Obama beats McCain in three swing states: poll - Page 18 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

Janett_Reno · 10-28-2008, 01:09 PM

Last week is upon us. Last week of polling.

Arizona 41% 49% Oct 18 Oct 27 Northern Arizona U.
Arizona 46% 51% Oct 26 Oct 26 Rasmussen
Colorado 50% 46% Oct 26 Oct 26 Rasmussen
Florida 49% 44% Oct 23 Oct 26 Suffolk U.
Florida 49% 44% Oct 25 Oct 26 Datamar
Florida 51% 47% Oct 26 Oct 26 Rasmussen
Iowa 52% 42% Oct 23 Oct 24 Marist Coll.
Missouri 48% 47% Oct 26 Oct 26 Rasmussen
Missouri 48% 48% Oct 25 Oct 26 SurveyUSA
Mississippi 33% 46% Oct 13 Oct 23 USA Polling Group
North Carolina 48% 49% Oct 26 Oct 26 Rasmussen
North Carolina NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 47, McCain 47 Tie
New Hampshire 50% 45% Oct 22 Oct 23 Marist Coll.
Ohio 49% 45% Oct 26 Oct 26 Rasmussen
Pennsylvania 50% 41% Oct 20 Oct 26 Temple U.
Pennsylvania 53% 40% Oct 22 Oct 26 Siena Coll.
Virginia 51% 40% Oct 20 Oct 22 Virg. Commonwealth U.
Virginia 51% 47% Oct 26 Oct 26 Rasmussen
Virginia 52% 43% Oct 25 Oct 26 SurveyUSA
Virginia 52% 44% Oct 22 Oct 25 Washington Post
Montana NBC/Mason-Dixon McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
IN-Pres Oct 28 Res. 2000 Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 47%
NV-Pres Oct 28 Suffolk Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 40%
WI-Pres Oct 28 Str. Vision (R) Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%

Janett_Reno · 10-28-2008, 01:25 PM

InsiderAdvantage: McCain Clings to Lead in Georgia
A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia finds Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by just one point, 48% to 47%.

Said pollster Matt Towery: "Obama had a better shot of winning Georgia than North Carolina or Florida but he's letting it slip away."

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) holds a two point edge over challenger Jim Martin (D).

Mason-Dixon: Montana Is Close
A new round of NBC/Mason-Dixon polls is out today:

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, McCain 39%

North Carolina: Obama 47%, McCain 47%

Montana: McCain 48%, Obama 44%

"This Montana poll, in fact, comes just as we've learned that the Republican National Committee's independent expenditure arm will begin advertising there tomorrow. That's right, folks -- Montana is still in play, and the race there could even be closer than the poll suggests when 1) popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is at the top of the ticket; 2) Sen. Max Baucus (D) is cruising to re-election; and 3) the state GOP there is in a mess."

Early Voters Favor Obama
The latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll says that of the 9% who say they've already voted, either by early in-person voting or absentee ballot, their preference is Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain, by 60% to 39%.

Pew Research: Obama Crushing McCain Nationally
Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in the latest Pew Research survey.

"This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%."

McCain-Palin Rift Grows
The divisions in the McCain-Palin campaign continue to widen with one senior McCain aide telling Mike Allen that Gov. Sarah Palin is "a whack job."

Meanwhile, George Stephanopoulos said this about the "demoralized" McCain campaign on ABC News this morning: "Palin is going to be the most vivid chapter of the McCain campaign's post-mortem... Those loyal to McCain believe they have been unfairly blamed for over-handling Palin. They say they did the best they could with what they got."

RNC Buys Ads in Montana
A Democratic media buying source tells Marc Ambinder -- and Republicans confirm -- that the RNC's independent expenditure arm has bought television ads in Montana.

The state has three electoral votes and was won by President Bush by twenty points four years ago.

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 01:18 PM

President

National FOX News Obama 47, McCain 44 Obama +3
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, McCain 46 Obama +5
National Gallup (Traditional)* Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Gallup (Expanded)* Obama 51, McCain 44 Obama +7
National Diageo/Hotline Obama 48, McCain 42 Obama +6
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7

Pennsylvania NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4 Pennsylvania CNN/Time Obama 55, McCain 43 Obama +12
Colorado Marist Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Colorado National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Minnesota NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 48, McCain 40 Obama +8
Minnesota Minn. Pub. Radio Obama 56, McCain 37 Obama +19
Virginia Marist Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Virginia National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Ohio CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Ohio National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
North Carolina CNN/Time Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
North Carolina National Journal/FD Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4
Nevada CNN/Time Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
NV-Pres Oct 29 Res. 2000 Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%
Arizona CNN/Time McCain 53, Obama 46 McCain +7
Arizona NBC/Mason-Dixon McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4

Senate

Minnesota Senate Rasmussen Franken 39, Coleman 43, Barkley 14 Coleman +4
Alaska Senate Rasmussen Begich 52, Stevens 44 Begich +8
New Hampshire Senate WMUR/UNH Shaheen 48, Sununu 40 Shaheen +8
North Carolina Senate Associated Press/GfK Hagan 47, Dole 43 Hagan +4
NC-SEN Oct 30 Rasmussen Hagan (D) 52%, Dole (R) 46%
New Hampshire Senate Associated Press-GfK Shaheen 47, Sununu 41 Shaheen +6
Virginia Senate Associated Press/GfK Warner 58, Gilmore 32 Warner +26
Colorado Senate Associated Press/GfK Udall 48, Schaffer 36 Udall +12
Texas Senate University of Texas Cornyn 45, Noriega 36 Cornyn +9

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 01:46 PM

President

Indiana 46% 45% Oct 26 Oct 28 Selzer
Colorado 53% 45% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
Alabama 36% 61% Oct 27 Oct 28 SurveyUSA
Missouri 48% 50% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
North Carolina 52% 46% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
New Hampshire 55% 37% Oct 22 Oct 26 GfK Roper
New Mexico 54% 44% Oct 28 Oct 28 Rasmussen
Nevada 52% 45% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
Virginia 48% 39% Oct 19 Oct 26 Roanoke Coll.
Virginia 49% 42% Oct 22 Oct 26 GfK Roper
Virginia 53% 44% Oct 23 Oct 28 Opinion Research
Wisconsin 53% 42% Oct 27 Oct 28 Research 2000
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Remember the state of VA Tuesday night. If you see where VA falls blue, the race is over. You can also watch PA as McCain must turn this state red. I don't think he will but if he does, this does not predict victory for him but makes it where he has a chance. If he doesn't win PA, then 99.9% of everything else must break for McCain. The truth is, McCain needed a state like IA or PA locked down one month ago and either OH or FL, locked down one month ago to give him different options. So far he hasn't locked down any of these. Where Obama locked down, IA, NM, NH, PA a few weeks ago and gave him many options.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Report: Al Gore To Campaign For Obama In Florida
By Greg Sargent - October 30, 2008, 9:27AM
Chuck Todd and the gang at MSNBC's First Read have a nice little scooplet:

Tomorrow, according to sources, Al and Tipper Gore will be stumping for Obama in West Palm and Ft. Lauderdale. It's the first time he's campaigned in Florida for president since 2000. While he's campaigned in the Sunshine State since 2000, he's not done so for a presidential candidate since he himself was running.
The image of Gore in Florida, for obvious reasons, will be a powerful one for rank-and-file Dems. Also note the extraordinary amount of attention that the Obama camp is lavishing on the state in the home stretch.

Bill Clinton was there yesterday with Obama, who holds a rally there this morning, and now Gore tomorrow. You have to imagine that all the Dem activity in this state, which was supposed to be an easy win for McCain, is rattling the McCain team like nothing else.

Late Update: Gore spokesperson Kalee Kreider emails to confirm that the events are indeed set to go.

(Great job Al, from Janett, thank you for going to FL on behalf of Obama)

NYT: Early Voting Is A Hit
The New York Times reviews the latest early-voting stats, showing that early voting has now earned itself a major place in American politics. It's now expected that a full third of the total votes across the country will have been cast early, relieving congestion at the polls on Election Day as voters whose minds were made up get in their say beforehand -- for example, I mailed my absentee ballot this morning.

Star/WTHR Poll: Closer Than Ever in Indiana
A new Indianapolis Star/WTHR Poll in Indiana shows Sen. Barack Obama just edging Sen. John McCain, 45.9% to 45.3%.

Said pollster Ann Selzer: "When you have a race this close, anything, anything that we can't sit here and predict today, could end up being the deciding factor."

