Game Winning Shots - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

jthig32 · 02-09-2009, 05:51 PM

82 games has an interesting study on game winning shots up.

Link here.

I don't have time to copy/paste or summarize all of it, so check it out for yourself.

Suffice to say, Dirk hits big shots, despite some people swearing to the contrary.

<insert UD's favorite pic here>

alby · 02-09-2009, 05:52 PM

Steve Francis?

u2sarajevo · 02-09-2009, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alby

Steve Francis?

From that page, above where the table is listed: "So we're looking at five full regular and playoff seasons, with additionally the current 08-09 season so far."

alby · 02-09-2009, 06:07 PM

I know. It's still amazing that Stevie is on there.

tcat075 · 02-09-2009, 06:42 PM

Looking on the 08-09 clutch players.

Dirk is obviously pretty high in scoring, but what I found interesting is that Barea was above anyone on the Mavericks besides Dirk and Jet in scoring (not Bass, not Kidd). He had not a missed a 3PT in "clutch" time, although he may have only taken that game winner, which would make him 1/1.

Kidd, on the other hand, averages 4.5 steals in clutch time per 48 (2nd to only Trevor Ariza) and shoots 63.6% from 3s. 8th in assists per 48 in clutch situations.

Bass was in the top 20 in rebounds in clutch times per 48, with 14.6. Also shot 75% in clutch situations.

Josh Howard, believe it or not, has the largest +/- in clutch time, with +41, +1 more than Lebron. Guess who's 3rd on that list? Brandon Bass, with a +37.

Interestingly, Dirk, Kidd, Jet and Barea are all in the top 20 as well, so that kind of puts a damper on the Howard stat (who averages merely 0.4 points per 48 in clutch situations than Jason Kidd).

That's 6 Mavs in the top 20 +/- in clutch situations. Cavs only have 3, LAL only have 3, Boston only has 3, Denvers and Hornets only have 2, and Spurs have 1.

Josh also has not missed a FT in clutch situations. I'm going to blame that on the fact he's taken maybe 2 FT's in clutch situations...

Bayliss · 02-09-2009, 07:04 PM

The only problem with it is this:

It should not be deemed game winning shots. They are including shots a player hits even when the opponent comes down the floor and hits a shot as well. To steal a line from The Princess Bridde.. I don't think that word means what they think it means.

jthig32 · 02-09-2009, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bayliss

The only problem with it is this:

It should not be deemed game winning shots. They are including shots a player hits even when the opponent comes down the floor and hits a shot as well. To steal a line from The Princess Bridde.. I don't think that word means what they think it means.

That's semantics.

If you're shooting a shot in the last 24 seconds to take the lead, you're shooting for the game. The other team may come back and make a shot on top of yours, but that doesn't reduce the clutchness that was required to make your shot.

Just because everyone forgets about it doesn't mean it wasn't significant.

Bayliss · 02-09-2009, 07:31 PM

Quote:

That's semantics.

If you're shooting a shot in the last 24 seconds to take the lead, you're shooting for the game. The other team may come back and make a shot on top of yours, but that doesn't reduce the clutchness that was required to make your shot.

Just because everyone forgets about it doesn't mean it wasn't significant.

I agree with the line of reasoning. Dirk made a clutch as hell shot against the Spurs in Game 5. But he wasn't rewarded because they called the phantom foul.

Dirk is a lot more clutch than people realize. The problem is everyone associates him with one moment. When you think of Jordan's clutchness, what springs to mind? It has to be the shot over Ehlo, or the shot over Russell or the j at NC. Bar none. But no one remembers the misses.

Dirk suffers from the opposite effect. Everyone points out the free throw yet no one remembers the clutch shot over Shaq in the Finals, the clutch shot over Quentin Richardson against Ph, the shot over Marion, the shot over Bowen, the shot over the entire Grizzlies, the shot over Bonner, the shot over Kaman, and this year the shot over Reggie Evans...

But why deem it gamewinners when it isn't? That defeats the purpose of the nname. If you aren't going to hold to a strict definition then the name should not so strict.

SeriousSummer · 02-09-2009, 07:31 PM

Looks like Flip Murray is the guy the Mavs need for those situations.

Popeye · 02-09-2009, 07:31 PM

What i got from that article is that the ability to hit last second shots is about the single most overrated thing in the NBA. How many times have we heard that the mavs need to trade Dirk for a player like Lebron or Kobe who can make the clutch shots to win -- well, they're 34% and 25% respectively.

I think these stats are pretty telling overall. I wish they would filter out the desperation heaves (maybe take out shots from further than 30 feet out), but overall, this is probably a pretty good sample. I do think superstars should "defer" to other player's more down the stretch, even though the fans/media would probably criticize them if they did.

Underdog · 02-09-2009, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

Underdog · 02-09-2009, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

...or were you referring to THIS one?

Rogue · 02-10-2009, 07:08 AM

kidd's game-tieing shot versus bulls was more valuable that most of those winning shots IMO.

bernardos70 · 02-10-2009, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Good to see the American flag...... on a completely flat, unwrinkled surface.

nikeball · 02-10-2009, 01:23 PM

Do yall believe there is a difference in between taking a last second shot when you are down 1/2 points or when the game is tied?

Psychologically / Mentally speaking...

Underdog · 02-10-2009, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikeball

Do yall believe there is a difference in between taking a last second shot when you are down 1/2 points or when the game is tied?

Psychologically / Mentally speaking...

The physics are the same, but a missed shot during a tie doesn't lose the game like a missed shot when you're down...

I'd imagine it would be psychologically stressful for most players in the NBA - not Dirk or JET, but most players...

nikeball · 02-10-2009, 01:33 PM

That is my friend's argument. That those stats need to have a breakdown for that. Because there is a big psychological difference. One you go to OT and the other you lose.

I don't feel that way. In basketball, towards the end of a game..many plays happen on improvisation where you don't have time to think about that stuff. No matter what you are just trying to score.

But either way there are way too many variables to study this. And I am guessing in this study the notion of ceteris paribus applies.

fluid.forty.one · 02-10-2009, 03:28 PM

"proud asian-american"

I wish it showed who makes which tags because I would rep the crap out of this person.

LonghornDub · 02-10-2009, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikeball

That is my friend's argument. That those stats need to have a breakdown for that. Because there is a big psychological difference. One you go to OT and the other you lose.

I don't feel that way. In basketball, towards the end of a game..many plays happen on improvisation where you don't have time to think about that stuff. No matter what you are just trying to score.

But either way there are way too many variables to study this. And I am guessing in this study the notion of ceteris paribus applies.

Yeah, I'm not sure how much it affects players. It affects fans, but my bet is that athletes in the heat of the moment don't really have time to think about that sorta stuff.

TheMaverick · 02-12-2009, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alby

Steve Francis?

Yeah, that was really surprising. The real Steve Franchise is Steve Novak anyways.