ESPN Insider - 3/31/06 'Why the Sonics have the worst defense ever'

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Failure to stop: Why Sonics have worst defense ever

By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

It wasn't supposed to be like this in Seattle. Coming off a 52-win season that saw the SuperSonics give the eventual champion Spurs all the Texans could handle in the second round, the Sonics were looking forward to continuing their winning ways in 2005-06.

Yes, they were a poor defensive team, but they could score in bunches. Thanks to their potent 3-point shooting and ferocious offensive rebounding, the 2004-05 Sonics had the NBA's third-most efficient offense. Thus, even with a defense that ranked a mere 25th out of the league's 30 teams in defensive efficiency (my measure of a team's points allowed per 100 opponent possessions), the Sonics scored enough to win on most nights.

This year, that equation changed in a major way. The Sonics still had the great offense. Through Wednesday's games, the Sonics ranked fourth in the NBA in offensive efficiency and were just a hair behind Detroit for third, which would be a repeat of last year's performance.

Defensively, however, things went from bad to worse. Or worst, I should say. Not as in "worst in the NBA," although that certainly applies. No, I mean worst as in worst defense ever.

You heard me.

Worst.

Defense.

Ever.

In the 33 years since the NBA has been tracking turnovers (thus making it possible to track teams on a per-possession basis), none has ever been as bad, relative to the league, as this year's Sonics. Nobody has even been close to this bad. Seattle's 112.4 defensive efficiency mark is more than nine points worse than the league average of 103.2.

The nearest any team has come to the Sonics' defensive ineptitude came in the 1998-99 season, when both the Clippers and Nuggets set new standards of ineptitude. The Clips were 7.8 points worse than the league norm, while the Nuggets were 7.6 worse.

Defensive Efficiency, All-Time Worst Teams, 1973-74 to 2005-06 (Thru March 30, 2006)
TEAM SEASON DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY LEAGUE AVERAGE DIFFERENCE
Seattle 2005-06 112.4 103.2 -9.2
L.A. Clippers 1998-99 107.0 99.2 -7.8
Denver 1998-99 106.8 99.2 -7.6
Dallas 1992-93 106.8 99.2 -7.5
Orlando 2003-04 108.3 100.8 -7.5

But the Clippers' mark was set in a 50-game season, thanks to the 1998-99 lockout. In an 82-game NBA season, the all-time worst belongs to the 1992-93 Dallas Mavericks, who were 7.5 points worse than the league norm. So the Sonics aren't just breaking the 82-game record here, they're destroying it by more than 20 percent. Basically, they're the Wilt Chamberlains of bad defense.

Not only are the Sonics the worst ever, they've managed to be the worst under two different coaches. Taking top honors is Bob Weiss, who took the reins for the first 30 games and presided over a traveshamockery of a defense. Through 30 games, Seattle's defensive efficiency mark stood at 112.7, while the league average was 102.4 -- putting the Sonics a whopping 10.3 points worse than the league.

As the next chart shows, Seattle was awful under Weiss in three very important categories.

First and foremost was field-goal percentage defense, with opponents hitting at nearly a 50 percent clip. But looking at only field-goal percentage actually minimized Seattle's problems. The Sonics also fouled with wild abandon and gave up a ton of 3-pointers, so their opponents' true shooting percentage (what their percentage would be if we adjusted for free throws and 3-pointers) was an exorbitant 59.0 percent, six points worse than the league average.

In fact, the difference between Seattle and the next-worst team in that stretch (Toronto) was nearly as great as the difference between Toronto and the league average. In plain English, that means they were twice as bad as even the next-worst team.

Sonics' Defense Under Weiss and Hill (Thru March 30, 2006)
CATEGORY UNDER WEISS UNDER HILL
Defensive Efficiency 112.7 112.2
League Average 102.4 103.8
Sonics vs. League Average -10.3 -8.4

Opponent FG Percentage 49.8 48.7
League Average FG Percentage 44.9 45.6
Sonics vs. League Average -4.9 -3.1

Opponent True Shooting Percentage 59.0 56.4
League Average True Shooting Percentage 53.0 53.7
Sonics vs. League Average -6.0 -2.7

Opponent FTA/FGA .385 .326
Win-Loss Record 13-17 16-25

Under new coach Bob Hill, things have improved a bit.

Under Hill, the numbers show Seattle still would be the worst defense ever, but not far and away the worst. While scoring around the league has gone up over the past 40 games to an average efficiency of 103.8, Seattle's mark improved to 112.2 in 40 games under Hill. So the difference of only 8.4 points, while still terrible, is a two-point improvement over Weiss. (If you're wondering, it's perfectly normal for the league average in offensive/defensive efficiency -- i.e. scoring -- to rise as the season goes on.)

Looking at some of the other metrics (see chart), it's easy to see how the Sonics have improved. First, they've stopped fouling so much. Seattle's ratio of opponent free-throw attempts to field-goal attempts was the worst in the league under Weiss, but is slightly below the league average in the Hill era. Mad hackers such as Reggie Evans and Danny Fortson have played very little under Hill, creating much of the drop. Seattle also has tightened up its field-goal defense. Its opponents are hitting at only a 48.7 percent clip under Hill, even though percentages around the league rose during that time.