New House Rattings
The latest Rothenberg Political Report shows a predicted Democratic gain of 27 to 33 seats in the House of Representatives next Tuesday.

Larry Sabato's new ratings shows a Democratic pick up of 26 to 35 seats

Lieberman Likely to Lose Chairmanship
"There's a good chance Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman will lose his only committee chairmanship next year," according to CQ Politics.

"Members of the majority party's leadership have discussed taking away Lieberman's gavel on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, perhaps replacing it with a subcommittee gavel."

Crist Says Internal Polls Give McCain Lead in Florida
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) said internal polls show Sen. John McCain ahead in his state, according to The Hill.

Said Crist: "I'm hearing some very encouraging numbers, you know, some polls reporting [McCain] three or four points up already in the Sunshine State."

F&M Poll: Obama Crushing McCain in Pennsylvania
A new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania finds Sen. Barack Obama way ahead of Sen. John McCain, 53% to 40%, among likely voters.

"Obama holds a sizable lead among younger residents, non-whites, college graduates, women, and residents of Philadelphia and Allegheny County. His advantage among these groups has mostly increased since September."

Underdog · 10-30-2008, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Report: Al Gore To Campaign For Obama In Florida

Um, doesn't Al Gore have bad luck in Florida?

mary · 10-30-2008, 01:58 PM

I think McCain will end up carrying Florida for some reason.

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 02:02 PM

Oh no, Al Gore and Bill Clinton helps. I wish Al Gore had went out more but i am thankful for all he does. I think not only is it important for Obama to win but how he wins. I hope he wins states like VA, NC, FL, OH and even IN. Red states and maybe upset McCain in GA. I think Obama will win CO and NV.

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 02:34 PM

FL is very close. Either man can win at this point, as we can see the polling is very close in FL. The problem for McCain, if he doesn't win PA, he must will most all the swing states up for grabs and hold all red states. Obama can lose FL ande OH and win. He has many more options and that is why McCain must turn PA red. I hope Obama can win both FL and OH. States like FL, OH, IN, NC, MO are so close and maybe even GA. I think Obama will take NV, CO, VA and he is looking good in these others. Maybe he can also win NC. OH, FL, IN and even GA should go down to the wire and last day.

The states of NC and GA are important to be able to kick rubber stamp Lizzy out and put a democrat in. Chambliss in GA needs to retire down in Crawford also, sip on some Billy Beer and BBQ with the Boyz in Crawford. He is hanging on to that 2 point lead.

The only bad thing, it will be tough to hit 60 in the senate for the dems. It was always going to be an uphill battle and it isn't a done deal. They can but it will be hard and things will have to break perfect for it to happen. Stevens guilty on all 7 counts should help the dems in Alaska. Looks like Coleman is leading again over Franken but Clinton is going up today and maybe Bill can swing Franken back in the lead. Lizzy is fighting with rage but this is one seat i feel will be hard for the reps to keep. Her rubber stamping will probably cost her her job. GA and Chambliss, very interesting here. Deep, deep red state and he has helped the cons alot. The backlash of the con adm has really been seen in GA. People out, in a deep red state, trying to vote the cons out. Obama did pull alot of workers out of GA and now they are going back in because of the race getting close in GA. Voter turn out baby. Get out the vote. Get er done.

The reps have put money in KY, MS and even NC and GA trying to save these seats. Especially Mitch the "puppet" and looks like he will probably hang on but we never know. What a beautiful night Tuesday will be. Alot of the cons will be gone. The bad thing, i am seeing more and more of the neocons that are republicans votting for Obama. It was another con comming out today for Obama. I hope they would retire and stay down in Crawford.

"Francis Fukuyama, the prominent academic and an early intellectual defender of neoconservatism, endorses Barack Obama in the pages of the American Conservative magazine"

I'm voting for Barack Obama this November for a very simple reason. It is hard to imagine a more disastrous presidency than that of George W. Bush. It was bad enough that he launched an unnecessary war and undermined the standing of the United States throughout the world in his first term. But in the waning days of his administration, he is presiding over a collapse of the American financial system and broader economy that will have consequences for years to come. As a general rule, democracies don't work well if voters do not hold political parties accountable for failure. While John McCain is trying desperately to pretend that he never had anything to do with the Republican Party, I think it would a travesty to reward the Republicans for failure on such a grand scale.

McCain's appeal was always that he could think for himself, but as the campaign has progressed, he has seemed simply erratic and hotheaded. His choice of Sarah Palin as a running mate was highly irresponsible; we have suffered under the current president who entered office without much knowledge of the world and was easily captured by the wrong advisers. McCain's lurching from Reaganite free- marketer to populist tribune makes one wonder whether he has any underlying principles at all.

------------------------------

But see here again, the republicans are split. The neocons are running in all different directions. Some of the cons are votting Obama and some of the republicans are votting Obama but the cons/reps are fighting within their party against one another, no matter who they support. Now some of them want to blame Bush/Cheney/McCain and really take it out on Palin. Why don't some of these cons and reps look at themself in the mirror. Why didn't they stand up for themself a year or more ago and the public knows how bad W and Cheney has been and also McCain joining them but hey, it took Lizzy rubber stamp Dole and others helping them. Pretty bad if you ask me, now run from the adm to try to save yourself politically.

"Fukuyama's undergone a shift in recent years, notably declaring the death of his own neoconservative movement in a 2006 essay."

DirkFTW · 10-30-2008, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

Remember the state of VA Tuesday night. If you see where VA falls blue, the race is over.

What? Over?!? Did you say over? Nothing's over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? HELL NO!

Underdog · 10-30-2008, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirkFTW

What? Over?!? Did you say over? Nothing's over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? HELL NO!

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 02:54 PM

Great, great............ Keep on keeping On......

Barack Obama and Pres Bill Clinton together on Stump in Florida PT.1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7LGKzQ6XnI

Barack Obama and Pres Bill Clinton together on Stump in Florida PT2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lZWKgdmt_k

Come on Al, i want to add your vid also. Come on FL, let's get our great country on track like Bill did. Tuesday can't come soon enough.

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 03:00 PM

VA, NC falls it's over, if either OH or FL falls, it's over. IN, GA falls it is over. The neocons out. Bring back Palin in 2012. She don't strike no fear in the dems. Some of these other states i mention, you "might" have to wait awhile to see the total vote and way up in the night but "VA" could be that red state that kicks the cons to the curb fast Tuesday night.

That is the state i am watching and if it falls, watch other red states tumble down and paint themself blue. I haven't given up on GA either. Let's paint er blue way down south. This is one time the vote will be rocked. Rock it baby.

I'm not sure what state i want to fly to to celebrate. Thinking now, maybe VA.

chumdawg · 10-30-2008, 03:18 PM

I think VA is probably a done deal. NC is the more interesting of the two, I think. If NC falls, we're going to see a landslide.

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 03:40 PM

This is true chum and if you made me pick now nc, i would Obama but it is close. I think this election could be close with Mac losing, if someway Mac could close alot of these states and most Obama are leading in. I don't think Mac would win but could keep it respectable. He is also so close to being landslided. It can go either way.

The ground game is so much better on the dems side than the reps. Look who is helping each party and going out for them. It started long ago and you could see it in here, some wanted Rudy, some Romney, a very few if any wanted Mac, a few liked Fred and a few liked Huck. The base did not stand with Mac. Some have but not all. But this is just not happening within this forum, within the voters but within the republican party itself. Most of them want change within their party. It flawed Mac from the beginning and especially alot of them not liking him and thinking of him as a Lieberman. Then go and get the complete opposite of what a Lieberman/McCain is in a Palin. The party is split within McCains staff going from one extreme to the other in so many things they are doing.

Why a close race is important to the reps, is not so many house and senate members get dragged down and a blow out, equals big gains in the house and senate for dems also. When the reps tried to drag Hillary and Bill over to McCain and they couldn't, they should have changed strats. Instead they kept on attacking and Mac and Palin won't talk about any of their policies and they will not tell how they differ than Bush/Cheney. So they keep losing reps support and some reps jumping over to support Obama. Who ran Macs campaign was terrible. Sometimes Palin goes out and will say she stands for something the complete opposite Mac stands for.

They have no game. Obama does and he has a brilliant staff. Obama and the dems ground game is putting so much heat on in NC, VA, FL, OH, IN, MO, NH, and even in deep red GA the reps are being overwhelmed. I feel if Obaba wins VA he wins and i am with you, if he wins NC it will be a land slide and it is very close today on which way it goes.

Flacolaco · 10-30-2008, 03:57 PM

I don't think it's going to be close with the electoral votes at all.

