The 2003 NBA Draft revisited

[LRB]

Originally posted by: alby
Personally, I hate +/- figures because Finley playing with Dirk, Jet, Jho, Damp better be higher than that of let's say Marquis with Devin, Henderson, KVH, etc.

Why should the +/- be necessarily better for Fin? Sure he played with better players possibly, but that would mean he was playing against better players versus stack and Quis who were facing lineup of nonstarters much more often than Fin. It all evens out in the end. In Fact Fin's numbers should have been worse if anything. If with Stack or Quis were better than Fin, then it should show up more versus inferior competition.

[alby]

Our starting lineup is in the top 5 in the NBA, so +/- should be high for any starter on this team.

[LRB]

Supposedly our bench was top 5 as well.

[foglemann]

LRB, guess what, Marquis is only going into his third year, with about an eighth of the experience of Stack or Finley had in their respective first two years. How is it that Finley and Stack both got better after there first two years in the league and beyond, yet Marquis is not able to and hence can't get on the court to get better. So the guy has to be on the bench forever cause he can't hit the three and doesnt have a top 10 FT% in the league. He's not going to get better by sitting on the bench. Neither of Stack nor Finley had to when they got into the league, cause they were both on crap teams. Marquis has been buried because he's on a consistent playoff team and shined when he is given the time to do so on the court. He has his shortcomings, for sure, but I see them as things he can improve on and still be more productive than Stack or Finley if given the exact same time in a game. Finley and Stack are who they are cause they have been in the league for a long time. Until Marquis is a six or seven year player, and still hasn't gotten better, then I will write him off as who he is, but until then, I have all the confedence in the world that he will improve his game and get better each year.

This is rediclous, I don't understand why you expect him to be perfect with hardly any experience.

[grndmstr_c]

Not to mention that when you do a lineup breakdown comparing player pairings or 5-man lineups Quis is clearly the odd man out. Trying to attribute it to the guys he's playing with simply doesn't cut it.

There are some arguments that can be made for Stack based on the success of certain lineups (for example, the +/- for Stack with the rest of the starters minus Fin was excellent, albeit with a winning percentage that lagged significantly behind the Fin-inclusive starting lineup), but on balance my read from a more in-depth look at the +/- still gives Fin the edge.

[LRB]

Originally posted by: foglemann
LRB, guess what, Marquis is only going into his third year, with about an eighth of the experience of Stack or Finley had in their respective first two years. How is it that Finley and Stack both got better after there first two years in the league and beyond, yet Marquis is not able to and hence can't get on the court to get better. So the guy has to be on the bench forever cause he can't hit the three and doesnt have a top 10 FT% in the league. He's not going to get better by sitting on the bench. Neither of Stack nor Finley had to when they got into the league, cause they were both on crap teams. Marquis has been buried because he's on a consistent playoff team and shined when he is given the time to do so on the court. He has his shortcomings, for sure, but I see them as things he can improve on and still be more productive than Stack or Finley if given the exact same time in a game. Finley and Stack are who they are cause they have been in the league for a long time. Until Marquis is a six or seven year player, and still hasn't gotten better, then I will write him off as who he is, but until then, I have all the confedence in the world that he will improve his game and get better each year.

This is rediclous, I don't understand why you expect him to be perfect with hardly any experience.

1) there is absolutely expectation that Marquis be perfect, no play has been, is, or likely will be.
2) No one is asking Marquis to be in the top 10% of FT shooters to set foot on the court. What is being asked that he be better than the average 2 guard at FT% before getting Starters minutes. Marquis should have to earn his minutes. And if we have better talent, then he should sit and wait his turn. This is a team that had the 4th best record in the NBA last year. Marquis is hear to help the Mavs not the other way around.
3) as far as Marquis being more productive, I haven't seen any numbers from last year to indicate this. Maybe it's a hunch you have. And it's even possible you're right. However, most of the imperical evidences suggests that the Mavs would be better prepared to contend for a championship next season keeping Fin and keeping Marquis as a bench player.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally posted by: LRB

1) there is absolutely expectation that Marquis be perfect, no play has been, is, or likely will be.
2) No one is asking Marquis to be in the top 10% of FT shooters to set foot on the court. What is being asked that he be better than the average 2 guard at FT% before getting Starters minutes. Marquis should have to earn his minutes. And if we have better talent, then he should sit and wait his turn. This is a team that had the 4th best record in the NBA last year. Marquis is hear to help the Mavs not the other way around.
3) as far as Marquis being more productive, I haven't seen any numbers from last year to indicate this. Maybe it's a hunch you have. And it's even possible you're right. However, most of the imperical evidences suggests that the Mavs would be better prepared to contend for a championship next season keeping Fin and keeping Marquis as a bench player.

