Official Playoff Seeding Watch - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

EricaLubarsky · 03-28-2022, 09:35 PM

Combos that get us tied with Warriors
Warriors 1-6 / Mavs 3-4 (unlikely for the Warriors, but possible)
Warriors 2-5 / Mavs 4-3 (possible for both teams, but Warriors would)
Warriors 3-4 / Mavs 5-2 (most likely for Warriors because of their brutal record)
Warriors 4-3 / Mavs 6-1 (definitely possible if Warriors have some luck or Steph comes back before the end)
Warriors 5-2 / Mavs 7-0 (not likely for either the Warriors or Mavs.)
(If Warriors go 6-1 or 7-0, then there's nothing we can do)

Mavs schedule
Lakers -- Mavs are 1-1 against them, but Lakers always get homecourt advantage from refs wherever they play. They always have someone that absolutely demolishes us. We're also on 1NB2B. LeBron being out would definitely help.

Cavs - Mavs are 0-1 against them this year, but the one loss was our last major slump in November. Cavs are struggling big lately. Still, it's not a game I'd wager a win on with only 20 hours for the Mavs to shower, get on the plane, and get to Cleveland. That's going to be a brutal game.

Wizards - Mavs are 0-1 against the Wiz this year, but again that was an early loss. I don't think they are particularly good, but it's a late-season game for us that will be hard to get up for while KP will probably want to have a big game. Wiz have won against the Lakers and Warriors recently so they are capable of winning games.

Bucks - Bucks demolished us last time and they are super good. The bucks are 10-3 and competing for first in the east. I'd say that this is a guaranteed loss, particularly with our recent funk.

Spurs/Blazers/Piston - not good teams, but Mavs have to take care of every game.

EricaLubarsky · 03-28-2022, 09:37 PM

WARRIORS LOSS UPDATE

Combos that get us tied with Warriors
Warriors 1-5 / Mavs 3-4 (unlikely for the Warriors, but possible)
Warriors 2-4 / Mavs 4-3 (possible for both teams, but Warriors would)
Warriors 3-3 / Mavs 5-2 (most likely for Warriors because of their brutal record)
Warriors 4-2 / Mavs 6-1 (definitely possible if Warriors have some luck or Steph comes back before the end)
Warriors 5-1 / Mavs 7-0 (not likely for either the Warriors or Mavs.)
(If Warriors go 6-0 from now on then there's nothing we can do)

FreshJive · 03-29-2022, 05:07 AM

Mavs win obviously

SMC0007 · 03-29-2022, 08:38 AM

Warriors have been over performing early on and its time to pay the piper. They need a hail mary

EricaLubarsky · 03-29-2022, 09:05 AM

Tonight’s game is dangerous. Lakers are motivated. If they lose, they officially drop out of the play-in.

Then again, if we win, that is our reward

EricaLubarsky · 03-30-2022, 11:14 AM

Warriors +1
MAVS
Jazz -2 (have tiebreaker on Nugs)
Nugs -2
Wolves -4

EricaLubarsky · 03-30-2022, 11:16 AM

Combos that get us tied with Warriors and thus 3rd
Warriors 1-5 / Mavs 2-4 (unlikely for the Warriors, but possible)
Warriors 2-4 / Mavs 3-3 (possible for both teams, but Warriors would)
Warriors 3-3 / Mavs 4-2 (most likely for Warriors because of their brutal record)
Warriors 4-2 / Mavs 5-1 (definitely possible if Warriors have some luck or Steph comes back before the end)
Warriors 5-1 / Mavs 6-0 (not likely for either the Warriors or Mavs.)
(If Warriors go 6-0 from now on then there's nothing we can do)

EricaLubarsky · 03-30-2022, 09:22 PM

Suns are absolutely murdering the Warriors

We may get 3 tonight

EricaLubarsky · 03-30-2022, 10:04 PM

I spoke too soon

Melonhead · 03-30-2022, 10:27 PM

So Denver jumped Utah tonight.

Warriors
Mavs
Nugs
Jazz

Would be hilarious if Mavs got 3 seed and still faced the jazz. Collision course with Utah

Thespiralgoeson · 03-30-2022, 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

So Denver jumped Utah tonight.