That's the funny old thing about the electoral college. McCain will probably lose all those states 48 to 47 and yet it will be called a "land slide."

---------------------------------------------

By the way, if anyone is interested in the projected changes to the number of representatives/electoral votes:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_..._apportionment

Gain more than one
Texas +4
Arizona +2
Florida +2

Gain one
Georgia +1
Nevada +1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
South Carolina +1
Utah +1

Lose one
California -1
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Missouri -1
New Jersey -1
Pennsylvania -1

Lose more than one
New York -2
Ohio -2

Mavdog · 10-30-2008, 04:10 PM

the phrase that comes to my mind is "tsunami"......

not only the presidency, but 60+ democrats in senate, maybe 260+ in house

it could be a very, very long night (and years) for the republican party.

mary · 10-30-2008, 04:57 PM

Obviously the electoral projections are in Obama's favor. But McCain is staying in Pennsylvania this week...and just imagine if he does manage to flip it - it will be a whole new ballgame. Polls have been off by double digits in previous elections, so anything can still happen.

I'm not trying to sandbag or anything, but I still see a way McCain can win this.

purplefrog · 10-30-2008, 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavdog

the phrase that comes to my mind is "tsunami"......

not only the presidency, but 60+ democrats in senate, maybe 260+ in house

it could be a very, very long night (and years) for the republican party.

Two weeks ago when I suggested there was a real danger of this scenario (no checks and balances for the Dems) you brushed it aside as it being something unlikely to happen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavdog

d) he will not win in a landslide, and there will be no mandate which allows for unrestrained liberties by the presidency. he will still have to deal with the congress, and the congress has its own self interest.

http://www.dallas-mavs.com/vb/showth...t=33990&page=4

And make no mistake about it. If this scenario happens the Dems will have few if any checks to their power. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid will declare a mandate from the American people (and they will be correct... God help us). The Dems will use this scenario to implement extreme policies. If they don't... then I will .... oh well, umm.. I don't know...... become a Warriors fan???

Mavdog · 10-30-2008, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplefrog

Two weeks ago when I suggested there was a real danger of this scenario (no checks and balances for the Dems) you brushed it aside as it being something unlikely to happen.

yep, the dynamic has changed imo. my viewpoint has changed.

I'm looking at the early voting numbers and if my view is accurate, that the huge numbers mean a strong vote FOR obama, then it will be a landslide. there could be a bunch of straight party ballots turned in.

Quote:

And make no mistake about it. If this scenario happens the Dems will have few if any checks to their power. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid will declare a mandate from the American people (and they will be correct... God help us). The Dems will use this scenario to implement extreme policies. If they don't... then I will .... oh well, umm.. I don't know...... become a Warriors fan???

a warriors fan? isn't that going to the extreme? please get a grip on yourself, no need for that drastic an action!

the idea that the democrat leadership is in unison, that pelosi, reid and obama, are all on the very same page and agree on everything isn't realistic.

will we see some major policy changes? absolutely, and that is of course what the voters are asking for in electing obama.

will these policy changes be "extreme"? I'm not expecting that, but we'll see.

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

I don't think it's going to be close with the electoral votes at all.

That's the funny old thing about the electoral college. McCain will probably lose all those states 48 to 47 and yet it will be called a "land slide."

---------------------------------------------

By the way, if anyone is interested in the projected changes to the number of representatives/electoral votes:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_..._apportionment

Gain more than one
Texas +4
Arizona +2
Florida +2

Gain one
Georgia +1
Nevada +1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
South Carolina +1
Utah +1

Lose one
California -1
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Missouri -1
New Jersey -1
Pennsylvania -1

Lose more than one
New York -2
Ohio -2

You could be right and i was thinking the same thing. For instance let's say McCain got beat but 1 point in FL, VA, NC, IN, OH, CO and NV. It could be a land slide by ev vote but by popular vote very close. That is a weird thing about the polling as McCain shows he is closing in a little in some of these states and i think Obama has stretched out more in CO but polling it could be very close.

I know it isn't over untill it is over also and it was mentioned by a republican on tv, that W had a comphy lead going in untill the weekend and Gore really closed and made it very close. It just seems Obama has McCain fighting in to many states to survive. Obama was very good against Hillary with the ev vote, as where Hillary did well with popular vote but as we all know itis the ev's that matter in the end.

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavdog

the phrase that comes to my mind is "tsunami"......

not only the presidency, but 60+ democrats in senate, maybe 260+ in house

it could be a very, very long night (and years) for the republican party.

This is true. It seems that in the polling, the republicans have helped themself in some of the senate races here lately. Coleman comes to mind and Wicker in MS. I noticed one poll showing Dole ahead but most show her behind. To get to 60, things really need to go good for the dems and it could but i feel to get there, Dole, Coleman and Chambliss need to fall. I think Stevens will lose and in OR i feel the dem will win.

It will be interesting to see how far it does go. Remember, the democrats did really bad when W took office and they had to regroup also. I think it will be a long night for the rep party but i am waiting to see if the dems can get 60 in the senate or how close they can get to it. Atleast 56 or 57, possibly 60, depending on how bad it does get for the rep party and turn out. It looks like it will be a big turn out.

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplefrog

Two weeks ago when I suggested there was a real danger of this scenario (no checks and balances for the Dems) you brushed it aside as it being something unlikely to happen.

http://www.dallas-mavs.com/vb/showth...t=33990&page=4

And make no mistake about it. If this scenario happens the Dems will have few if any checks to their power. Obama, Pelosi, and Reid will declare a mandate from the American people (and they will be correct... God help us). The Dems will use this scenario to implement extreme policies. If they don't... then I will .... oh well, umm.. I don't know...... become a Warriors fan???

It was no checks and balances when W took over either. The dems were kicked out. We saw what kind of shape our country got in. It is usually better when it is checks and balances between both parties but here lately, the public gets fed up with one party and kicks them out. The dems was kicked out after Clinton, then after 6 years of W and reps, the public kicked out most reps 2 years ago and now it is looking like alot more will be kicked out. Like Mary said, anything can happen but it doesn't look good for the reps now. Mary, you are right, if the reps want to have any kind of shot, they need to flip PA.

The only bad thing about this, it is so many dems in the ground game making rounds daily thru about 7 swing states while McCain/Palin have to sit in PA, FL and OH. Then this adm is not helping McCain and not alot of his party is marching the streets for him, helping him. The bad thing i see in PA for McCain, so many in PA like Biden, both Clintons, Rendell, and it is the dems ground game that is so powerful this time. Plus the youth and workers out working for Obama. So yes he does need to flip PA but as he does, then the dems make up ground in the other swing states. McCain needed more help and ground game.

Janett_Reno · 10-30-2008, 07:02 PM

Couple more just came in from senate

North Carolina Senate Rasmussen Hagan 52, Dole 46 Hagan +6
Kentucky Senate Rasmussen McConnell 51, Lunsford 44 McConnell +7

Lizzy is in bad trouble. This also looks good for Obama, in NC. It is close and can go either way in NC for Mac/Obama. Mitch has opened up a little at plus 7. I'm just not sure how much can creep in from VA, NC, IN and OH into KY. Mitch took a beating from alot of Kentuckians on the Iraq war and just being a rubber stamp, like Lizzy is but also he has had a strong hold on KY for awhile now. That +7 looks good right now and pretty safe.

3 more pres polls

North Carolina Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
Kentucky Rasmussen McCain 55, Obama 43 McCain +12
Montana Rasmussen McCain 50, Obama 46 McCain +4

The reps have had to buy more air time out in MT this week. I think Mitch had to get a 5 mill loan to help his chances out also. Ky at +12 for Mac looks pretty solid for Mac and even Mitch. In MT it is taking money and alot of Hank songs to keep from turning red to blue. Is Obama's people even out in MT? I think the gov did go dem in the last election in a close race. That is the prob, when Palin/Mac stay away to long from somewhere, it starts drifing. MT, AZ, SD, ND.

Why did people in Macs camp have in in IA not long ago seeing this, IA-Pres Oct 30 SurveyUSA Obama (D) 55%, McCain (R) 40%. This was probably when he had to turn a blue state red but he is getting killed in IA and he went up there and sat in some little room for the Des Moines Register paper as someone asked him about Palin and her credentials and he went on about she once was ahead of the pta in her town or Alaska. I was like is his camp trying to help Mac get a spot on SNL. He finally left IA and then moved in PA.