I concur. Fin should stay and start, Quis should be the 6th man. Stack is the most expendable one of the three IMO.

[foglemann]

Fin IS better than Quis right now. Is he 15 million dollars better than him, I doubt. And Cuban does too. My argument hinges on time. I think Quis will be better than Fin, given time on the court. But with Finley not excepting a role off the bench hinders this obviously. If everything was based on talent alone, we wouldn't have this argument cause we would keep Fin. Fin looks like he's gone, get over it and move on. This whole thing is based on production=salary. Finley gets the benefit of the doubt with fans like yourself since his long tenure and great production over the years. Give Quis time to improve. I never said Quis would be perfect, but the guy has to show what he can do. I just think that almost anyone can get the stats. that Fin got last year on this super talented team.

[LordOverseerMaximus]

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally posted by: foglemann But with Finley not excepting a role off the bench hinders this obviously.

Again, I don't buy that crap at all. AJ decides whether Fin starts or not. Fin might not want to come off the bench, but I seriously doubt that a man with his professionalism would throw some kind of hissy fit over being taken out of the starting lineup. No, rather I imagine, he would play his heart out because he'd have something to prove.

Finley gets the benefit of the doubt with fans like yourself since his long tenure and great production over the years.

No, for me, it has nothing to do with his long tenure. It's about balance. We need balance at the SG position. I see Marquis and Stack as basically the same player. Stack is better right now, and Quis has more potential, but they're both slashers with forgettable shooting range. We need 3 point shooters in the backcourt, and please don't mention Dirk and KVH being good shooters. If we have a starting lineup of Jet, Quis/Stack, Josh, Dirk, and Damp, we are by no means a dangerous team from behind the arc. Terry is a great shooter, yes but the only other guy who can shoot in that lineup is Dirk. And we have different opinions of what Dirk will do next season, but I'm of the opinion that he won't shoot anywhere near as much as we're used to.

[LordOverseerMaximus]

What is being asked that he be better than the average 2 guard at FT% before getting Starters minutes.

Some Career numbers for similar players.

Ricky Davis .815
Gary Payton .728
Paul Pierce. .798
Jason Kidd .778
Vince Carter .788
Ron Mercer .700
Stephon Marbury .791
Allen Iverson .769
Luol Deng .741
Chris Duhon. 731
Kurt Hinrich .797
Lebron James .750
Jamal Tinsley .722
Dwayne Wade . 758
Stever Francis .798
Tracy McGrady .759
Manu Ginobili ..790
Tony Parker .697
Nick Van Exel .798
Quentin Richardson .716
Joe Johnson .757
Larry Hughes .758
Ruben Patterson .652

Yea, what a failure in that area. Let's trade him.

[grndmstr_c]

Who's advocating dumping Marquis? And no list of sub-par free throw shooting guards and small forwards is going to change the fact that Marquis is a subpar shooter for a guard, from the line and from long-range. It's something he clearly needs to work on.

[LordOverseerMaximus]

Sure they are sub-par shooting gaurds. But are they sub-par guards? The simple answer is no. If your idea of a guard is Finley taking fade-away three pointers and never getting to the free throw line then fine. What a waste of playing time. And on top of that not being able to pass worth a damn. Give me Toney Parker, Manu or a combo guy like Larry Hughes or Joe Johnson. I promose that my guards will consistently dominate your guard play 99 percent of time.

[LRB]

Originally posted by: LordOverseerMaximus

Some Career numbers for similar players.

Ricky Davis .815
Gary Payton .728
Paul Pierce. .798
Jason Kidd .778
Vince Carter .788
Ron Mercer .700
Stephon Marbury .791
Allen Iverson .769
Luol Deng .741
Chris Duhon. 731
Kurt Hinrich .797
Lebron James .750
Jamal Tinsley .722
Dwayne Wade . 758
Stever Francis .798
Tracy McGrady .759
Manu Ginobili ..790
Tony Parker .697
Nick Van Exel .798
Quentin Richardson .716
Joe Johnson .757
Larry Hughes .758
Ruben Patterson .652

Yea, what a failure in that area. Let's trade him.

