-26-2008, 10:38 PM

Well, the polling barely favors a 1 loss USC over a one loss Oklahoma State. And if OSU were to beat Oklahoma and Tech, you'd see the polls take an even bigger shift towards OSU.

Mix in a poll from time to time.

LonghornDub · 10-26-2008, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Do you want to re-think your opinion? Oklahoma State dropped only to #9 after their loss (in the AP). USC is only 2 spots ahead at the seventh spot. If Oklahoma State beats Tech and also OU, they will probably pass USC even if USC doesn't lose another game. (6 and 10 in the USA poll).

In the BCS, they're 5 (USC) and 6 (OSU) in the BCS.

USC barely beat a crappy Arizona team. I'm pretty sure I made my statement with the caveat that they had to win the rest of their games "comfortably," and not just win. They didn't do that, and so OSU gained on them after having what was as close to a win as you can get without actually winning. Hell, USC actually fell a slot in the AP poll this week because they looked so bad.

Your argument is premised on their respective schedules, which I understand, but it's just too logical for the illogical voters. If USC "looks the part" in the rest of their games, OSU won't jump them in any human poll unless they just absolutely blow some great team like OU out of the water. Now, as I mentioned, it is possible that OSU ends up right behind USC in the polls, and then the computer advantage is enough to put them ahead in the BCS, but that's the only way.

Don't ever underestimate the USC hype. It's been there since Carroll's 2nd year, and it won't go away until he leaves. It's completely unfair, because OSU as they played yesterday would beat USC by a good 20+ points. But it is reality.

Burn this City · 10-26-2008, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Well, the polling barely favors a 1 loss USC over a one loss Oklahoma State. And if OSU were to beat Oklahoma and Tech, you'd see the polls take an even bigger shift towards OSU.

Mix in a poll from time to time.

USC is 4 spots ahead in the USA Today poll and the BCS rankings. I wouldn't consider that being "barely" ahead. They're likely going to finish the season blowing out Notre Dame on national tv and then blowing out UCLA, again on national tv, on the final day of the season. And if that does indeed happen, I have a hard time believing all that media attention along with the love affair everyone seems to have with Pete Carroll, would allow another 1 loss team to jump them in the human polls.

Then ESPN will probably dedicate another month to debating whether this USC team is the greatest college football team of all time - once again proving USC is the new Notre Dame.

mary · 10-27-2008, 01:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Here's the thinking Mary.. UT believed that they had a better chance of having a FG blocked and returned for a TD than having OSU drive the length of the field and score a TD with only a half minute to play with no timeouts.

What's the right answer? Well, I don't know what the odds are for a team to drive 99 yards in half a minute with no timeouts. I don't know that the scenario comes up very often. I also don't know what the percentage of FG's from that close getting blocked and returned for TD's is...

Another thing is this. They might have also worried a bit about OSU returning a kick off for a TD if they were to kick the FG and make it. Now, that would be a secondary issue and not something that should be at the forefront of the thought process.

But basically, I don't know which answer was the right one. The odds are so miniscule either way you slice it for OSU.. drive 99.5 yards with 30 seconds and no TO's down by 4 if UT doesn't score the TD.. or, score after the kickoff if UT does kick the FG.

UT scoring from half a yard out in that situation has probably got to be about a 70-85% proposition... So, I can't fault them for what they did at all. OSU driving down the field with 30 seconds left (and no TO's) after stopping UT can't be more than like a 1%-2% chance at best... so the odds were enormously stacked against them... You're probably talking about percentage chances WAY less than 1% for OSU.

I suppose you have to factor in the chances that McCoy throws an interception or fumbles the ball in that situation on 4th down. But, with as smart as he is and as talented as he is AND with the orders to just throw the ball away if nothing is there.. those odds are rather miniscule as well. His average pass probably only has about a 1 in 60 chance of being intercepted on a normal play. But in that situation, I'd probably have to say that the odds of him throwing an interception are closer to 1 in 200 or so.

And yeah, of course.. like with most stats, I'm making up the majority of them on the fly. But, I think they at least give you an indication at how unlikley it was that something would go wrong for UT when deciding to go for it. Honestly, just about the worse case scenario for them was for OSU to somehow stop UT on the 4th down play (which they hadn't really stopped UT all day), and for them to drive far enough to get in a situation to where they could throw a hail Mary into the end zone.. The odds of that even happening were heavily stacked against OSU. They didn't get into a situation to where they could do so, but they almost did.. came about 4-5 yards short.

Thanks Murph, that was a great explanation.