As a result, look at what's happened to their opponents' TS percentage -- it's almost respectable now. The Sonics have cut the distance between themselves and the league average in half under Hill, the main reason for the team's overall two-point improvement in defensive efficiency relative to the league.

There's reason to think those numbers will improve further. At the trade deadline, Seattle traded two of its worst defensive players, forward Vladimir Radmanovic and guard Ronald Murray, as well as Evans, and got a major upgrade in Earl Watson. He's one of the best defensive guards in basketball, and in the few minutes he's played thus far as a Sonic, Seattle's defensive numbers have improved sharply. Additionally, rookie center Johan Petro and soph Robert Swift (a rookie in terms of experience, if not technically) will never be worse than they were at the start of this season.

That said, those numbers aren't going to improve enough for Seattle to avoid an infamous spot in history. Over its final 12 games, Seattle would have to defend at or better than the league average in order to surpass the Clippers and be only the second-worst defensive team. To avoid being the worst in an 82-game season, they'd have to be about 2.4 points better than the average -- on par with a team like New Jersey or Chicago. That's a serious stretch considering it requires a heroic effort from this team just to hold opponents under 95 points -- something they've done only once since the All-Star break.

The Sonics are so good offensively that if the defense is merely bad, as in 2004-05, they're a playoff team. And it's easy to say they can't get any worse than they were this year. But looking ahead, one wonders if the defense can pass muster next season even with Watson, because it appears Seattle will be depending on most of the same players. Since Seattle's key offensive players -- Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Chris Wilcox and Luke Ridnour -- are also among its worst defensive players, it's hard to see how they can improve the defense substantially without negating the offensive part of the equation.

Regardless of Seattle's next steps, the book already has been written on this season. Everybody knows this is a poor defensive team, but what many did not know was the scale of the problem. So even though it was a forgettable year in Seattle, tip your hat to these Sonics and keep them in your fond memories. Because when it comes to bad defense, nobody's ever done it better.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. His book "Pro Basketball Forecast: 2005-06" is available at Amazon.com and Potomac Books. To e-mail him, click here.
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Chat with Chris Sheridan

Welcome to The Show! On Friday, ESPN.com's NBA reporter Chris Sheridan will log on to chat with you about the NBA season up to this point. Chris came to ESPN from the Associated Press where he spent the last 10 years as the lead NBA writer.

Sheridan's chat tips off at 1 p.m. ET on Friday so send in your questions now and join him right here for the answers.

Sheridan archives: Columns | Chats

SportsNation Buzzmaster: Hellooooooooo! Chris will be joining us shortly! Keep your NBA questions coming!

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: Greetings from New York, where I went on the Cold Pizza show today for the first time. They do it at a different studio from the one in Times Square where I've done ESPNews appearances, and they actually have a green room and makeup people. You know what they had to eat in that Green Room? You can't make this up: Warm Pizza.
We've got three weeks left before the season ends, so there's a lot to talk about. Off we go ...

Donny (Ridgefield, CT): Why does the league care about players wearing tights? It seems foolish to ban an article of clothing that actually can prevent players from injuries.

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: It's primarily because there are a lot of very important people in the league office on Fifth Avenue who think tights look stupid. It's really as simple as that. I think from the players' standpoint, there are a few guys who might legitimately derive some benefit from the tights, but there's probably a few other guys using it as a silent anti-authority statement (a questionable one in a fashion sense) to the league office after all the hubbub over the dress code earlier this season. There's still a sense of resentment among some players over that whole episode. Some guys just don't like David Stern telling them how to dress.

Jerome (LA): Do you see KG going to the Lakers this summer? KG needs a finisher and Kobe needs some inside play, plus the Lakers seem to have some piece: Odom, George, Bynum, Brown... What do you think?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: Here's my take on it: If KG wants to be traded, he'll go to Mr. Taylor, the owner, after the season and quietly make that request. But if you take KG at his word, and he keeps saying he's "Sota for Life," that's not going to happen. So if a Garnett trade doesn't happen, what will make him happy? I'm skeptical that bein reunited with Stephon Marbury will make them a better team, but it might just placate KG for another year, which is why it really might happen. The Knicks have to find somebody who will take Steph, and Minnesota is the only scenario that would make any sense for both teams.

Chris Fedail (Diamond Bar, CA): If you're Detroit, would you rather play Chicago or Phili?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: I really wouldn't care, because I'd know we'd take care of business in five games tops. Remember, I'm a Piston, so I'm as arrogant as I am confident.

Arthur (Silver Spring, MD): as a follow up question (to the tights query), can the league ban something because they think it looks "stupid"? I mean, what if I was an important person and I thought headbands looked stupid. Could I and more importantly should I be able to ban headbands?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: The league office believes shorts that hang below the knee look stupid, and that's why they enforce their rules with fines. There also are people in the league office who played with Slick Watts, and they think headbands look cool. Bottom line: It's their league, and they can make up the rules any way they want.

