GDT: Mavs vs Jazz 02/09/16 7:30pm CT

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Mavs always leaving just a little bit more room for disappointment...

Agreed.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

God you are condescending

Banning was never on the table, but if you want to keep being insulting and rude it might get there.

And telling someone they need to take a day off from posting here isn't? You're bigger than this.

Whatever, I don't want to derail the thread. I hope I can have my own opinion in future posts. Have a good night.

[Underdog]

The Mavs lost, it sucks, everybody chill.

[Underdog]

This is gonna be a long-ass All-Star break...

[10AMGareDuNord]

Wow...just wow. This loss was absolutely and utterly inexcusable.

1. Is any team more snakebit than the Mavs? I would love for someone to crunch the numbers on how many fluke jumpers to beat the buzzer/tie/win a game go in against this team. It's almost comical.

2. Wes Matthews and Raymond Felton are two of the worst in the NBA at fighting through screens.

3. Hayward is a significantly better player than Parsons. I know Parsons had a nice game tonight, too. But just watching a lot of them (stats aside, which significantly favor Hayward), Gordon's impact is just so much bigger on both sides of the ball.

4. RC is a damn good coach. Top 4-10 IMO. (I think he's overrated by many. Personally, I take Pop, Kerr, Stevens, and SVG over him.) He was key to winning the ring in 2011. But I'm done with him. I genuinely believe he's done all he can with this franchise and it's time for something new. He's done a really poor job of certain things over the past few years, and for new, tonight was a microcosm of that and the straw that broke the camel's back. This loss weighs heavily on him.

A. Dirk didn't have a single shot attempt for the last 7 minutes of the game. (His last attempt was a clutch make with 2:07 left in the 4th.) When you have a guy who has literally been the most clutch player in the NBA this year, and one of the most clutch scorers of all-time, that is just flat-out unacceptable. You design something for him. Period. I feel bad for the guy. +15 tonight. Next highest Mav was +3. Having to play at this level on a nightly basis at 37 just for a chance to win games...

B. STOP F**KING TAKE DIRK OUT FOR DEFENSIVE SUBSTITUTIONS LATE IN GAMES. This is something RC has done for years, and something I've bemoaned for years. Not only does it burn timeouts trying to get him in on offense, and often leaves him (the best FT shooter on the team, and 3rd in the NBA), on the bench when the team needs FTs, but it FLAT OUT NEVER WORKS. NEVER. I'm not even being hyperbolic here. The Jazz were 3-3 on plays after Dirk was taken out. Not only do teams always score, but they score immediately with little clock wasted. It's surreal. Dirk, at 37, is still a plus defender on this team, and more importantly, a *smart* defender who isn't going to lose his man or get lost. He also does a good job of telling defenders where they need to be. If we had a smart, athletic, plus defending big off the bench to bring it, I'd maybe understand it. But we don't. He's replacing Dirk with Powell (who, despite his energy, is a far worse defender than Dirk with less length and an inferior BBALL IQ), and, for some utterly insane reason, Felton, who is a terrible defender, constantly loses his man, and, as aforementioned, is one of the worst in the NBA at fighting through screens. That's one of RC's issues...he's so GD stubborn and won't realize when he's wrong. Speaking of...

C. Up 3 with that little time left, I *hate* not fouling. It's just stupid not to. Particularly given how prone to being snakebit the Mavs are.

D. How the f**k do you waste 24 seconds, out of a timeout, on our last possession in OT. There were 36 or so seconds left and plenty of time to draw-up a smart play for a 2-1. You really have to get a 2-1 there. Instead, wasted clock, CP miss, Jazz win.

E. The play he drew up to end regulation. Really?

Just an entirely unacceptable loss, which I think falls squarely on RC.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

2. Wes Matthews and Raymond Felton are two of the worst in the NBA at fighting through screens.

I'm hoping that for wes it's in part because of the injury but as for Felton he's been ball watching all season and most our players are pretty poor going through screens.

3. Hayward is a significantly better player than Parsons. I know Parsons had a nice game tonight, too. But just watching a lot of them (stats aside, which significantly favor Hayward), Gordon's impact is just so much bigger on both sides of the ball.

I don't get this one. Hayward has like the third-4th highest usage of a forward in the entire NBA and is highest usage of his team so of course he has more of an impact on a nightly basis, he also didn't basically start his season 6 weeks ago... he's not standing in a corner spacing things for a bunch of pg's either. Basically his usage dwarfs Parsons, who is 3rd in starting lineup and is significantly behind barea as well. Hayward also literally did nothing all game till the 4th and Parsons defended him well all game. He also played 45mins to Parsons 35min due to foul trouble. I honestly don't know how you say this.

4. RC is a damn good coach. Top 4-10 IMO. (I think he's overrated by many. Personally, I take Pop, Kerr, Stevens, and SVG over him.) He was key to winning the ring in 2011. But I'm done with him. I genuinely believe he's done all he can with this franchise and it's time for something new. He's done a really poor job of certain things over the past few years, and for new, tonight was a microcosm of that and the straw that broke the camel's back. This loss weighs heavily on him.

My main issue this year remains his lineups but in terms of tonight the not fouling when up 3 with under 5 secs left and taking wes out of the game for felton(why is wes paid 17m if you would rather have felton in on defense...?) who is terrible on defense.

A. Dirk didn't have a single shot attempt for the last 7 minutes of the game. (His last attempt was a clutch make with 2:07 left in the 4th.) When you have a guy who has literally been the most clutch player in the NBA this year, and one of the most clutch scorers of all-time, that is just flat-out unacceptable. You design something for him. Period. I feel bad for the guy. +15 tonight. Next highest Mav was +3. Having to play at this level on a nightly basis at 37 just for a chance to win games...

