2018 NBA Draft

[hayth.james.g]

Bamba is really starting to put it all together. Watching game evolve these past few weeks has been encouraging.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

Bamba is really starting to put it all together. Watching game evolve these past few weeks has been encouraging.

He absolutely BEASTED today.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

Bamba is really starting to put it all together. Watching game evolve these past few weeks has been encouraging.

Wow. 12-13 FTs today. Impressive.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

ORL let one slip away in IND. Disappointing.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

None of the other bottom feeders pulled out a W tonight, but on the brightside, we're essentially tied for the worst record in the West!

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Nets +2.0 (12th hardest schedule)
Grizzlies +1.5 (24th hardest schedule)
Phoenix +1.0 (6th hardest schedule)
Dallas === (27th hardest schedule)
Kings -0.5 (5th hardest schedule)
Orlando -1.0 (25th hardest schedule)
Hawks -1.5 (14th hardest schedule)

We are going to have to tank real hard to get out of this alive. 33 Games left and 3.5 Games separate the #1 and #7. Mavs have the easiest schedule of all of the bottom 7 teams. Suns have the 6th hardest schedule left and are only 1 game back. Grizz going full tank despite the easy schedule with Conley out.

Mavs are on pace for 26 wins this year. Last year 26 wins was good for the 3rd worst record in the league.

I'm a little nervous too, but as Underdog said "it's not tanking if you're just not good enough to win"

Here's a better question. Which teams that you listed worry you the most?

ATL is just awful. They really, really suck. I worry about them. Sacramento worries me too because they're trying to tank & aren't very good either, but at least they have some young talent on their squad. Memphis is now a real threat too. Phoenix is another concern too because they're trying to tank too.

[mac222b]

Yeah I think we suck but not as much as those other teams mentioned. I’m not getting my hopes up and will be pleasantly surprised if we finish 5th worst. They were terrible at tanking last season. We were just lucky Dennis fell to us

[EricaLubarsky]

The feeling in my gut is that we still beat the Nets but Suns and Grizz will beat us. We’ll end up 6th worst and draft 7th overall after they draw the balls

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Yeah I think we suck but not as much as those other teams mentioned... They were terrible at tanking last season. We were just lucky Dennis fell to us

I understand the fear because being bad at tanking can be an organizational decision. On the other hand, the Mavs can realistically only be 2-3 games out of the worst record race a month from now (or closer), and last year they were closer to an outside shot at the playoffs and further away from a shot at the #1 overall pick. Hopefully that will influence the Mavs to be better at tanking this year.

I really hope the Mavs can drop Monday's game to the Heat because they've got a streak of very winnable games coming up before the All Star break. Really want them to drop Wednesday's game @ Phoenix, then @ SAC, @ LAC, @ GSW, vs LAL, @ HOU, and vs SAC.

I had the Mavs with 19 or 20 wins at the break. Had them dropping these last 3 games. We're sitting at 16 wins. If they could somehow only get 2 wins in this stretch, then I can't see any way the Mavs are in a position to fight their way out of the top 5 worst records in the league. They'd be 18-40 with only 24 games left in the season. Say from there they go 9-15, that's only 27 wins. 27 wins is going to be good enough for a top 5 worst record in the league this year. But, what about this team says we can sustain a .375 winning pct over 24 games?

On the other hand, if the Mavs knock off MIA, beat PHX, take down SAC twice & steal a game from the Lakers or Clippers, say they do something like that and are sitting at 21-37 or 22-36 at the break, then I'm going to be very worried about the Mavs picking in that 8th to 9th range that so many other posters have talked about fearing.

[EricaLubarsky]

Suns and Kings games are going to be crucial and almost impossible to lose

[sefant77]

New mock from nbadraft.net. Jackson rising

Ayton
Bagley
Porter
Jackson
Trae
Doncic
Bamba

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by sefant77

New mock from nbadraft.net. Jackson rising

Ayton
Bagley
Porter
Jackson
Trae
Doncic
Bamba

Raef was years ahead of his time. Centers that can hit the three are going to be huge

[saclare]

No good otter movement yet this weekend, but very promising ball being played by some of the prospects being mocked top 10. Bamba is a beast, Knox breaking out, Wendell Carter rising, Jackson and the Bridges steady, Bagley is a beast, Ayton pedestrian but he's fine.