RK (motown): You see Flip Saunders playing guys like Dale Davis and Kelvin Cato off the bench for the playoffs??

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: I think you'll see more and more of Dale over the last 10 games. They're going to need him against Ilgauskas and Shaq, and Flip realizes he needs to dust Dale off. I don't see the same for Cato.

Mike, Houston TX: What are the chances that the overrated Ben Wallace does not re-sign this offseason with the Pistons?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: I spoke with Ben about it on Tuesday night. He's doing his deal without an agent, which has to mean he's going to stay in Detroit. If he was going to play the market, he's have an agent do it. He's more concerned about not having to pay an agent four percent of his contract at this point in his career.

TJ (South Jordan): If the Pistons lost 1 player from their starting lineup just before the playoffs could they compete?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: Not if it was Chauncey Billups. The Pistons told me at the trading deadline that they were willing to move Arroyo because they didn't think they'd win the title if Billups went down and Arroyo had to fill in. It'd be tough to overcome the loss of 'Sheed, too, but McDyess could step in.

JY (T dot): raps get the first pick- who do they take? Do you trade down for a veteran and a latter lottery pick?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: If they could package the No. 1 pick with Araujo for a lower pick and a center, I think they might do it. They'll have some cap room this summer, but the big man picking are slim beyond Nazr Mohammed and Joel Przybilla. By the way, check the site next Wednesday for an update to the Top 25 Free Agents list, as well as for a story chronicling the roots of the salary cap mess the New York Knicks have put themselves in.

Jason (New Orleans): Chris, my Hornets were overachieving so much this year and looked to be possibly headed to the playoffs. What has happened recently as they havelost almost 15 straight games?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: They did not go through the normal ups and downs that most NBA teams go through during a normal season. They were on a huge up for so long, buoyed by their fans in Okla City, that when they hit a small slide they couldn't deal with it and it turned into a huge slide. They also needed to do something at the shooting guard position, and when the deal for Brent Barry fell through the trade deadline had passed and their options were dried up.

WTFGlenn, GR, MI: Chris, love your work. Question, when did you start losing your hair?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: A year ago when I had a second child. People told me having two was like having six, and they were right. I've got the Rick Carlisle look going now.

Rex (Santa Monica, CA): Do you think Kwame has finally cleaned up his act?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: Not sure what you mean by "cleaned up his act," but I think he's responded to Phil Jackson's and Kobe Bryant's particular brands of prodding. Kwame's ego took a big bruising during his first two years playing with Michael Jordan, who was merciless on him. With Kobe and Phil, it's a different kind of prodding, and it's working of late. They need Kwame to keep it up if they want to push a first-round series to seven games, much less advance.

Jason (Ida Grove, Iowa): How many years until you see Orlando being a contender?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: It'll be a quick turnaround, and they should be contending by this time two years from now as long as they spend their free agency money wisely in the summer of 2007. They'll use next year as a transition year, then decide if they want to tweak their young core of Howard, Nelson and Darko or simply add to it. With Grant Hill's salary coming off the cap, they'll be able to offer a max contract in the summer of '07 if they so choose.

Bob/NJ: Christ, Do you see the NETS as a contender this Year?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: Lots of Nets questions in there. Sorry it took a while to get to one. The short answer, Bob, is that of course they're a contender. The bigger question is whether they're good enough to beat Miami or Detroit on the road in a Game 7. I don't think they are.

Brock (Indianapolis): What moves do you see the Pacers making in the offseason?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: I'll predicate this by saying they could still be a dangerous team in the playoffs, but if they aren't, I think they'll move Tinsley and listen to offers for O'Neal. I'll be interested to hear what Larry Bird has to say the day after the season ends, because I know he was a big Artest guy and I'm wondering whether he'll admit to any second thoughts about the decision to trade him.

Jack (NYC): Will the Sixers blow it? And if so, can the C's be the team to sneak by them (only three games out)?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: With the way the Sixers have been playing, they're capable of getting blown out by the Knicks tonight. And that's about as bad as it gets.

Keyan(Rockville): Hey Chris, Can Lebron finally get some MVP love? His team is 42-29, won 6 straight, he is putting up 31 7 and 7 on 50% FG shooting, hes making big plays at the end of the game and his second best player hasnt played this year! Nash and Wade? Look at their supportive casts, give me a break it shouldnt be close. Right?

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: As I've been saying, the MVP race is more wide open than people think, and I think this will be one of those rare years when what a player does over his final 12 games will weigh extra heavily in the voting. You're right about one thing, though: LeBron hasn't been mentioned enough in MVP discussions, but a lot of that is because his team runs so hot and cold.

SportsNation Chris Sheridan: That's all the time I have today, folks. We'll chat again in two weeks. I'll be overseas next Friday for a wedding, trying to find Mavs-Spurs on a satellite dish.