The Minutes Situation at the 1, 2, and 3

[Finley4ever]

After Dallas traded for Harris and Stackhouse and we thought they would still be keeping Steve Nash, most people wanted Stackhouse out because there simply weren't enough minutes for him. Then after Nash left, some people started to think that it would be okay to keep Stack because there would only be five people sharing minutes at the swingman positions. However, in the days following the Terry trade, the sentiment again was that one of the swingmen had to go and Stack was the odd man out. Now, a month after acquiring Terry, the mood has seemed to change randomly to people wanting to give Stackhouse a chance, which I have nothing against, except that I don't think that there is any way to give everyone the minutes that they deserve.

Let's assume that Finley, Terry, Daniels, Stackhouse, Harris, and Howard are the only ones to get minutes at the 1, 2, and 3 and that none of them will play any minutes at the 4. That means that there are 144 minutes to go around. So how many minutes should we expect each of them to get next year?

Finley- People have been clamoring for reduced minutes for Fin for years, but it hasn't really happened. His minutes per game have dropped slightly over the past 4 years, but only slightly and he still played 38 minutes per game last year. I don't see Nellie as being able to cut his minutes to drastically, so I think he will get at least 35 minutes.

Terry- He hasn't played fewer than 37 minutes per game since his rookie season, but he also never had a decent backup. In Dallas, I could dee his minutes getting cut with Harris and Daniels to back him up. Nash played only 33 MPG due to condidtioning, so I think Terry will get at least that much, but probably more like 35.

Daniels- It is tough to predict Daniels' minutes next year. Near the end of last year, he averaged 40+ minutes per game, but in those games he had to much more point than he should this year. With the contract Dallas gave him, he has to get at least 30 minutes per game.

Harris- He seems most likely to be squeezed out of minutes since he is a rookie. For the purposes of this discussion, I will put him at 15 MPG, which is actually unprecedentedly low for a rookie point of his draft status.

Howard- Howard got really inconsistent minutes last year. Some games he would get 15 minutes, others he would get 35. I think he will get at least 24 minutes per game this year.

Stackhouse- Coming off of an injury makes it difficult to figure out how many minutes per game he will get. Based on past performances, he should get about 28 minutes per game this year.

Now, if you add up all of my lowest estimates of deserved minutes, the result is 167 minutes, which is 23 minutes over the maximum. I can think of four solutions to the problem:

Solution 1
Nellie could slide Howard over to the power forward spot for about ten minutes per game behind Dirk and cut everyone else's minutes slightly. Howard is the longest and best defensively of the bunch, so he sould hande the 4 better than them, though I still wouldn't be comfortable with him there too much. Also, most people are against small ball so this is probably not the best idea.

Solution 2
Reduce everyone's minutes by about 10-15%. I don't like this solution because it is the most likely to lead griping about minutes and it doesn't allow players to get into a good rhythm because there is too much substitution. I don't think that cutting a better player's minutes to satisfy another player is a good strategy, but I do not think it would work to cut back any of the swingmen to roleplayer status.

Solution 3
Move one of the players for nothing. The only one this really works for is Stackhouse because Finley's contract is too big, Howard has too much potential, etc. I like the idea of trading him for a draft pick or maybe even a roleplayer to be a backup forward or a shooter off the bench. However, this would mean taking back much less value than he is worth.

Solution 4
Package two or more for a star. The possibilities are numerous here, such as Stack and Howard for R. Lewis; Terry, Stack, and maybe Howard for Kidd or B. Davis. The biggest priority would be to get a big small forward as I know many here suggest very often or get a star point guard (which I'm not a big fan of).

My preference would be one of the last two, but I think most likely is a combination of the first two. Anyone else have ideas for solving the glut or am I the only one that still thinks there is a problem?

[grndmstr_c]

My bet at the start of the season would be something like this:

Terry (34)/ Quis (10)/ Harris (4)
Quis (18)/ Stack (28)/ Fin (2)
Fin (30)/ Josh (18)

As the season progresses I'd expect to see more of Harris and less of Quis at the point, which is when the real minute crunch will begin. At that point the coaching staff should have a better idea of how guys are fitting into the system, and whoever's lagging behind will see their minutes slip a bit. Fin might be the only swing man averaging 30+ minutes by the end of the season.