To be fair on this they tried to get it to him it looked like, but every team is staying tight on him and making entry passes very hard late in games. Then they showed hard on all screens and their length prevented our smalls from getting it to him.

B. STOP F**KING TAKE DIRK OUT FOR DEFENSIVE SUBSTITUTIONS LATE IN GAMES. This is something RC has done for years, and something I've bemoaned for years. Not only does it burn timeouts trying to get him in on offense, and often leaves him (the best FT shooter on the team, and 3rd in the NBA), on the bench when the team needs FTs, but it FLAT OUT NEVER WORKS. NEVER. I'm not even being hyperbolic here. The Jazz were 3-3 on plays after Dirk was taken out. Not only do teams always score, but they score immediately with little clock wasted. It's surreal. Dirk, at 37, is still a plus defender on this team, and more importantly, a *smart* defender who isn't going to lose his man or get lost. He also does a good job of telling defenders where they need to be. If we had a smart, athletic, plus defending big off the bench to bring it, I'd maybe understand it. But we don't. He's replacing Dirk with Powell (who, despite his energy, is a far worse defender than Dirk with less length and an inferior BBALL IQ), and, for some utterly insane reason, Felton, who is a terrible defender, constantly loses his man, and, as aforementioned, is one of the worst in the NBA at fighting through screens. That's one of RC's issues...he's so GD stubborn and won't realize when he's wrong. Speaking of...

Love Dirk but all game long they exposed him, like many teams do, on defense. He absolutely needs to be taken out for defense at the end of games. He gave up wide open easy rhythm jumpers to Lyles and gave up layup after layup in pnr situations all game. Not his fault, he's 37, but he has to be subbed out for defense late in games teams literally pnr us to death with whoever he is guarding or flat out just take advantage. We have tried everything to hide him, we even try to hide him on guys who can only shoot, like Ariza, and Dirk has to stay so far off him he made 5 3's to start the game last time we played Rockets because Dirk can't challenge him cuz even Ariza can blow by him and he can't sag off cuz it was like shooting practice.

C. Up 3 with that little time left, I *hate* not fouling. It's just stupid not to. Particularly given how prone to being snakebit the Mavs are.

100% agree with this and was biggest reason IMO we didn't close it out. We lost because of defense but we could have pulled it out had we played the last 5 seconds smart.

Just an entirely unacceptable loss, which I think falls squarely on RC.

I still blame both the roster as well as some suspect decisions by RC. I don't get subbing in Felton for Wes for defensive purposes. I don't get not fouling when up 3 and under 5 secs. But our bench is devoid of major contributors.

Have to give Utah some credit too, they hit some really really tough shots to close this game out and we missed shots. Parsons and Dirk both had rly good looks late and couldn't hit.

[GermanStandard]

RC made a lot of coaching mistakes this season. Clearly cost us some wins.

Why he didnt use McGee and Mejiri while the Jazz were torching us inside will forever be his secret.

[10AMGareDuNord]

See Bold...

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

I'm hoping that for wes it's in part because of the injury but as for Felton he's been ball watching all season and most our players are pretty poor going through screens.

There's a difference between being bad at going through screens, and being one of the worst in the NBA bad. Wes and Felton are the latter. Which is why we get burned on 3s so often. It's also incredible bemusing that RC ever puts Felton in late as a "defensive substitution."

I don't get this one. Hayward has like the third-4th highest usage of a forward in the entire NBA and is highest usage of his team so of course he has more of an impact on a nightly basis, he also didn't basically start his season 6 weeks ago... he's not standing in a corner spacing things for a bunch of pg's either. Basically his usage dwarfs Parsons, who is 3rd in starting lineup and is significantly behind barea as well. Hayward also literally did nothing all game till the 4th and Parsons defended him well all game. He also played 45mins to Parsons 35min due to foul trouble. I honestly don't know how you say this.

I pretty clearly stated that I'm *not* basing it on tonight...though I'd still argue Hayward had a better all-around game. There's a reason Parsons routinely has a poor +/-, and it's not a coincidence. You note Hayward's high usage, which is in fact a plus in my eyes. He's doing what he's doing as literally the ONLY playmaker on that team. They have no PG. They have no one who can initiate the offense except for Hayward. Simply put, CP could never handle what Hayward is doing in Utah. As for the actual comparison...

Hayward: 19 PER, 56% TS%, 111 ORtg, 106 DRtg, .151 WS/48, 3.1 OBPM, 2.1 VORP.

Parsons: 15 PER (16 is his career high), 57% TS%, 107 ORtg (on a better offensive team), 107 DRtg, .098 WS/48, 0.6 OBPM, 1.0 VORP

There is really zero argument to be made here.

My main issue this year remains his lineups but in terms of tonight the not fouling when up 3 with under 5 secs left and taking wes out of the game for felton(why is wes paid 17m if you would rather have felton in on defense...?) who is terrible on defense.

To be fair on this they tried to get it to him it looked like, but every team is staying tight on him and making entry passes very hard late in games. Then they showed hard on all screens and their length prevented our smalls from getting it to him.

7 minutes with zero shots. You're an alleged elite coach. Figure something out. You have to design some sort of play to get your best player a look. That simple. They didn't really even run any backside screens to get him ISOs in the post. All PnR garbage.

