Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention

[Evilmav2]

Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention

By Susan Page, USA TODAY
Last week's Democratic convention boosted voters' impressions of John Kerry but failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. (Related item: Poll results)
In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Bush led Kerry 50%-46% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was at 2%.

The survey showed Kerry losing 1 percentage point and Bush gaining 4 percentage points from a poll taken the week before the Boston convention.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/-4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention.

USA TODAY extended its survey to Sunday to get a fuller picture of what's happening.

A Newsweek poll taken Thursday and Friday gave the Democratic ticket a 49%-42% lead. Over three weeks, that reflected a 4-point "bounce" for Kerry, the smallest ever in the Newsweek poll.

Among registered voters in the USA TODAY poll, Kerry and Bush each had 47%. Bush was up 4 points, Kerry unchanged from the pre-convention survey.

Analysts said the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say their minds are made up and won't change. "The convention, typically a kicking-off point for a party, is now merely a reaffirmation" of where voters stand, said David Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll.

"In a race this tight, the polls are going to be all over the place," said Stephanie Cutter, Kerry's communications director. "Most importantly, voters now clearly trust John Kerry more than Bush to lead and defend America."

But Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said "history doesn't bode well" for Kerry. Since World War II, the three challengers who have unseated presidents held clear leads after their conventions.

Democratic leaders have expressed delight about the convention, which showed a united party and emphasized national security. Those surveyed gave the convention and its candidate high marks:

Kerry's acceptance speech Thursday was rated as "excellent" by 26%, a more positive response than Bush got in 2000. A 44% plurality said the Democrats were "about right" in criticizing Bush; 30% said they went too far.

Views of Kerry's personal characteristics and leadership improved; views of Bush didn't change much. Bush's edge in handling terrorism was shaved to 12 points from 18. In a switch, Kerry now is trusted more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief, by 51%-46%.

Kerry's military service is seen as a plus. A 52% majority says it would help him be an effective president. More than one in four say it makes them more likely to vote for him.

[Drbio]

Kind of surprising. Even Bush's campaign manager thought the dimocraps would surge up by about 5-10%. This bodes well for Bush who will undoubtedly surge during the RNC.

[u2sarajevo]

I don't know Doc. Conventional wisdom would say that is true, but looking at the results of post-DNC polls I think it might be that the political bases have become entrenched. I would not be surprised if Bush's numbers don't increase much.

I was expecting Kerry to have double digit leads after the "somewhat" successful convention.

[Drbio]

Save some scandal coming to light, I don't see any way that Bush doesn't surge ahead after the RNC.

[Mavdog]

Originally posted by: u2sarajevo
I don't know Doc. Conventional wisdom would say that is true, but looking at the results of post-DNC polls I think it might be that the political bases have become entrenched. I would not be surprised if Bush's numbers don't increase much.

I was expecting Kerry to have double digit leads after the "somewhat" successful convention.

IMHO you nailed it U2, there is such a (relatively) small number of undecideds it's hard to get any "bounce". The two side's support seems to be solid, the election will be won by who can convince the majority of this 4% to 6% to go their way.

well, that and who gets their supporters energized to go to the voting booths in November..

[mavsman55]

Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention

^ This picture is the reason why.

[chumdawg]

Democratic leaders have expressed delight about the convention, which showed a united party and emphasized national security.

This simply says it all. The Democrats came into their convention--and frankly, into the general campaign--with a great deal of fear. They feared that they stood no chance of standing on the same stage with Bush when it came to war and terror. And they feared that all the various interest groups that they have mortgaged their party to would each sound a strong voice and in the process drown out any clear message they could hope to put forward.

So their delight? They are simply delighted that they didn't do themselves a ton of harm. The Dems this year remind me of a Bill Parcells offense. Just get some guy to drive the bus. Control the clock. Don't make any big mistakes. And hope the other team does something to get itself beat.

[sturm und drang]

I think we all know the nation is more polarized than ever. I read an article somewhere last week that said the percent of undecided voters is at its lowest ever.

I wasn't surprised there wasn't a bounce after the DNC, and think the Republicans will see a similarly muted reaction. Frankly, I think voters' minds are already made up.

[kg_veteran]

Bumped.

It appears that the voters aren't quite as entrenched or polarized as originally thought.

[LRB]

Originally posted by: kg_veteran
Bumped.

It appears that the voters aren't quite as entrenched or polarized as originally thought.

Well at least Kerry is doing something positive for America. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

It hit 10 points today according ABC. I bet liberals everywhere are changing their underwear right about now.