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Old 03-28-2022, 05:16 PM   #81
mavErika
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Not sure #3 is in the cards. I anticipate Warriors will go 3-4. To match the record we’d have to go 6-1

Lakers (1-1)
Cavs (0-1)
Wizards (0-1)
Bucks (0-1)
Pistons (1-0)
Blazers (2-0)
Spurs (3-0)

If we continue the trend, then it looks like we’ll go either 4-3 or 3-4 so dropping back to 5 is an option. That’s why we play, though.
I think you have the tie-breaker wrong? If the Mavs make up two games on the steph-less warriors then they are golden.

And they absolutely should, looking at that remaining schedule. SOS is one thing and, as you have noted more than once, hugely in our favor. But not only that, of these seven teams only three or four have anything to play for* (SA might be locked in or out of the play-in it by the time the regular season finale rolls around) AND, as has also been noted, two of these three are just in a bad way rn. And fittingly those two are the the next two on the schedule.

Even though their play over these last few games hasn't provided huge confidence in going 6-1 or 5-2 against any opponent, the Mavs should just feast on that schedule. And they should not let anything dsistract them from doing so, the benefits of that #3 seed are so big that I almost can't imagine them pissing it away in classic mid season mavs fashion.
Otoh, any one of these teams can beat us if the shooting is as bad as it has been at times lately. And, of course, this, to me, looks so clear-cut on paper that I cannot not brace myself for when it all blows up spectacularly as the Wiz and/or Pistons crush us.

*Compare that to GS; where only SAC is out of the race completely (also note the dates - but we have 3 B2Bs left ourselves, which is a bit worrisome):

Tue, Mar 29
@Memphis
Thu, Mar 31
vsPhoenix
Sun, Apr 3
vsUtah
Mon, Apr 4
@Sacramento
Fri, Apr 8
vsLos Angeles
Sat, Apr 9
@San Antonio
Sun, Apr 10
@New Orleans

Although they have not looked great lately and sth like 3-4 seems like a fair guess for them, it wouldn't shock me to see them pull it together and go 4-3 or 5-2 and stop us from climbing further in the standings that way.

To conclude, my best guess is also the ideal (? - I certainly think so) scenario where the Mavs end up in the 3-seed, avoid the Suns in Round 2, and still play the Jazz in Rd 1, who fall back to #6. The Lakers might have fallen out of the play-in, regardless of LeBron's ankle. Their remaining schedule is just brutal (2 sets of B2B2Bs, probably not the favorite against anyone but OKC and maybe their re-match with NO) and the Spurs have several good opportunities to pick up some Ws.

EDIT: actually, DON'T look too closely at dates and b2bs and so on. It all got mixed quite up a bit by looking at the schedules from my GMT+1 perspective. For example, we have two sets of b2bs left, not three.

Last edited by mavErika; 03-28-2022 at 05:29 PM.
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Old 03-28-2022, 06:04 PM   #82
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I think you have the tie-breaker wrong? If the Mavs make up two games on the steph-less warriors then they are golden.
Yeah I was wrong about 3-4 and 6-1. Here is the list:

Combos that get us tied with Warriors
Warriors 1-6 / Mavs 3-4 (unlikely for the Warriors, but possible)
Warriors 2-5 / Mavs 4-3 (possible for both teams, but Warriors would)
Warriors 3-4 / Mavs 5-2 (most likely for Warriors because of their brutal record)
Warriors 4-3 / Mavs 6-1 (definitely possible if Warriors have some luck or Steph comes back before the end)
Warriors 5-2 / Mavs 7-0 (not likely for either the Warriors or Mavs.)
(If Warriors go 6-1 or 7-0, then there's nothing we can do)

Mavs schedule
Lakers -- Mavs are 1-1 against them, but Lakers always get homecourt advantage from refs wherever they play. They always have someone that absolutely demolishes us. We're also on 1NB2B. LeBron being out would definitely help.

Cavs - Mavs are 0-1 against them this year, but the one loss was our last major slump in November. Cavs are struggling big lately. Still, it's not a game I'd wager a win on with only 20 hours for the Mavs to shower, get on the plane, and get to Cleveland. That's going to be a brutal game.

Wizards - Mavs are 0-1 against the Wiz this year, but again that was an early loss. I don't think they are particularly good, but it's a late-season game for us that will be hard to get up for while KP will probably want to have a big game. Wiz have won against the Lakers and Warriors recently so they are capable of winning games.

Bucks - Bucks demolished us last time and they are super good. The bucks are 10-3 and competing for first in the east. I'd say that this is a guaranteed loss, particularly with our recent funk.

Spurs/Blazers/Piston - not good teams, but Mavs have to take care of every game.

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Old 03-28-2022, 07:49 PM   #83
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Old 03-28-2022, 08:50 PM   #84
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Benching Kleber would be the best thing for his mindset right now, IMO. He needs to see someone else getting his mins to make him hungry again. With the lack of KP on the team, you think it never crossed his mind that he is guaranteed plenty of mins? He is the most fragile player on the team, total deer in the headlights in important times. Give him some splinters and make him hungry again and do it before the playoffs. I can't see him rounding back into form without manipulation.

I'm tired of the streaky mfs like Maxi and THJ ,where if they start missing shots, they then start missing rotations on D and generally look lost. Give Frank, Chriss and Bertans his mins for 2 games and give him about 10 mins to sort it out ans at least show high motor in the 1st game back. If he doesn't bring energy and assertiveness then plop that turd.
I'm not defending Maxi for his play but I do believe the Mavs should use him more as a roll man inside to help him get easy buckets as opposed to always being a spot up shooter.

He's struggling from outside but I've seen him get a few nice buckets inside as a roll man in PNR situations with Luka. Mavs should do more of that IMO to get him going.

Outside of that I'd prefer Chriss at C as Opposed to Bertans off the bench
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Old 03-29-2022, 08:04 AM   #85
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I'm not defending Maxi for his play but I do believe the Mavs should use him more as a roll man inside to help him get easy buckets as opposed to always being a spot up shooter.

He's struggling from outside but I've seen him get a few nice buckets inside as a roll man in PNR situations with Luka. Mavs should do more of that IMO to get him going.

Outside of that I'd prefer Chriss at C as Opposed to Bertans off the bench
Agreed that he should be in PnR more than pNp or 90% spot up shooter. The problem is 2 times a game, he runs out of positiin and it ends up being a turnover by Luka trying to get him the ball under the rim. He will roll into the paint and then tuck behind a smaller help defender or try to go opposite side to thr corner. DP has recently gotten pretty good at rolling and sealing the help defender then getting layups, fouled or Luka finds the corner guy thst the help defender cant recover to in time.

I dont believe in Maxi at all. When he's hitting 3s and doing his "call me" bit it's icing on the cake. Relying on him to play a big role is a mistake because he doesnt have the mental fortitude to push through struggles and grind out other ways to be effective.

Maxi and THJ are guys i hope we could move this offseason. Idc if both of them score 30 on us every time we play against them.
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Last edited by SMC0007; 03-29-2022 at 08:05 AM.
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