Historic Salary Cap Increase In 2016

[Underdog]

After a meeting this week failed to produce a compromise, the NBA is now preparing itself for the largest salary-cap jump in league history for the 2016-17 season.

NBA teams using internal data are projecting the salary cap to jump to between $88 million and $92 million per team, sources told ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12...crease-nba-set

Interesting how they mention LAL and NYK as potential destinations in the FA market (Durant! LeBron!), but no mention of the Mavs, who currently only have Parsons ($16m), Dirk ($8.7m), and Harris ($4.2m) under contract for that year -- with both Parsons and Dirk holding player options. Honestly, I could see Dirk declining in favor of a smaller contract that allows the team more flexibility for one last title run... And Parsons? Well, it's unlikely he outgrows his current contract, but he'll be a lot less "overpaid" under the new cap (lower end projected):

14-15: $14.7m/$63m = 23% of the cap
16-17: $16m/$88m = 18% of the cap

But the main reason I posted this in the Mavs section instead of the NBA section is because what we do this summer completely impacts what we can do the next summer... Do you overpay to keep Rondo and/or Ellis with the knowledge that if it doesn't work out, their contracts would be easier to move once the cap spikes? I mean, you're gonna need some talent on your roster if you wanna lure the big fish.

I'm sure the MBT will continue building this team with "win now" in mind, but what if that comes at the cost of sacrificing a genuine franchise player? Do we keep pushing for a suddenly-declining Dirk to get one more ring if it limits our chances of signing a talent like Kevin Durant? Is there a middle ground that doesn't sacrifice both "win now" and "franchise player" the same way Plan Powder did, or do tough choices need to be made?

[Underdog]

Here's another bit from the article that grabbed my attention...

• There may be some free agents this summer who only accept one-year contracts so they can retest the market in 2016, when it will be awash with available cash.

With that in mind, I could see Monta opting in on the last year of his contract with the hope of getting a significantly higher payday than he would this summer... Obviously he takes the risk of getting injured, but he also has another chance to nab an All-Star selection, which would increase his market value. At 29 years old, this is probably going to be his last big payday -- it wouldn't be the worst idea to try to maximize what he can get.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Here's another bit from the article that grabbed my attention...



With that in mind, I could see Monta opting in on the last year of his contract with the hope of getting a significantly higher payday than he would this summer... Obviously he takes the risk of getting injured, but he also has another chance to nab an All-Star selection, which would increase his market value. At 29 years old, this is probably going to be his last big payday -- it wouldn't be the worst idea to try to maximize what he can get.

I feel like Cuban could get real creative with this upcoming season knowing money is coming down the pipe the following season. It's going to be interesting.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

I feel like Cuban could get real creative with this upcoming season knowing money is coming down the pipe the following season. It's going to be interesting.

Yessir -- the first thing that springs to mind is backloading contracts so we have as much money as possible for the 2016 FA market.

[Twenty4sevenn]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Yessir -- the first thing that springs to mind is backloading contracts so we have as much money as possible for the 2016 FA market.

The question is, does knowing the big cap bump next year make it more likely that Monta opts in to his final year so he can hit the market in 2016 when teams have more money to spend?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Twenty4sevenn

The question is, does knowing the big cap bump next year make it more likely that Monta opts in to his final year so he can hit the market in 2016 when teams have more money to spend?

I posed the same question in post #2... Either Monta opts in so he can get a bigger payday in 2016 or we re-up him this summer and backload his contract so we have space for a max player in 2016.

[jthig32]

You can't backload contract. Max raises prevent that.

[Twenty4sevenn]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I posed the same question in post #2... Either Monta opts in so he can get a bigger payday in 2016 or we re-up him this summer and backload his contract so we have space for a max player in 2016.

Sorry. Apparently I can't read.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by jthig32

You can't backload contract. Max raises prevent that.

Ah, that's right... Well, it doesn't change the main point that Ellis can opt in this summer and get a much bigger payday in 2016.

[MavzMan]

Originally Posted by jthig32

You can't backload contract. Max raises prevent that.

Actually i was flipping that around. For example, give Monta an average of $12 mill per season over 5 years but it's a declining contract. So we overpay him now while we retain everyone and try to keep a glimmer of hope for Dirk, but when the cap goes higher we have that much more to spend on FAs.

Didn't Houston do this with Lin and Asik? I get that players want max money and all, but it looks like that would benefit all involved both now and in two years.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by MavzMan

Actually i was flipping that around. For example, give Monta an average of $12 mill per season over 5 years but it's a declining contract. So we overpay him now while we retain everyone and try to keep a glimmer of hope for Dirk, but when the cap goes higher we have that much more to spend on FAs.

Didn't Houston do this with Lin and Asik? I get that players want max money and all, but it looks like that would benefit all involved both now and in two years.

I don't really think the declining option makes a ton of sense. The tight fit is going to be next season (assuming they operate under the cap at all, which is still very much in question).