Warriors
Mavs
Nugs
Jazz

Would be hilarious if Mavs got 3 seed and still faced the jazz. Collision course with Utah

I'd be happy with that. I'd rather play Utah than Denver. Jokic could wreck us inside. Nobody on Utah's roster scares me half as much.

EricaLubarsky · 03-30-2022, 11:46 PM

Mavs are 3rd

MFFL · 03-30-2022, 11:47 PM

Watching the Warriors fall apart this season has been fun

EricaLubarsky · 03-30-2022, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

So Denver jumped Utah tonight.

Warriors
Mavs
Nugs
Jazz

Would be hilarious if Mavs got 3 seed and still faced the jazz. Collision course with Utah

It’s destiny

In 1985, Jazz were Detlef Schrempf’s first playoff series win
In 2001, Jazz were Dirk’s first playoff series win
In 2022, Luka - ???

It is decided by the Dallas Stars that with the rise of a white wunderkind, the Jazz as the whitest NBA fan base will be sacrificed to the Mavericks gods.

Scoobay · 03-31-2022, 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

It’s destiny

In 1985, Jazz were Detlef Schrempf’s first playoff series win
In 2001, Jazz were Dirk’s first playoff series win
In 2022, Luka - ???

It is decided by the Dallas Stars that with the rise of a white wunderkind, the Jazz as the whitest NBA fan base will be sacrificed to the Mavericks gods.

I think you missed the logic here. Clearly it’s not about Luka…
It’s about Maxi the rise of Maxi Kleber the next great German mav!
And speaking of German mavs, I think Uwe Blab was on that ‘85 team too lol

blessednegr0 · 03-31-2022, 01:13 AM

I just read something that we are not locked in for that position.

We have a weak schedule going forward but the Warriors have an even easier schedule. This Sunday game against the Bucks is going to be huge.

BPo001 · 03-31-2022, 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MFFL

Watching the Warriors fall apart this season has been fun

Draymond “Triple Single” Green with the clutch turnover last night with 15 sec left. Guy dribbles and then jumps for no f’n reason lol. They are trash without Curry.

SMC0007 · 03-31-2022, 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blessednegr0

I just read something that we are not locked in for that position.

We have a weak schedule going forward but the Warriors have an even easier schedule. This Sunday game against the Bucks is going to be huge.

Warriors have a tougher schedule IMO, 2 teams fighting for the POs. Especially given that they are spiraling and Curry hurt.

EricaLubarsky · 03-31-2022, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blessednegr0

I just read something that we are not locked in for that position.

We have a weak schedule going forward but the Warriors have an even easier schedule. This Sunday game against the Bucks is going to be huge.

Warriors are 28th which is very easy
Mavs are 29th which is just a hair easier

Warriors have one tough game (Jazz, who suck recently)
Mavs have one game at Bucks

EricaLubarsky · 03-31-2022, 10:25 AM

Warriors schedule with last 10 game record
Jazz (4-6)
@Kings (4-6)
Lakers (3-7)
@Spurs (6-4)
@Pelicans (6-4)
Total record 23-27

Mavs schedule with last 10 game record
@Wizards (4-6)
@Bucks (7-3)
@Pistons (2-8)
Blazers (1-9)
Spurs (6-4)
Total record 20-32

Mavs only have to tie the Warriors for record in the last five games to keep third.

EricaLubarsky · 03-31-2022, 11:25 AM

538 has both teams going 4-1

Mavs lose to Bucks
Warriors lose to Pelicans

If both teams go 4-1, Mavs retain 3rd

Melonhead · 03-31-2022, 11:48 AM

I go back and forth on Nuggets or Jazz. Its so up in the air, doesnt really matter if we finish 3 or 4 because theyre back and forth for 5/6.

Who do the Mavs match up better with? I feel like Denver, but which city is harder to play at on the road. Both places are tough. Also Jokic is the best player out of Nuggets/Jazz roster.

Scoobay · 03-31-2022, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

I go back and forth on Nuggets or Jazz. Its so up in the air, doesnt really matter if we finish 3 or 4 because theyre back and forth for 5/6.

Who do the Mavs match up better with? I feel like Denver, but which city is harder to play at on the road. Both places are tough. Also Jokic is the best player out of Nuggets/Jazz roster.

We have to go for 3rd spot - i know it's presumptive to talk about, but following a 1st round series victory would rather not have to face Phoenix. So mavs shoot for 3rd and whoever matches up against them take care of business.