One more on Mitch

KY-SEN Oct 30 Mason-Dixon McConnell (R) 47%, Lunsford (D) 42%

Here is one more better for Mac in the state of IN

IN-Pres Oct 30 RasmussenMcCain (R) 49%, Obama (D) 46%

Go Mavs, off to watch Mavs. Hope it is a good game.

purplefrog · 10-31-2008, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavdog

yep, the dynamic has changed imo. my viewpoint has changed.

I'm looking at the early voting numbers and if my view is accurate, that the huge numbers mean a strong vote FOR obama, then it will be a landslide. there could be a bunch of straight party ballots turned in.

a warriors fan? isn't that going to the extreme? please get a grip on yourself, no need for that drastic an action!

the idea that the democrat leadership is in unison, that pelosi, reid and obama, are all on the very same page and agree on everything isn't realistic.

will we see some major policy changes? absolutely, and that is of course what the voters are asking for in electing obama.

will these policy changes be "extreme"? I'm not expecting that, but we'll see.

You're right about being a Warriors fan. What came over me?

The thing is if Obama does win 350+ electoral votes (my prediction) and Congress goes the way we think it might then the Dems have every right to declare the mandate and bring about some sort of "change" the vast majority of Americans really want (I believe people want change in a general sense but don't really know specifically what they want). My concern is we don't really know what "change" will mean after the votes are counted. Once the Dems realize they've got a blank check they will become drunk with power (not because they are Democrats, because they are human beings). Combine that with Obama being a narcissist and we are likely to have a transforming of America that fits the ideology of the extreme left of the Democratic party. Imo, that's not reassuring. We need moderation, not extremism.

Mavdog · 10-31-2008, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by purplefrog

You're right about being a Warriors fan. What came over me?

The thing is if Obama does win 350+ electoral votes (my prediction) and Congress goes the way we think it might then the Dems have every right to declare the mandate and bring about some sort of "change" the vast majority of Americans really want (I believe people want change in a general sense but don't really know specifically what they want). My concern is we don't really know what "change" will mean after the votes are counted. Once the Dems realize they've got a blank check they will become drunk with power (not because they are Democrats, because they are human beings). Combine that with Obama being a narcissist and we are likely to have a transforming of America that fits the ideology of the extreme left of the Democratic party. Imo, that's not reassuring. We need moderation, not extremism.

saw this a couple of days ago in the wsj, seems relevant.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Democrats Vie to Shape an Obama Legislative Agenda
Advisers, House Caucuses Jockey for Input Should Senator Win the Presidency; Tensions Over How Fast to Move on Big IssuesBy JONATHAN WEISMANArticle

Democrats inside Sen. Barack Obama's circle of advisers and on Capitol Hill are jockeying even before Election Day to shape an Obama administration's legislative agenda and define "Obamanomics," a concept he himself has left vague over the campaign.

Sen. Obama has been able to win support by convincing voters he could simultaneously be a populist and a fiscal disciplinarian, that he could invest in education, energy and health care and adhere to rules that say additional spending must be more than offset by cuts or tax increases. He attacks greed and excess in Wall Street, yet reaches out to assure financial leaders he understands markets' needs.

But if Sen. Obama wins on Tuesday and Democrats expand their congressional majority, the party in power will quickly have to reconcile these seeming contradictions into a legislative strategy.

Sen. John McCain and his camp are also looking toward the transition period and how he would govern with a hostile Congress. But with Sen. Obama ahead in polls and Democrats virtually assured control of the Capitol, likely with expanded majorities, the action is most intense on that side of the aisle.

"It's better to let things evolve than to revolve. Revolutions are dangerous," cautioned Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina, the House Majority Whip, who advises a pragmatic approach to governance that would begin with items that have proven bipartisan support before tackling ambitious elements such as universal health care.

"He's a national leader, Clyburn," House Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel of New York snapped back, embodying the views of liberals who want to move fast on the most ambitious version of Obamanomics possible. "I'm thinking of his constituents, and he doesn't have the slightest clue what he's talking about."

More than a month ago, House Majority Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer said he called Sen. Obama's congressional liaison, Phil Schiliro, to begin plotting strategy and laying out an agenda. Since then, he said, there have been "a number of conversations," between Sen. Obama and Democratic leaders and between Obama aides and key committee and leadership staff.

"It would be irresponsible not to plan as if you were going to win," said Rep. Hoyer, of Maryland.

Democratic governors have been pushing for input as well, taking advantage of their positions atop regional vote-delivery machines. "I'm a swing-state governor. I've talked to this guy probably more than my own parents," quipped Colorado's Bill Ritter, who got Sen. Obama to adopt his "new energy economy" mantra verbatim.

Democratic leaders, aides and Obama advisers say such conversations remain friendly. But some tension exists in an eclectic circle that includes Wall Streeters, labor leaders and liberal think-tank denizens.

Sen. Obama's economic brain trust dialed in two weeks ago to a conference call with the candidate to discuss how the Wall Street bailout was working when a split emerged over how hard the government should lean on the banks. Some advisers said it would be politically and economically disastrous if the billions of taxpayer dollars injected into ailing financial institutions just sat in vaults. Robert Rubin, who served as President Bill Clinton's Treasury secretary between stints on Wall Street, pushed back. Leaving the money in the banks would help stabilize them and prevent further turmoil in the credit markets, even if the money wasn't loaned out, the Citigroup Inc. executive said.

On Capitol Hill, three main factions are emerging with very different advice.

The first group, led by "old bull" liberals, wants to move fast on big-ticket issues such as universal health care and weaning the nation off Middle Eastern oil and on regulatory and labor issues, such as allowing unions to organize by getting would-be members to sign cards backing collective bargaining instead of submitting to secret ballots.

Rep. Rangel argues that a President Obama would face a narrow window after the election to move on those big items, as well as his tax plan. That would raise the top two income-tax rates, raise capital-gains and dividend tax rates on upper-income families, and cut taxes on the middle class. Democrats need to have faith that a strong showing in the election indicates broad political backing, Rep. Rangel said. They should be emboldened by the $700 billion Wall Street bailout that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson secured. And he doesn't want to hear talk of containing the deficit.

"For God's sake," he said, "don't ask me where the money will come from. I'm going to the same place Paulson went."

A second faction of more-conservative Democrats is focusing on fiscal discipline. With this fiscal year's deficit potentially approaching $1 trillion, these Democrats say the money for Sen. Obama's ambitious agenda simply isn't there. One of the first acts of the next Congress should be approving a bipartisan commission to tackle the deficit and the growth of entitlements, such as Medicare and Medicaid, argue the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats, who say they will have the numbers to make the demands.

"We've got 49 Blue Dogs, maybe 61 after the election," said Rep. Mike Ross of Arkansas. "We don't need much persuasion. We've got the votes."

Earlier this month, Sen. Obama called three prominent Blue Dogs, including Rep. Ross, to reassure them of his commitment to pay-as-you-go rules, which hold that any spending increases or tax cuts must be offset by equivalent spending cuts or tax increases. He also pledged to meet with the Blue Dog leadership shortly after the election.

"We know we have to do the energy plan. We have to deal with health care," said Rep. Allen Boyd, a conservative Democrat from the Florida panhandle who spoke with the candidate. "We can't do any of that until we lay out a plan to bring the fiscal, financial side in order."

The third group of Democrats could be labeled the middle-ground pragmatists. They embrace the activist agenda but are wary about going too far too fast. This camp, which includes the party's top congressional leadership, argues that Sen. Obama should move quickly on a few items with proven bipartisan support -- an economic-stimulus package, an expansion of the State Children's Health Insurance Program funded with a tobacco-tax increase, and funding for federal stem-cell research. They would then regroup and build bipartisan support for the new president's bigger-ticket items -- health care, energy, education and regulatory changes.

Former Clinton White House Chief of Staff John Podesta, the head of Sen. Obama's transition team, is studying the missteps of Bill Clinton's first years in office to avoid a repetition of the hubris that swept Democrats from power for 12 years starting in 1994.
"We moved fast in the 103rd [Congress], and what did it get us?" Rep. Clyburn said.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, head of the House Democratic Caucus, who has discussed this pragmatic approach with the candidate, says Sen. Obama remains firmly behind his full agenda -- but is flexible on timing and pacing. "He is more than willing to have a discussion on different policies but not on whether or not we do health care and energy. That's not what he's flexible on."

Senior Obama advisers say the senator has given no commitments to any of the camps. Without a chief of staff, without a formal policy apparatus to make such decisions, he can only take in the different arguments and await Election Day, they say.

After that, however, he won't have the luxury to put off decisions: If elected, his budget plan will be due by early February.