[Underdog]

PODCAST: Ayton, Bamba talk (and more)
https://www.thestepien.com/2018/01/2...s-ayton-bamba/

Jaren Jackson and Miles Bridges
https://www.thestepien.com/2018/01/2...miles-bridges/

Kevin Knox and Mikal Bridges
https://www.thestepien.com/2017/12/1...bridges-stuff/

Collin Sexton and Trae Young
https://www.thestepien.com/2017/12/2...on-trae-young/

Luka Doncic and Michael Porter
https://www.thestepien.com/2017/11/2...doncic-porter/

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Just watched the 2H of Villanova & Marquette. Holy cow is Mikal Bridges impressive. The guy is long, very agile, very disruptive in the passing lanes, high basketball IQ & he can knock down the outside shot too. Drool.

[tap2390]

My Mavs draft board

1) Bagley (hard to compare him to someone -- Ben Simmons comes to mind)
2) Doncic (I'm starting to buy into the hype)
3) Ayton (you wonder how he'll fit in to today's game, but ultimately his presence in the half-court offense is too much to pass on)
4) Jackson Jr. (over Bamba because he's displayed more skill on offense while flashing some of the same game altering defense (and better lateral speed on perimeter when switching))
5) Porter Jr. (if the back checks out you take him over Bamba because you know Porter can average 20 a game in the league)
6) Bamba (questions about bulk and health drive him down)
7) Knox (flashed some of the offensive skill that makes him so dangerous vs. WV)
8) Mikal (best defender in NCAA;likely a role player, but one every team needs)
9) Miles (tweener, but hitting 90% of FTs this season which he'll need to do to continue to drive in the NBA)


off the board --> Wendell Carter (Jahlil Okafor redux, not made for today's NBA); R. Williams (too raw; can't hit FTs; undersized); Point Guards

[EricaLubarsky]

Bagley is pretty easy to compare. KG meets Sheed

Don’t really see Simmons at all.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Some people think there's not considerable different between how Bagley III and Carter Jr project at the next level. Which those people tend to think Carter Jr is underrated, but it does suggest Bagley III is overrated.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by tap2390

My Mavs draft board

1) Bagley (hard to compare him to someone -- Ben Simmons comes to mind)
2) Doncic (I'm starting to buy into the hype)
3) Ayton (you wonder how he'll fit in to today's game, but ultimately his presence in the half-court offense is too much to pass on)
4) Jackson Jr. (over Bamba because he's displayed more skill on offense while flashing some of the same game altering defense (and better lateral speed on perimeter when switching))
5) Porter Jr. (if the back checks out you take him over Bamba because you know Porter can average 20 a game in the league)
6) Bamba (questions about bulk and health drive him down)
7) Knox (flashed some of the offensive skill that makes him so dangerous vs. WV)
8) Mikal (best defender in NCAA;likely a role player, but one every team needs)
9) Miles (tweener, but hitting 90% of FTs this season which he'll need to do to continue to drive in the NBA)


off the board --> Wendell Carter (Jahlil Okafor redux, not made for today's NBA); R. Williams (too raw; can't hit FTs; undersized); Point Guards

Honestly, I agree with this outside of I take Porter Jr off my board completely. Can't think of one NBA player who had a discectomy who came back as the same player (granted it's rare for a player this young, so maybe there's more hope for Porter Jr. A 15 year NBA career, probably not tho). Dwight Howard, Rudy Fernandez, Peja Stojakovic, Grand Ma Ma aka Larry Johnson, Brad Daugherty, and Larry Bird are just a few examples of players who were nowhere near their former selves after a herniated disc.

I would also take Bagley III down from my top spot. I would probably slide Mikal Bridges into Porter Jr's spot, and slide Bagley III behind Bamba.

I wanna see more from Knox, and I'm not overly impressed with Miles Bridges. He's definitely undersized.

My list would look something like

Luka Doncic
DeAndre Ayton
Jaren Jackson Jr
Mikal Bridges
Trae Young (he's a special talent too good to pass up if he falls to us)
Marvin Bagley III
Mohamed Bamba

Not sure I really feel strongly about any other players because these are Tier 1 players. Everyone else is in Tier 2 right now imo. Plus, I don't see the Mavs falling out of the top 7 picks.

Kevin Knox, Miles Bridges, Collin Sexton. I'm not sure any of these guys are significantly better than Troy Brown, Lonnie Walker or even Brandon McCoy. I'm also hearing better reports on Wendell Carter Jr than you have.

Overall it's a very good list

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Booker left tonight's game vs HOU with an injury to his left hip/mid-section area. He's scheduled for X-rays in the morning. Sigh... At least the report just says X-rays, if it said MRI, I'd be more worried; although a broken rib or something would be really bad.

On the brightside, if Booker sits & PHX sits more of their vets, then Memphis is in store for a W Monday night. Love it when the fellow bottom feeders face each other!!