SMC0007 · 03-31-2022, 11:54 AM

GS would be my first pick because they're fraudrick, but I don't really care long as we have HCA.

DevinHarriswillstart · 03-31-2022, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

I go back and forth on Nuggets or Jazz. Its so up in the air, doesnt really matter if we finish 3 or 4 because theyre back and forth for 5/6.

Who do the Mavs match up better with? I feel like Denver, but which city is harder to play at on the road. Both places are tough. Also Jokic is the best player out of Nuggets/Jazz roster.

Prefer to play the Jazz. Team with the best player almost always had the advantage. Jokic is close enough in talent to Luka that he can carry that team, and the Mavs have nobody to stop him.

With that said, bring on any team.

Melonhead · 03-31-2022, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scoobay

We have to go for 3rd spot - i know it's presumptive to talk about, but following a 1st round series victory would rather not have to face Phoenix. So mavs shoot for 3rd and whoever matches up against them take care of business.

Oh of course youre exactly right. 3 seed doesnt see the 1 seed, assuming each team wins out, until the WCF

saclare · 03-31-2022, 01:19 PM

The only thing that we should be concerned with is home court advantage. However, a 3 seed does not have to face the Suns until the conference finals. That would be a nice advantage.

Thespiralgoeson · 03-31-2022, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saclare

The only thing that we should be concerned with is home court advantage. However, a 3 seed does not have to face the Suns until the conference finals. That would be a nice advantage.

That is a tremendous advantage indeed. If we can avoid Phoenix in the 2nd round, then we have a very good shot at making the conference finals. And while I do expect Phoenix would win a matchup with the Mavs, having the best player always gives you a puncher's chance. It's unlikely, but not crazy, not inconceivable, not ludicrous, that the Mavs would end up in the finals.

mavErika · 03-31-2022, 04:34 PM

I'm glad so far things are developing as I had expected and hoped for. Here's (most of) what I hid in the vs-Jazz-GDT three days ago:

If the Mavs make up two games on the steph-less warriors then they are golden.

And they absolutely should, looking at that remaining schedule. SOS is one thing and hugely in our favor. But not only that, of these seven teams only three or four have anything to play for* (SA might be locked in or out of the play-in it by the time the regular season finale rolls around) AND, as has also been noted, two of these three are just in a bad way rn. And fittingly those two are the the next two on the schedule.
[interjection: so far, business has been taken care of - good times]

Even though their play over these last few games hasn't provided huge confidence in going 6-1 or 5-2 against any opponent, the Mavs should just feast on that schedule. And they should not let anything dsistract them from doing so. The benefits of that #3 seed are so big that I almost can't imagine them pissing it away in classic mid season mavs fashion.
Otoh, any one of these teams can beat us if the shooting is as bad as it has been at times lately and this, to me, looks so clear-cut on paper that I cannot not brace myself for when it all blows up spectacularly as the Wiz and/or Pistons crush us.

*Compare that to GS; where only SAC is out of the race completely

Although they have not looked great lately and sth like 3-4 seems like a fair guess for them, it wouldn't shock me to see them pull it together and go 4-3 or 5-2 and stop us from climbing further in the standings that way.

To conclude, my best guess is also the ideal (? - I certainly think so) scenario where the Mavs end up in the 3-seed, avoid the Suns in Round 2, and still play the Jazz in Rd 1, who fall back to #6. The Lakers might have fallen out of the play-in, regardless of LeBron's ankle. Their remaining schedule is just brutal (closing on a B2B2B, probably not the favorite against anyone but OKC and maybe their re-match with NO) and the Spurs have several good opportunities to pick up some Ws.

mavErika · 03-31-2022, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Warriors have a tougher schedule IMO, 2 teams fighting for the POs. Especially given that they are spiraling and Curry hurt.

Exactly.
And while Jordan Poole does an amazing job compensating the absence of Curry - we have Luka and they don't have Steph. I do expect them to get better with Klay and Draymond slowly getting their feet back under them, but the Mavs should be able to keep them in check from here.

mavErika · 03-31-2022, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

It’s destiny

In 1985, Jazz were Detlef Schrempf’s first playoff series win
In 2001, Jazz were Dirk’s first playoff series win
In 2022, Luka - ???

It is decided by the Dallas Stars that with the rise of a white wunderkind, the Jazz as the whitest NBA fan base will be sacrificed to the Mavericks gods.