As for the possible solutions, I don't like solution 1 (Josh at the 4 is a 2 mpg changeup at most), solution 2 is pretty much what I'm suggesting, and solution 3 would be such a big mistake that I have trouble understanding why it gets suggested so often. As for #4, I'd only really be interested in a deal like that if it were for an upgrade at one of the swing positions. I like our point guard rotation even if there are some question marks with it, and the only legit upgrades that get bandied about (Davis/Kidd) are distressingly injury-prone and have monster contracts that I'd be hesitant to take on with Harris on the team. Get me a Lewis, Artest, Marion, VC or the like on a fair deal, though, and I'll jump on it.

[rakesh.s]

i've suggested no.3 already but i've also been told that i was wrong

beats me..i still think there are too many 2 guards on this team and bringing terry in only made it worse...okay they got rid of walker but howard imo needs to see 30+ mins/game...his offensive rebounding will sorely be missed if they trade him or bench him

like i said, the only thing that worries me is that the mavs are fielding a starting five(if howard is on the bench) where the players can be all stars at their positions...this has never ever worked before and role players are needed, but hell if it is ultimately the undoing of nellie i am happy..this team isn't going anywhere with him coaching it

i think this is what i had originally suggested assuming finley or stack are gone as per option 3

1:terry(30), harris(18)
2:finley/stackhouse(30), daniels(18)
3:howard(30), daniels(18)

[Finley4ever]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c
My bet at the start of the season would be something like this:

Terry (34)/ Quis (10)/ Harris (4)
Quis (18)/ Stack (28)/ Fin (2)
Fin (30)/ Josh (18)

As the season progresses I'd expect to see more of Harris and less of Quis at the point, which is when the real minute crunch will begin. At that point the coaching staff should have a better idea of how guys are fitting into the system, and whoever's lagging behind will see their minutes slip a bit. Fin might be the only swing man averaging 30+ minutes by the end of the season.

As for the possible solutions, I don't like solution 1 (Josh at the 4 is a 2 mpg changeup at most), solution 2 is pretty much what I'm suggesting, and solution 3 would be such a big mistake that I have trouble understanding why it gets suggested so often. As for #4, I'd only really be interested in a deal like that if it were for an upgrade at one of the swing positions. I like our point guard rotation even if there are some question marks with it, and the only legit upgrades that get bandied about (Davis/Kidd) are distressingly injury-prone and have monster contracts that I'd be hesitant to take on with Harris on the team. Get me a Lewis, Artest, Marion, VC or the like on a fair deal, though, and I'll jump on it.

I like your minute distribution and it seems to be pretty close to the consensus, but I don't think it is likely because I don't see Nellie cutting Finley and Josh's minutes that much or playing Harris so little. Harris seems to have been lost in the shuffle lately and I hardly ever hear anyone talk about him anymore, but he has a chance to be very good next year. I think it is likely that he will deserve 20 or more minutes per game, even though there isn't time to give it to him. If he plays like Josh or Marquis did last year, would anyone still be satisfied giving him under 15 minutes a game?

The reason that I like solution 3 is that Stackhouse is still a risk. He is coming off of a pretty serious injury and we have no idea how he will fit with the team. Personally, I don't think low percentage shooters are effective on this team, even if they are capable of getting to the line. So I think that if you can get a first round pick for him, it has the additional advatage of clearing a roster spot and giving more playing time to others. If you can get a solid 3-4, 4-5, or a defensive stopper then I think that person would fit better on the team. I have always been a proponent of having roleplayers surrounding 2-3 stars, not trying to fit as many stars on a team as possible.

[WildBill]

Terry 36/ Harris 12/ Quis 0
Stackhouse 36/ Quis 12/ Fin 0
Finley 36/ Howard 12 / Stack 0

The third string only plays in case of injury or fowl trouble.

Unfortunately, because of the minute crunch Quis, Howard and Harris will have low minutes. They are the unproven, even though everyone fell in love with Quis after half a year of solid work.

The good thing is that when one gets injured, even slightly, there is room for the others to expand their minutes. No reason to toughen up and risk further injury. Another good thing is that on back to back nights, the minutes could also be redistributed.