What's so funny about this is that 23 players are listed that play the 1 through 3 positions and 15 of them have higher FT% averages than Quis. If this is a representative sample, and I'm not saying that it is, it would mean Daniels would be in the bottom 35% of the league FT shooting. That's just bad.

But as GMC, said we don't want to cut Marquis by an means. He just needs to improve his game FT shooting and long range shooting. Plenty that he can do to work on that without getting more minutes.

[grndmstr_c]

Again, the problem is that your list can't change the fact that Quis was, unfortunately, a sub-par shooting guard last year.

[LordOverseerMaximus]

I really don't see the debate.

Finley is a aging, static player that cannot create his own shot and can't pass. Daniels is a young, dynamic player that can create his own shot and that also is probably the best passer on the team and that can play both the 2 and 3 spots. Finley is past his prime. Daniels hasn't even come close to his prime and is just a puppy and already has better assist, rebounding, fg %, and steal numbers as a starter. And he can even play point if you need him to do that as well. Daniels in a few years will be a prime Doug Christie. Fin in a few years will be retired and drinking some mixed drink your or me could not afford.

I just don't see the debate. But oh well... I'm sure the Mavs will keep Finley, give him a contract extension and trade Daniels for some scrub back-up center.

[dude1394]

When marquis shows that he is good enough to start he will start. He sure didn't show it last year even when healthy. Until then he'd better work harder, learn how to shoot and how to give up the damn ball.

Until he does that he'll be 8-10th on the team at best.

[alby]

Originally posted by: LRB
Supposedly our bench was top 5 as well.

bench doesnt play as much as the starters, thus bench players should have lower +/- 's

[alby]

Originally posted by: dude1394
Until he does that he'll be 8-10th on the team at best.

just like finley?

[grndmstr_c]

bench doesnt play as much as the starters, thus bench players should have lower +/- 's

unless I'm misunderstanding you, that's not correct.

[mary]

Originally posted by: LordOverseerMaximus
I really don't see the debate.

Finley is a aging, static player that cannot create his own shot and can't pass. Daniels is a young, dynamic player that can create his own shot and that also is probably the best passer on the team and that can play both the 2 and 3 spots. Finley is past his prime. Daniels hasn't even come close to his prime and is just a puppy and already has better assist, rebounding, fg %, and steal numbers as a starter. And he can even play point if you need him to do that as well. Daniels in a few years will be a prime Doug Christie. Fin in a few years will be retired and drinking some mixed drink your or me could not afford.

I just don't see the debate. But oh well... I'm sure the Mavs will keep Finley, give him a contract extension and trade Daniels for some scrub back-up center.

Daniels the best passer on the Mavs? That is fairly humorous. Is that like being the thinnest person at a Weight Watcher meeting? At any rate, Daniel's Assist/TO ratio last year was fairly abysmal and nothing to brag about. He also shot 20 % from 3-point land. Think about that for a moment. Shooting guard? Starting shooting guard? HOLY HELL A GRAND SLAM IN THE 11TH EFFIN INNING, THIS SUCKS.

Sorry, I just lost my will to talk sports.

[foglemann]

The three point debate never ends with some of you. A player now has to hit a three, or at least the majority of the starters on this team have to. Last I checked, the amount of three's you hit had the least to do with whether or not you win a championship compared to any other stat. So lets get as many guys in the starting lineup that can hit a three. That is what we should do, shoot as many of those as we can. That will get the championship we have been wanting for 25 years. I just don't get some of you.

A player has barely any experience and your writing him off as a player that will never get better. The guy avg. like 21/5/5 at the end of his rookie year when everyone's beloved Fin was hurt and he was the talk of the town and now, him being hurt all season and buried behind two vets. he's a scrub. Finley was also hurt, I give him credit for playing, unlike Quis did at the beginning. Finley is a solid shooter, but the reason he's getting cut isn't the fact he can't play, its because he makes too much money for what he does. Some of yall feel that Finley will help us win a championship, and put another team over the top. He's never put us over the top even though he's played a crapload of minutes over the years. Dirk and Nash were the ones to put him over the top.

