2018 NBA Draft

[EricaLubarsky]

It's definitely going to be interesting. Luckily, I don't think the Mavs have to make that call. At this point, I'm just hoping the MAvs can avoid 7/8.

I really wonder about Ayton. I highly doubt he will make it out of the second round. UofA really isn't going far and it's not really Ayton's fault. Duke and Michigan, on the other hand, will most likely make the final four. A lot of that is the supporting cast, though. It's definitely easier to draft Bagley after he makes a splash in the final four/championship game than it's going to be to take Ayton who will have been eliminated early in the tourney, even if he puts up some solid numbers. A lot of people throw around the "he knows how to win" thing, but UofA has had a tough time with injuries and centers have it toughest when it comes to making an impact. Without guards to assist, Ayton is going to have a hard time impressing in the tourney.

The NCAA vs. International thing is even more interesting. As far as I can tell, we've only ever had two players drafted first from overseas-- Yao Ming and Andrea Bargnani. Yao was amazing in his relatively short career. Bargnani was good but not great for a 1st overall, although he did come from one of the worst draft years on record. Really makes me wonder if we'll see an international in a draft as strong as this. Things have certainly changed since Dirk.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

I see where you're coming from on Ayton. However, and I'm definitely not qualified to speak on the quality of these two players, several mocks have the Wildcats' guards Junior Allonzo Trier and Sophomore Rawle Alkins going in the 2nd round this year.

I could see Arizona making it to the Final Four actually. I mean, everything will depend on seeding. I saw a "bracketology" mock tournament on ESPN last week that had Arizona seeded #4 in the West with like Duke, Oklahoma, and Michigan State (I believe). Whatever their mock tournament seedings were I was I like yeah Arizona has no chance.

However, this is a down year for the Pac 12. Arizona is ranked #11 in the country right now and they only have Pac 12 schools left on their schedule before March Madness. Arizona State at #21 is the only other Pac 12 school that's ranked or even sniffing the top 25. They only play Arizona State one more time, and they only face 2 other teams in the Pac 12 with a player on their roster that's being discussed in this upcoming draft, USC one more time and Oregon one more time. Probably at worst they finish 24-7, but you could also see them at 26-5, and jumping up to take a 2nd or 3rd seed in the tournament. If things break right, I could see them making the Elite 8 & Ayton getting some exposure. Could also see the Wildcats getting bounced in the 2nd round tho too.

Totally agree on everything you said about Duke & the "he knows how to win" nonsense. I'm starting to have some real concerns about Bagley III. I read some posters on other forums talking about how his game revolves around scoring inside & off put backs and whether he has the strength to be successful doing that in the NBA. Other posters questioning his passing & shooting abilities.

Unless the Mavs make a lot of stupid moves like not tanking when they should, or just run really hot with team injuries, etc. there's no way in my mind they pick any lower than 6th. And, I'm saying like less than a 3% chance of that. It's much more likely the Mavs end up with a top 3 pick than pick any lower than 6th. They're pretty much in store for a top 5 pick if they play their cards right.

Man, thinking about that podcast with Woj & Zach Lowe talking. Say Sacramento picks 1st, Atlanta picks 2nd, and Dallas is picking 3rd. A guy like Doncic might hold both of those top 2 teams hostage & say "Don't draft me. I'm going to Dallas, or if you take me, I'm going back to play for Real Madrid for a year". Maybe DeAndre Ayton would try to pull a stunt like that too. I'm hearing that none of the top 6 picks last year would work out for Sacramento. Lol. It's definitely nice to be in the Mavs' shoes were any of the top prospects are hoping they land in Big D w/ DSJ!

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Dang. ATL after being 9 at the half, was up by 1 on CHA with 2:59 to go in the 4th qtr, but couldn't hang on. Would of been nice to see the Hawks saddled with a W.

Oh well, at least Charlotte gets saddled with the W instead.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Wow. Utah was in a tight one with TOR on the road all game long & Ricky Rubio of all people hits the game winning 3 for the Jazz with 5 seconds left.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Dang. CHI, after being down by 12 to start the 4th, took a 1 pt lead with 2:46 left to go in the 4th qtr, but they couldn't hold on. Smh.