Love Dirk but all game long they exposed him, like many teams do, on defense. He absolutely needs to be taken out for defense at the end of games. He gave up wide open easy rhythm jumpers to Lyles and gave up layup after layup in pnr situations all game. Not his fault, he's 37, but he has to be subbed out for defense late in games teams literally pnr us to death with whoever he is guarding or flat out just take advantage. We have tried everything to hide him, we even try to hide him on guys who can only shoot, like Ariza, and Dirk has to stay so far off him he made 5 3's to start the game last time we played Rockets because Dirk can't challenge him cuz even Ariza can blow by him and he can't sag off cuz it was like shooting practice.

Well, that's simply untrue. Clearly they didn't "expose Dirk all game long" when he was a +15 and the next best Mav was +3. FYI, Dirk has a positive DBPM, 1.7 Defensive Win Shares, and the defense is a net negative with him on the bench.

Does Dirk has issues with certain matchups? Sure. Young, athletic guys like Trey Lyles might give him trouble. But the Jazz aren't going to Trey Lyles at the end of games. And the Rockets game is a poor example...Ariza simply shot out of his ass. Again, if there were a better alternative it might be worth it. However, Powell and Felton are *not* better alternatives. Proof is in the pudding...watch the film. Literally almost every time Dirk is taken out for a defensive substitution, the other team *immediately* scores. Jazz were 3-3 in around 16 total seconds in such situations tonight...

100% agree with this and was biggest reason IMO we didn't close it out. We lost because of defense but we could have pulled it out had we played the last 5 seconds smart.

I still blame both the roster as well as some suspect decisions by RC. I don't get subbing in Felton for Wes for defensive purposes. I don't get not fouling when up 3 and under 5 secs. But our bench is devoid of major contributors.

Have to give Utah some credit too, they hit some really really tough shots to close this game out and we missed shots. Parsons and Dirk both had rly good looks late and couldn't hit.

[dirt_dobber]

I detest OT losses - Mavs shot the ball 75 times the Jazz shot 92.
The NBA avg for shot attempts in a game is right around 90. Our tempo and pace of play are a big ?

AND - Up 3, with 3 seconds left, Jazz player has the ball INSIDE the perimeter, and we don't foul...AND the Jazz had no time outs....

[Geschwinder]

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

See Bold...

Never post, just wanted to point out: This is why we need to keep this board going. Never can have this discussion on twitter.

[rimrocker]

Are Mejri and McGee hurt?

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

I pretty clearly stated that I'm *not* basing it on tonight...though I'd still argue Hayward had a better all-around game. There's a reason Parsons routinely has a poor +/-, and it's not a coincidence. You note Hayward's high usage, which is in fact a plus in my eyes. He's doing what he's doing as literally the ONLY playmaker on that team. They have no PG. They have no one who can initiate the offense except for Hayward. Simply put, CP could never handle what Hayward is doing in Utah. As for the actual comparison...

Hayward: 19 PER, 56% TS%, 111 ORtg, 106 DRtg, .151 WS/48, 3.1 OBPM, 2.1 VORP.

Parsons: 15 PER (16 is his career high), 57% TS%, 107 ORtg (on a better offensive team), 107 DRtg, .098 WS/48, 0.6 OBPM, 1.0 VORP

+- rly is not an individual stat it's more of a lineup stat. Gobert was a -16 you really thing Gobert was the worst player on the court last night? Deron and Felton are both at a -.6 per game on the season. I guess that means we can trade away dwill because felton is just as good. Whiteside is -.4 per game on the season, guess we shouldn't go after him because his reserves are making a better impact. Tyreke Evans has a higher +- per game for the season than Anthony Davis... those are just a few quick ones I noticed in 5 minutes. +- means very little individually.

As for the stats you posted... You are using season long stats gauging 2 guys as equals when one, as I said, basically had his season start 6 weeks ago. Also our offense has fallen off. Jazz have the lowest pace in the NBA which is why their offense is poor overall. Their team off rating for the season is identical to ours though, and their ts% is nearly identical. And since January our off rating is lower than theirs so I wouldn't call our offense, especially over 15 games, better.

For the Month of January-
-Utah Jazz offensive rating 106 Mavs 101.3 (Hayward has a 105.4, worse than his team as a whole... Parsons has a 103.7, significantly higher than his team as a whole.)
-Utah Jazz defensive rating 101.9 Mavs 103.6 (Hayward has a 103.8 def rating, much worse than his team as a whole... Parsons has a 102.5 def rating... better than his team as a whole, and better than Hayward even though Hayward is on a significantly better defensive team.)
-Usage rate... I never said Hayward having a high usage was bad, I said he will have a bigger impact, in the box score, than Parsons simply because his usage is so much higher. In January Hayward had a usage of 28.9! To put that into context Durant was 29.9 in January. Parsons usage was 20.6 in January. Parsons had significantly less plays/opportunities ran for him so again he will never have the same kind of box score impact with that kind of disparity. And as I showed above he's outplaying the rest of the mavs team as a whole in off/def rating meanwhile Hayward is worse than his team as a whole.
-For January Hayward is 21.3ppg 4.7reb 4.7ast 3.1TO on 56.7TS%
-For January Parsons is 16.1ppg 5.6reb 2.8ast 1.4TO on 61.5TS%

7 minutes with zero shots. You're an alleged elite coach. Figure something out. You have to design some sort of play to get your best player a look. That simple. They didn't really even run any backside screens to get him ISOs in the post. All PnR garbage.