I am of the opinion that Finley is, at best, a spot up shooter off the bench and should be that on any contending team he goes to, including ours.

[grndmstr_c]

Last I checked, the amount of three's you hit had the least to do with whether or not you win a championship compared to any other stat.

Care to share your source for that stat? Cause I'm thinking that Detroit's 18 for 75 (24%) shooting beyond the arc in the finals just might have had something to do with the outcome of that series.

[alby]

The seven-man rotation of this year's championship teams. The players that can shoot the three are in bold.

Tony Parker
Manu Ginobili
Bruce Bowen
Tim Duncan
Nazr Muhammad
Robert Horry
Brent Barry

Chauncey Billups
Richard Hamilton
Tayshaun Prince
Rasheed Wallace
Ben Wallace
Antonio McDyess
Lindsay Hunter

Dallas Mavericks

Jason Terry
Marquis Daniels ??
Josh Howard
Dirk Nowitzki
Erick Dampier
Jerry Stackhouse
Keith Van Horn

[alby]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c

unless I'm misunderstanding you, that's not correct.

what do you mean

[Misfit Mav]

People seem to be forgetting about Stackhouse in the Fin v. Daniels debate. I think he's somewhat under-rated. He's had a very comparable career to Finley (two all-star appearances, high career point average) and he's a few years younger. I know his shooting is much worse than Fin's, but his ball-handling and ability to get to the line are much better. I still think Daniels is a back-up at this point.

[grndmstr_c]

I mean that the +/- stats that are regularly quoted by myself and others are relatively independent of minutes played, because they're scaled to either 48 minutes or 100 posessions. The only thing the number of minutes affects is the variability of the sample estimates.

[foglemann]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c

Care to share your source for that stat? Cause I'm thinking that Detroit's 18 for 75 (24%) shooting beyond the arc in the finals just might have had something to do with the outcome of that series.

grnd, it did come out of my ass, but Phx led the league in three's and if I had to guess, a team that lead the league in three's didn't win the championship the same year. Three's are overrated.

Detroit had more problems scoring everywhere, just not three's in that series.

[alby]

Originally posted by: foglemann

grnd, it did come out of my ass, but Phx led the league in three's and if I had to guess, a team that lead the league in three's didn't win the championship the same year. Three's are overrated.

Detroit had more problems scoring everywhere, just not three's in that series.

Yeah, I'm sure Sac led the league in threes a few years ago, look what they've become. I'm sure the Mavs were near the top on threes as well for a few years, look where that got us.

[Five-ofan]

not a big deal but Rasheed is a not a good 3pt shooter. 31% is not that impressive. HE is such an incredible waste of talent. He is the arguably 3rd most talented player since the 90s behind jordan and webber and he is a role player. That is such a waste. And it is because he wants to take 3s

[LRB]

The three point debate never ends with some of you. A player now has to hit a three, or at least the majority of the starters on this team have to

It's about spacing the floor and the being a legit threat for a 3ptr is a major part of that. Without that our offense bogs down, especially in the playoffs. We need the contributions of Josh and Damp too much to pull them and neither is a legit threat from 3. Josh is at least better than Quis at the midrange game though. But we need our 2 guard to be someone that the defense must respect as a shooter.

A player has barely any experience and your writing him off as a player that will never get better.

I haven't read any posts where Quis is being written off. The ones I have read just say he's not ready YET. Quis needs to dedicate himself this summer to developing a legit long distance shot. No reason that he can't do that if he works hard enough IMO.

Some of yall feel that Finley will help us win a championship, and put another team over the top. He's never put us over the top even though he's played a crapload of minutes over the years.

and we haven't had as much overall talent as we do now either. Just because he hasn't done it on less talented teams, doesn't mean that he can't put a team over the top on a more talented team. By your same argument we should trade Dirk because obviously he is incapable of leading a team to a championship since he's had a crapload of minutes and has never done it before.

Finely is far more than a spot up shooter even though that is what he does best. If you can't tell the difference between a steve Kerr and a michael finley then I don't believe that there is any point in discussing this further.

[mary]

The three point debate never ends with some of you. A player now has to hit a three, or at least the majority of the starters on this team have to. Last I checked, the amount of three's you hit had the least to do with whether or not you win a championship compared to any other stat. So lets get as many guys in the starting lineup that can hit a three. That is what we should do, shoot as many of those as we can. That will get the championship we have been wanting for 25 years. I just don't get some of you.