[Chiwas]

We shouldn't forget that there are still some 8 minutes available for the 4. I don't know if Nellie will choose a center to fill them, but a extended small ball might look very attractive to him. If our 6 center backups struggle, we might see Howard getting them.

[sike]

first off, good post Finley4ever...

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c
My bet at the start of the season would be something like this:
Terry (34)/ Quis (10)/ Harris (4)
Quis (18)/ Stack (28)/ Fin (2)
Fin (30)/ Josh (18)

Assuming that Harris does not completely suck, he will get far more PT than four a game. They have pretty much said he is the Point of the future, they will want to give the future a chance to grow....

JT32/Harris10/Daniels 4....I think they are going to give the kid a chance to play with the big boys...he needs 10 a game at least
Quis 22/ Stack 26...this is the most confusing spot...I think a lot of the PT distribution will depend on who is playing well at the time
Fin 32/ JHo 16...I don't see Finley playing less than 32...though I would love to see JHo play more I just don't see Nellie doing that
after preseason we will have a better idea most likely..

[DubOverdose]

I'm sure Nellie will try a small ball line up with mostly slashers (Howard, Daniels, Stackhouse, Devin?, DJ Benga?), and probably Finley, no Dirk. This would allow him to have a good scoring, athletic line up out on the court when Dirk is resting.

[dalmations202]

I have a feeling that #2 will probably be the option that they take, with someone - probably Howard- not getting the minutes that he deserves.

Terry (30), Harris (18)
Daniels (24), Stackhouse (24)
Finley (32), Howard (16)
Nowitzki (38), Booth/Henderson (10)
Dampier (30), Bradley (10), Rooks (8)

Just my guess, but this is what I am expecting.
Daniels, Stackhouse, and Howard will all think they are not getting enough minutes.

IMO,
The best idea is #4. A (2 for 1) or (3 for 1) deal for a superstar SF. The problem with this idea, is that it takes 2 to make the deal happen. Peja, Kirilenko, Artest, VC, Prince, TMac, Marion, and Lewis would all fit, but only a few of them could work financially.

My personal favorite is Stackhouse/Howard for Peja. This would fill all the "roles" and ways that I have analyzed to beat the Mavericks. It would solve the minute crisis by moving 2 for 1, and leave you with a rotation of Daniels, Fin, Peja at the 2/3. Fin would become the 6th man and be able to support either the 2 or 3 on any given night. Terry could slide into the 2 if Nellie wanted to go small ball, and move Peja to the 4 for 10 a night. If Nellie really wanted to push it, Harris, Terry, Finley, Peja, Nowitzki could really drive an opposing coach crazy. Then go big with Terry, Finley, Peja, Nowitzki, Dampier. Shooting, Slashing, Rebounding, Banging, Half-court, full-court pressure, post-ups, and spot-ups.........all would be available, and Nellie would always have a mismatch.

The future wouldn't look to bleak either, with Harris, Daniels, Dirk, Peja is only a year older than Dirk, Benga, Pavel....Damp will be here for a few years.

I know that Howard is good, But if that opportunity is/can be available...................

[grndmstr_c]

Sike, I don't expect Harris' minutes to stay down low all season. I just wouldn't be surprised to see him brought along slowly at the very beginning. Fully one half of our backcourt rotation is new to the team, and his considerable talent aside, Harris would be the most likely candidate to struggle with making winning decisions early on. Everybody else is either a proven vet who's put up all-star caliber numbers in the past and/or has at least one successful year under their belts playing for Nellie. Nellie won't have to trust Harris with the team's success much in the early going, and the problem of giving the guys enough early-season on court time to really learn to play together (and for Nellie to learn how to use them) becomes a much more managable one with a 5 man rotation of Terry/Quis/Stack/Fin/Josh. With those five you've got 9 different possible combinations you can throw out on the floor; add in Harris to the mix and the number of possible backcourt lineups balloons to 19. Remember that as much as Nellie did come to rely on the two rooks last year, even Josh (who's doesn't play the point, mind you) had to wait until December before he started seeing regular minutes.