Janett_Reno · 10-31-2008, 01:25 PM

Obama will have many republicans stand by him now and in his adm. The real truth on the mess we are in is because W had a blank check with to many rubber stampers like Dole, Chambliss and McConnell but that is another story.

I don't make excuses, just like last nights game, Artest can play in the 4th quarter and we can't. We are a very good 3 quarter team(no bench) and saying that, i hope we learn to play the 4th quarter. The wars and all this stuff is no excuse for this adm. They were big time spenders. I have said investing in the middle east and investing in China was wrong. This adm drove us in the hole, maybe like never no adm has ever done in history and this was with a rep pres, a rep senate and a rep congress. It was no checks and balances. I can go on and on but won't and any mistakes Clinton made in his adm, no excuses.

Obama i feel, will not, wreck his country to better his party like this adm did. Plus i feel he will even have some reps in his adm. Now will it be checks and balances between the senate, house to the pres? We do not know how many senate seats the reps will lose. Can the dems get to 60? It will be hard but it is possible.

Janett_Reno · 10-31-2008, 02:12 PM

Early Voting Data Are Starting to Come in

Several organizations are collecting data on early voting, which is possible in about 30 states this year. One of them is EVIC at Reed College in Oregon. In North Carolina, almost 1 million Democrats have already voted, but only half a million Republicans. In Georgia, 1.4 million people (25% of the electorate) have already voted, with black turnout especially high (33% have already voted). Data for other states are available on the EVIC Website.

George Mason University also has a Website with early voting data. It reports that 20 million people have already voted nationwide.

CNN has an interactive map showing the number of early votes and absentee votes already cast. In New Mexico, for example, 194,000 Democrats and 110,000 Republicans have already voted. In another swing state, Nevada, the data are available for only two counties, Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno). In these two combined, 202,000 Democrats and 119,00 Republicans have already voted.

In Florida, blacks and elderly voters are turning out in droves, but younger voters aren't showing up yet. In the first nine days of voting, 1.4 million votes have been cast in the Sunshine state. About 54% were Democrats and 30% were Republicans even though Democrats comprise 42% of the registered voters and 36% of the registered voters are Republicans. The high Democratic turnout in Florida is not surprising. Obama has been pouring money into the state, with the weekly bill for TV ads running $5 million and 400 paid staff on the ground.

President Poll
---------------

Arizona 44% 48% Oct 27 Oct 28 Mason-Dixon
Arizona Research 2000: McCain 48%, Obama 47%
GA-Pres Oct 31 Res. 2000 McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%
Colorado 48% 44% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
Colorado 51% 45% Oct 27 Oct 28 Marist Coll.
Colorado PPP (D) Obama 54, McCain 44 Obama +10
Florida 45% 44% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
Iowa 53% 39% Oct 27 Oct 29 Research 2000
Iowa 55% 40% Oct 28 Oct 29 SurveyUSA
Indiana 46% 49% Oct 28 Oct 29 Rasmussen
Indiana SurveyUSA McCain 47, Obama 47 Tie
Kentucky 43% 55% Oct 29 Oct 29 Rasmussen
Louisiana 40% 43% Oct 24 Oct 26 Loyola U.
Minnesota 48% 40% Oct 27 Oct 28 Mason-Dixon
Montana 46% 50% Oct 29 Oct 29 Rasmussen
North Carolina 47% 43% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
North Carolina 50% 48% Oct 29 Oct 29 Rasmussen
NC-Pres Oct 31 Elon Univ.Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 38%
North Carolina Politico/InAdv Obama 48, McCain 48 Tie
New Hampshire 53% 40% Oct 27 Oct 29 Suffolk U.
New Hampshire SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 42 Obama +11
New Hampshire Concord Monitor Obama 51, McCain 44 Obama +7
New Hampshire Strategic Vision (R) Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
Ohio 48% 41% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
Pennsylvania 47% 43% Oct 27 Oct 28 Mason-Dixon
Pennsylvania Strategic Vision (R) Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10
Virginia 48% 44% Oct 23 Oct 27 Financial Dynamics
Virginia 51% 47% Oct 26 Oct 27 Marist Coll.
Wisconsin 55% 39% Oct 28 Oct 29 SurveyUSA
Missouri Politico/InAdv McCain 50, Obama 47 McCain +3
West Virginia PPP (D) McCain 55, Obama 42 McCain +13
Oregon PPP (D) Obama 57, McCain 42 Obama +15
New Mexico PPP (D) Obama 58, McCain 41 Obama +17

Senate
--------

Kentucky Bruce Lunsford 44% Mitch McConnell* 51% Oct 29 Oct 29 Rasmussen
Kentucky Senate Courier-Journal McConnell 47, Lunsford 42 McConnell +5
Louisiana Mary Landrieu* 49% John Kennedy 34% Oct 24 Oct 26 Loyola U.
Minnesota Al Franken 41% Norm Coleman* 37% Oct 24 Oct 28 U. of Minnesota
Minnesota Senate NBC/Mason-Dixon Franken 36, Coleman 42, Barkley 12 Coleman +6
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 48% John Sununu* 39% Oct 27 Oct 29 Suffolk U.
New Hampshire Senate SurveyUSA Shaheen 53, Sununu 40 Shaheen +13
Oregon Senate PPP (D) Merkley 51, Smith 43 Merkley +8
OR-SEN Oct 31 Rasmussen Merkley (D) 49%, Smith (R) 46%
AK-SEN Oct 31 Res. 2000 Begich (D) 58%, Stevens (R) 36%
GA-SEN Oct 31 Res. 2000 Chambliss (R) 47%, Martin (D) 46%
GA-SEN Oct 31 CNN Chambliss (R) 53%, Martin (D) 44%
GA-SEN Oct 31 Rasmussen Chambliss (R) 48%, Martin (D) 43%
NC-SEN Oct 31 CNN Hagan (D) 53%, Dole (R) 44%
NC-SEN Oct 31 Elon Univ. Hagan (D) 44%, Dole (R) 37%

The LA poll is shocking as i didn't even know LA was close and maybe it isn't because that is the only poll i have noticed that. McCain has closed in PA by the one poll. McConnell is keeping enough space for a win for now. MN is a total guess with Franken/Coleman because you can look at 10 polls and it will be split 5 and 5 for who is winning.

Obama Going Up On The Air In Georgia, North Dakota, And ... Arizona!

Early Voting Extended In North Carolina

North Carolina Republicans, predictably, are outraged by the extension -- not because Obama is leading McCain in early voting in the state by 59%-33%, as of two days ago -- but because they say they're worried about the stressed out election officials.

CBS/NYT Poll: Obama Winning Big -- If New Voters Turn Out

Janett_Reno · 10-31-2008, 04:55 PM

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15076.html

Barack Obama is shaking up the South by greatly expanding the black vote and forcing Republicans to confront splits in the same white conservative base that has long fortified the GOP in Congress.

Georgia’s U.S. Senate race is Exhibit 1, as a record turnout by African-Americans in early voting has lifted the candidacy of Democrat Jim Martin against Saxby Chambliss, the Republican incumbent. At the same time, Wall Street’s meltdown — punctuated by the state’s own fiscal woes — has soured the mood for Republicans, and Chambliss must win back conservatives, angered by his vote for Treasury’s $700 billion financial rescue plan.

Here in Cumming, the county seat for Republican Forsyth County, north of Atlanta, all these forces were on display this week in the courthouse square.

As a small group of upscale-suburban supporters gathered to hear Chambliss, Andy Schneider, a self-described small businessman, lifelong Republican, Georgia native and former firefighter, stood in overalls on the corner holding a sign that condemned the Treasury rescue plan as “Corporate Welfare” and urged voters to “Bail the Rats Out of Congress.”

“It’s for the people, by the people,” Schneider told Politico. “I think that 99 percent of the phone calls that Saxby got were for him to vote against the bailout, yet he did it anyway. He’s supposed to represent the people of the state of Georgia. … By far, the vast majority did not want the bailout.”

Libertarian Allen Buckley, a 48-year-old attorney and third-party candidate, stands to benefit from the unhappiness of conservatives like Schneider, and Chambliss could be forced into an embarrassing December runoff if he can’t get the 50 percent plus one required under Georgia law.

The Republican is outwardly confident, but there’s urgency in his voice as he tours North Georgia, trying to boost turnout in his predominately white base: “The other folks are voting,” he bluntly tells supporters.
Smelling blood, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee jumped in two weeks ago and is on track to spend close to $5 million before Nov. 4 to keep Martin competitive. Former President Bill Clinton came to Atlanta on Saturday for a closed-door event to raise funds and rally the party; new Democratic ads cast Chambliss as taking millions from Wall Street donors and then backing the “bailout” at the taxpayers' expense.