Apparently Greg Popovich thinks 3 point shooting is fairly important to winning a championship, he went out and picked up a 3-point shooter after losing to the Lakers last year. I'm sure he didn't recruit Brent just for Mrs. Barry's cooking.

I don't guess he gets it either.

Nobody is advocating we fill the team up with good 3 point shooters. You need outside shooting, period.

[LRB]

Apparently Greg Popovich thinks 3 point shooting

San Antonio was 9th best in the league at 3pt accuracy, so your point is backed up Mary. All we're asking is Quis be better than average, ie better than 50% of starting 2 guards in the league before he gets the start. To win a championship, it looks like you probably need to be in the top 33% or better.

[grndmstr_c]

foglemann, I tend to agree that teams that rely on threes as much as the Suns did this year don't do themselves a ton of favors. The reason falls right out of the fundamental laws of variability in samples from binomial distributions (binomial distributions describe the probability functions for either/or events such as flipping a coin or shooting a basket). Basically, it's pretty much unavoidable that you're going to go through more and longer cold-spells when you rely on low percentage shots like three pointers, which isn't a very good thing in a format like the playoffs. I'm not saying a team needs to take a ton of three point shots, though. I'm saying that teams need to be able to make a good percentage of the long jumpers they take.

Now, on the surface it may look like the Mavs are in good shape with their three point shooting. Dirk, JT, and Keith can all shoot it well, and Devin looks to have some potential in that regard. My problem, though, is that with the exception of Keith, who can only make it onto the floor for about 10 mpg in the playoffs in a traditional lineup, none of those guys are the one's who figure to be waiting in the corners for an open look. Dirk's going to be in the post or facing up from 15 feet much of the time, and Jason and Devin are going to have the ball in their hands a lot. It's really tremendously helpful to have a guy who can play off the ball who's ability to hit a good percentage from outside demands attention from the defense. Even if he's not shooting a ton of threes he's opening up the floor for the rest of the offense to run efficiently, and that's precisely what the Mavs are going to be missing if they waive Fin.

There are ways to get around it, of course. If Terry and/or Devin can learn to run a better pick-and-roll with Dirk that will put all of them in a better position to put pressure on the defense with their ability to hit the long ball. Likewise, if Marquis can show that the end of his rookie season was more than a tease and can handle more of the ball-handling duties, that could allow Terry and Harris to occasionally play more like SG's on the offensive end. The problem, of course, is that if those are our only two contingency plans we're basically relying on two things that didn't at all work out as hoped last year to all of a sudden start to work for us next year. It might happen, but those kinds of bets will break you more often than they'll make you.

[alby]

Lebron James went from taking 217 three-point shots at 29% his rookie year to taking 308 at 35.1%

Marquis, Josh, and Devin obviously can all improve, they just need to put in the gym time.

MJ at the 2 never really had a three-point shot, but he's the exception to the rule no doubt.

[alby]

Btw, Stackhouse did shoot 40% from three in the playoffs

[grndmstr_c]

35% from the corners on uncontested threes is about as much optimism as I could allow myself regarding Stack.

[LRB]

MJ at the 2 never really had a three-point shot, but he's the exception to the rule no doubt.

First of all Marquis doesn't have enough talent to deem him worthy of carrying Jordan's jock. Secondly, Jordan shot a respectable 32.7% from three for his career. That is amazing considering for most of his early carreer he rarely took a 3pt shot unless the shot clock was on his back. But Jordan had several years where he shot quite well from 3. And unlike Quis, Jordan has a killer midrange shot. Many consider him to be the best midrange shooter of his era (one that include Larry Bird BTW). Jordan's 18 to 20 foot jumper was a thing of beauty unless you're Craig Ehlo that is.

[alby]

I think Marquis can be a Richard Hamilton like player, but instead of curlng off screens to get his midrange, Marquis can be able to use the post for his.

[LRB]

Originally posted by: alby
I think Marquis can be a Richard Hamilton like player, but instead of curlng off screens to get his midrange, Marquis can be able to use the post for his.

Not if the other team has packed it in with shot blockers in a zone because they don't respect our outside shooting. Even Shaq needs people who can hit the 3 to open the post up for him.