They tried to get him the ball, on more than one occasion, fact is Dirk played 40min and he had to play the final 7:30 of the game(minus a few defensive subs) and followed that with 5min of OT. He looked tired, he couldn't seal his man to get an entry pass in the post. He started off hot and he had opportunities leading up to those last 2min of the 4th and then in OT to hit some shots also but missed, sometimes they just don't go in. I would like for him to get the last shot also but it wasn't like the Mavs did not try to get him the ball. The reason they run PnR is he can't play prolonged mins in the post, Dirk himself has said that he has to limit his time in the post because he simply can't handle it physically. If anything be upset that the 37yr old GOAT has to play prolonged mins on a nightly basis and can barely get rest because our offense is that bad without him.

Well, that's simply untrue. Clearly they didn't "expose Dirk all game long" when he was a +15 and the next best Mav was +3. FYI, Dirk has a positive DBPM, 1.7 Defensive Win Shares, and the defense is a net negative with him on the bench.

Does Dirk has issues with certain matchups? Sure. Young, athletic guys like Trey Lyles might give him trouble. But the Jazz aren't going to Trey Lyles at the end of games. And the Rockets game is a poor example...Ariza simply shot out of his ass. Again, if there were a better alternative it might be worth it. However, Powell and Felton are *not* better alternatives. Proof is in the pudding...watch the film. Literally almost every time Dirk is taken out for a defensive substitution, the other team *immediately* scores. Jazz were 3-3 in around 16 total seconds in such situations tonight...

I love Dirk, but come on... first off, again with the +-... You have to take him out, when you can defensively. Seriously, the dude played 40mins and the only rest he got down the stretch was those defensive subs. He is and always will be a better defender than people give him credit for so I'm not surprised his defensive numbers are better than expected. That doesn't change the fact that the mavs are trying to hide him every game. You can expose someone without losing in the +-. Easy layups, wide open shots, that is still being exposed. I'd have to watch the game to count every single play to see if maybe "expose" was too strong of a word but my memory of this season so far is that he needs to be taken out defensively in those situations. And Ariza "shot out his ass" because he was shooting jumpers that were so wide open he may as well have been in an open gym. The fact that Utah went 3-3 in those situations with Dirk on the bench means nothing. Did you see the shots they hit? They were all contested(maybe with the exception of the hayward step back on zaza which dirk wouldnt be able to help with), you have to give them credit for hitting those shots. And it's not just the individual matchups like you are talking about. It's hardest for him in the PnR. No matter who it is, he is slow to rotate and can't show hard, when he does show hard other players have to scramble behind him and it almost always ends in a wide open 3 or layup/dunk. You say "proof is in the pudding" well the "proof" that Dirk has a hard time in the PnR is something that isn't rly up for debate. Those timeouts we take to get Dirk out for defense is his only rest late in games. If we would have done it your way last night Dirk would have played from 7:30 left in the 4th to the end of OT without coming out of the game. Please think about how ridiculous that sounds for a 37yr old Dirk. Again the bigger issue is we don't have a better option on the bench to help out in those situations but taking Dirk out for defense and using a TO isn't something that is an issue to me.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by dirt_dobber

I detest OT losses - Mavs shot the ball 75 times the Jazz shot 92.
The NBA avg for shot attempts in a game is right around 90. Our tempo and pace of play are a big ?

AND - Up 3, with 3 seconds left, Jazz player has the ball INSIDE the perimeter, and we don't foul...AND the Jazz had no time outs....

Makes it even more disturbing that the Jazz have the worst pace in the NBA and out shot us by that much. Offense and Defense seem to have fallen off a cliff. 75 shots in a game that went to OT... that is pretty gross. We did have 41 free throws though so I think that had a pretty good impact on our FGA's.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

+- rly is not an individual stat it's more of a lineup stat. Gobert was a -16 you really thing Gobert was the worst player on the court last night? Deron and Felton are both at a -.6 per game on the season. I guess that means we can trade away dwill because felton is just as good. Whiteside is -.4 per game on the season, guess we shouldn't go after him because his reserves are making a better impact. Tyreke Evans has a higher +- per game for the season than Anthony Davis... those are just a few quick ones I noticed in 5 minutes. +- means very little individually.

As for the stats you posted... You are using season long stats gauging 2 guys as equals when one, as I said, basically had his season start 6 weeks ago. Also our offense has fallen off. Jazz have the lowest pace in the NBA which is why their offense is poor overall. Their team off rating for the season is identical to ours though, and their ts% is nearly identical. And since January our off rating is lower than theirs so I wouldn't call our offense, especially over 15 games, better.

For the Month of January-
-Utah Jazz offensive rating 106 Mavs 101.3 (Hayward has a 105.4, worse than his team as a whole... Parsons has a 103.7, significantly higher than his team as a whole.)
-Utah Jazz defensive rating 101.9 Mavs 103.6 (Hayward has a 103.8 def rating, much worse than his team as a whole... Parsons has a 102.5 def rating... better than his team as a whole, and better than Hayward even though Hayward is on a significantly better defensive team.)
-Usage rate... I never said Hayward having a high usage was bad, I said he will have a bigger impact, in the box score, than Parsons simply because his usage is so much higher. In January Hayward had a usage of 28.9! To put that into context Durant was 29.9 in January. Parsons usage was 20.6 in January. Parsons had significantly less plays/opportunities ran for him so again he will never have the same kind of box score impact with that kind of disparity. And as I showed above he's outplaying the rest of the mavs team as a whole in off/def rating meanwhile Hayward is worse than his team as a whole.
-For January Hayward is 21.3ppg 4.7reb 4.7ast 3.1TO on 56.7TS%
-For January Parsons is 16.1ppg 5.6reb 2.8ast 1.4TO on 61.5TS%


They tried to get him the ball, on more than one occasion, fact is Dirk played 40min and he had to play the final 7:30 of the game(minus a few defensive subs) and followed that with 5min of OT. He looked tired, he couldn't seal his man to get an entry pass in the post. He started off hot and he had opportunities leading up to those last 2min of the 4th and then in OT to hit some shots also but missed, sometimes they just don't go in. I would like for him to get the last shot also but it wasn't like the Mavs did not try to get him the ball. The reason they run PnR is he can't play prolonged mins in the post, Dirk himself has said that he has to limit his time in the post because he simply can't handle it physically. If anything be upset that the 37yr old GOAT has to play prolonged mins on a nightly basis and can barely get rest because our offense is that bad without him.