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by tap2390

My Mavs draft board


2) Doncic (I'm starting to buy into the hype)

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Booker left tonight's game vs HOU with an injury to his left hip/mid-section area. He's scheduled for X-rays in the morning. Sigh... At least the report just says X-rays, if it said MRI, I'd be more worried; although a broken rib or something would be really bad.

On the brightside, if Booker sits & PHX sits more of their vets, then Memphis is in store for a W Monday night. Love it when the fellow bottom feeders face each other!!

Except we play the Suns on Wednesday for 4th/5th. Without Booker I’m not really sure how we can lose that one. Hanging a win on the Grizz would help slow the fall to 6th, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we were 5th after Wednesday

Doesn't matter what the x-rays say, Booker is probably out at least 10 games if not indefinitely. Mavs may need to up their tanking game.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Except we play the Suns on Wednesday for 4th/5th. Without Booker I’m not really sure how we can lose that one. Hanging a win on the Grizz would help slow the fall to 6th, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we were 5th after Wednesday

Doesn't matter what the x-rays say, Booker is probably out at least 10 games if not indefinitely. Mavs may need to up their tanking game.

I'm gonna say you're a glass is half-empty kinda person. Amirite? lol

Not saying you're wrong, just saying you seem like a pessimist.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I'm gonna say you're a glass is half-empty kinda person. Amirite? lol

Not saying you're wrong, just saying you seem like a pessimist.

Happy to have some fluid, but if we don't ration, that water is running out.

[mac222b]

And yet another key player injured right before we play their team. Unreal.

[mac222b]

If we draft 1-6 I'll be pleasantly surprised. Fully expecting 7 or 8 unless we start to tank in earnest. JJB and Devin sitting is a start. Possible trades in the works? Too much to ask?

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by mac222b

If we draft 1-6 I'll be pleasantly surprised. Fully expecting 7 or 8 unless we start to tank in earnest. JJB and Devin sitting is a start. Possible trades in the works? Too much to ask?

100% agree. I predict we'll end up 6th, which gives us a 34.1% of drafting 7 or 8. It's not really pessimism as much as it's just our track record and theirs.

With 31 games left and Conley and maybe even Booker out for the rest of the season, I find it difficult to believe that we'll be able to out-tank Suns and Grizz unless we develop some injuries or trade away some talent. We're just not as terrible as those teams and we actually have a competent coach and a rookie that can rattle off 15-18 points in a row. We can certainly pull off 3-5, but I think 6 is about as good as we can do and hope the 7-14 teams don't win the lottery so we get bumped down a spot.

Nets +2.0 (17th hardest schedule)
Grizzlies +2.0 (24th hardest schedule)
Phoenix +1.0 (7th hardest schedule)
Dallas === (26th hardest schedule)
Kings -0.5 (10th hardest schedule)
Orlando -1.0 (25th hardest schedule)
Hawks -1.5 (17th hardest schedule)

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

100% agree, but I'm called a pessimist. I predict we'll end up 6th, which gives us a 34.1% of drafting 7 or 8. About a 1 in 3 chance of being bumped down.

With 31 games left and Conley and maybe even Booker out for the rest of the season, I find it difficult to believe that we'll be able to out-tank Suns and Grizz unless we develop some injuries or trade away some talent.

Pessimist!

Maybe after the All-Star break we'll start to see them sit our starters some? One can hope. I'll believe it when I see it though. Give Barnes a couple of well-timed games off, especially against Memphis on the 10th of March. If we lose to them we split the season series. Of course Barnes hit the game winner against them last time, which could come back to haunt...

I'll be pleasantly surprised if we can manage 5th. 6th is probably most likely. Suns and Grizz will be tough to out tank so its going to be the tier of Bulls, Nets, Lakers, Hornets and maybe Jazz we have to out-lose. Should be doable barring any other major injuries for those teams or another 3-4 game winning streak on our part.

[mac222b]

At #6 I'd be thrilled with Bamba and exceedingly happy with Jaren Jackson Jr.
Trae Young would be fun, but confusing. Mikal Bridges would be cool and likely a cornerstone starter but underwhelming in relation to the top 5 or 6. I think he's more Otto Porter than Kawhi, unless he dramatically improves his handle and ability to create. Maybe a better comp is a hyper-charged Robert Covington?

In order to have our choice between Bamba and Jackson Jr. at 6, Porter and Young would have to both go top 5. I'm hoping we pass on Porter if given the chance. Love the skill set but back issues are scary.

[tap2390]

Porter's back injury is scary, but I assume if we take him it's because some of the best orthopedic and neurosurgeons in the nation have seen his medical records and cleared him. If he's clear, he should be in play at #1. That being said, athletes don't traditionally do well with micro-discectomy operations so you definitely want to err on the side of caution.

