2018 NBA Draft

[j0Shi]

On the other hand: There's pretty much only one team to date that successfully build through a horrible tanking stretch, and that's the Sixers. And they even still have to proof it in the playoffs, have an injury prone star, another one that can't shoot, and a third that is injury-prone and can't shoot.

So that's like what? One semi-success story out of how many since tanking got super popular? I think it isn't the answer. It's probably as much of a problem however that big free agents only get attracted by 10-15% of the league right now. The new trend to form superteams didn't help there at all. So you have shitty odds to build through the draft, and even less of a chance to lure key free agents without an already strong roster. Good luck digging yourself out of a hole.

It's really annoying, but I'd prefer competitive teams over the shit that's going on this season all day. I had the most time in years to actually watch Mavs games during the night, but could hardly get myself to stay up. I'll be back when there's actual basketball to watch and root for other teams in the meantime.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Didn't Suns already clinch the worst record? So pre lotto they should be set no matter the outcome.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

On the other hand: There's pretty much only one team to date that successfully build through a horrible tanking stretch, and that's the Sixers. And they even still have to proof it in the playoffs, have an injury prone star, another one that can't shoot, and a third that is injury-prone and can't shoot.

So that's like what? One semi-success story out of how many since tanking got super popular? I think it isn't the answer. It's probably as much of a problem however that big free agents only get attracted by 10-15% of the league right now. The new trend to form superteams didn't help there at all. So you have shitty odds to build through the draft, and even less of a chance to lure key free agents without an already strong roster. Good luck digging yourself out of a hole.

It's really annoying, but I'd prefer competitive teams over the shit that's going on this season all day. I had the most time in years to actually watch Mavs games during the night, but could hardly get myself to stay up. I'll be back when there's actual basketball to watch and root for other teams in the meantime.

Not to get righteous on you, but given what you've said, and the lack of options the Mavs have I think either you're a true fan and you understand these things happen in cycles and stick with your squad, or you're not.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

I understand what Joshi is saying and of course nobody wants a bad team. I'm just not sure of the alternative to getting good again though. Mavs tried for 5+ years to lure big time free agents because they had cap space and failed. They didn't have a young core to build around...only aging Dirk. Players weren't interested in that.

So now with DSJ and a great pick this year they can have more success at FA in the coming summers. But it does, IMO, all start with having young superstar potential talent to get players to come here.

[Scoobay]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

I understand what Joshi is saying and of course nobody wants a bad team. I'm just not sure of the alternative to getting good again though. Mavs tried for 5+ years to lure big time free agents because they had cap space and failed. They didn't have a young core to build around...only aging Dirk. Players weren't interested in that.

So now with DSJ and a great pick this year they can have more success at FA in the coming summers. But it does, IMO, all start with having young superstar potential talent to get players to come here.

yes unfortunately it's just part of the life cycle of being a fan. inevitably most teams have to go through some down times before getting back up to the top and in particular with the NBA you have to have superstars. you can't win without 'em so it's difficult to go through the process of drafting and/or signing/luring them onto your team. Being bad and having a high draft pick just gives you the best odds of finding at least one of those guys. How fortunate we've been to have Dirk for 20 years and see his development.

[saclare]

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/sto...-player-europe

[j0Shi]

Originally Posted by tap2390

Not to get righteous on you, but given what you've said, and the lack of options the Mavs have I think either you're a true fan and you understand these things happen in cycles and stick with your squad, or you're not.

Oh I understand. But as a "true fan" I simply can't watch games and root for my team to lose. That's just weirdly off. I know we need Ls, but whenever I checked boxscores in the morning I was still more excited to see a win. Are you telling me you would go to the arena in your Mavs jersey and then celebrate bricks by Barnes and Dirk because cycles? Yeah...

This btw. is not a matter of being bad. But teams should at least try to be as good as they can be. The whole league system is just horrible.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Oh I understand. But as a "true fan" I simply can't watch games and root for my team to lose. That's just weirdly off. I know we need Ls, but whenever I checked boxscores in the morning I was still more excited to see a win. Are you telling me you would go to the arena in your Mavs jersey and then celebrate bricks by Barnes and Dirk because cycles? Yeah...

This btw. is not a matter of being bad. But teams should at least try to be as good as they can be. The whole league system is just horrible.

Very fair point, it sucks to be torn between wanting your guys do well and wanting to ensure they have the opportunity to take a talented player in the draft.

[BigDog63]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

On the other hand: There's pretty much only one team to date that successfully build through a horrible tanking stretch, and that's the Sixers. And they even still have to proof it in the playoffs, have an injury prone star, another one that can't shoot, and a third that is injury-prone and can't shoot.