[rimrocker]

I'm wondering what the market will be for Ellis if he opts out.
He's been pretty good for us but has shown inconsistency, is undersized, and isn't an all-star.

What contending team would be a good fit for him other than us and would pay him much more than what he is making now?
I'm sure there are some good fits for him but can't really think of any.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by rimrocker

I'm wondering what the market will be for Ellis if he opts out.
He's been pretty good for us but has shown inconsistency, is undersized, and isn't an all-star.

What contending team would be a good fit for him other than us and would pay him much more than what he is making now?
I'm sure there are some good fits for him but can't really think of any.

He might get a little more than he currently gets but it won't be much more.

Player a 19.2/6.0/3.9/2.1/0.4 3.1 topg on 17.5 shots per game.
Player b 19.2/4.3/2.4/2.0/0.3 2.4 topg on 17.1 shots per game.

Player a is monta in his last year in Milwaukee. Player b is monta this year. They are remarkably similar. Monta obviously plays less minutes now but The biggest differences are monta has gotten marginally better from the field and from 3 but it's come at the expense of becoming the worst rebounder in the nba(I get that some other players hurt their team rebounding much more ie a bad rebounding center or pf is a much bigger deal than a bad rebounding 2) and getting to the line less. There are certainly reasons to like monta more now, but not enough to give him a contract that dwarfs what was originally laughed at as a bad contract.

[Underdog]

I really can't see Ellis opting out this summer with a cap spike around the corner in 2016... He's primed for a much bigger payday, especially if he stays with the Mavs (5th year, Cuban's willingness to go over the cap).

[sefant77]

Lucky ass Lakers and Knicks. Im allready expecting new superteams forming...

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Lucky ass Lakers and Knicks. Im allready expecting new superteams forming...

I think the Mavs proved with Deron Williams and Dwight Howard that you need more than just cap space to lure top-tier free agents... I could see the Knicks having some appeal with Melo and Jackson, but the Lakers have nothing going for them other than being in LA.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I really can't see Ellis opting out this summer with a cap spike around the corner in 2016... He's primed for a much bigger payday, especially if he stays with the Mavs (5th year, Cuban's willingness to go over the cap).

But if he opts in he has to make up the 7m difference from next season too.

Assuming the options are to sign the 60m/4y this summer (the maximum offer the Mavs can give him and with a player option after the 3rd year to be FA again) or opt in and sign in 2016 a 100/5 deal with the Mavs.

15/15/15...then taking the player option
8/20/20...

Its not that much of a difference in the first three years. And taking the 8m player option in the torn achilles season (Kobe, Jennings, Matthews) is gambling on staying healthy too

[Underdog]

Holy crap...

League officials expect the salary cap to increase from its current $63.1 million figure to $67.1 million next season, $89 million in 2016-17 and $108 million in 2017-18.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12...2017-18-season

[Melonhead]

And $127 million in 2017-18, sources said...

On mobile so can't quote but in that article it says 108 million and two paragraphs down it changes 127million in 2017-18.

[Kante]

Ugh...

[Vinsanity]

If this is true, sign Rondo/Monta/Tyson all to max deals this summer.

[spreedom]

Originally Posted by Vinsanity

If this is true, sign Rondo/Monta/Tyson all to max deals this summer.

Well you probably don't mean true max deals, because those provide salary based as a percentage of the overall cap number. But if you mean the Mavs should offer them all like $14-16M per season for the next three or four seasons, I understand what you're going for.

[Vinsanity]

Originally Posted by spreedom

Well you probably don't mean true max deals, because those provide salary based as a percentage of the overall cap number. But if you mean the Mavs should offer them all like $14-16M per season for the next three or four seasons, I understand what you're going for.

Yup $15mill/year for each of them sounds good to me.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Vinsanity

If this is true, sign Rondo/Monta/Tyson all to max deals this summer.

Yeah, I'd go a shade over max value, not max contract -- but cap space certainly isn't a reason to hesitate when it comes to re-signing these guys.

[sefant77]

Keep this summer everyone you are able to keep...going after an FA in 2016 or 2017 is like playing lottery...every damn team gonna have cap space.

Wont be surprised to have 3-4 super teams.

[Underdog]

@WojYahooNBA: The NBA salary cap has risen to $70M for the 2015-'16 season, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

@WojYahooNBA: The NBA's team tax level will be $84.7M, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

@HowardBeck: More numbers from NBA memo:
Tax line: $84.74 mil
MLE: $5.464 mil
Taxpayer ML: $3.376 mil
Room ML: $2.814 mi

[EastTxMFFL]

Hell it doesn't even matter for Dallas. We won't land any franchise changing players. The future is looking horrible with or without cap room.

[EricaLubarsky]

We HAVE to shoot for a top 7 pick now. I'd be optimistic, but we have to give away our pick if it falls in the 8-30 range because of another spineless prick with a "back injury"