“He bailed out all the fat cats up on Wall Street” begins a new radio ad jingle this week. “Saxby economics won’t fill my pickup truck ... won’t catch my mortgage up. Saxby economics don’t trickle down on me.”

In the past, Chambliss might have easily weathered this storm. But Obama and the financial meltdown are a one-two punch, challenging the political equations that have guided Republicans in the South since Richard Nixon four decades ago.

That “Southern Strategy”— born of the post-civil rights, Vietnam, War on Poverty unrest of the ‘60s — swung Democratic whites into the GOP. But no one envisioned an Obama or black voter turnout of this size; no one could see today’s financial crisis, which has reopened the old divide between Republican Big-Business backers and the party’s more populist conservative voters in the region.

Everything begins with Obama, and here in Dr. Martin Luther King’s old haunts, the young presidential candidate is never spoken of as just “that one.” It’s more like “Hurricane Obama” or “The Locomotive.”
“My 84-year-old grandmother has never voted, and this year she insisted I take her,” says Tommy Wright, a United Steelworkers operative in Gwinnett County. New data released this week shows black registration has grown to 30 percent statewide. Among the nearly 1.4 million absentee and early ballots counted thus far, blacks have maintained a 35 percent share, according to the latest tallies released by the Georgia secretary of state’s office Wednesday.

When Hispanic and Asian-American voters are counted, the white majority share of the early vote is about 61 percent. These numbers will surely change in the final tallies, but Charles Bullock, a University of Georgia political scientist, predicts that blacks could very well account for a record 30 percent of the Georgia vote this year — five percentage points higher than in the last presidential campaign, he said.

If the number should go higher — as seen in the early voting — it would throw out years of assumptions by pollsters. “This one doesn’t follow any of the rules,” said Tom Perdue, a longtime political consultant for Chambliss. “You can’t figure it out.” Like much about Southern politics, there’s a personal side beyond the numbers.

Just years apart, Chambliss, who turns 65 next month, and Martin, 63, crossed paths as fraternity brothers at the University of Georgia in the turbulent ‘60s. Each embodies much about his party in the years since.

A handsome, big-voiced man, the senator will forever seem the modern Southern good-old boy, more frat house than courthouse, but a likable person who allows tough things to be done in his name.

A small city lawyer from southwest Georgia, Chambliss first came to Congress in 1994, the same year Republicans took over the House and installed a fellow Georgian, Newt Gingrich, as speaker and two other Southern deputies in the top command. Gingrich would ultimately fall. But at the height of President Bush’s power in 2002, Chambliss jumped to the Senate, ousting a Democratic incumbent and assuming the chairmanship of the Senate Agriculture Committee as only a freshman.

In the same period, Martin, a former legal aid lawyer, labored out of the limelight in the state Legislature and later ran the Georgia Department of Human Resources under Democratic — and, for a period, Republican — governors. Five-foot-eight and bespectacled, he might be Chambliss’ bookish cousin, a modern Walter Mitty character reveling in his dream now.

The senator campaigns in two passenger buses big enough for a football team — and band. Martin’s is a 15-seat Chevy van that resembles an airport parking lot shuttle. When a reporter asks about the campaign, he says proudly: “I believe we are tied.” When it’s pointed out that that doesn’t do it, Martin laughs. “It’s pretty extraordinary that we’re in this position right now,” he says.

Beneath this demeanor is a tough intellect. “I’m not mean, but I’m tough. I’m plenty tough,” he says.

Tough enough to survive polio as a child and still serve as an Army intelligence officer in the Vietnam War. Martin has four degrees from the University of Georgia: “As my brother says, I have more degrees than a thermometer,” he jokes. And with supporters in Lawrenceville, he paraphrases the late Southern historian George Brown Tindall when speaking of this election — and what could be his own odyssey.

“In this process of change, we’re not losing our identity,” Martin says. “We’re finding out who we are.”
The same could be said of Chambliss, the dominate character in this drama.

The senator led an almost charmed existence in his first years in Congress, but nothing lately has been so fortunate. It took months of struggle to complete a new Farm Bill this year that put him at odds with the White House as he sought to protect the region’s powerful cotton interests. Within days, he broke ranks with the administration in May over a supplemental spending bill that included a landmark expansion of education benefits for veterans — but also billions in new domestic spending.

National Democrats will never forgive Chambliss — who got draft deferments — for the punishing ads run in 2002 to help him oust Democratic Sen. Max Cleland, who lost both legs in Vietnam. But the great irony is that Chambliss is being punished hardest now for taking moderate stands applauded by his Democratic critics.

Responding to agriculture concerns, the Georgian first got himself in trouble last year when he flirted with bipartisan business-backed immigration reforms — and drew the ire and boos of conservatives at home. Chambliss quickly backed away, but when the Treasury bill came up this fall, he voted for the measure on Oct. 1 despite that fact that all seven of the House Republicans from Georgia opposed the measure.

Chambliss’ Farm Bill credentials are a mixed blessing in Georgia, since many conservatives are opposed to the subsidies he protects at a time of high food prices. When he next worked with Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) on a bipartisan energy policy, it also irritated some on the right.

“This is all about Chambliss, not Martin,” says Emory University’s Merle Black, a longtime observer of Southern politics. “If he hadn’t voted for the bailout, he would be sailing through.”

At one level, the senator embodies the tension for Southern Republicans as they try to govern from Big- Business, Chamber of Commerce positions while holding onto their more conservative, more populist base.

“He’s trying to balance between where his money comes from and where his votes come from,” says Black. Republican Jim Broyhill famously lost in North Carolina in the ‘80s for the same reasons. Chambliss is no Broyhill, the heir to a furniture fortune, but the financial meltdown is now so all encompassing that it magnifies the distrust of anyone in the senator’s position.

Add in the attacks by national Democratic ads, and the politics seems to come full circle.

Chambliss is accused of taking $2.5 million in Wall Street political donations and then supporting the bailout, a televised attack line funded as an independent expenditure by the DSCC. Technically, under campaign rules, the spot is not cleared in advance by the DSCC’s chairman, Sen. Charles Schumer. But Schumer is himself a New York Democrat, very close to Wall Street money men and an early supporter of the Treasury bill.

“It shows they have no compunction. The truth doesn’t make any difference to them,” Chambliss says.
“I’d like to check his FEC [Federal Election Commission] report,” he says of Schumer’s own campaign receipts. “I don’t know where he got $2.5 million from.”

Chambliss’ House career included a period when redistricting forced him to compete for black votes; that experience could now be an asset outside Atlanta. His work on Savannah harbor dredging is expected to win him support there from the longshoreman’s union, with its large black membership. And he has nurtured ties to black clergy in the Macon area.

Even now, the incumbent is still below 50 percent in his own polls, but “Martin is at a ceiling,” he says. “What we’ve got to do is get independent votes. The base is gradually coming back.”

That is, unless it opts to punish him first by forcing a runoff.

Janett_Reno · 10-31-2008, 05:21 PM

McCain Will Campaign in Arizona
The Daily Courier reports Sen. John McCain will be campaigning in his home state of Arizona on Monday, the day before Election Day.

Recent polls have shown McCain's lead dwindling to single digits in Arizona.

Of course, Sen. Barack Obama will be in his home state tonight.

Research 2000: Arizona is Very Tight
A new Research 2000 poll in Arizona shows Sen. John McCain beating out Sen. Barack Obama by just one point in his home state, 48% to 47%.

Among the 17% of the sample that actually voted early, Obama leads McCain, 54% to 42%.

SurveyUSA: Obama Blow Out in New Hampshire
Though New Hampshire was expected to be a 2008 battleground, a new SurveyUSA poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 11 points, 53% to 42%.

If that result holds on Election Day, it would be a larger share of the presidential vote than the Granite State has given any Democrat since Lyndon Johnson's landslide in 1964.

Obama Expands Ad Buy to New States
Two interesting items from a conference call with Obama campaign manager David Plouffe:

1. The Obama campaign will add Georgia, North Dakota and Arizona to its final ad buy of the election, suggesting those traditionally Republican states are now competitive.

2. The races in Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and New Mexico are already nearly half over since so many people have voted early.

Loyola Poll: McCain Barely Leads in Lousiana
A new WWL-TV poll in Lousiana shows Sen. John McCain just edging Sen. Barack Obama, 43% to 40%.

The survey, conducted by Loyola University, has a margin of error of 4.5 points.