Quote:

Well, I don't know what the odds are for a team to drive 99 yards in half a minute with no timeouts. I don't know that the scenario comes up very often. I also don't know what the percentage of FG's from that close getting blocked and returned for TD's is...

Given that the two events were both unlikely, I didn't think that the chances of a blocked FG were so great that it was worth sacrificing an almost certain 3 points, and putting the team ahead by a full score. This, of course, was MB's explanation in his post-game interview.

Quote:

They might have also worried a bit about OSU returning a kick off for a TD if they were to kick the FG and make it. Now, that would be a secondary issue and not something that should be at the forefront of the thought process.

A concern over kick-off coverage makes more sense to me than being worried about blocked FG's being returned for touchdowns (which I figured was almost as unlikely as McCoy throwing an interception and it being run back for a touchdown).

Murphy3 · 10-27-2008, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Burn this City

USC is 4 spots ahead in the USA Today poll and the BCS rankings. I wouldn't consider that being "barely" ahead. They're likely going to finish the season blowing out Notre Dame on national tv and then blowing out UCLA, again on national tv, on the final day of the season. And if that does indeed happen, I have a hard time believing all that media attention along with the love affair everyone seems to have with Pete Carroll, would allow another 1 loss team to jump them in the human polls.

Then ESPN will probably dedicate another month to debating whether this USC team is the greatest college football team of all time - once again proving USC is the new Notre Dame.

It's my fault on this one. Yahoo had updated every poll exept the BCS poll. So, when I wrote my post, I was using the current week on two polls but the BCS poll from last week.

BUT, with that being said, I still maintain what I've said all along. OSU would have to beat Tech and Oklahoma to make it to the Big12 Championship and then have to beat Missouri (in all likeliness). I completely believe that this would vault them over USC.

Murphy3 · 10-27-2008, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mary

Thanks Murph, that was a great explanation.

Given that the two events were both unlikely, I didn't think that the chances of a blocked FG were so great that it was worth sacrificing an almost certain 3 points, and putting the team ahead by a full score. This, of course, was MB's explanation in his post-game interview.

A concern over kick-off coverage makes more sense to me than being worried about blocked FG's being returned for touchdowns (which I figured was almost as unlikely as McCoy throwing an interception and it being run back for a touchdown).

But, with how bad UT's kickoff coverage had been, I think that they had a better shot of losing the game by scoring and then kicking off than by going for it on 4th and a yard. However, I really don't think that either decision would have been a bad one.

LonghornDub · 10-27-2008, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

I completely believe that this would vault them over USC.

That's because you're a more reasonable voter than the actual voters.

Murphy3 · 10-27-2008, 06:39 PM

No, it's because OSU would have to beat OU, Tech, and then Missouri again. OU's already ahead of USC. I completely believe that if OSU beats OU, Tech, and Missouri, they'd be ahead of USC.. even a USC that gets more than the benefit of the doubt from pollsters.

LonghornDub · 10-27-2008, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

No, it's because OSU would have to beat OU, Tech, and then Missouri again. OU's already ahead of USC. I completely believe that if OSU beats OU, Tech, and Missouri, they'd be ahead of USC.. even a USC that gets more than the benefit of the doubt from pollsters.

So, my argument is that you are more logical and reasonable than the voters, and your rebuttal is a post that essentially lays out a step-by-step, logical analysis as to why OSU would be ahead of USC?

You're making my argument for me. This is exactly the kind of reasoned analysis that most voters don't bother to engage in.

Murphy3 · 10-27-2008, 08:58 PM

No, I'm not. Obviously, I cannot prove that I'm right unless OSU were to beat OU and Tech. But, that's not likely to happen.

Regardless, I'm right.

LonghornDub · 10-28-2008, 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Regardless, I'm right.

That sure is persuasive. You should have just said that earlier and we could have avoided this whole discussion.

Murphy3 · 10-28-2008, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

That sure is persuasive. You should have just said that earlier and we could have avoided this whole discussion.

Good point.

Obviously, I wasn't being serious.

LonghornDub · 10-28-2008, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Good point.

Obviously, I wasn't being serious.

Neither was I.

I'm kinda hoping OSU wins out at this point (and I actually think they do have a decent chance to do so) to see how it all plays out.

nikeball · 11-02-2008, 09:10 PM

new BCS standings are out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/BCSStandings

Tech #2 overall
Texas #4 overall.

gotta love the computers.

We just gotta hold off FLA and hopefully OU takes care of business and win the Big 12. That would put us in good position to make a run at the MNC.

MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs · 11-02-2008, 09:15 PM

Texas is out as National Championship contenders, period. They aren't going to get the nod over Penn State, USC, Alabama, Florida etc...