Oh well, at least the Lakers were saddled with the W.

Here's the thing that I don't get with folks saying they fear we'll wind up drafting like 8th or 9th. I know the Mavs haven't been smart about tanking in the past, so I understand the fear. However, we have the 4th worst record in the league. I mean, We've had ATL vs CHA tonight, LAL vs CHI tonight. These other teams at the bottom play each other too. We'd really have to run exceptionally bad to finish with a worse record than 6th.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Dang. CHI, after being down by 12 to start the 4th, took a 1 pt lead with 2:46 left to go in the 4th qtr, but they couldn't hold on. Smh.

Oh well, at least the Lakers were saddled with the W.

Here's the thing that I don't get with folks saying they fear we'll wind up drafting like 8th or 9th. I know the Mavs haven't been smart about tanking in the past, so I understand the fear. However, we have the 4th worst record in the league. I mean, We've had ATL vs CHA tonight, LAL vs CHI tonight. These other teams at the bottom play each other too. We'd really have to run exceptionally bad to finish with a worse record than 6th.

Like I say, you can't tank if you're already losing.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Like I say, you can't tank if you're already losing.

That's an excellent point. I mean, the Mavs have trouble scoring the ball & these last 2 games have shown we're not very good defensively either.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Grizz definitely in tank mode now. Ugh...

I wonder how Gasol's going to respond

[hayth.james.g]

Bamba is really starting to put it all together. Watching game evolve these past few weeks has been encouraging.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

Bamba is really starting to put it all together. Watching game evolve these past few weeks has been encouraging.

He absolutely BEASTED today.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

Bamba is really starting to put it all together. Watching game evolve these past few weeks has been encouraging.

Wow. 12-13 FTs today. Impressive.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

ORL let one slip away in IND. Disappointing.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

None of the other bottom feeders pulled out a W tonight, but on the brightside, we're essentially tied for the worst record in the West!

[mac222b]

Yeah I think we suck but not as much as those other teams mentioned. I’m not getting my hopes up and will be pleasantly surprised if we finish 5th worst. They were terrible at tanking last season. We were just lucky Dennis fell to us

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Yeah I think we suck but not as much as those other teams mentioned... They were terrible at tanking last season. We were just lucky Dennis fell to us

I understand the fear because being bad at tanking can be an organizational decision. On the other hand, the Mavs can realistically only be 2-3 games out of the worst record race a month from now (or closer), and last year they were closer to an outside shot at the playoffs and further away from a shot at the #1 overall pick. Hopefully that will influence the Mavs to be better at tanking this year.

I really hope the Mavs can drop Monday's game to the Heat because they've got a streak of very winnable games coming up before the All Star break. Really want them to drop Wednesday's game @ Phoenix, then @ SAC, @ LAC, @ GSW, vs LAL, @ HOU, and vs SAC.

I had the Mavs with 19 or 20 wins at the break. Had them dropping these last 3 games. We're sitting at 16 wins. If they could somehow only get 2 wins in this stretch, then I can't see any way the Mavs are in a position to fight their way out of the top 5 worst records in the league. They'd be 18-40 with only 24 games left in the season. Say from there they go 9-15, that's only 27 wins. 27 wins is going to be good enough for a top 5 worst record in the league this year. But, what about this team says we can sustain a .375 winning pct over 24 games?

On the other hand, if the Mavs knock off MIA, beat PHX, take down SAC twice & steal a game from the Lakers or Clippers, say they do something like that and are sitting at 21-37 or 22-36 at the break, then I'm going to be very worried about the Mavs picking in that 8th to 9th range that so many other posters have talked about fearing.