Said pollster Ed Renwick: "It's closer than I thought it would be. That's because they'll probably be people who don't usually vote, who don't vote often, or weren't registered to vote until recently. Those people would not be heavy McCain voters. They would be Obama voters."

InsiderAdvantage: Close Races in North Carolina, Missouri
New InsiderAdvantage polls show Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain "are evenly matched in the swing states of North Carolina and Missouri, though Obama is strongly outpacing McCain in two of those states' crucial battleground counties."

North Carolina: Obama 48%, McCain 48%

Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 47%

"McCain's ability to break even against Obama in these two states, despite the Democrat's strong performance in suburban and urban areas suggests that the Arizona senator is drawing strong support from the less densely populated areas in these states."

PPP Poll: Obama Way Ahead in Colorado
Public Policy Polling released a new wave of polls late last night.

Highlights: Sen. Barack Obama holds a double-digit lead in Colorado, but Sen. John McCain looks likely to win handily in West Virginia despite indications the race was more competitive there.

Colorado: Obama 54%, McCain 44%

Michigan: Obama 55%, McCain 42%

Minnesota: Obama 57%, McCain 41%

New Mexico: Obama 58%, McCain 41%

Oregon: Obama 57%, McCain 42%

West Virginia: McCain 55%, Obama 42%

Palin Drags Down McCain
The New York Times/CBS News poll released last night shows "a growing number of voters" have concluded that Gov. Sarah Palin "is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign."

"All told, 59% of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month."

Meanwhile, the Huffington Post has audio of former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger -- a strong McCain backer -- saying "of course" she's not ready to be president if needed.

Janett_Reno · 10-31-2008, 05:57 PM

One more thing on the Chambliss race. This race in the senate, Lizzy Dole race and Coleman up in MN will be very interesting if the dems get close or make 60. Stevens i feel is sunk after being convicted of 7 counts. I also feel the dem has and will win OR. Those two are done deals i feel. Here is an interesting article on the GA senate race....

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...in-ga-sen.html

Are the Polls Lowballing Jim Martin (GA-Sen)?

Very quick observation about Georgia's senate race, which along with California's Proposition 8, may be the thing to watch on Election Night in the event of an Obama blowout. The polls, from what I can tell, are showing a fairly high undecided vote among the African-American population. Rasmussen's most recent poll, which had Saxby Chambliss up by two, shows that 12 percent of black voters are undecided in the senate race. Were those voters to split 4:1 to Jim Martin, that would be worth a net of around 2 points to him, making the race a tie. SurveyUSA, likewise, shows a higher rate of undecideds among black voters (7%) than among whites (3%).

Related thought: it's very difficult to imagine what a Chambliss-Obama voter looks like. It's pretty easy to imagine what a McCain-Martin voter looks like. So if the Georgia polls have Obama down by 4 or 5 points, but Martin down by 2 or 3 points (as they do), something doesn't quite seem right; I'd think the gap should be a bit wider.

Basically, I think this race is a true toss-up rather than a Lean R. African-American voters might be unfamiliar with Jim Martin, who didn't become the nominee until August, but the 'D' beside his name is worth a lot.

Same dynamics may hold to some extent in Roger Wicker's seat in Mississippi, although Wicker is definitely the favorite in that race.

Janett_Reno · 10-31-2008, 06:56 PM

Let me give you the road to 60 for everyone to think about and make predictions.

60-40 Senate majority is the Democrats' target in Tuesday's election.

It stands now 51 seats under their control(dems), including two occupied by independents but i count Lieberman as an it or a republican. I wish he would change parties. The dems are going to win Virginia(Warner), New Mexico(Udall) and Colorado(Udall). Now i will break this down more, 3 republicans retired from all three of those seats and it is no questions democrats are winning those three. That brings the democrats to 54.

Ted Stevens of Alaska, the longest-serving Republican senator in history who was convicted earlier this week on seven corruption counts. I predict him to lose and Begich to win in Alaska, a very deep red state. Now i put the count at 55.

Sen Lizzy Dole of North Carolina, i predict is going down. I think Hagan wins in NC. Dole was one of the biggest rubber stamps W had. Now i put the count at 56.

John Sununu of New Hampshire is going to lose. Shaheen is going to win in NH as Obama is breaking away in NH and Shaheen has ran strong and ahead this whole race. Now i put the count at 57.

Gordon Smith of Oregon i predict will lose but he is trying to tell the people to have mercy on him as he is really a democrat and just as republican beside his name. His ads have alot of dems in it and it is a close race. The democrats have really targeted OR and really pushing Merkley. Merkley is usually polling from 3 to 7 ahead normally. Remember an Obama blow out, elects more democrats. That is why a blow out is important. The magic number is 60. I feel Merkley will win this race as the dems have sunk alot of money here and this one they wanted bad and yes i feel they got it. Now i have the count at 58.

Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and this one is a real barn burner and the democrat here, Martin, was not suppose to have no chance in this deep red state. But as you can see i have been laying down what is going on down in GA and again this goes back to Chambliss swift boating Max Cleland and him getting elected, to him votting for the bail out but at the time, Chambliss they thought was safe in deep red GA, so they let him vote for the bail out. They never thought his senate seat was in play. Now the huge early vote that has people in line 8 to 10 hours today, to get to vote. Huge Obama turn out and now Chambliss is running scarred like Lizzy. Lizzy is already in panic mode. All Cham has to do is turn his tv on and see people lined up down the block wanting to vote in the bigger cities and waiting 8 hours. He knows R by his name smells bad. It is showing Chambliss up 2 to 7 points but some feel Martin is being low balled in the polls. I just can't call this race. This would be huge if the dems pick up this seat and yes it is very possible. GA is comming out to vote. It's a deep red state but the voters are seeing alot of red rage also and votting against red. You make the call on this state. I can't but if i was Gore, Bill, Hillary, Biden, Obama, and others. Even Max, i would be on the trail in GA. Not only for the president but i would target this senate seat and push Chambliss out. Those heavy hitting names i just mentioned, if they would come in GA and stand up and go all out for Martin, i feel they could put him over. If they don't i am not sure Martin wins. I am still at 58.

Roger Wicker of Mississippi vs Musgrove. Big turn out for Obama does help Musgrove but McCain should win MS by 10% or so and Wicker is polling good here. It is possible for Musgrove but looks more and more doubtful. I would have to count this one, republican and Wicker. Then again, a blow out for Obama, weird things could happen. I am still at 58.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky looks more and more safe but still has no room for error. Him out stumping for the gov in KY, got the gov killed and put a dem gov in. McConnell stock has went down the tubes alot since W and Chains have. When you speak of this adm you think of Rummy and Cheney on top, then W is 3rd in rank, McConnell and even throw SmellCroft in there somewhere also. The two biggest puppets of the neocons was W but followed very close by Mitchie Poo. Now you know who was running the country. Lunsford is not out here and down around 5 to 7. I feel the democrats didn't target KY enough because they felt Mitch was an untouchable but what they forgot was neocons are not favorites around the country now. Mitch took it on the chin with the Iraq war from alot of Kentuckians. Here again, i can't give this to the dems. I am not saying it isn't possible but i feel time is running out and Mitch has just enough to "probably" stay in. It might have been his race where the gop borrowed 5 mill to run ads to keep him in as the dems was closing in on him. This was just here lately. Just buzz China up and ask for another 5 mill. I am still at 58.

Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, faces a serious challenge but she is going to win her dem seat. Holding off Kennedy and i think he use to be a democrat and i am not sure if and where he fits into the Kennedy clan. Republicans spent heavy here for this seat and it won't pay off. mary will win. Still at 58.

Minnesota, where Democrat Al Franken, and Norm Coleman are locked in a knock down drag out could go either way. It is close depending what poll you believe, no telling who is in the lead. But never forget, Obama turn out. Very important, to just turn the vote out. I'll give this to Franken but again it can go either way and this puts the democrats at 59.

So my final count i pick is 59 or 60. I just can't pick the Chambliss race. I could also be wrong on Franken/Coleman. I feel pretty good about my other picks. Over the weekend, the dems need to pound KY, MN, and GA on these senate races. Keep pressure on Lizzy but i feel she is beat. If you pinned me down, i would say 59 but i can see 60. 61 if they could boot Mitch.

The democrats get to 58 or 59 seats, on a lot of issues they will be able to override a senate filibuster, because they seem to be able to pick off a few Republicans on a lot of the particular issues. This is another reason they have probably walked on egg shells with Joe "McCain" Lieberman. Not me, i would be ok if he officially joined the cons.