This is my gripe. Dirk takes a HUGE discount to go out and get players, hes getting older and needs minutes reduced, YET hes putting in just as much time as those making double his salary. Its aggravating but its the reality of the situation.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

This is my gripe. Dirk takes a HUGE discount to go out and get players, hes getting older and needs minutes reduced, YET hes putting in just as much time as those making double his salary. Its aggravating but its the reality of the situation.

Agree but who is to really blame and what could have been done to help that situation?

Star FAs aren't attracted to this organization for some reason and our trade assets have been few over the past several years so it's nearly impossible to bring in players that Rick would trust to be as clutch and consistent as Dirk.

Nearly every decent player we've acquired since 2011, including Odom, was considered to be a great pickup in the opinions of most on this board so it's hard to point a finger at anyone.

It has become pretty obvious to me that Dirk will be the catalyst as long as he is wearing a Mavs uniform.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by rimrocker

Agree but who is to really blame and what could have been done to help that situation?

Thats a long conversation not worth getting into, but the beginning and the end of it is Mark Cuban and Donnie and their drafting woes in my opinion.

[10AMGareDuNord]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

+- rly is not an individual stat it's more of a lineup stat. Gobert was a -16 you really thing Gobert was the worst player on the court last night? Deron and Felton are both at a -.6 per game on the season. I guess that means we can trade away dwill because felton is just as good. Whiteside is -.4 per game on the season, guess we shouldn't go after him because his reserves are making a better impact. Tyreke Evans has a higher +- per game for the season than Anthony Davis... those are just a few quick ones I noticed in 5 minutes. +- means very little individually.

As for the stats you posted... You are using season long stats gauging 2 guys as equals when one, as I said, basically had his season start 6 weeks ago. Also our offense has fallen off. Jazz have the lowest pace in the NBA which is why their offense is poor overall. Their team off rating for the season is identical to ours though, and their ts% is nearly identical. And since January our off rating is lower than theirs so I wouldn't call our offense, especially over 15 games, better.

For the Month of January-
-Utah Jazz offensive rating 106 Mavs 101.3 (Hayward has a 105.4, worse than his team as a whole... Parsons has a 103.7, significantly higher than his team as a whole.)
-Utah Jazz defensive rating 101.9 Mavs 103.6 (Hayward has a 103.8 def rating, much worse than his team as a whole... Parsons has a 102.5 def rating... better than his team as a whole, and better than Hayward even though Hayward is on a significantly better defensive team.)
-Usage rate... I never said Hayward having a high usage was bad, I said he will have a bigger impact, in the box score, than Parsons simply because his usage is so much higher. In January Hayward had a usage of 28.9! To put that into context Durant was 29.9 in January. Parsons usage was 20.6 in January. Parsons had significantly less plays/opportunities ran for him so again he will never have the same kind of box score impact with that kind of disparity. And as I showed above he's outplaying the rest of the mavs team as a whole in off/def rating meanwhile Hayward is worse than his team as a whole.
-For January Hayward is 21.3ppg 4.7reb 4.7ast 3.1TO on 56.7TS%
-For January Parsons is 16.1ppg 5.6reb 2.8ast 1.4TO on 61.5TS%


They tried to get him the ball, on more than one occasion, fact is Dirk played 40min and he had to play the final 7:30 of the game(minus a few defensive subs) and followed that with 5min of OT. He looked tired, he couldn't seal his man to get an entry pass in the post. He started off hot and he had opportunities leading up to those last 2min of the 4th and then in OT to hit some shots also but missed, sometimes they just don't go in. I would like for him to get the last shot also but it wasn't like the Mavs did not try to get him the ball. The reason they run PnR is he can't play prolonged mins in the post, Dirk himself has said that he has to limit his time in the post because he simply can't handle it physically. If anything be upset that the 37yr old GOAT has to play prolonged mins on a nightly basis and can barely get rest because our offense is that bad without him.

I love Dirk, but come on... first off, again with the +-... You have to take him out, when you can defensively. Seriously, the dude played 40mins and the only rest he got down the stretch was those defensive subs. He is and always will be a better defender than people give him credit for so I'm not surprised his defensive numbers are better than expected. That doesn't change the fact that the mavs are trying to hide him every game. You can expose someone without losing in the +-. Easy layups, wide open shots, that is still being exposed. I'd have to watch the game to count every single play to see if maybe "expose" was too strong of a word but my memory of this season so far is that he needs to be taken out defensively in those situations. And Ariza "shot out his ass" because he was shooting jumpers that were so wide open he may as well have been in an open gym. The fact that Utah went 3-3 in those situations with Dirk on the bench means nothing. Did you see the shots they hit? They were all contested(maybe with the exception of the hayward step back on zaza which dirk wouldnt be able to help with), you have to give them credit for hitting those shots. And it's not just the individual matchups like you are talking about. It's hardest for him in the PnR. No matter who it is, he is slow to rotate and can't show hard, when he does show hard other players have to scramble behind him and it almost always ends in a wide open 3 or layup/dunk. You say "proof is in the pudding" well the "proof" that Dirk has a hard time in the PnR is something that isn't rly up for debate. Those timeouts we take to get Dirk out for defense is his only rest late in games. If we would have done it your way last night Dirk would have played from 7:30 left in the 4th to the end of OT without coming out of the game. Please think about how ridiculous that sounds for a 37yr old Dirk. Again the bigger issue is we don't have a better option on the bench to help out in those situations but taking Dirk out for defense and using a TO isn't something that is an issue to me.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rp...RPM/position/5

[MavzMan]

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rp...RPM/position/5

I wouldn't put a lot of stock into that either. Looking at PG ..