[EricaLubarsky]

The feeling in my gut is that we still beat the Nets but Suns and Grizz will beat us. We’ll end up 6th worst and draft 7th overall after they draw the balls

[EricaLubarsky]

Suns and Kings games are going to be crucial and almost impossible to lose

[sefant77]

New mock from nbadraft.net. Jackson rising

Ayton
Bagley
Porter
Jackson
Trae
Doncic
Bamba

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by sefant77

New mock from nbadraft.net. Jackson rising

Ayton
Bagley
Porter
Jackson
Trae
Doncic
Bamba

Raef was years ahead of his time. Centers that can hit the three are going to be huge

[saclare]

No good otter movement yet this weekend, but very promising ball being played by some of the prospects being mocked top 10. Bamba is a beast, Knox breaking out, Wendell Carter rising, Jackson and the Bridges steady, Bagley is a beast, Ayton pedestrian but he's fine.

[Underdog]

PODCAST: Ayton, Bamba talk (and more)
https://www.thestepien.com/2018/01/2...s-ayton-bamba/

Jaren Jackson and Miles Bridges
https://www.thestepien.com/2018/01/2...miles-bridges/

Kevin Knox and Mikal Bridges
https://www.thestepien.com/2017/12/1...bridges-stuff/

Collin Sexton and Trae Young
https://www.thestepien.com/2017/12/2...on-trae-young/

Luka Doncic and Michael Porter
https://www.thestepien.com/2017/11/2...doncic-porter/

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Just watched the 2H of Villanova & Marquette. Holy cow is Mikal Bridges impressive. The guy is long, very agile, very disruptive in the passing lanes, high basketball IQ & he can knock down the outside shot too. Drool.

[tap2390]

My Mavs draft board

1) Bagley (hard to compare him to someone -- Ben Simmons comes to mind)
2) Doncic (I'm starting to buy into the hype)
3) Ayton (you wonder how he'll fit in to today's game, but ultimately his presence in the half-court offense is too much to pass on)
4) Jackson Jr. (over Bamba because he's displayed more skill on offense while flashing some of the same game altering defense (and better lateral speed on perimeter when switching))
5) Porter Jr. (if the back checks out you take him over Bamba because you know Porter can average 20 a game in the league)
6) Bamba (questions about bulk and health drive him down)
7) Knox (flashed some of the offensive skill that makes him so dangerous vs. WV)
8) Mikal (best defender in NCAA;likely a role player, but one every team needs)
9) Miles (tweener, but hitting 90% of FTs this season which he'll need to do to continue to drive in the NBA)


off the board --> Wendell Carter (Jahlil Okafor redux, not made for today's NBA); R. Williams (too raw; can't hit FTs; undersized); Point Guards

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by tap2390

My Mavs draft board

1) Bagley (hard to compare him to someone -- Ben Simmons comes to mind)
2) Doncic (I'm starting to buy into the hype)
3) Ayton (you wonder how he'll fit in to today's game, but ultimately his presence in the half-court offense is too much to pass on)
4) Jackson Jr. (over Bamba because he's displayed more skill on offense while flashing some of the same game altering defense (and better lateral speed on perimeter when switching))
5) Porter Jr. (if the back checks out you take him over Bamba because you know Porter can average 20 a game in the league)
6) Bamba (questions about bulk and health drive him down)
7) Knox (flashed some of the offensive skill that makes him so dangerous vs. WV)
8) Mikal (best defender in NCAA;likely a role player, but one every team needs)
9) Miles (tweener, but hitting 90% of FTs this season which he'll need to do to continue to drive in the NBA)


off the board --> Wendell Carter (Jahlil Okafor redux, not made for today's NBA); R. Williams (too raw; can't hit FTs; undersized); Point Guards

Honestly, I agree with this outside of I take Porter Jr off my board completely. Can't think of one NBA player who had a discectomy who came back as the same player (granted it's rare for a player this young, so maybe there's more hope for Porter Jr. A 15 year NBA career, probably not tho). Dwight Howard, Rudy Fernandez, Peja Stojakovic, Grand Ma Ma aka Larry Johnson, Brad Daugherty, and Larry Bird are just a few examples of players who were nowhere near their former selves after a herniated disc.