It's hard to say whether what they did was 'successful', or merely the by product of sucking so long they had no where to go but up.

So you have shitty odds to build through the draft, and even less of a chance to lure key free agents without an already strong roster. Good luck digging yourself out of a hole.

One can definitely build through the draft (contrary to Cuban think). That's what Houston did, for example. The accumulated a bunch of assets, and eventually ended up with Harden. The basic premise of the draft is simply to keep getting better. If you do that better than other teams...you eventually succeed. Philly increased their odds by being so bad for so long, they almost had to get better.

It's really annoying, but I'd prefer competitive teams over the shit that's going on this season all day. I had the most time in years to actually watch Mavs games during the night, but could hardly get myself to stay up. I'll be back when there's actual basketball to watch and root for other teams in the meantime.

Ya, same here. I did go to a couple games, but I don't think I actually watched a single full game on TV this year. And I had been a pretty die hard follower. Not all the Mavs fault...everyone know who the finals were going to be, so...what's the point?

[Underdog]

LOL @ the Sixers being the only successful draft story... The Golden State Warriors built their dynasty through the draft, then solidified it through free agency because they were actually able to draw FAs after going the distance... OKC also built up a pretty badass team through the draft, but refused to pony-up to keep Harden and Durant because they're cheap AF... Boston built assets with draft picks, then flipped them for proven stars because picks are worth more than gold in this league.

If you want a franchise player, the only way to find one is through the draft.

[j0Shi]

True, forgot about OKC 2007-2009 because the team is no longer intact. Warriors are not a good example however since all their stars got picked outside the top 5 (#7, #11, Green was a 2nd rounder even). You don't tank to draft in that range.

And Celtics? They had three lottery picks since 2014: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Nice players, but certainly no superstars (yet). Here's how they got their current ones: Horford and Hayward because they're Boston and Irving because they completely lucked out with Isaiah Thomas, a player drafted 60th overall. Boston did not builds its current roster through the draft at all.

[BigDog63]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

True, forgot about OKC 2007-2009 because the team is no longer intact. Warriors are not a good example however since all their stars got picked outside the top 5 (#7, #11, Green was a 2nd rounder even). You don't tank to draft in that range.

Disagree. That is precisely why they are a great example. You don't have to tank to succeed in the draft.

[/quote]And Celtics? They had three lottery picks since 2014: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Nice players, but certainly no superstars (yet). Here's how they got their current ones: Horford and Hayward because they're Boston and Irving because they completely lucked out with Isaiah Thomas, a player drafted 60th overall. Boston did not builds its current roster through the draft at all.[/QUOTE]

Horford and Hayward not because they are Boston, but because they had a good young team, which you get by building through the draft. Thomas another example of how you don't need to tank to succeed in the draft. So, I disagree, they ARE an example of building through the draft. Like Houston, it is a combination of drafting, FA's, and trades. All of those depend on drafting well. Something Cuban never understood. Yes, the Mavs did do a good job of picking up good experienced talent cheap...but that's not how you build a team, its how you fill in holes. It was doomed to failure, IMHO, as they intentionally neglected the most important part. Why didn't DeAndre Jordan, and others, not come here? Because they didn't have a good nucleus to join. Why didn't Mavs have that? Because then intentionally neglected the draft. It was doomed to fail, and it did. FO needs to completely rethink its approach to drafting. Every pick matters, and acquiring more picks is a good thing, not a bad thing. Most of the Rocket's trade assets, that eventually landed them Harden, were second round picks..or just the picks themselves.

[tap2390]

I just want to say... get to work Donnie!! And wherever we pick don’t you dare f*** this up. Also Cuban, leave Donnie and Carlisle the f*** alone. Let the basketball guys make the basketball decision. I promise you can call whoever they decide to pick first.

[GermanStandard]

Using the NBA Lottery Formula this is what i got calculated:

Pick -> Draft Odd

1. -> 2,1 %
2. -> 12,7 %
3. -> 13,2 %
4. -> 10,8%
5. -> 29,2 %
6. -> 18,7 %
7. -> 3,2 %
8. -> 0,1 %

[BPo001]

Draft guide from The Ringer

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=...034.1504810662

[BPo001]

Orlando beats Washington giving them one more win than us. Awesome.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Orlando beats Washington giving them one more win than us. Awesome.

!!!

[Underdog]

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Underdog

ARE YOU F88KING KIDDING ME!!!!

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

ARE YOU F88KING KIDDING ME!!!!

At worst, we have a 98.8% chance of a top-6 pick, 42.6% chance of picking somewhere in the top-3... Thank you, Orlando.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Underdog

At worst, we have a 98.8% chance of a top-6 pick, 42.6% chance of picking somewhere in the top-3... Thank you, Orlando.