- take #5 Ricky Rubio over #6 John Wall?
- take #12 Matthew Delavadova over #13 Damian Lillard?
- take #18 Patty Mills over #19 Tony Parker?

Stats are fun to look at and play with, but there is not a single stat that gives true clarity on players value so they should always be taken with a grain of salt. Whatever that saying means.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Thats a long conversation not worth getting into, but the beginning and the end of it is Mark Cuban and Donnie and their drafting woes in my opinion.

It's kind of a catch 22 for me when looking at Donnie's ability/inability to draft.

One way to look at it is that he is just lousy at drafting.

But another way to look at it is that he has made some really good moves in trades, often using draft picks, and picked up some decent pieces to make us a perpetual 45-50 win team for the past decade or more and yielded a championship in the process.

So I think it's more fair to say that Donnie and Mark don't view and prioritize the draft (and draft picks) as picking up players to develop as much as they do as trade assets to procure more seasoned veterans to play with Dirk. When/if we ever decide to build from scratch the priority and focus might change to evaluating youth. My guess is that it won't change as long as RC is the coach and draft picks will continue to be used as trade pieces.

[10AMGareDuNord]

Originally Posted by MavzMan

I wouldn't put a lot of stock into that either. Looking at PG ..

- take #5 Ricky Rubio over #6 John Wall?
- take #12 Matthew Delavadova over #13 Damian Lillard?
- take #18 Patty Mills over #19 Tony Parker?

Stats are fun to look at and play with, but there is not a single stat that gives true clarity on players value so they should always be taken with a grain of salt. Whatever that saying means.

Nice selective choosing there. Ignore the fact that the highest guys are Curry, Leonard, LBJ, Draymond, as expected.

That said, Parker has been garbage this year. Delly has been *invaluable* to the Cavs. He plays fantastic D, shoots well over 40% from 3, and did (he still might), have the best assist to TO ratio in the NBA. He has a *huge* positive +/-. One of the best in the NBA. So not shocked by that. Rubio is another *huge* impact guy. One of the best PG defenders in the NBA and has a crazy positive +/-.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

Nice selective choosing there. Ignore the fact that the highest guys are Curry, Leonard, LBJ, Draymond, as expected.

That said, Parker has been garbage this year. Delly has been *invaluable* to the Cavs. He plays fantastic D, shoots well over 40% from 3, and did (he still might), have the best assist to TO ratio in the NBA. He has a *huge* positive +/-. One of the best in the NBA. So not shocked by that. Rubio is another *huge* impact guy. One of the best PG defenders in the NBA and has a crazy positive +/-.

RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

+- is more of a lineup stat, I don't know how many times I need to say this, but go ahead and keep bringing up +- like it's a great indicator of individual performance. You can believe Hayward is better it rly doesn't matter I'm not even arguing about who is better(significantly better I'd argue though). It was when you said his impact on both ends is greater. There are more outliers than the ones brought up above. For starters Anthony Davis being 13th amongst PF's. So 12 other PF's have a greater impact according to you than Anthony Davis... Including guys like Amir Johnson, Marvin Williams, and Channing Frye. Vucevic has 37 centers in front of him... 37! Meanwhile apparently Olynyk is the 7th best center in the NBA if you go by rpm. I'm rly not going to go through all of them, there are enough that you should see an issue with using RPM as an indicator of individual performance.

[10AMGareDuNord]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

+- is more of a lineup stat, I don't know how many times I need to say this, but go ahead and keep bringing up +- like it's a great indicator of individual performance. You can believe Hayward is better it rly doesn't matter I'm not even arguing about who is better(significantly better I'd argue though). It was when you said his impact on both ends is greater. There are more outliers than the ones brought up above. For starters Anthony Davis being 13th amongst PF's. So 12 other PF's have a greater impact according to you than Anthony Davis... Including guys like Amir Johnson, Marvin Williams, and Channing Frye. Vucevic has 37 centers in front of him... 37! Meanwhile apparently Olynyk is the 7th best center in the NBA if you go by rpm. I'm rly not going to go through all of them, there are enough that you should see an issue with using RPM as an indicator of individual performance.

A. I don't "believe" Hayward is better than Parsons. That's simply an inarguable fact. There is literally not one relevant stat that has favored Parsons throughout their careers.

B. I take it you don't watch many non-Mavs games? I'd argue there have been *more* than 12 impactful PFs than Davis this year. He has massively regressed. Often hurt and leaving games, much less efficient, lazy, minimal effort given. Stuffs stats once game is out of reach. Poor defense. He's a big, big reason that team has not lived up to their potential. Yes, Frye is an outlier (let's consider he's played so few minutes). There are outliers in any equation and stats should always be contextualized. I watch a ton of NBA games. Marvin Williams has been *huge* for the Hornets this year, so that doesn't surprise me. But again, all stats have outliers and need to be contextualized, which you aren't doing. You're simply isolating the stat and focusing on outliers. You can do that for ANY stat (PER, raw stats, etc.) Overall, there's a reason the basketball community takes RPM very seriously.