I would also take Bagley III down from my top spot. I would probably slide Mikal Bridges into Porter Jr's spot, and slide Bagley III behind Bamba.

I wanna see more from Knox, and I'm not overly impressed with Miles Bridges. He's definitely undersized.

My list would look something like

Luka Doncic
DeAndre Ayton
Jaren Jackson Jr
Mikal Bridges
Trae Young (he's a special talent too good to pass up if he falls to us)
Marvin Bagley III
Mohamed Bamba

Not sure I really feel strongly about any other players because these are Tier 1 players. Everyone else is in Tier 2 right now imo. Plus, I don't see the Mavs falling out of the top 7 picks.

Kevin Knox, Miles Bridges, Collin Sexton. I'm not sure any of these guys are significantly better than Troy Brown, Lonnie Walker or even Brandon McCoy. I'm also hearing better reports on Wendell Carter Jr than you have.

Overall it's a very good list

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by tap2390

My Mavs draft board


2) Doncic (I'm starting to buy into the hype)

[EricaLubarsky]

Bagley is pretty easy to compare. KG meets Sheed

Don’t really see Simmons at all.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Some people think there's not considerable different between how Bagley III and Carter Jr project at the next level. Which those people tend to think Carter Jr is underrated, but it does suggest Bagley III is overrated.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Booker left tonight's game vs HOU with an injury to his left hip/mid-section area. He's scheduled for X-rays in the morning. Sigh... At least the report just says X-rays, if it said MRI, I'd be more worried; although a broken rib or something would be really bad.

On the brightside, if Booker sits & PHX sits more of their vets, then Memphis is in store for a W Monday night. Love it when the fellow bottom feeders face each other!!

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Booker left tonight's game vs HOU with an injury to his left hip/mid-section area. He's scheduled for X-rays in the morning. Sigh... At least the report just says X-rays, if it said MRI, I'd be more worried; although a broken rib or something would be really bad.

On the brightside, if Booker sits & PHX sits more of their vets, then Memphis is in store for a W Monday night. Love it when the fellow bottom feeders face each other!!

Except we play the Suns on Wednesday for 4th/5th. Without Booker I’m not really sure how we can lose that one. Hanging a win on the Grizz would help slow the fall to 6th, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we were 5th after Wednesday

Doesn't matter what the x-rays say, Booker is probably out at least 10 games if not indefinitely. Mavs may need to up their tanking game.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Except we play the Suns on Wednesday for 4th/5th. Without Booker I’m not really sure how we can lose that one. Hanging a win on the Grizz would help slow the fall to 6th, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we were 5th after Wednesday

Doesn't matter what the x-rays say, Booker is probably out at least 10 games if not indefinitely. Mavs may need to up their tanking game.

I'm gonna say you're a glass is half-empty kinda person. Amirite? lol

Not saying you're wrong, just saying you seem like a pessimist.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I'm gonna say you're a glass is half-empty kinda person. Amirite? lol

Not saying you're wrong, just saying you seem like a pessimist.

Happy to have some fluid, but if we don't ration, that water is running out.

[mac222b]

And yet another key player injured right before we play their team. Unreal.

[mac222b]

If we draft 1-6 I'll be pleasantly surprised. Fully expecting 7 or 8 unless we start to tank in earnest. JJB and Devin sitting is a start. Possible trades in the works? Too much to ask?

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by mac222b

If we draft 1-6 I'll be pleasantly surprised. Fully expecting 7 or 8 unless we start to tank in earnest. JJB and Devin sitting is a start. Possible trades in the works? Too much to ask?

100% agree. I predict we'll end up 6th, which gives us a 34.1% of drafting 7 or 8. It's not really pessimism as much as it's just our track record and theirs.

With 31 games left and Conley and maybe even Booker out for the rest of the season, I find it difficult to believe that we'll be able to out-tank Suns and Grizz unless we develop some injuries or trade away some talent. We're just not as terrible as those teams and we actually have a competent coach and a rookie that can rattle off 15-18 points in a row. We can certainly pull off 3-5, but I think 6 is about as good as we can do and hope the 7-14 teams don't win the lottery so we get bumped down a spot.