What makes this so exciting is you truly don't know who will pick who outside of Ayton.

Honestly though, this is exactly why it wasn't worth the energy to shit cows like a certain someone back in January. Mavs did it the right way by competing to give us close games and for the most part developing youth.

Considering how good DSJ has been lately, it has been a very good and terrible season.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

What makes this so exciting is you truly don't know who will pick who outside of Ayton.

I dunno, you’d think Ayton would be a no-brainer at #1 (he’s certainly my top choice), but I’m still seeing mocks with Doncic or Bagley going first... I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Ayton ended up going #3 or something crazy along those lines, and THAT’S what makes it exciting to me.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I dunno, you’d think Ayton would be a no-brainer at #1 (he’s certainly my top choice), but I’m still seeing mocks with Doncic or Bagley going first... I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Ayton ended up going #3 or something crazy along those lines, and THAT’S what makes it exciting to me.

Well even more exciting than that is the fact that the Mavs have a legit shot at the number 1 pick now. So we can just pick mother f'in Ayton without any luck or shenanigans of him falling.

[GermanStandard]

Here are the New Draft Odds after the Magic Win

1: 13,75
2: 14,15
3: 14,45
4: 16,25
5: 30,80
6: 10,00
7: 0,60

[SMC0007]

I don't see how it appears at all that they strategically tanked to where they are. They did what they could to win for as long as they could and then rolled over a bit too late. They could have had the #2 pick if not for a handful of boneheaded wins in the last 20(ish) games. Who knows, I'm hoping that it may not make a difference in the long run.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Out of curiosity, what do Orlando's percentages across picks look like?

[MavzMan]

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery:

5th place odds:
1 - 8.8%
2 - 9.7%
3 - 10.7%
4 - 0
5 - 26.1%
6 - 36%
7 - 8.4%
8 - .4%

[BigDog63]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I don't see how it appears at all that they strategically tanked to where they are. They did what they could to win for as long as they could and then rolled over a bit too late. They could have had the #2 pick if not for a handful of boneheaded wins in the last 20(ish) games. Who knows, I'm hoping that it may not make a difference in the long run.

No, they didn't. They pulled starters for many fourth quarters, and played younger players when they didn't need to. Mavs could easily have won another 10-15 games if they had wanted to. They didn't want to.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

They did what they could to win for as long as they could and then rolled over a bit too late.

You can't really prove this. The only time the Mavs actually tried to win a few was right after Cuban's dumb comments, but they quickly went back to tank.

And the close losses don't really hold much value either. I always go back to Cuban's most famous quote..."The difference between good and bad teams is that good teams win close games." So whether Rick intentionally lost close games or the Mavs were just bad...it's all moot.

A team can't go 0-82.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I don't see how it appears at all that they strategically tanked to where they are. They did what they could to win for as long as they could and then rolled over a bit too late. They could have had the #2 pick if not for a handful of boneheaded wins in the last 20(ish) games. Who knows, I'm hoping that it may not make a difference in the long run.

How is it possible to complain about where we are. 3rd worst record in the league and they obviously tanked hard at the end of the season.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

How is it possible to complain about where we are. 3rd worst record in the league and they obviously tanked hard at the end of the season.

We do not have the 3rd worst record outright. We got lucky that Orlando shit the bed in their last game, as well as Atl winning 2 of their last 3... so I guess they are more boneheaded. We could have had at least 2nd pick but we had to win a few of the easier to tank games vs good teams like Portland, then we almost beat Minny, then OT at Detroit.

It's not as much a complaint as it is an attempt to clear the air on how confused some are about how we are the tank masters that figured out how to barely lose 34 games and yet still blow a few easy chances to lose to some good/decent teams.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

You can't really prove this. The only time the Mavs actually tried to win a few was right after Cuban's dumb comments, but they quickly went back to tank.

And the close losses don't really hold much value either. I always go back to Cuban's most famous quote..."The difference between good and bad teams is that good teams win close games." So whether Rick intentionally lost close games or the Mavs were just bad...it's all moot.

A team can't go 0-82.

There's a huge difference between going 0-82 and losing 3 or 4 more games. I find it really hard to imagine that you think Rick intentionally lost the vast majority of those 34 or so close games... why not just win them then or 22-25 of them, if he could be that accurate and measured? That would have been the difference in us making the playoffs.

Mark Cubans words should typically be taken with a grain of salt. I wouldn't even be surprised if that was him stealing a Donnie Nelson quote from a meeting.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

There's a huge difference between going 0-82 and losing 3 or 4 more games. I find it really hard to imagine that you think Rick intentionally lost the vast majority of those 34 or so close games... why not just win them then or 22-25 of them, if he could be that accurate and measured? That would have been the difference in us making the playoffs.