C. Plus/Minus is *not* simply a lineup stat. There's a reason guys like Dirk, Manu, KG, etc. year in and year out were top 10 in the NBA in +/-, and it ain't coincidence. It's a lineup stat...is that why Rubio has a significantly higher +/- than every other Minny starter?

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

A. I don't "believe" Hayward is better than Parsons. That's simply an inarguable fact. There is literally not one relevant stat that has favored Parsons throughout their careers.

Hayward has higher usage. Most all stats will favor him simply due to the fact he has more plays run for him. That shouldn't be difficult to understand. Since Parsons has been healthy tho I gave you 3 stats he was better at though. TS%, REB's, and DefRtg. Funny... those 3 stats are not usage dependent. Weird how that works.

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

B. I take it you don't watch many non-Mavs games? I'd argue there have been *more* than 12 impactful PFs than Davis this year. He has massively regressed. Often hurt and leaving games, much less efficient, lazy, minimal effort given. Stuffs stats once game is out of reach. Poor defense. He's a big, big reason that team has not lived up to their potential. Yes, Frye is an outlier (let's consider he's played so few minutes). There are outliers in any equation and stats should always be contextualized. I watch a ton of NBA games. Marvin Williams has been *huge* for the Hornets this year, so that doesn't surprise me. But again, all stats have outliers and need to be contextualized, which you aren't doing. You're simply isolating the stat and focusing on outliers. You can do that for ANY stat (PER, raw stats, etc.) Overall, there's a reason the basketball community takes RPM very seriously.

I watch enough basketball to know that AD effects the game more than 12 other PF's. You are arguing about a stat showing it as an individual stat when it clearly states that it factors in teammates. Seriously dude it's not like there are 3-4 "outliers". Every Maverick outside of Dirk, Zaza, and Powell is a negative in RPM. Are you seriously sitting here saying you have watched every Mavs game and have concluded that D.Will negatively impacts this team? That Powell playing out of position has a positive impact on this team when everyone here complains about how Powell is in there and not a true center? Yet this stat of yours shows Powell positively impacts this team playing at the 5 while McGee and Mejri do not. Oh that's prolly another outlier right(smh)? Harrison Barnes being 44th on this list must be another outlier. It definitely can't be that he plays 4th quarters without Steph, Klay and others on the floor with him causing it to scew negatively, nope can't be that. How many examples does it take for it not be an outlier? How can you not read the description of the stat itself and not see it says clear as day that it factors in teammates and opponents... that sure sounds like lineups to me but hey whatever don't let logic stop you from whatever it is you are doing.

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

C. Plus/Minus is *not* simply a lineup stat. There's a reason guys like Dirk, Manu, KG, etc. year in and year out were top 10 in the NBA in +/-, and it ain't coincidence. It's a lineup stat...is that why Rubio has a significantly higher +/- than every other Minny starter?

Superstar players who carry their teams being almost immune to a lineup stat. Yeah that's really "breaking news". Dirk carried this team forever, and it shocks you that he carries lineups? The only thing I can say for sure about Parsons as an individual according to this stat, which again includes him being on minutes restrictions but you for whatever reason continue to ignore that and everything else as well, is that Parsons is not a superstar(breaking news).

Srsly according to this stat Zaza has generated us more wins than Dirk. I like a lot Zaza but no. Everything this team still does Dirk is at the center of, as pathetic as that may or may not be to be still carried by the 37yr old goat. Then again I'm sure this is yet another "outlier" to you.

And one more thing...

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

B. STOP F**KING TAKE DIRK OUT FOR DEFENSIVE SUBSTITUTIONS LATE IN GAMES. This is something RC has done for years, and something I've bemoaned for years. Not only does it burn timeouts trying to get him in on offense, and often leaves him (the best FT shooter on the team, and 3rd in the NBA), on the bench when the team needs FTs, but it FLAT OUT NEVER WORKS. NEVER. I'm not even being hyperbolic here. The Jazz were 3-3 on plays after Dirk was taken out. Not only do teams always score, but they score immediately with little clock wasted. It's surreal. Dirk, at 37, is still a plus defender on this team, and more importantly, a *smart* defender who isn't going to lose his man or get lost. He also does a good job of telling defenders where they need to be. If we had a smart, athletic, plus defending big off the bench to bring it, I'd maybe understand it. But we don't. He's replacing Dirk with Powell (who, despite his energy, is a far worse defender than Dirk with less length and an inferior BBALL IQ), and, for some utterly insane reason, Felton, who is a terrible defender, constantly loses his man, and, as aforementioned, is one of the worst in the NBA at fighting through screens. That's one of RC's issues...he's so GD stubborn and won't realize when he's wrong. Speaking of...

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

FYI, Dirk has a positive DBPM, 1.7 Defensive Win Shares, and the defense is a net negative with him on the bench.

Your own stat-
Powell DRPM 2.52
Dirk DRPM 0.82

So I'm obviously confused here... According to this amazing stat which you keep saying has nothing to do with lineups Powell is quite clearly much better than Dirk. Yet you can't stand RC taking Dirk out situationally because he is so obviously better than Powell, even used the words "far worse defender". Oh and just to throw another "outlier"... Kevin freaking love is the 7th best DEFENSIVE RPM PF in the NBA according to this stat... And unlike Frye he plays 32mins a game.

[10AMGareDuNord]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Hayward has higher usage. Most all stats will favor him simply due to the fact he has more plays run for him. That shouldn't be difficult to understand. Since Parsons has been healthy tho I gave you 3 stats he was better at though. TS%, REB's, and DefRtg. Funny... those 3 stats are not usage dependent. Weird how that works.