Janett_Reno · 10-31-2008, 07:27 PM

Couple races i did not mention because i feel they are safe republican.

Graham is going to beat Conley in SC.

Cornyn i also feel will beat Noriega in TX. It could be closer than maybe what i think and maybe some miracle Noriega has a chance but Cornyn is probably going to be hard to beat in TX. I would sure go out and vote and see where it goes.

Collins is going to beat Allen in Maine. This is one the dems thought they had a shot at but knew it would be a tough race. Collins has ran strong all the way through. Noriega has the better shot at any of these three races but i feel they are pretty says for the reps. It is other races that the dems or reps are really winning big i did not mention. I feel this covers most all that is in play and pretty close and also has an effect on the magic "60" number. I'll be back on Saturday to report. What a beautiful day Tuesday will be.

Silk Smoov · 10-31-2008, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

Obama i feel, will not, wreck his country to better his party like this adm did. Plus i feel he will even have some reps in his adm.

This is the part I have been looking at. I truly believe "IF" (and I do mean "IF") Obama wins the election he will fill his administration with the best people from both parties. I think this is exactly what we need.

But I say again "IF". I have a hard time believing the polls and I dont see Obama winning this election. If he does it will be the closest election ever, and Florida will once again decide who the winner is..

Flacolaco · 11-01-2008, 01:13 AM

You guys are crazy. This is going to be a murder on Tuesday. The image perpetuated by the media of W and the republicans for the last 8 years, coupled with Barack's flawless ability to read a teleprompter and be exceedingly charismatic; and a convenient economic downturn which can be attributed to the liberal idea that everyone is entitled to own a house, was the perfect storm. Obama will register well over 300 electoral college votes on Tuesday and that will be that.

I really don't know why you guys are sand bagging like that.

Btw, Zogby is going to release a poll tomorrow that has McCain polling +1 over Obama nationally...not that that means a damn thing.

mary · 11-01-2008, 02:05 PM

Honestly, I don't find it inconceivable that McCain could carry all the swing states that are left...the polls in those states are really tight and for the most part, represent statistical ties (or near ties).

Yes, I think the most likely scenario is that Obama will win. But an upset really wouldn't surprise me that much.

Janett_Reno · 11-01-2008, 08:14 PM

Cheney Endorses McCain

Ron Reagan endorses Barack Obama

Former Reagan adviser, Ken Duberstein, endorses Obama

Poll: Obama Has Banked Big Lead In Early Vote

With early voting now coming to an end, a new CBS poll finds that Barack Obama has already banked a massive lead going into Election Day, which John McCain will have a tough job overcoming.

The numbers: Among the subset of early voters, Obama has built up a lead of 57%-38%. Among all likely voters, including both the early vote and those people who haven't gone yet, it's 54%-41%.

With the common estimate being that roughly one third of all ballots cast this year will be early votes, this means McCain would have to win the the remaining votes on Election Day by a margin of nearly ten points just to eke out a narrow win in the overall popular vote.

It's possible for McCain to do this -- and the internals show that the early voters are disproportionately self-identified Democrats -- but it's definitely a tough job.

mary · 11-02-2008, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mary

Honestly, I don't find it inconceivable that McCain could carry all the swing states that are left...the polls in those states are really tight and for the most part, represent statistical ties (or near ties).

Yes, I think the most likely scenario is that Obama will win. But an upset really wouldn't surprise me that much.

Obama's lead is down to single digits in Pennsylvania. Its 9 points, but it still progress for McCain.

Janett_Reno · 11-02-2008, 02:29 PM

McCain is making headway in PA but Kerry, Gore and maybe even Clinton just won PA by 3 points or so. I know it was close with Gore, Kerry and Obama had double digit leads in PA and this hasn't been done in many, many years and PA was expected like a 2 to 5 point win for Obama. McCain has closed in PA. I think McCain will lose in a landslide or if he can get alot of these close states to go McCain, he could lose in a closer race. No, i don't think McCain can win. Romney would have helped him in the states he needed blue, Wi, MI, MN, Oh, Pa, In, maybe NC and Fl. Romney might have helped some out west in which Palin has helped some in west states.

Bush had a 2 or 3 point lead on Gore and Kerry in last cnn poll. Before those elections and Bush just did win. Obama has like a 6 to 8 point lead. I think this last poll today was 6 or 7 today. It is to much for McCain to overcome. He won't do it.

Look at AR, was big for McCain and even here, Obama is closing. If Mac could win PA and VA, then he could maybe have a shot but he is not holding OH. Out in CO and NV looks bad for him. I think Obama will win VA and this is going to really hurt McCain and even the gopnow and for years to come.

Arkansas 44% 51% Oct 28 Oct 31 ARG
Florida 47% 45% Oct 29 Oct 30 Mason-Dixon
Florida 47% 47% Oct 29 Oct 30 Datamar
Florida 50% 46% Oct 29 Oct 31 ARG
Iowa 54% 37% Oct 28 Oct 31 Selzer
Indiana 48% 48% Oct 28 Oct 31 ARG
Michigan 53% 37% Oct 28 Oct 28 Selzer
New Mexico 52% 45% Oct 29 Oct 31 SurveyUSA
Ohio 57% 41% Oct 12 Oct 23 Ohio U.
Pennsylvania 51% 45% Oct 29 Oct 31 ARG
Pennsylvania 51% 47% Oct 30 Oct 30 Rasmussen
Pennsylvania 52% 45% Oct 28 Nov 01 Muhlenberg Coll.
Virginia 47% 44% Oct 29 Oct 30 Mason-Dixon
Wisconsin 52% 42% Oct 21 Oct 28 U. of Wisconsin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This comes from Dailykos and they are a big time democrats. So how true this next article is, not sure but early votting looks big and good for Obama. Bush/Cheney is hurting McCain bad and Palin did not help. People are out in record numbers and if i am guessing it is not record voters for more of the same. I figure early voters and urn out favor Obama, not McCain.....

COLORADO

Early voting is through the roof in Colorado - fully 68.8 percent of all ballots cast in 2004. 37.7% of ballots were requested by Democrats, 35.9% by Republicans.

FLORIDA

More than 3.75 million people have voted early in Florida, and things look good for Democrats:

But so far this year, early-voting Democrats are outnumbering Republicans at those sites by more than 20 percentage points, and a WSVN–Suffolk University poll has Barack Obama leading over John McCain 60% to 40% among early voters.

In 2004, 36% of votes cast were early or absentee votes. Of those, 40.7% were by registered Democrats, 43.5% by Republicans.

This year, early voting numbers are even higher - 46.9% of the total 2004 vote - and Dems exceed Republicans; 45.6% of early voters are Dems, 37.8% are Republicans.

That bodes extremely well for Barack Obama's chances at taking Florida's 27 electoral votes, and it oughta help House candidates Alan Grayson (FL-08), Christine Jennings (FL-13), Annette Taddeo (FL-18), Raul Martinez (FL-21), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) and Joe Garcia (FL-25).

GEORGIA

Two million people, a record, cast early ballots in Georgia. That's 60% of the total 2004 vote.

Blacks comprise 35% of Georgia early voters, and women 56%, suggesting that as of right now, Barack Obama and Jim Martin are winning big.

NEVADA

With more than 600,000 Nevadans already having voted,

The early voting in advance of Election Day has been so heavy that Secretary of State Ross Miller increased his total turnout prediction from about 1 million to 1.1 million voters. That lowers the early-absentee balloting percentage — but it's still at 56 percent of the revised total of expected voters.

In Clark County, Democratic early voting outstrips Republican by 52% to 31%, while in traditionally Republican Washoe County (where just a couple of weeks ago, Democratic registration topped Republicans for the first time since 1978), 47% of early voters are Democrats to 35% Republicans.

Being registered to a party is no guarantee you'll vote for all its candidates, of course, but the trend is good.

Janett_Reno · 11-02-2008, 02:41 PM

Wheh i mentioned landslide, not PA but the election itself. I feel Obama will win PA but will be fairly close. PA usually is. Staying in PA, NH, VA and Nc and some in FL, he is letting states go like CO, NV and maybe OH.

Obama's ground game is one of the best i ever saw. He made McCain have to defend in way to many red states. He didn't have this adm to help him as they were a drag to him. He can't overcome the odds. The final tally will be how many senator seats does the dems pick up? How far does the dems go into the south and for how many years does this last in the south? Does Obama win in a sort of close race or is it a landslide?

mary · 11-02-2008, 04:58 PM

McCain has also gained a few points in New Mexico and Missouri.