Awesome! I really enjoy the mental image of some rough and tough but also godlike hockey players in full Dallas gear pummeling those poor jazz fans up the temple stairs to the sacrificial altar for renewed Mavericks playoff success!

Of course I don't really want to see any blood spilled, but I'm open to the idea of believing in a place where fan dreams manifest themselves in some sort of metaphysical bodies and just that happens, to please the gods and make them look favorably at our newest white savior

mavErika · 03-31-2022, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scoobay

I think you missed the logic here. Clearly it’s not about Luka…
It’s about Maxi the rise of Maxi Kleber the next great German mav!
And speaking of German mavs, I think Uwe Blab was on that ‘85 team too lol

Guter Stoff!

I'm also here for Maxi fulfilling the prophecy by propelling Luka to postseason glory!

mavErika · 03-31-2022, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

That is a tremendous advantage indeed. If we can avoid Phoenix in the 2nd round, then we have a very good shot at making the conference finals. And while I do expect Phoenix would win a matchup with the Mavs, having the best player always gives you a puncher's chance. It's unlikely, but not crazy, not inconceivable, not ludicrous, that the Mavs would end up in the finals.

Luka gives you a puncher's chance and injuries could always happen, opening up a path previously not believed to be there, so it's paramount to position yourself to benefit in case that path does open up.
Weirdly enough, I trust these Mavs to see that and play accordingly.

mavErika · 03-31-2022, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mavErika

Exactly.
(...)we have Luka and they don't have Steph.

After two weeks he is about to get re-evaluated, but it doesn't sound like a return is imminent:

Kendra Andrews
@kendra__andrews
Steve Kerr says Stephen Curry still has not returned to on-court activity. He’s working with head trainer Rick Celebrini in the weight room and in the pool. His official re-evaluation date is Friday.

https://twitter.com/kendra__andrews/...27114738159619

Dallas41 · 03-31-2022, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Prefer to play the Jazz. Team with the best player almost always had the advantage. Jokic is close enough in talent to Luka that he can carry that team, and the Mavs have nobody to stop him.

With that said, bring on any team.

I think Denver would be the best for Dallas

They lack rim protection and defensively they aren't very good. That bodes well for Dallas

Utah has two legit bigs who can rebound and block shots. They might not be offensive threats like Jokic but they could pose problems for Dallas on the defensive end of the floor and the Jazz seem to be unbeatable in Utah when they play Dallas.

Thespiralgoeson · 04-01-2022, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I think Denver would be the best for Dallas

They lack rim protection and defensively they aren't very good. That bodes well for Dallas

Utah has two legit bigs who can rebound and block shots. They might not be offensive threats like Jokic but they could pose problems for Dallas on the defensive end of the floor and the Jazz seem to be unbeatable in Utah when they play Dallas.

Jokic scares me 10x more than anyone on Utah's roster.

BPo001 · 04-01-2022, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I think Denver would be the best for Dallas

They lack rim protection and defensively they aren't very good. That bodes well for Dallas

Utah has two legit bigs who can rebound and block shots. They might not be offensive threats like Jokic but they could pose problems for Dallas on the defensive end of the floor and the Jazz seem to be unbeatable in Utah when they play Dallas.

I think I agree. You can let Jokic get his, or force the other guys to beat you by doubling Jokic. Utah’s ability to knock down high % 3’s and having to legit bigs is worrisome. We would have the best overall player in Luka against Utah (debatable against Denver). Playing at altitude in Denver could cause issues though.

MFFL · 04-01-2022, 03:21 PM

Curry out for rest of regular season

https://www.audacy.com/1053thefan/sp...ON2pMBgUPAdWJk

Dallas41 · 04-01-2022, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

Jokic scares me 10x more than anyone on Utah's roster.

Offensively yes

But I think Luka cancels out Jokic

Then it comes down to Mavs role players vs Nuggets role players.

I believe Luka has the better overall support and I believe the lack of defense by Denver in the playoffs bolds well for Dallas.

EricaLubarsky · 04-01-2022, 08:28 PM

This is why I want nothing of the Jazz

Luka didn’t even try to drive vs the Wizards. KP was literally stationary. Standing there like a stiff. Didn’t even get a block until the game was -28. This team is just allergic to bigs inside.