Please just be as bad as possible Mavs... we want options.

[EricaLubarsky]

I really want a 10-18 pick in addition to our 5-8. There are going to be some amazing talents in that range.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I really want a 10-18 pick in addition to our 5-8. There are going to be some amazing talents in that range.

There really are. This draft seems pretty loaded too. Better at the top than last season and equal or better up until maybe mid to late 20's. 2017 just had crazy depth. Jordan Bell and Jonah Bolden types would've probably gone in the 20's in this one.

Would be amazing if we could even get, say, Cleveland's first round pick. With that and our early second we at least have a punchers chance of moving up for a guy we love in the mid-teens

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by tap2390

Porter's back injury is scary, but I assume if we take him it's because some of the best orthopedic and neurosurgeons in the nation have seen his medical records and cleared him. If he's clear, he should be in play at #1. That being said, athletes don't traditionally do well with micro-discectomy operations so you definitely want to err on the side of caution.

Please just be as bad as possible Mavs... we want options.

I see this not just here on this forum, but everytime Porter Jr comes up on any forum. Everyone says "if the doctors clear him". I had a discectomy in my back, and after surgery, my follow up appointment with my doctor basically said "I'm prescribing you 6 weeks of physical therapy. I have some patients who were runners, and they say running is part of their life they can't give it up. I see half of those patients in here again for another surgery. If I were you, I would not run or jump again."

Technically, I was "cleared" to do whatever I wanted after my 6 weeks of physical therapy. I chose to start swimming instead of running & jumping. Not worth it to me. Herniated discs are incredibly painful & lifestyle altering.

Porter Jr will be cleared by the medical staff. Based on my experience with this, no way he'll ever be the same player again.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

This PHX/MEM game tonight is going to be ugly. I wish I had League Pass, so I could watch two games trying to out tank each other in action.

At least the good news is one of them has to be saddled with the W lol

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Sweet night for the Mavs. We drop a very winnable game vs MIA, and both ATL & MEM pick up Ws

[Magnum_3_Ball]

BIG loss for us tonight. Drops us to 16-35. Critical, CRUCIAL 7 game stretch coming up for us before the All Star break.

Very winnable games coming up vs fellow bottom feeders. @ PHX, @ SAC, vs SAC, VS LAL. The good news is 5 of these next 7 games are on the road, and we're even worse on the road this year. Hard to see the Mavs doing much better than 3-4 on this stretch, given that we also have @ GSW and @ HOU.

We can enter the break at 19-39. Then we'd have 24 games to go. Right now we're a club with a .314 winning percentage. 24 games left (11 home, 13 road). Even if the Mavs don't tank, would we really do much better than 9-15? Say we go 10-14, that's 29-53. 29 wins last year was good enough for the 5th worst record.

However, there's also the possibility the Mavs only have 17 or 18 wins at the break. Let's say they're at 18 wins, and very possible they only win 7 games after the break. I could see the Mavs with 25 wins or less (especially if they get smart & start tanking). 25 wins last year was good enough for the 2nd worst record in the league.

Man oh man, BIG stretch coming up for the Mavs before the All Star break. Let's all get down on our knees Wed night & pray for a Loss to PHX. Sounds like Devin Booker will be back for that one too

[EricaLubarsky]

Lottery watch - Strength of remaining schedule
Grizzlies +3.0 (24th hardest schedule)
Bulls +2.0 (5th hardest schedule)
Nets +2.0 (17th hardest schedule)
Phoenix +1.0 (7th hardest schedule)
Dallas === (26th hardest schedule)
Kings === (10th hardest schedule)
Orlando -0.5 (25th hardest schedule)
Hawks -0.5 (17th hardest schedule)

Mavs move into a tie with Kings for 3/4. Bulls move into the top 8. Grizz pull further away and are now barely in the top 8. 0.5 games from a three way tie for 1/2/3 after Hawks won.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Lottery watch - Strength of remaining schedule
Grizzlies +3.0 (24th hardest schedule)
Bulls +2.0 (5th hardest schedule)
Nets +2.0 (17th hardest schedule)
Phoenix +1.0 (7th hardest schedule)
Dallas === (26th hardest schedule)
Kings === (10th hardest schedule)
Orlando -0.5 (25th hardest schedule)
Hawks -0.5 (17th hardest schedule)

Mavs move into a tie with Kings for 3/4. Bulls move into the top 8. Grizz pull further away and are now barely in the top 8. 0.5 games from a three way tie for 1/2/3 after Hawks won.

Bulls and Nets have the same record 18-32.

