Jazz@Mavs 6:30 cst

[mavErika]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Not sure #3 is in the cards. I anticipate Warriors will go 3-4. To match the record we’d have to go 6-1

Lakers (1-1)
Cavs (0-1)
Wizards (0-1)
Bucks (0-1)
Pistons (1-0)
Blazers (2-0)
Spurs (3-0)

If we continue the trend, then it looks like we’ll go either 4-3 or 3-4 so dropping back to 5 is an option. That’s why we play, though.

I think you have the tie-breaker wrong? If the Mavs make up two games on the steph-less warriors then they are golden.

And they absolutely should, looking at that remaining schedule. SOS is one thing and, as you have noted more than once, hugely in our favor. But not only that, of these seven teams only three or four have anything to play for* (SA might be locked in or out of the play-in it by the time the regular season finale rolls around) AND, as has also been noted, two of these three are just in a bad way rn. And fittingly those two are the the next two on the schedule.

Even though their play over these last few games hasn't provided huge confidence in going 6-1 or 5-2 against any opponent, the Mavs should just feast on that schedule. And they should not let anything dsistract them from doing so, the benefits of that #3 seed are so big that I almost can't imagine them pissing it away in classic mid season mavs fashion.
Otoh, any one of these teams can beat us if the shooting is as bad as it has been at times lately. And, of course, this, to me, looks so clear-cut on paper that I cannot not brace myself for when it all blows up spectacularly as the Wiz and/or Pistons crush us.

*Compare that to GS; where only SAC is out of the race completely (also note the dates - but we have 3 B2Bs left ourselves, which is a bit worrisome):

Tue, Mar 29
@Memphis
Thu, Mar 31
vsPhoenix
Sun, Apr 3
vsUtah
Mon, Apr 4
@Sacramento
Fri, Apr 8
vsLos Angeles
Sat, Apr 9
@San Antonio
Sun, Apr 10
@New Orleans

Although they have not looked great lately and sth like 3-4 seems like a fair guess for them, it wouldn't shock me to see them pull it together and go 4-3 or 5-2 and stop us from climbing further in the standings that way.

To conclude, my best guess is also the ideal (? - I certainly think so) scenario where the Mavs end up in the 3-seed, avoid the Suns in Round 2, and still play the Jazz in Rd 1, who fall back to #6. The Lakers might have fallen out of the play-in, regardless of LeBron's ankle. Their remaining schedule is just brutal (2 sets of B2B2Bs, probably not the favorite against anyone but OKC and maybe their re-match with NO) and the Spurs have several good opportunities to pick up some Ws.

EDIT: actually, DON'T look too closely at dates and b2bs and so on. It all got mixed quite up a bit by looking at the schedules from my GMT+1 perspective. For example, we have two sets of b2bs left, not three.