Finley4ever, the thing about Stack is that he is (or at least has been) so good at getting to the line that it's really misleading to look at his fg% stats. It's an open question how well he'll be able to take advantage of the space the Mavs' offense provides but his scoring efficiency is easily high enough, and his manner of contribution important enough, to justify giving him a chance. Sure, we could trade him now for the scraps he'd be able to fetch, but we'd be much better off waiting to see how he fits and how much he can play his trade value up (and it's almost a certainty that he'll be able to improve his stock if he's healthy). Personally, I'd be extremely reluctant to trade him for anything less than an overpaid but well-fitting role player and a mid first-rounder, and even then I'd only do it if it was clear that he wasn't a fit on the team (eg., putting up decent numbers, but bogging down the offense ala Toine), or simply wasn't necessary, (eg., if Quis was giving us consistent all-star caliber production at SG and Fin's health was holding up).

[dalmations202]

I'd be extremely reluctant to trade him for anything less than an overpaid but well-fitting role player and a mid first-rounder

Who?

[grndmstr_c]

Who?

Stack. Or do you mean who might this role-player be?

[dalmations202]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c

Stack. Or do you mean who might this role-player be?

Who would the role player be, that you would trade Stack for?

I haven't seen many that would be worth it to move him.

[grndmstr_c]

Who would the role player be, that you would trade Stack for?

I haven't seen many that would be worth it to move him.

Without getting too much into considerations about what sorts of trades would and would not be realistic options, a guy like Shane Battier is the sort you'd like to target, IMO. SF with good size and shooting range. Strong on D, solid on the boards, not a go-to guy, accustomed (after last year at least) to getting ~25 mpg off the bench. Of course, his salary is such that a straight up deal wouldn't be possible, but if you were going to go for a step down talent-wise, he's the sort you'd look at.

[dalmations202]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c

Without getting too much into considerations about what sorts of trades would and would not be realistic options, a guy like Shane Battier is the sort you'd like to target, IMO. SF with good size and shooting range. Strong on D, solid on the boards, not a go-to guy, accustomed (after last year at least) to getting ~25 mpg off the bench. Of course, his salary is such that a straight up deal wouldn't be possible, but if you were going to go for a step down talent-wise, he's the sort you'd look at.

I just don't see them moving Stack for Battier. Actually, I don't see Memphis making the trade either.....although it would help their team dramatically, and take much pressure off Pau.

I don't see it happening though because Nellie will want that instant offense from the bench, and if he doesn't get a stud SF (moving Fin to the bench), then Stack will be that offense coming from the bench.

Also, I don't see any moves with Memphis taking place, because of the same division.

[grndmstr_c]

Dalm, I didn't say I expected it to happen. Remember, I started off in this thread voicing my displeasure with the suggestion that we should make a talent-loss trade for Stack. My point was simply that if circumstances did justify such a trade that Battier would be pretty close to the prototype of what I'd want out of it.

[sike]

Sike, I don't expect Harris' minutes to stay down low all season. I just wouldn't be surprised to see him brought along slowly at the very beginning.

agreed

Fully one half of our backcourt rotation is new to the team, and his considerable talent aside, Harris would be the most likely candidate to struggle with making winning decisions early on.

followed closely by daniels and howard if last season is any indicator...Harris may actually be a better decision maker at this point because of playing point in college so long

Everybody else is either a proven vet who's put up all-star caliber numbers in the past and/or has at least one successful year under their belts playing for Nellie.

agreed...this is a call back to your first point that Harris will most likely start with fewer numbers

Nellie won't have to trust Harris with the team's success much in the early going, and the problem of giving the guys enough early-season on court time to really learn to play together (and for Nellie to learn how to use them) becomes a much more managable one with a 5 man rotation of Terry/Quis/Stack/Fin/Josh. With those five you've got 9 different possible combinations you can throw out on the floor; add in Harris to the mix and the number of possible backcourt lineups balloons to 19. Remember that as much as Nellie did come to rely on the two rooks last year, even Josh (who's doesn't play the point, mind you) had to wait until December before he started seeing regular minutes.

to this I reply with the all too generic "lets wait and see"...the kid might pick up the system and then again, he might just be a rook. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[grndmstr_c]

Harris may actually be a better decision maker at this point because of playing point in college so long

Unless I'm mistaken, Harris is relatively new to the point. I believe he was recently converted from SG and only has maybe one full year of collegiate experience at the point (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, though - I'm not an avid follower of college ball so I'm just going on admittedly foggy memories of draft reports). But I think you're selling Quis' decision making at the point short. In the minutes he logged at point last year he averaged 8.8 assists and 2.5 TO's per 48 minutes. That a/to ratio is better than what Steve did last year (though Steve's assists totals were considerably better). Not that Quis is/was perfect, but I think we'd all be extremely happy if Harris is putting up a 3.5 a/to ratio by the end of the season, much less at the start.