Mark Cubans words should typically be taken with a grain of salt. I wouldn't even be surprised if that was him stealing a Donnie Nelson quote from a meeting.

So when Mark Cuban admits they're tanking on the radio that he isn't being serious? When it got him a fined by the commish? When even Dirk said those comments screwed up their tank? Really? So your owner and your franchise 20 year player both admitted they were tanking, but because we have some close losses that it wasn't true?

And yes, I think Rick is good enough to lose close games. It keeps the league off your ass, and it really isn't as hard as people make it out to be. Losing is much easier than winning in the NBA.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Well one thing is for sure. I refuse to believe that our staff didn't know Motley could help the team win. He never got playing time even when he was with the team. And after watching a few games of his when he finally got PT it's pretty easy to see to me that he would have won a few games for us if he played.

The only issue I really have is how long it took the mavs to admit to themselves they needed to tank. There were plenty of games JJ Barea and crew were closing games out. That stretch where we won 4 games in a row, pretty sure JJ was on the floor to close the game out on 2 of those wins. All those wins were 8 points or less as well. So IMO they just took too long to see they needed to tank. They tried to win close games until the losses piled up enough that they could no longer ignore it. We were 9-25 after losing to the Hawks then like idiots we went and won 4 straight games. It's fine to win some games but we were seriously and in some cases desperately trying to win, not just the players but RC was since jj was closing games. That's my only criticism really. We eventually got it together and maximized our chances for losses by playing players at certain times to ensure they wouldn't close games.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Well one thing is for sure. I refuse to believe that our staff didn't know Motley could help the team win. He never got playing time even when he was with the team. And after watching a few games of his when he finally got PT it's pretty easy to see to me that he would have won a few games for us if he played.

The only issue I really have is how long it took the mavs to admit to themselves they needed to tank. There were plenty of games JJ Barea and crew were closing games out. That stretch where we won 4 games in a row, pretty sure JJ was on the floor to close the game out on 2 of those wins. All those wins were 8 points or less as well. So IMO they just took too long to see they needed to tank. They tried to win close games until the losses piled up enough that they could no longer ignore it. We were 9-25 after losing to the Hawks then like idiots we went and won 4 straight games. It's fine to win some games but we were seriously and in some cases desperately trying to win, not just the players but RC was since jj was closing games. That's my only criticism really. We eventually got it together and maximized our chances for losses by playing players at certain times to ensure they wouldn't close games.

I think the main reason Motley wasn't player was because of Noel. Right when he got banned is when Motley was put in.

I agree about JJB playing, but I'm guessing he is on the team to help with Smith Jr. I dunno to what end that is actually working as there really is no other reason for him to be on the team.

[hayth.james.g]

jjj has me torn. Clearly a monster of a ceiling. Maybe it's the Ringer podcasts drilling it into me, but I would be ok with him at 4 or 5.

[Scoobay]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Draft guide from The Ringer

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=...034.1504810662

Man the Ringer doesn't like Michael Porter very much... an athletic keith van horn? <puke>
and lol Harrison Barnes as a comp... i guess we're not taking him. we already got one of those.

They have Mikal ranked fourth - they might be right but that would have him landing in our lap possibly.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Scoobay

Man the Ringer doesn't like Michael Porter very much... an athletic keith van horn? <puke>
and lol Harrison Barnes as a comp... i guess we're not taking him. we already got one of those.

LOL, a year ago he was being compared to Kevin Durant.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

jjj has me torn. Clearly a monster of a ceiling. Maybe it's the Ringer podcasts drilling it into me, but I would be ok with him at 4 or 5.

There is a definite split in popularity between Bamba and JJJ. I still think physical tools favor Bamba with his freak wingspan. JJJ has a better all-around game, but I dunno if greatness will befall him.

It's a tough call, but this league often favors the freaks. Bamba is a freak.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

So when Mark Cuban admits they're tanking on the radio that he isn't being serious? When it got him a fined by the commish? When even Dirk said those comments screwed up their tank? Really? So your owner and your franchise 20 year player both admitted they were tanking, but because we have some close losses that it wasn't true?

And yes, I think Rick is good enough to lose close games. It keeps the league off your ass, and it really isn't as hard as people make it out to be. Losing is much easier than winning in the NBA.

Oh?! Is winning much easier to do than winning? Is that just in the nba or is that across the board with all sports

I have not seen that quote from Dirk. But yes, I take what Cubes says with a grain of salt... just like many others do.

My question still stands, if Rick was able to be that accurate and managed to lose that amount of close games on purpose, which started happening well before we were eliminated from the playoff picture, why not win them? It's because we just weren't good enough...we tried but we couldn't quite get it done.