Such a pessimist LOL. Barely in the top 8 would mean there's pressure from the 9th team with the worst record. In this case LAL & CHA. Mavs are up 4 games on both of those teams. There's only 31 games left to play (for the Mavs, some of these other teams have 32 or 33 games left). 4 games is a lot to make up in just 31 games; especially when the Mavs are only going to win another 9 to 11 times. Say for the CHI to jump ahead of the Mavs, they'd have to lose so often it'd give wins to teams like BKN, CHA, even ORL & ATL. Somebody would wind up falling behind the Mavs & we'd still stay in the top 8---in all probability.

I can't wait for these next 2 games vs PHX & SAC on the road. This picture could look amazing if the Mavs can manage to drop 1 or both of those games. ATL & ORL have some very winnable games this week. LAL & BKN face each other too!

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Bulls and Nets have the same record 18-32.

Such a pessimist LOL. Barely in the top 8 would mean there's pressure from the 9th team with the worst record. In this case LAL & CHA. Mavs are up 4 games on both of those teams. There's only 31 games left to play (for the Mavs, some of these other teams have 32 or 33 games left). 4 games is a lot to make up in just 31 games; especially when the Mavs are only going to win another 9 to 11 times. Say for the CHI to jump ahead of the Mavs, they'd have to lose so often it'd give wins to teams like BKN, CHA, even ORL & ATL. Somebody would wind up falling behind the Mavs & we'd still stay in the top 8---in all probability.

I can't wait for these next 2 games vs PHX & SAC on the road. This picture could look amazing if the Mavs can manage to drop 1 or both of those games. ATL & ORL have some very winnable games this week. LAL & BKN face each other too!

I think you misread. Mavs aren't barely in the top 8. Grizzlies are. They are only one game ahead of the Lakers and 2 games ahead of the Hornets. One game

I mean, ending up 9 (and drafting 9-11) isn't off the table. If the Mavs pulled out 7-24 with one of the easiest schedules in the league and Grizz went 4-29 (and the rest were equally bad), we could hypothetically do it.

Ending the season 5-6 (and potentially drafting 7-8) is much more likely when you look at injuries, strength of remaining schedule, and current trends. I'd wager $10 that the Suns draft better. Bulls/Nets/Grizz have a chance too, but Suns are almost a lock to.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I think you misread. Mavs aren't barely in the top 8. Grizzlies are. They are only one game ahead of the Lakers and 2 games ahead of the Hornets. One game

I mean, ending up 9 (and drafting 9-11) isn't off the table. If the Mavs pulled out 7-24 with one of the easiest schedules in the league and Grizz went 4-29 (and the rest were equally bad), we could hypothetically do it.

Ending the season 5-6 (and potentially drafting 7-8) is much more likely when you look at injuries, strength of remaining schedule, and current trends. I'd wager $10 that the Suns draft better. Bulls/Nets/Grizz have a chance too, but Suns are almost a lock to.

You're right, I inserted a we in there & read it as Mavs are now barely in the bottom 8.

Ending up 9th isn't off the table. I think one of the reasons I think of you as a pessimist is you list the Mavs could fall to 10th or 11th, if they wind up with the 9th worst record, but you don't mention that they could also still have a top 3 pick.

I'm a gambler, so I'd take action on that Suns bet, but you'd have to lay me odds. I'd take it straight up if the Mavs lose to the Suns on Wed night, but otherwise, I agree with you that the Suns are favored. They're a smarter organization when it comes to tanking & while I cheer my little heart out for the Mavs to lose & finish in that top 3, I know this team isn't smart when it comes to that & they worry about pieces like Barea & Wes and crap that they shouldn't worry about.

On the part in bold, you're missing the part about the others being equally bad. There's a lot of Eastern conference teams in competition with us for the worst record, and they all play each other several more times this season. Somebody has to take those Ws. Grizz can hypothetically jump ahead of us, but somebody in the East is going to fall behind.


Edit: If the Grizz go 4-29 the rest of the way, they'd play at a .121 winning pct rate, which would be the 3rd worst winning pct in NBA history (if you extrapolated it over the course of a full season). Those are the kinda long odds you're talking about when you present these worst case scenarios.

I mean, ideally the Mavs players would just all fail to do anything on Wednesday, fail to score a basket & force the Suns to win. But, the NBA would step in & there would be severe punishment for doing something like that. People believe the NBA league office was involved in Sam Hinkie stepping down in Philly. I think the teams will at least try, they'll be tanking, but they'll back into a couple of wins. I think they'd rather be drafting 2 or 3 spots lower than have the NBA league office come down on them. The NBA league office is very concerned about tanking. That's one of Adam Silver's big concerns.