[sike]

you got me on the Harris college thing...totally clueless as well...

But I think you're selling Quis' decision making at the point short. In the minutes he logged at point last year he averaged 8.8 assists and 2.5 TO's per 48 minutes. That a/to ratio is better than what Steve did last year (though Steve's assists totals were considerably better). Not that Quis is/was perfect, but I think we'd all be extremely happy if Harris is putting up a 3.5 a/to ratio by the end of the season, much less at the start.

just watching Daniels play last year, it would seem that dispite your numbers, he is no point(the per 48min numbers can be deceiving). He loves to be the guy to drive in and take the shot, not the guy to dish it off...could that change??...sure...will it??...who knows? Also this is proved by how often he took the shot when it should have gone to another guy...Dirk and Fin missed out on many open 10-15 footers because Daniels was more apt to take the off balance leaner in the lane shooting over or around a couple defenders....now, to be fair, he made quite a few crazy shots...but that does not change the fact that they should have gone to the open guy...all this makes him much more efficient at the 2 than the 1...Harris(I hope) will be molded into much more of a point than Daniels...

[grndmstr_c]

They're not my numbers, Sike. They're his numbers.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

I do agree with you to some extent, though. Part of the reason Quis' TO's were low was because when he would press, he'd usually press with his scoring as opposed to his ball distribution (which is the side to which Nash would usually err). In that respect, his instincts as a point were not ideal. Still, 8.8 assists per 48 minutes with a 3.5 a/to ratio is a number lots of teams would gladly take from their point guards (for reference, the average number of assists the Mavs gave up to opponent points last year was 8.7 per 48 minutes with a 3 a/to ratio), especially their backup point guard. I'm not saying we should start Quis at point, or play him heavy minutes there, just arguing that his stats don't support the unwillingness to give him most of the backup point guard minutes to start the season when the next guy on the depth chart is 21 and has yet to play a single game in the NBA.

[sike]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c
They're not my numbers, Sike. They're his numbers.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

I do agree with you to some extent, though. Part of the reason Quis' TO's were low was because when he would press, he'd usually press with his scoring as opposed to his ball distribution (which is the side to which Nash would usually err). In that respect, his instincts as a point were not ideal. Still, 8.8 assists per 48 minutes with a 3.5 a/to ratio is a number lots of teams would gladly take from their point guards (for reference, the average number of assists the Mavs gave up to opponent points last year was 8.7 per 48 minutes with a 3 a/to ratio), especially their backup point guard. I'm not saying we should start Quis at point, or play him heavy minutes there, just arguing that his stats don't support the unwillingness to give him most of the backup point guard minutes to start the season when the next guy on the depth chart is 21 and has yet to play a single game in the NBA.

to this I reply with the all too generic "lets wait and see"...the kid might pick up the system and then again, he might just be a rook. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]
My thought is, you spent the fifth pick in the draft on him...lets see what hes got....I understand your thoughts on Daniels though.

[dirk2003]

I wish we could have signed Eric Williams this offseason. He would have been cheap and a good addition. He is a tall SF who plays excellent defense and is a great locker room guy.

[sike]

Originally posted by: dirk2003
I wish we could have signed Eric Williams this offseason. He would have been cheap and a good addition. He is a tall SF who plays excellent defense and is a great locker room guy.

03, if they had signed him...the 2/3 spot would be even more clogged than it currently is!..

[rakesh.s]

Originally posted by: dirk2003
I wish we could have signed Eric Williams this offseason. He would have been cheap and a good addition. He is a tall SF who plays excellent defense and is a great locker room guy.

idk about that..

every time i've seen him play, he's always wearing those bulky knee and elbow pads and appeared to be really really slow

i think the team needs to decide what kind of ball they're going to play..the way the team is set up now, they need to switch to a half court offense where dirk or dampier get the ball every possession in the post and then kick it out.....let dirk,damp,daniels,howard all crash the offensive boards