I doubt it holds up anyway but could you imagine an Alabama vs Texas Tech National Championship game? The Northeast would just love that lol. In fact those two teams played in the Cotton Bowl a few years ago and Alabama won by a field goal 13-10.

LonghornDub · 11-02-2008, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs

Texas is out as National Championship contenders, period. They aren't going to get the nod over Penn State, USC, Alabama, Florida etc...

Not true at all. It's incredibly foolish to think that a team that is currently #4 (with a month to go) doesn't have a shot of ending up in the top 2. Did you watch college football at all last year? Ohio State went from #7 to #1 the very last week.

BGMaverick9 · 11-02-2008, 09:37 PM

The BCS got it right compared to the other polls today, mainly for the fact that they had OU ranked ahead of UT in polls, that's a joke.

Texas could still do something, I wouldn't count them out just yet. It'll take a lot of help on top of that, they'll really need a Penn State loss but it's hard to count on that. They're already ahead of Florida and USC. I don't think USC has enough left to overtake them if UT and USC win out. I think it's the same for Florida.

The top two control their fate and Tech has the harder route for survival. 'Bama just has this one tough game left on the road vs LSU and the rest they are expected to win easily...but you just never know.

Tech started their gauntlet and continue against OSU @ home and on the road in Norman. Things will get very interesting if they win this week but lose against OU. Things are ready to roll in November now.

MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs · 11-02-2008, 09:44 PM

Even as it is right now Alabama, Penn State Texas Tech one team would have to be left out.

BGMaverick9 · 11-02-2008, 10:38 PM

and it's as it should be right now, in that BCS order.
Bama, Tech, Penn State

nikeball · 11-03-2008, 12:39 AM

The national championship game should be a SEC v BIG12 team this year. The Big 10 and PAC 10 do not deserve to be up there. I think by the last game of the year..the polls will get it right...because the computers sure did q=).

MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs · 11-03-2008, 01:43 AM

I don't think Texas being #4 is unjustified neccessarily,they lost to the #6 team on the road at the very end of the game.

LonghornDub · 11-03-2008, 01:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavsWiLLHaVeRinGs

I don't think Texas being #4 is unjustified neccessarily,they lost to the #6 team on the road at the very end of the game.

#4 is quite fair. I could live with #5, even. The fact that Texas is #7 in the Coaches' poll, though, is an absolute travesty.

Murphy3 · 11-03-2008, 10:49 AM

I can see Penn State getting left out even if they're undefeated. One team from the SEC will make it. USC doesn't have much of a shot at this point in my opinion. I think it'll come down to a team from the SEC/Big 12 team/Penn State. I'd have to give the nod to Penn State only because I don't expect the BCS to get it right. I've seen them play a couple of times. They are not on par with what I've seen in the SEC or the Big 12.

If Tech loses to OU or OSU, I completely expect them to drop below Texas... But, I do think it would be better for UT if Tech loses to OSU but beats OU.

Murphy3 · 11-03-2008, 11:06 AM

I've been saying for weeks that USC has virtually no chance of getting into the national championship game. If you look at the standings right now, it's going to take massive chaos for them to even sniff it... They'll need two of the following:

They'll need Alabama to lose twice.
They'll need OSU to lose..
Tech to lose..
OU to lose..
Florida to lose
UT to lose.
Penn State to lose
There's a good chance they'll need Utah to lose.

Could most of that happen? Well, alot of it will happen. But, one team will probably make it out of the Big 12 south with just one loss to play Missouri in the Big12 championship game. I cannot see UT losing again, so they'll finish no lower than where they're at. USC won't leap frog them.

Tech will probably lose a game..but if they lose twice, that means that the winner of the OU and OSU game would only have one loss if they're able to take care of the rest of their business. If Tech loses just once, then they'd be ahead of USC. So, USC will probably be behind not 1 but 2 Big12 schools.

Penn State shouldn't lose until they get waxed in a bowl game. They do have to play Michigan State.. That's a possibility.

What would be ideal for UT would be for Alabama to lose to LSU (definitely possible) but for Alabama to beat Florida in the SEC championship game.. Personally, I think Florida will be in the National Championship based on the strength of the human polling. If Florida and UT win out and both win their conference, it'd be interesting to see which is picked to face Penn State if they don't leap past Penn State (which isn't likely).

What will the voters do if OU wins out? Will OU or UT be the higher ranked BCS team in the Big 12? I don't think a 1 loss Tech team ends up ahead of a 1 loss OU or UT team.