Nets +2.0 (17th hardest schedule)
Grizzlies +2.0 (24th hardest schedule)
Phoenix +1.0 (7th hardest schedule)
Dallas === (26th hardest schedule)
Kings -0.5 (10th hardest schedule)
Orlando -1.0 (25th hardest schedule)
Hawks -1.5 (17th hardest schedule)

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

100% agree, but I'm called a pessimist. I predict we'll end up 6th, which gives us a 34.1% of drafting 7 or 8. About a 1 in 3 chance of being bumped down.

With 31 games left and Conley and maybe even Booker out for the rest of the season, I find it difficult to believe that we'll be able to out-tank Suns and Grizz unless we develop some injuries or trade away some talent.

Pessimist!

Maybe after the All-Star break we'll start to see them sit our starters some? One can hope. I'll believe it when I see it though. Give Barnes a couple of well-timed games off, especially against Memphis on the 10th of March. If we lose to them we split the season series. Of course Barnes hit the game winner against them last time, which could come back to haunt...

I'll be pleasantly surprised if we can manage 5th. 6th is probably most likely. Suns and Grizz will be tough to out tank so its going to be the tier of Bulls, Nets, Lakers, Hornets and maybe Jazz we have to out-lose. Should be doable barring any other major injuries for those teams or another 3-4 game winning streak on our part.

[mac222b]

At #6 I'd be thrilled with Bamba and exceedingly happy with Jaren Jackson Jr.
Trae Young would be fun, but confusing. Mikal Bridges would be cool and likely a cornerstone starter but underwhelming in relation to the top 5 or 6. I think he's more Otto Porter than Kawhi, unless he dramatically improves his handle and ability to create. Maybe a better comp is a hyper-charged Robert Covington?

In order to have our choice between Bamba and Jackson Jr. at 6, Porter and Young would have to both go top 5. I'm hoping we pass on Porter if given the chance. Love the skill set but back issues are scary.

[tap2390]

Porter's back injury is scary, but I assume if we take him it's because some of the best orthopedic and neurosurgeons in the nation have seen his medical records and cleared him. If he's clear, he should be in play at #1. That being said, athletes don't traditionally do well with micro-discectomy operations so you definitely want to err on the side of caution.

Please just be as bad as possible Mavs... we want options.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by tap2390

Porter's back injury is scary, but I assume if we take him it's because some of the best orthopedic and neurosurgeons in the nation have seen his medical records and cleared him. If he's clear, he should be in play at #1. That being said, athletes don't traditionally do well with micro-discectomy operations so you definitely want to err on the side of caution.

Please just be as bad as possible Mavs... we want options.

I see this not just here on this forum, but everytime Porter Jr comes up on any forum. Everyone says "if the doctors clear him". I had a discectomy in my back, and after surgery, my follow up appointment with my doctor basically said "I'm prescribing you 6 weeks of physical therapy. I have some patients who were runners, and they say running is part of their life they can't give it up. I see half of those patients in here again for another surgery. If I were you, I would not run or jump again."

Technically, I was "cleared" to do whatever I wanted after my 6 weeks of physical therapy. I chose to start swimming instead of running & jumping. Not worth it to me. Herniated discs are incredibly painful & lifestyle altering.

Porter Jr will be cleared by the medical staff. Based on my experience with this, no way he'll ever be the same player again.

[EricaLubarsky]

I really want a 10-18 pick in addition to our 5-8. There are going to be some amazing talents in that range.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I really want a 10-18 pick in addition to our 5-8. There are going to be some amazing talents in that range.

There really are. This draft seems pretty loaded too. Better at the top than last season and equal or better up until maybe mid to late 20's. 2017 just had crazy depth. Jordan Bell and Jonah Bolden types would've probably gone in the 20's in this one.

Would be amazing if we could even get, say, Cleveland's first round pick. With that and our early second we at least have a punchers chance of moving up for a guy we love in the mid-teens