I watch enough basketball to know that AD effects the game more than 12 other PF's. You are arguing about a stat showing it as an individual stat when it clearly states that it factors in teammates. Seriously dude it's not like there are 3-4 "outliers". Every Maverick outside of Dirk, Zaza, and Powell is a negative in RPM. Are you seriously sitting here saying you have watched every Mavs game and have concluded that D.Will negatively impacts this team? That Powell playing out of position has a positive impact on this team when everyone here complains about how Powell is in there and not a true center? Yet this stat of yours shows Powell positively impacts this team playing at the 5 while McGee and Mejri do not. Oh that's prolly another outlier right(smh)? Harrison Barnes being 44th on this list must be another outlier. It definitely can't be that he plays 4th quarters without Steph, Klay and others on the floor with him causing it to scew negatively, nope can't be that. How many examples does it take for it not be an outlier? How can you not read the description of the stat itself and not see it says clear as day that it factors in teammates and opponents... that sure sounds like lineups to me but hey whatever don't let logic stop you from whatever it is you are doing.



Superstar players who carry their teams being almost immune to a lineup stat. Yeah that's really "breaking news". Dirk carried this team forever, and it shocks you that he carries lineups? The only thing I can say for sure about Parsons as an individual according to this stat, which again includes him being on minutes restrictions but you for whatever reason continue to ignore that and everything else as well, is that Parsons is not a superstar(breaking news).

Srsly according to this stat Zaza has generated us more wins than Dirk. I like a lot Zaza but no. Everything this team still does Dirk is at the center of, as pathetic as that may or may not be to be still carried by the 37yr old goat. Then again I'm sure this is yet another "outlier" to you.

And one more thing...



Your own stat-
Powell DRPM 2.52
Dirk DRPM 0.82

So I'm obviously confused here... According to this amazing stat which you keep saying has nothing to do with lineups Powell is quite clearly much better than Dirk. Yet you can't stand RC taking Dirk out situationally because he is so obviously better than Powell, even used the words "far worse defender". Oh and just to throw another "outlier"... Kevin freaking love is the 7th best DEFENSIVE RPM PF in the NBA according to this stat... And unlike Frye he plays 32mins a game.

You aren't listening and continue to straw man, so I'm done.

FYI, PER has *nothing* to do with usage.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by 10AMGareDuNord

You aren't listening and continue to straw man, so I'm done.

FYI, PER has *nothing* to do with usage.

Sure sounds like a "take my ball and go home" attitude. Guess it's also good thing I said "most all stats"... but you're partially wrong there also. PER has no direct link with usage but it's pretty simple to see the indirect link(mainly as it pertains to players playing starter minutes). Point is your using a +- stat and taking it out of it's context and then using season long stats comparing two players when one was on mins restrictions. Then you are ignoring other stats that don't support your argument. The lesser used FIC stat has Parsons as better than Hayward since January despite the fact Parsons does not contribute to orebs and has way less playmaking opportunities than Hayward. FIC weighs playmaking and offensive rebounds higher while weighing FGA's less(I could be mistaken on this part but I'm pretty sure). Parsons has more Win shares since January as well, I noticed you used that stat and neglected to mention that since getting healthy Parsons is better in that as well.

Again Idc if you think Hayward is better but how bout using stats in their correct context and stop ignoring the ones that do not support your opinion then state that there is no argument, that -

I don't "believe" Hayward is better than Parsons. That's simply an inarguable fact. There is literally not one relevant stat that has favored Parsons throughout their careers.

Not one stat... except that since being healthy he has a better Ortg, Drtg, Wshare, FIC, TS%... god knows what else but you should get the point... but you are right... since being healthy Parsons PER is 18.4 and Hayward is 20.9 That may be a small sample size being only some 15-20 games or whatever but it's more relevant than you using a stat that includes 20 games or so of a guy on restrictions coming off major surgery. For the record though I said a while back that Hayward has a higher ceiling than Parsons, because of his superior athletic ability IMO. But I also think Parsons fits us better because he is a superior shooter from 3pt to me.

[10AMGareDuNord]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Sure sounds like a "take my ball and go home" attitude. Guess it's also good thing I said "most all stats"... but you're partially wrong there also. PER has no direct link with usage but it's pretty simple to see the indirect link(mainly as it pertains to players playing starter minutes). Point is your using a +- stat and taking it out of it's context and then using season long stats comparing two players when one was on mins restrictions. Then you are ignoring other stats that don't support your argument. The lesser used FIC stat has Parsons as better than Hayward since January despite the fact Parsons does not contribute to orebs and has way less playmaking opportunities than Hayward. FIC weighs playmaking and offensive rebounds higher while weighing FGA's less(I could be mistaken on this part but I'm pretty sure). Parsons has more Win shares since January as well, I noticed you used that stat and neglected to mention that since getting healthy Parsons is better in that as well.

Again Idc if you think Hayward is better but how bout using stats in their correct context and stop ignoring the ones that do not support your opinion then state that there is no argument, that -

Not one stat... except that since being healthy he has a better Ortg, Drtg, Wshare, FIC, TS%... god knows what else but you should get the point... but you are right... since being healthy Parsons PER is 18.4 and Hayward is 20.9 That may be a small sample size being only some 15-20 games or whatever but it's more relevant than you using a stat that includes 20 games or so of a guy on restrictions coming off major surgery. For the record though I said a while back that Hayward has a higher ceiling than Parsons, because of his superior athletic ability IMO. But I also think Parsons fits us better because he is a superior shooter from 3pt to me.

Ah, still cherry picking, I see.

P.S.,

*You're. :]